After the Boom–Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author/Editor: Bertrand Gruss
Publication Date: August 14, 2014
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate
Summary: After skyrocketing over the past decade, commodity prices have remained stable or eased somewhat since mid-2011—and most projections suggest they are not likely to resume the upward trend observed in the last decade. This paper analyzes what this turn in the commodity price cycle may imply for output growth in Latin America and the Caribbean. The analysis suggests that growth in the years ahead for the average commodity exporter in the region could be significantly lower than during the commodity boom, even if commodity prices were to remain stable at their current still-high levels. Slower-than-expected growth in China represents a key downside risk. The results caution against trying to offset the current economic slowdown with demand-side stimulus and underscore the need for ambitious structural reforms to secure strong growth over the medium term.
Series: Working Paper No. 14/154
Subject(s): Commodity boom | Latin America | Caribbean | China | Commodity prices | Demand | Business cycles | Economic growth

Publication Date: August 14, 2014
ISBN/ISSN: 9781498363518/1018-5941 Format: Paper
Stock No: WPIEA2014154 Pages: 43
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