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Recoveries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan: Have Macroeconomic Policies Been Effective?

Author/Editor: Hakura, Dalia | Grigoli, Francesco
Authorized for Distribution: May 1, 2010
Electronic Access: Free Full Text (PDF file size is 1,115KB)
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.

Summary: This paper identifies and documents the properties of output gap recessions and recoveries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan (MENAP) during the 1980 to 2008 period. It goes on to investigate the key determinants of the recoveries. The duration of MENAP countries’ recessions and recoveries has increased from the 1990s to the 2000s. MENAP hydrocarbon exporting countries’ recessions were on average more pronounced in the 2000s, and hydrocarbon importing countries’ recessions milder. Fiscal policy is found to have played a key role during the recoveries to potential output, although with weaker effects for MENAP countries that are more open to trade. Monetary policy is found to have been less effective. This is likely to be related to the fact that many of the MENAP countries have fixed exchange rate regimes and hence have limited room for active monetary policy.
 
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Series: Working Paper No. 10/122
Subject(s): Economic models | Economic recession | Economic recovery | Fiscal policy | Hydrocarbons | Investment | Middle East | Monetary policy | North Africa | Oil exporting countries | Pakistan | Production growth | Trade liberalization
Author's keyword(s): Recessions | recoveries | Middle East | North Africa | Pakistan | fiscal policy | monetary policy | investments | hydrocarbon exporting countries | trade openness
 
English  
    Published:   May 1, 2010        
            Format:   Paper
    Stock No:   WPIEA2010122   Pages:   30
    Price:   US$18.00 (Academic Rate: US$18.00 )
       
     
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