Working Papers in full text
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
All
Other research-related activities and publications of the IMF can be found at IMF Research
|
Free Email Notification
Receive emails when we post new
items of interest to you.
Subscribe or
Modify your profile
|
|
|
|
Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation
|
Author/Editor: |
Crowe, Christopher W. |
| Authorized for Distribution: |
July 1, 2010 |
|
Electronic Access: |
Free Full Text (PDF file size is 1,032KB)
Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file.
|
|
|
|
Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.
|
|
Summary: Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public domain at the expense of new private information, when individual forecasters have different information sets. Using a cross-country panel of growth forecasts and new methodological insights, this paper finds that: consensus forecasts are inefficient as predicted; this is not due to individual forecaster irrationality; forecasters appear unaware of this inefficiency; and a simple adjustment reduces forecast errors by 5 percent. Similar results are found using US nominal GDP forecasts. The paper also discusses the result’s implications for users of forecaster surveys and for the literature on information aggregation.
|
|
|
|
Order a print copy
|
|
Series: |
Working Paper No. 10/178 |
|
Subject(s): |
Cross country analysis | Economic forecasting | Economic growth | Gross domestic product |
|
Author's keyword(s): |
Consensus Forecasts
| Information Aggregation; Forecast Efficiency
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Published: |
|
July 1, 2010 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
Format: |
|
Paper |
| |
Stock No: |
|
WPIEA2010178 |
|
Pages: |
|
43 |
| |
Price: |
|
US$18.00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
