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“Lost Decade” in Translation:What Japan’s Crisis could Portend about Recovery from the Great Recession

Author/Editor: Syed, Murtaza H. | Kang, Kenneth | Tokuoka, Kiichi
Authorized for Distribution: December 1, 2009
Electronic Access: Free Full Text (PDF file size is 1,506KB)
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.

Summary: Is the recovery from the global financial crisis now secured? A strikingly similar crisis that stalled Japan's growth miracle two decades ago could provide some clues. This paper explores the parallels and draws potential implications for the current global outlook and policies. Japan's experiences suggest four broad lessons. First, green shoots do not guarantee a recovery, implying a need to be cautious about the outlook. Second, financial fragilities can leave an economy vulnerable to adverse shocks and should be resolved for a durable recovery. Third, well-calibrated macroeconomic stimulus can facilitate this adjustment, but carries increasing costs. And fourth, while judging the best time to exit from policy support is difficult, clear medium-term plans may help.
 
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Series: Working Paper No. 09/282
Subject(s): Banking crisis | Banking sector | Central bank policy | Demand | Economic recovery | Financial crisis | Fiscal policy | Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009 | International financial system | Japan | Liquidity management | Monetary policy | Private sector | Public investment
Author's keyword(s): Japan | Lost Decade | Financial Crisis | Great Recession | Green Shoots | Exit
 
English  
    Published:   December 1, 2009        
            Format:   Paper
    Stock No:   WPIEA2009282   Pages:   40
    Price:   US$18.00 (Academic Rate: US$18.00 )
       
     
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