IMF Working Papers

IMF Working Papers by Date

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December 2004

Title: Local Financial Development and the Aid-Growth Relationship Author/Editor: Nkusu, Mwanza ; Sayek, Selin Series: Working Paper No. 04/238 Date: December 1, 2004 Subject(s): Development assistance \| Economic growth \| Poverty \| Financial assistance \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Foreign Aid \| Economic Growth \| Poverty \| and Financial Development

Title: Integrating a Unified Revenue Administration for Tax and Social Contribution Collections: Experiences of Central and Eastern European Countries Author/Editor: Barrand, Peter ; Ross, Stanford G. ; Harrison, Graham Series: Working Paper No. 04/237 Date: December 1, 2004 Subject(s): Tax administration \| Europe \| Albania \| Bulgaria \| Romania \| Sweden \| Revenues \| Tax collection \| Social security \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): integration \| tax/revenue administration \| social contribution collection

Title: Institutions and the External Capital Structure of Countries Author/Editor: Faria, André ; Mauro, Paolo Series: Working Paper No. 04/236 Date: December 1, 2004 Subject(s): Foreign investment \| External debt \| Capital formation \| Emerging markets \| Developing countries Author's keyword(s): Foreign direct investment \| porfolio equity \| external debt \| external liabilities

Title: Managing Confidence in Emerging Market Bank Runs Author/Editor: Kim, Se-Jik ; Mody, Ashoka Series: Working Paper No. 04/235 Date: December 1, 2004 Subject(s): Banks \| Liquidity management \| Emerging markets Author's keyword(s): Confidence \| bank runs \| bailout \| sequential liquidity shortages

Title: Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBC Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data? Author/Editor: Galí, Jordi ; Rabanal, Pau Series: Working Paper No. 04/234 Date: December 1, 2004 Subject(s): Business cycles \| United States \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Real Business Cycles \| Technology Shocks \| Nominal Rigidities \| Real Frictions

Title: The Relationship Between Macroeconomic Statistics Guidelines and Accounting Standards Author/Editor: Laliberté, Lucie Series: Working Paper No. 04/233 Date: December 1, 2004 Subject(s): National accounts \| Accounting \| Statistics Author's keyword(s): macroeconomics \| national accounts \| accounting \| relation of economics to other disciplines

Title: Macroeconomic Implications of the Transition to Inflation Targeting and Capital Account Liberalization in Romania Author/Editor: Berkmen, Pelin ; Gueorguiev, Nikolay Series: Working Paper No. 04/232 Date: December 1, 2004 Subject(s): Inflation targeting \| Romania \| Monetary policy \| Capital account liberalization Author's keyword(s): Inflation targeting \| Romania \| monetary policy \| capital account liberalization

Title: Institutional Quality and International Trade Author/Editor: Levchenko, Andrei A. Series: Working Paper No. 04/231 Date: December 1, 2004 Subject(s): International trade \| Trade models Author's keyword(s): Trade patterns \| institutions \| incomplete contracts

Title: Can The Private Annuity Market Provide Secure Retirement Income? Author/Editor: Mackenzie, G. A. ; Schrager, Allison Series: Working Paper No. 04/230 Date: December 1, 2004 Subject(s): Pensions \| Accounts Author's keyword(s): Public pension systems \| individual accounts \| annuities

Title: Exchange Rate, Money, and Wages: What is Driving Prices in Armenia? Author/Editor: Grigorian, David A. ; Khachatryan, Armine ; Sargsyan, Grigor Series: Working Paper No. 04/229 Date: December 1, 2004 Subject(s): Price adjustments \| Armenia \| Exchange markets \| Wages \| Money markets \| Labor markets \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Armenia \| price dynamics \| error correction model

Title: A Common Currency for Belarus and Russia? Author/Editor: Gulde, Anne Marie ; Jafarov, Etibar ; Prokopenko, Vassili Series: Working Paper No. 04/228 Date: December 1, 2004 Subject(s): Monetary unions \| Belarus \| Russian Federation \| Currencies Author's keyword(s): Currency union \| monetary union \| Belarus \| Russia

