How to order
IMF Publications

Related material:
Balance of Payments Home Page

Working Papers in full text
2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 All


Other research-related activities and publications of the IMF can be found at IMF Research

Free Email Notification

Receive emails when we post new items of interest to you.

Subscribe or Modify your profile



The Impact of Cyclical Factors on the U.S. Balance of Payments

Author/Editor: Kandil, Magda E. | Greene, Joshua E.
Authorized for Distribution: March 1, 2002
Electronic Access: Free Full Text (PDF file size is 1,299KB)
Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file.
 
Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.

Summary: Real GDP growth and real effective exchange rate (REER) appreciation appear cointegrated with the current and financial accounts of the U.S. balance of payments. On this basis, we estimate reduced form equations showing that expected changes and shocks to real GDP, the REER, energy prices, and growth in emerging market economies and other industrial countries explain much of the short-term variation in the U.S. current account balance, with the balance worsening as real GDP, energy prices, and the REER increase. In addition, foreign direct investment rises with real growth, while stock market prices affect the composition of capital inflows.
 
Series: Working Paper No. 02/45
Subject(s): Balance of payments | United States | Capital account | Current account | Financial sector
Author's keyword(s): United States | Balance of Payments | current account | capital and financial account
 
English  
    Published:   March 1, 2002        
    ISBN/ISSN:   1934-7073   Format:   Paper
    Stock No:   WPIEA0452002   Pages:   43
    Price:   US$15.00
       
     
Price Delivery Note: Prepayment required for individual copies. An annual subscription is $375.00 a year. It includes 12 monthly shipments and priority mail delivery. The Stock No. for the subscription is WPEA.
Please address any questions about this title to publications@imf.org.