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Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT)

Author/Editor: Laxton, Douglas | Rose, David | Scott, Alasdair
Authorized for Distribution: March 1, 2009
Electronic Access: Free Full Text (PDF file size is 835KB)
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.

Summary: This paper presents a basic plan for developing a Forecast and Policy Analysis System designed to support an inflation-forecast targeting regime at a central bank. It includes discussion of the development of data management and reporting processes; the creation of a forecast team and the development of human capital; the implementation of a simple model, plus possible extensions; and the management of regular economic projections. We emphasize that it is better to implement simple models earlier and use them well, rather than wait in an attempt to develop an all-encompassing model.
 
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Series: Working Paper No. 09/65
Subject(s): Inflation | Forecasting models | Data analysis | Databases | Monetary policy | Central banks | Human capital
Author's keyword(s): Forecasting | economic projections | macroeconomic models
 
English  
    Published:   March 1, 2009        
            Format:   Paper
    Stock No:   WPIEA2009065   Pages:   65
    Price:   US$18.00 (Academic Rate: US$18.00 )
       
     
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