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Weathering the Storm So Far: The Impact of the 2003-05 Oil Shock on Low-Income Countries

Author/Editor: Dudine, Paolo | John, James | Lewis, Mark | Monasi, Luzmaria | Tadesse, Helaway | Zeuner, Jörg
Authorized for Distribution: July 1, 2006
Electronic Access: Free Full Text (PDF file size is 537KB)
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.

Summary: This paper examines the impact of the 2003-05 oil price increase on the balance of payments positions and IMF financing needs of low-income country oil importers. It finds that stronger exports reflecting favorable global conditions, a compression of oil import volumes due to the pass-through of world prices to domestic consumers, and a large increase in capital inflows helped low-income countries cope with the oil price shock. Preliminary data suggest that reductions in oil import volumes have not harmed growth. While fiscal balances generally improved, quasi-fiscal liabilities may be building. Lower demand for IMF assistance may reflect broader trends, but further oil price increases could put pressure on additional countries in 2006 and beyond.
 
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Series: Working Paper No. 06/171
Subject(s): Oil | Low income developing countries | Balance of payments | Oil prices | Use of Fund resources
Author's keyword(s): Oil | oil shock | balance of payments | adjustment | fiscal | quasi-fiscal | pass-through | low-income country | IMF financing
 
English  
    Published:   July 1, 2006        
    ISBN/ISSN:   0 / 1934-7073   Format:   Paper
    Stock No:   WPIEA2006171   Pages:   33
    Price:   US$15.00 (Academic Rate: US$15.00 )
       
     
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