Title: COMESA and SADC: Prospects and Challenges for Regional Trade Integration Author/Editor: Khandelwal, Padamja Series: Working Paper No. 04/227 Date: December 1, 2004 Subject(s): Trade Relations \| Africa \| Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa \| Southern African Development Community \| Trade liberalization \| Economic cooperation \| Trade integration Author's keyword(s): COMESA \| SADC \| regional integration \| Economic Partnership Agreements

Title: Central Bank Governance: A Survey of Boards and Management Author/Editor: Lybek, Tonny ; Morris, JoAnne Series: Working Paper No. 04/226 Date: December 1, 2004 Subject(s): Central banks \| Governance \| Central bank role Author's keyword(s): Central bank independence \| central bank accountability \| central bank governance

Title: Trade Finance and Trade Flows: Panel Data Evidence from 10 Crises Author/Editor: Ronci, Márcio Valério Series: Working Paper No. 04/225 Date: December 1, 2004 Subject(s): Trade \| Public finance \| Financial crisis Author's keyword(s): Trade flows \| trade finance \| crisis

Title: Macroeconomic Implications of Natural Disasters in the Caribbean Author/Editor: Rasmussen, Tobias N. Series: Working Paper No. 04/224 Date: December 1, 2004 Subject(s): Emergency assistance \| Caribbean \| Developing countries Author's keyword(s): Natural Disasters \| Eastern Caribbean \| Developing Countries

Title: Inflation and Monetary Pass-Through in Guinea Author/Editor: Blavy, Rodolphe Series: Working Paper No. 04/223 Date: December 1, 2004 Subject(s): Inflation \| Guinea \| Money supply \| Consumer prices \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Guinea \| inflation \| money supply \| cointegration \| error correction model

November 2004

Title: Currency Bloc Formation as a Dynamic Process Based on Trade Network Externalities Author/Editor: Yehoue, Etienne B. Series: Working Paper No. 04/222 Date: November 1, 2004 Subject(s): Monetary unions \| European Economic and Monetary Union \| Trade relations \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Currency blocs \| trade network externalities \| stochastic and dynamic games \| pathdependency

Title: Sovereign Borrowing by Developing Countries: What Determines Market Access? Author/Editor: Gelos, Gaston ; Sahay, Ratna ; Sandleris, Guido Series: Working Paper No. 04/221 Date: November 1, 2004 Subject(s): Public debt \| International capital markets \| Loans \| Bond markets \| Developing countries Author's keyword(s): Sovereign Debt \| international capital markets \| syndicated bank loans \| bond markets \| developing countries

Title: On the Design and Effectiveness of Targeted Expenditure Programs Author/Editor: Ahmad, Ehtisham ; Martinez, Leonardo Series: Working Paper No. 04/220 Date: November 1, 2004 Subject(s): Transfer of real resources \| Government expenditures \| Fiscal management \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Fiscal federalism \| special purpose transfers

Title: A Model of the IMF as a Coinsurance Arrangement Author/Editor: Chami, Ralph ; Sharma, Sunil ; Shim, Ilhyock Series: Working Paper No. 04/219 Date: November 1, 2004 Subject(s): Conditionality \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): IMF \| coinsurance arrangement \| conditionality \| moral hazard \| Samaritan's dilemma \| King Lear's dilemma

Title: Capital Inflows, Sterilization, And Commercial Bank Speculation: The Case of the Czech Republic in the Mid-1990s Author/Editor: Christensen, Jakob Series: Working Paper No. 04/218 Date: November 1, 2004 Subject(s): Capital inflows \| Czech Republic \| Commercial banks \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Capital inflows \| sterilization \| exchange rate policy \| Czech Republic

