The Role of Domestic and External Shocks in Poland : Results from an Agnostic Estimation Procedure

Author/Editor:

Giang Ho ; Michal Andrle ; Roberto Garcia-Saltos

Publication Date:

October 29, 2013

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

This paper discusses interlinkages between Poland and the euro zone using a simple and agnostic econometric approach. Specifically, we estimate a trend-cycle VAR model using data for real and nominal variables, imposing powerful but uncontroversial assumptions that allow us to identify how external factors affect the evolution of business cycles in Poland in the period 1999-2012. Our results suggest that developments in the euro zone can explain about 50 percent of poland’s output and interest rate business cycle variance and about 25 percent of the variance of inflation.

Series:

Working Paper No. 13/220

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

October 29, 2013

ISBN/ISSN:

9781484337172/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2013220

Price:

$18.00 (Academic Rate:$18.00)

Format:

Paper

Pages:

22

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