Working Papers in full text
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
All
Other research-related activities and publications of the IMF can be found at IMF Research
|
Free Email Notification
Receive emails when we post new
items of interest to you.
Subscribe or
Modify your profile
|
|
|
|
The Global Financial Crisis: Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact
|
Author/Editor: |
Berkmen, Pelin | Gelos, Gaston | Rennhack, Robert | Walsh, James P |
| Authorized for Distribution: |
December 1, 2009 |
|
Electronic Access: |
Free Full Text (PDF file size is 965KB)
Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file.
|
|
|
|
Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.
|
|
Summary: We provide one of the first attempts at explaining the differences in the crisis impact across developing countries and emerging markets. Using cross-country regressions to explain the factors driving growth forecast revisions after the eruption of the global crisis, we find that a small set of variables explain a large share of the variation in growth revisions. Countries with more leveraged domestic financial systems and more rapid credit growth tended to suffer larger downward revisions to their growth outlooks. For emerging markets, this financial channel trumps the trade channel. For a broader set of developing countries, however, the trade channel seems to have mattered, with countries exporting more advanced manufacturing goods more affected than those exporting food. Exchange-rate flexibility clearly helped in buffering the impact of the shock. There is also some -weaker-evidence that countries with a stronger fiscal position prior to the crisis were hit less severely. We find little evidence for the importance of other policy variables.
|
|
|
|
Order a print copy
|
|
Series: |
Working Paper No. 09/280 |
|
Subject(s): |
Credit expansion | Cross country analysis | Developing countries | Economic forecasting | Economic growth | Emerging markets | Financial crisis | Financial systems | Fiscal policy | Flexible exchange rates | Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009 | Trade |
|
Author's keyword(s): |
Global crisis | transmission of shocks | emerging markets | cross-country linkages |
|
|
|
|
| |
Published: |
|
December 1, 2009 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
Format: |
|
Paper |
| |
Stock No: |
|
WPIEA2009280 |
|
Pages: |
|
19 |
| |
Price: |
|
US$18.00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
