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The Big Split: Why Did Output Trajectories in the ASEAN-4 Diverge after the Global Financial Crisis?

Author/Editor: Agnes Isnawangsih | Vladimir Klyuev | Longmei Zhang
Authorized for Distribution: October 30, 2013
Electronic Access: Free Full Text (PDF file size is 814KB)
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.

Summary: The global financial crisis originated in advanced economies, but had a major impact on emerging markets. The impact, however, was not uniform. Even in a relatively homogenous group of countries such as ASEAN-4 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand), there were considerable differences both in terms of instantaneous impact of the crisis and in terms of output performance relative to trend. There are several main reasons for the divergence. First, trade shocks had a larger impact on more open economies (Malaysia and Thailand). Second, countercyclical fiscal stimulus in Indonesia and the Philippines was larger and was sustained longer. Third, idiosyncratic factors pushed output up in Indonesia and down in Thailand. Such factors include investment-friendly structural reforms and fortuitously timed election spending in Indonesia, as well as political instability and natural disasters in Thailand.
 
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Series: Working Paper No. 13/222
Subject(s): Economic growth | Indonesia | Malaysia | Philippines | Thailand | Association of Southeast Asian Nations | Production growth | External shocks | Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009 | Cross country analysis
 
English  
    Published:   October 30, 2013        
    ISBN/ISSN:   9781475588774/2227-8885   Format:   Paper
    Stock No:   WPIEA2013222   Pages:   17
    Price:   US$18.00
       
     
Please address any questions about this title to publications@imf.org.