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Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Challenges of Population Aging

Author/Editor: Tamirisa, Natalia T. | Faruqee, Hamid
Authorized for Distribution: April 1, 2006
Electronic Access: Free Full Text (PDF file size is 594KB)
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.

Summary: This paper simulates the macroeconomic effects of population aging in a dynamic overlapping generations model of a small open economy. The model is calibrated to data for the Czech Republic, where population aging is proceeding at a pace comparable to that in other advanced countries in Europe. Simulations show that population aging is likely to slow economic growth and improvements in living standards. Although reforms to raise labor force participation and productivity growth can mitigate these adverse effects, they are unlikely to eliminate the need for fiscal reforms. The budget will come under pressure from rising age-related expenditures, and consolidation will be needed to preserve debt sustainability.
 
Series: Working Paper No. 06/95
Subject(s): Aging | Czech Republic | Economic growth | Economic models | Labor policy | Population
Author's keyword(s): Population | aging | simulation | general equilibrium model
 
English  
    Published:   April 1, 2006        
    ISBN/ISSN:   0 / 1934-7073   Format:   Paper
    Stock No:   WPIEA2006095   Pages:   23
    Price:   US$15.00
       
     
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