What Is in Your Output Gap? Unified Framework & Decomposition into Observables

 
Author/Editor: Andrle, Michal
 
Publication Date: May 10, 2013
 
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate
 
Summary: This paper discusses several popular methods to estimate the ‘output gap’. It provides a unified, natural concept for the analysis, and demonstrates how to decompose the output gap into contributions of observed data on output, inflation, unemployment, and other variables. A simple bar-chart of contributing factors, in the case of multi-variable methods, sharpens the intuition behind the estimates and ultimately shows ‘what is in your output gap.’ The paper demonstrates how to interpret effects of data revisions and new data releases for output gap estimates (news effects) and how to obtain more insight into real-time properties of estimators.
 
Series: Working Paper No. 13/105
Subject(s): Production | Economic growth | Economic models

 
English
Publication Date: May 10, 2013
ISBN/ISSN: 9781484399552/2227-8885 Format: Paper
Stock No: WPIEA2013105 Pages: 45
Price:
US$18.00 (Academic Rate:
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