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How Do Canadian Budget Forecasts Compare with Those of Other Industrial Countries?

Author/Editor: Mühleisen, Martin | Danninger, Stephan | Hauner, David | Krajnyák, Kornélia | Sutton, Bennett
Authorized for Distribution: March 1, 2005
Electronic Access: Free Full Text (PDF file size is 463KB)
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.

Summary: This paper compares Canadian central government budget forecasting with forecasting by other industrial countries. While fiscal forecasting in Canada is governed by one of the strongest institutional frameworks, quantitative analysis suggests that budget projections of macroeconomic and fiscal aggregates have been more cautious than in other countries since the mid-1990s. The relatively volatile macroeconomic environment as well as institutional factors, such as Canada's asymmetric deficit target, have likely contributed to this outcome.
 
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Series: Working Paper No. 05/66
Subject(s): Budgets | Canada | Economic forecasting | Forecasting models
Author's keyword(s): Canada | budget forecasting | fiscal performance | industrial countries | macroeconomic projections
 
English  
    Published:   March 1, 2005        
    ISBN/ISSN:   1934-7073   Format:   Paper
    Stock No:   WPIEA2005066   Pages:   49
    Price:   US$15.00 (Academic Rate: US$15.00 )
       
     
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