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The U.S. Manufacturing Recovery: Uptick or Renaissance?

Author/Editor: Oya Celasun | Gabriel Di Bella | Tim Mahedy | Chris Papageorgiou
Authorized for Distribution: February 12, 2014
Electronic Access: Free Full Text (PDF file size is 541KB)
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.

Summary: The notable rebound of U.S. manufacturing activity following the Great Recession has raised the question of whether the sector might be experiencing a renaissance. Using panel regressions, we find that a depreciating real exchange rate, an increasing spread in natural gas prices between the United States and other G-7 countries, and in particular decreasing unit labor costs have had a positive impact on U.S. manufacturing production. While we find it unlikely for manufacturing to become a main engine of growth in the United States, we find that U.S. manufacturing exports could provide nonnegligible growth opportunities going forward.
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Series: Working Paper No. 14/28
Subject(s): Manufacturing | United States | Demand | Industrial production | Natural gas | Energy prices | Group of seven
    Published:   February 12, 2014        
    ISBN/ISSN:   9781484301821/1018-5941   Format:   Paper
    Stock No:   WPIEA2014028   Pages:   24
    Price:   US$18.00
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