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A Bayesian-Estimated Model of InflationTargeting in South Africa

Author/Editor: Harjes, Thomas | Ricci, Luca Antonio
Authorized for Distribution: February 1, 2008
Electronic Access: Free Full Text (PDF file size is 590KB)
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.

Summary: This paper estimates a small dynamic macroeconomic model for the South African economy with Bayesian methods. The model is tailored to assessing the impact of domestic as well as external shocks on inflation within an inflation targeting framework, by incorporating forward-looking behavior of private agents and of the monetary authority. The model is able to display important empirical features of the monetary transmission mechanism that have been found in other studies. It helps to integrate the short-term inflation outlook into a consistent medium-term framework and to design the policy response for various shocks that affect inflation.
 
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Series: Working Paper No. 08/48
Subject(s): Inflation targeting | South Africa | Inflation | Energy prices | Exchange rate instability | Demand
Author's keyword(s): Monetary model; inflation targeting; Bayesian estimation
 
English  
    Published:   February 1, 2008        
            Format:   Paper
    Stock No:   WPIEA2008048   Pages:   24
    Price:   US$18.00 (Academic Rate: US$18.00 )
       
     
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