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Growth: Now and Forever?

Author/Editor: Giang Ho | Paolo Mauro
Authorized for Distribution: July 2, 2014
Electronic Access: Free Full Text (PDF file size is 613KB)
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.

Summary: Forecasters often predict continued rapid economic growth into the medium and long term for countries that have recently experienced strong growth. Using long-term forecasts of economic growth from the IMF/World Bank staff Debt Sustainability Analyses for a panel of countries, we show that the baseline forecasts are more optimistic than warranted by past international growth experience. Further, by comparing the IMF’s World Economic Outlook forecasts with actual growth outcomes, we show that optimism bias is greater the longer the forecast horizon.
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Series: Working Paper No. 14/117
Subject(s): Economic growth | Economic forecasting | Panel analysis
    Published:   July 2, 2014        
    ISBN/ISSN:   9781498309820/1018-5941   Format:   Paper
    Stock No:   WPIEA2014117   Pages:   27
    Price:   US$18.00
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