Title: Social Spending, Human Capital, and Growth in Developing Countries: Implications for Achieving the MDGs Author/Editor: Baldacci, Emanuele ; Clements, Benedict J. ; Gupta, Sanjeev ; Cui, Qiang Series: Working Paper No. 04/217 Date: November 1, 2004 Subject(s): Social policy \| Human capital \| Developing countries \| Government expenditures \| Economic growth \| Millennium Development Goals Author's keyword(s): Economic Growth \| Human Capital \| Social Spending \| MDGs

Title: Exchange Rate Policy and the Management of Official and Private Capital Flows in Africa Author/Editor: Buffie, Edward F. ; Adam, Christopher ; O'Connell, Stephen A. ; Pattillo, Catherine A. Series: Working Paper No. 04/216 Date: November 1, 2004 Subject(s): Exchange rate policy \| Africa \| Capital flows \| Development assistance \| Currency substitution Author's keyword(s): Aid \| Sterilization \| Currency Substitution \| Seigniorage \| Africa

Title: What Determines Long-Run Macroeconomic Stability? Democratic Institutions Author/Editor: Satyanath, Shanker ; Subramanian, Arvind Series: Working Paper No. 04/215 Date: November 1, 2004 Subject(s): Economic stabilization Author's keyword(s): Macroeconomic instability \| political institutions \| opennes \| conflict

Title: The Distributional Bias of Public Education: Causes and Consequences Author/Editor: Dabla-Norris, Era ; Gradstein, Mark Series: Working Paper No. 04/214 Date: November 1, 2004 Subject(s): Education \| Governance Author's keyword(s): public education \| incidence bias \| inequality \| governance

Title: The Greenbook and U.S. Monetary Policy Author/Editor: Tchaidze, Robert Series: Working Paper No. 04/213 Date: November 1, 2004 Subject(s): Monetary Policy \| United States Author's keyword(s): Monetary policy \| Taylor rule \| real-time data

Title: Are There Negative Returns to Aid? A Comment Author/Editor: Nkusu, Mwanza Series: Working Paper No. 04/212 Date: November 1, 2004 Subject(s): Development assistance \| Economic growth \| Poverty Author's keyword(s): Foreign Aid \| Economic Growth \| Poverty

Title: Interest Rate Pass-Through in Romania and other Central European Economies Author/Editor: Tieman, Alexander F. Series: Working Paper No. 04/211 Date: November 1, 2004 Subject(s): Monetary policy \| Romania \| Transition economies \| Interest rates \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Monetary policy transmission \| Interest rate \| Romania \| Central European Economies

Title: Exchange Rate Policy and Sovereign Bond Spreads in Developing Countries Author/Editor: Jahjah, Samir ; Yue, Vivian Z. Series: Working Paper No. 04/210 Date: November 1, 2004 Subject(s): Exchange rate regimes \| Bond issues \| Developing countries \| Debt \| Credit \| Financial crisis \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Sovereign Credit Spreads \| Exchange Rate Regimes \| Overvaluation \| Debt Crises

Title: In the Pipeline: Georgia's Oil and Gas Transit Revenues Author/Editor: Billmeier, Andreas ; Dunn, Jonathan C. ; van Selm, Bert Series: Working Paper No. 04/209 Date: November 1, 2004 Subject(s): Oil \| Georgia \| Natural gas \| Transport \| Revenues \| Fiscal policy Author's keyword(s): Georgia \| Transit fees \| fiscal revenue

Title: Measuring Disinflation Credibility in Emerging Markets: A Bayesian Approach with an Application to Turkey Author/Editor: Rossi, Marco ; Rebucci, Alessandro Series: Working Paper No. 04/208 Date: November 1, 2004 Subject(s): Disinflation \| Turkey \| Emerging markets Author's keyword(s): Bayesian Learning \| Credibility \| Disinflation \| Mixing Estimation \| Turkey

