Working Papers in full text
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
All
Other research-related activities and publications of the IMF can be found at IMF Research
|
Free Email Notification
Receive emails when we post new
items of interest to you.
Subscribe or
Modify your profile
|
|
|
|
Short-Term Forecasting: Projecting Italian GDP, One Quarter to Two Years Ahead
|
Author/Editor: |
Iacoviello, Matteo |
| Authorized for Distribution: |
August 1, 2001 |
|
Electronic Access: |
Free Full Text (PDF file size is 674KB)
Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file.
|
|
|
|
Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.
|
|
Summary: This paper presents a "bridge model" for short-run (one or two quarters ahead) forecasting of Italian GDP, relying on industrial production and survey indicators as key variables that can help in providing a real-time first GDP estimate. For a one- to two-year horizon, it formulates and estimates a Bayesian VAR (BVAR) model of the Italian economy. Both the "bridge" and the BVAR model can be of great help in supplementing traditional judgmental or structural econometric forecasts. Given their simplicity and their good forecasting power, the framework may be usefully extended to other variables as well as to other countries
|
|
|
|
Series: |
Working Paper No. 01/109 |
|
Subject(s): |
Gross domestic product | Italy | Economic models |
|
Author's keyword(s): |
Forecasting
| Bayesian Vector Autoregressions
| Leading Indicators
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Published: |
|
August 1, 2001 |
|
|
|
|
| |
ISBN/ISSN: |
|
1934-7073 |
|
Format: |
|
Paper |
| |
Stock No: |
|
WPIEA1092001 |
|
Pages: |
|
23 |
| |
Price: |
|
US$15.00
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Price Delivery Note: |
Prepayment required for individual copies. An annual subscription is $375.00 a year. It includes 12 monthly shipments and priority mail delivery. The Stock No. for the subscription is WPEA. |
|
Please address any questions about this title to publications@imf.org.
|
|
