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Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts: Some Cross-Country Evidence

Author/Editor: Loungani, Prakash | Stekler, Herman | Tamirisa, Natalia T.
Authorized for Distribution: June 1, 2011
Electronic Access: Free Full Text (PDF file size is 1,055KB)
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.

Summary: We document information rigidity in forecasts for real GDP growth in 46 countries over the past two decades. We investigate: (i) if rigidities are lower around turning points in the economy, such as in times of recessions and crises; (ii) if rigidities differ across countries, particularly between advanced countries and emerging markets; and (iii) how quickly forecasters incorporate news about growth in other countries into their growth forecasts, with a focus on how advanced countries‘ growth forecasts incorporate news about emerging market growth and vice versa.
 
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Series: Working Paper No. 11/125
Subject(s): Cross country analysis | Data analysis | Developed countries | Economic forecasting | Economic growth | Economic models | Economic recession | Emerging markets | Financial crisis
Author's keyword(s): Information rigidity; forecasts; recessions; crises
 
English  
    Published:   June 1, 2011        
            Format:   Paper
    Stock No:   WPIEA2011125   Pages:   41
    Price:   US$18.00 (Academic Rate: US$18.00 )
       
     
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