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How Good Are Ex Ante Program Evaluation Techniques? The Case of School Enrollment in PROGRESA

Author/Editor: Bornhorst, Fabian
Authorized for Distribution: September 1, 2009
Electronic Access: Free Full Text (PDF file size is 1,191KB)
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.

Summary: This paper evaluates a microsimulation technique by comparing the simulated outcome of a program with its actual effect. The ex ante evaluation is carried out for a conditional cash transfer program, where poor households were given money if the children attended school. A model of occupational choice is used to simulate the expected impact of the program. The results suggest that the transfer would indeed increase school attendance and do more so among girls than boys. While the simulated effect tends to be larger than the actual effect, the latter lies within bootstrapped confidence intervals of the simulation.
 
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Series: Working Paper No. 09/187
Subject(s): Economic models | Education | Human capital | Income | Labor markets | Labor productivity | Labor supply | Mexico | Payment systems | Poverty reduction | Private sector | Social policy
Author's keyword(s): Keywords: microsimulation | conditional transfers | demand for schooling | child labor | PROGRESA
 
English  
    Published:   September 1, 2009        
            Format:   Paper
    Stock No:   WPIEA2009187   Pages:   35
    Price:   US$18.00 (Academic Rate: US$18.00 )
       
     
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