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Information Rigidities: Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel

Author/Editor: Jonas Dovern | Ulrich Fritsche | Prakash Loungani | Natalia T. Tamirisa
Authorized for Distribution: February 12, 2014
Electronic Access: Free Full Text (PDF file size is 538KB)
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.

Summary: We study forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies during 1989–2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is substantially higher than that in individual forecasts. Individual level forecasts are updated quite frequently, a behavior more in line “noisy” information models (Woodford, 2002; Sims, 2003) than with the assumptions of the sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis, 2002). While there are cross-country variations in information rigidity, there is no systematic difference between advanced and emerging economies.
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Series: Working Paper No. 14/31
Subject(s): Economic forecasting | Economic growth | Developed countries | Emerging markets | Forecasting models
    Published:   February 12, 2014        
    ISBN/ISSN:   9781484305201/1018-5941   Format:   Paper
    Stock No:   WPIEA2014031   Pages:   24
    Price:   US$18.00
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