Title: Evolution of the Relative Price of Goods and Services in a Neoclassical Model of Capital Accumulation Author/Editor: Klyuev, Vladimir Series: Working Paper No. 04/207 Date: November 1, 2004 Subject(s): Capital accumulation \| Capital flows \| Capital goods \| Consumer goods \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): capital accumulation \| Balassa-Samuelson effect \| two-sector growth model

Title: Foreign Direct Investment and Regional Trade Agreements: The Market Size Effect Revisited Author/Editor: Jaumotte, Florence Series: Working Paper No. 04/206 Date: November 1, 2004 Subject(s): Foreign direct investment \| Algeria \| Morocco \| Tunisia \| Trade models Author's keyword(s): Foreign direct investment \| Regional trade agreements \| Economic integration \| Market size \| Scale economies

Title: Wage Compression, Employment Restrictions and Unemployment: The Case of Mauritius Author/Editor: Porter, Nathaniel John Series: Working Paper No. 04/205 Date: November 1, 2004 Subject(s): Unemployment \| Mauritius \| Labor markets \| Wage restraint Author's keyword(s): Unemployment \| Labor Market Restrictions \| Wage Compression

Title: Does Compliance with Basel Core Principles Bring Any Measurable Benefits? Author/Editor: Podpiera, Richard Series: Working Paper No. 04/204 Date: November 1, 2004 Subject(s): Basel Core Principles \| Banking \| Loans \| Interest rates on loans \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Basel Core Principles \| banking \| nonperforming loans \| interest margin

October 2004

Title: Can the IMF's Medium-Term Growth Projections Be Improved? Author/Editor: Zalduendo, Juan ; Batista, Catia Series: Working Paper No. 04/203 Date: October 1, 2004 Subject(s): Economic growth \| Forecasting models Author's keyword(s): Projections \| Forecasts \| Growth

Title: The Cyclical and Long-Term Behavior of Government Expenditures in Developing Countries Author/Editor: Akitoby, Bernardin ; Clements, Benedict J. ; Gupta, Sanjeev ; Inchauste, Gabriela Series: Working Paper No. 04/202 Date: October 1, 2004 Subject(s): Fiscal policy \| Developing Countries \| Government Expenditures \| Business cycles Author's keyword(s): Fiscal policy \| Business cycles \| Wagner's law

Title: Financial Sector Development in the Middle East and North Africa Author/Editor: Creane, Susan ; Goyal, Rishi ; Mobarak, A. Mushfiq ; Sab, Randa Series: Working Paper No. 04/201 Date: October 1, 2004 Subject(s): Financial Sector \| Middle East \| North Africa \| Development Author's keyword(s): Financial development \| index \| measurement \| Middle East and North Africa

Title: Why is Productivity Growth in the Euro Area So Sluggish? Author/Editor: Estevão, Marcello M. Series: Working Paper No. 04/200 Date: October 1, 2004 Subject(s): Economic growth \| Euro Area \| Productivity \| Labor markets Author's keyword(s): Productivity growth \| structural change \| capital deepening \| wage moderation

Title: Managerial Incentives and Financial Contagion Author/Editor: Chakravorti, Sujit ; Lall, Subir Series: Working Paper No. 04/199 Date: October 1, 2004 Subject(s): Globalization \| Financial crisis \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Financial Crisis \| Index Investors \| Global Linkages

Title: Growth and Convergence in WAEMU Countries Author/Editor: Wane, Abdoul Aziz Series: Working Paper No. 04/198 Date: October 1, 2004 Subject(s): Economic growth \| West African Economic and Monetary Union \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Growth \| Convergence \| TFP growth \| WAEMU \| PMGE \| Fixed effects

Title: Keeping Capital Flowing: The Role of the IMF Author/Editor: Bordo, Michael D. ; Mody, Ashoka ; Oomes, Nienke Series: Working Paper No. 04/197 Date: October 1, 2004 Subject(s): Fund role \| Capital inflows \| Emerging markets Author's keyword(s): International Monetary Fund \| capital flows \| catalytic finance \| emerging markets

