Working Papers in full text
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
All
Other research-related activities and publications of the IMF can be found at IMF Research
|
Free Email Notification
Receive emails when we post new
items of interest to you.
Subscribe or
Modify your profile
|
|
|
|
U.S. Inflation Dynamics: What Drives Them Over Different Frequencies?
|
Author/Editor: |
Balakrishnan, Ravi | Ouliaris, Sam |
| Authorized for Distribution: |
June 1, 2006 |
|
Electronic Access: |
Free Full Text (PDF file size is 524KB)
Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file.
|
|
|
|
Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.
|
|
Summary: This paper aims to improve the understanding of U.S. inflation dynamics by separating out structural from cyclical effects using frequency domain techniques. Most empirical studies of inflation dynamics do not distinguish between secular and cyclical movements, and we show that such a distinction is critical. In particular, we study traditional Phillips curve (TPC) and new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) models of inflation, and conclude that the long-run secular decline in inflation cannot be explained in terms of changes in external trade and global factor markets. These variables tend to impact inflation primarily over the business cycle. We infer that the secular decline in inflation may well reflect improved monetary policy credibility and, thus, maintaining low inflation in the long run is closely linked to anchored inflation expectations.
|
|
|
|
Order a print copy
|
|
Series: |
Working Paper No. 06/159 |
|
Subject(s): |
Inflation | United States | Monetary policy | Demand | Globalization | Economic models |
|
Author's keyword(s): |
U.S. Inflation | monetary policy credibility |
|
|
|
|
| |
Published: |
|
June 1, 2006 |
|
|
|
|
| |
ISBN/ISSN: |
|
0 / 1934-7073 |
|
Format: |
|
Paper |
| |
Stock No: |
|
WPIEA2006159 |
|
Pages: |
|
27 |
| |
Price: |
|
US$15.00 (Academic Rate: US$15.00 )
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
