Spillovers from Global and Regional Shocks to Armenia

Author/Editor:

Knarik Ayvazyan ; Teresa Daban Sanchez

Publication Date:

November 23, 2015

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

Using a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) model, this paper examines the size, geographical sources, and transmission channels of global and regional shocks to the Armenian economy. Results show that Armenian economic activity is strongly influenced by global demand shocks and changes in oil prices, yet relatively immune to financial volatility. Transmission takes place through the Russian and EU economies, remittances, and external borrowing. The role of exports and tourism is low. Russia is key in transforming the potentially negative impact of an increase in oil prices into a positive event, through stronger remittances and exports. Services and construction, which depend significantly on remittances and external borrowing, are the most affected by global and regional shocks.

Series:

Working Paper No. 15/241

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

November 23, 2015

ISBN/ISSN:

9781513590462/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2015241

Price:

$18.00 (Academic Rate:$18.00)

Format:

Paper

Pages:

25

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