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On the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations

Author/Editor: Deren Unalmis | Ibrahim Unalmis | D. Filiz Unsal
Authorized for Distribution: December 1, 2009
Electronic Access: Free Full Text (PDF file size is 1,048KB)
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.

Summary: Analyzing macroeconomic impacts of oil price changes requires first to investigate different sources of these changes and their distinct effects. Kilian (2009) analyzes the effects of an oil supply shock, an aggregate demand shock, and a precautionary oil demand shock. The paper's aim is to model macroeconomic consequences of these shocks within a new Keynesian DSGE framework. It models a small open economy and the rest of the world together to discover both accompanying effects of oil price changes and their international transmission mechanisms. Our results indicate that different sources of oil price fluctuations bring remarkably diverse outcomes for both economies.
 
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Series: Working Paper No. 09/285
Subject(s): Oil prices | Oil production | Demand | Supply | External shocks | Price increases | Fiscal policy | Monetary policy | Inflation targeting | Productivity | Economic models
 
English  
    Published:   December 1, 2009        
    ISBN/ISSN:   9781451874303   Format:   Paper
    Stock No:   WPIEA2009285   Pages:   338
    Price:   US$18.00
       
     
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