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Adding China to the Global Projection Model

Author/Editor: Patrick Blagrave | Peter Elliott | Roberto Garcia-Saltos | Douglas Hostland | Douglas Laxton | Fan Zhang
Authorized for Distribution: December 19, 2013
Electronic Access: Free Full Text (PDF file size is 1,098KB)
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.

Summary: We extend the Global Projection Model (GPM) to include a separate block for China. China plays an important role in shaping global economic outcomes, given its sheer size and trade integration with other key economies, its demand for commodities, and its policies. Also, the Chinese economy has several unique features which differentiate it from the rest of emerging Asia. These features (the use of multiple monetary-policy instruments and a managed-floating exchange-rate policy) mean that a separate treatment of China allows for a better consideration of China, as well as how the rest of emerging Asia behaves.
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Series: Working Paper No. 13/256
Subject(s): Forecasting models | China | Monetary policy | Inflation | Exchange rate regimes | Commodity prices
    Published:   December 19, 2013        
    ISBN/ISSN:   9781484317631/1018-5941   Format:   Paper
    Stock No:   WPIEA2013256   Pages:   33
    Price:   US$18.00
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