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Still Minding the Gap - Inflation Dynamics during Episodes of Persistent Large Output Gaps

Author/Editor: Meier, André
Authorized for Distribution: August 1, 2010
Electronic Access: Free Full Text (PDF file size is 1,487KB)
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.

Summary: This paper studies inflation dynamics during 25 historical episodes in advanced economies where output remained well below potential for an extended period. We find that such episodes generally brought about significant disinflation, underpinned by weak labor markets, slowing wage growth, and, in many cases, falling oil prices. Indeed, inflation declined by about the same fraction of the initial inflation rate across episodes. That said, disinflation has tended to taper off at very low positive inflation rates, arguably reflecting downward nominal rigidities and well-anchored inflation expectations. Temporary inflation increases during episodes were, in turn, systematically related to currency depreciation or higher oil prices. Overall, the historical patterns suggest little upside inflation risk in advanced economies facing the prospect of persistent large output gaps.
 
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Series: Working Paper No. 10/189
Subject(s): Production | Deflation | Disinflation | Exchange rates | Inflation rates | Labor markets | Oil prices
Author's keyword(s): Inflation; Output gap; Phillips curve; Disinflation; Deflation; Recession
 
English  
    Published:   August 1, 2010        
            Format:   Paper
    Stock No:   WPIEA2010189   Pages:   36
    Price:   US$18.00 (Academic Rate: US$18.00 )
       
     
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