How to order
IMF Publications

Working Papers in full text
2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 All


Other research-related activities and publications of the IMF can be found at IMF Research

Free Email Notification

Receive emails when we post new items of interest to you.

Subscribe or Modify your profile



Recent Inflationary Trends in World Commodities Markets

Author/Editor: Krichene, Noureddine
Authorized for Distribution: May 1, 2008
Electronic Access: Free Full Text (PDF file size is 600KB)
Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file.
 
Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.

Summary: Expansionary monetary policies in key industrial countries and sharply depreciating U.S. dollar exchange rate sent commodities prices soaring at unprecedented rates during 2003-2007. Food prices rose to alarming levels threatening malnutrition and food riots. In contrast, consumer price indices, a leading indicator for monetary policy, were showing almost no inflation and posed a price puzzle insofar their evolution was not responsive to record low interest rates, double digit commodities inflation, and sharp exchange rate depreciation. Commodities prices were shown to be driven by one common trend, identified as a monetary shock. Policy makers may have to face a policy dilemma: maintain monetary policy stance with accelerating commodities price inflation, subsequent world recession, and financial disorder; or tighten monetary policy with subsequent world recession followed by recovery and financial and price stability.
 
Order a print copy
Series: Working Paper No.08/130
Subject(s): Commodity markets | Commodity prices | Inflation | Exchange rate depreciation | Developed countries | Monetary policy | Consumer price indexes | External shocks
Author's keyword(s): Commodities prices | common trends | monetary policy | variance decomposition.
 
English  
    Published:   May 1, 2008        
            Format:   Paper
    Stock No:   WPIEA2008130   Pages:   26
    Price:   US$18.00 (Academic Rate: US$18.00 )
       
     
Please address any questions about this title to publications@imf.org.