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Estimating Potential Output with a Multivariate Filter

Author/Editor: Benes, Jaromir | Clinton, Kevin | Garcia-Saltos, Roberto | Johnson, Marianne | Laxton, Douglas | Manchev, Petar | Matheson, Troy
Authorized for Distribution: December 1, 2010
Electronic Access: Free Full Text (PDF file size is 996KB)
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.

Summary: This paper develops a simple model for measuring potential output that uses data on inflation, unemployment, and capacity utilization. We apply the model to 10 countries, in addition to the United States and the euro area. While there is a substantial amount of uncertainty around our estimates, we find that the financial crisis has resulted in a reduction in potential output.
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Series: Working Paper No. 10/285
Subject(s): Cross country analysis | Economic growth | Economic models | Financial crisis | Fiscal policy | Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009 | Industrial production | Inflation | Monetary policy | Unemployment
Author's keyword(s): Potential Output | Output Gap | Structural Government Deficits | Cyclical Government Deficits | Fiscal Policy | Monetary Policy | Inflation | Unemployment | Government Debt.
    Published:   December 1, 2010        
            Format:   Paper
    Stock No:   WPIEA2010285   Pages:   37
    Price:   US$18.00 (Academic Rate: US$18.00 )
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