Title: Deriving Market Expectations for the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate from Option Prices Author/Editor: Krichene, Noureddine Series: Working Paper No. 04/196 Date: October 1, 2004 Subject(s): Emerging markets \| Euro \| U.S. dollar \| Exchange rates \| Prices \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Exchange rates \| Finite difference \| Implied risk-neutral distribution \| Inverse problem \| Market expectations \| Option prices \| Smile \| State prices \| Volatility

Title: Deconstructing the Art of Central Banking Author/Editor: Bayoumi, Tamim ; Sgherri, Silvia Series: Working Paper No. 04/195 Date: October 1, 2004 Subject(s): Monetary policy \| Inflation \| Central Banks \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Monetary Policy \| Inflation \| Rational Expectation Model

Title: A Theory of Workers' Remittances With An Application to Morocco Author/Editor: Bouhga-Hagbe, Jacques Series: Working Paper No. 04/194 Date: October 1, 2004 Subject(s): Salary remittances \| Morocco \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Morocco \| remittances \| altruism \| portfolio diversification \| co-integration

Title: Work Absence in Europe Author/Editor: Bonato, Leo ; Lusinyan, Lusine Series: Working Paper No. 04/193 Date: October 1, 2004 Subject(s): Sick leave \| Europe \| Insurance \| Labor supply \| Data analysis \| Data collection \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Sickness absence \| working time \| social insurance \| panel data \| Europe

Title: The Mussa Theorem: and Other Results on IMF Induced Moral Hazard Author/Editor: Jeanne, Olivier ; Zettelmeyer, Jeromin Series: Working Paper No. 04/192 Date: October 1, 2004 Subject(s): Fund-supported adjustment programs \| Fund \| Financial crisis \| Moral hazard \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): International Monetary Fund \| Financial Crises \| Moral Hazard

Title: A New Taxonomy of Monetary Regimes Author/Editor: Stone, Mark R. ; Bhundia, Ashok Series: Working Paper No. 04/191 Date: October 1, 2004 Subject(s): Monetary policy \| Monetary systems \| Transparency \| Exchange rate regimes Author's keyword(s): Monetary policy \| monetary regime \| transparency \| exchange rate policy

Title: The Internal Job Market of the IMF's Economist Program Author/Editor: Barron, Greg ; Vardy, Felix J. J. Series: Working Paper No. 04/190 Date: October 1, 2004 Subject(s): Economist Program \| Fund Author's keyword(s): Matching \| Stability \| Marriage Problem \| Deferred Acceptance Algorithm \| Gale-Shapley \| Entry-level Job Market

Title: Can Higher Reserves Help Reduce Exchange Rate Volatility? Author/Editor: Hviding, Ketil ; Nowak, M. ; Ricci, Luca Antonio Series: Working Paper No. 04/189 Date: October 1, 2004 Subject(s): Exchange rate variability \| Reserves \| Reserves adequacy Author's keyword(s): Foreign exchange volatility \| reserves \| reserve adequacy

Title: Real Exchange Rates in Developing Countries: Are Balassa-Samuelson Effects Present? Author/Editor: Choudhri, Ehsan U. ; Khan, Mohsin S. Series: Working Paper No. 04/188 Date: October 1, 2004 Subject(s): Real effective exchange rates \| Developing countries \| Productivity Author's keyword(s): Real Exchange Rates \| Balassa-Samuelson Effects \| Developing Countries

Title: Defining Financial Stability Author/Editor: Schinasi, Garry J. Series: Working Paper No. 04/187 Date: October 1, 2004 Subject(s): Financial stability \| Financial crisis Author's keyword(s): Finance \| Stability \| Fragility \| Crises

Title: Fear of Service Outsourcing: Is it Justified? Author/Editor: Amiti, Mary ; Wei, Shang-Jin Series: Working Paper No. 04/186 Date: October 1, 2004 Subject(s): Employment \| United States \| United Kingdom Author's keyword(s): Outsourcing \| services \| employment

September 2004

Title: R&D, Innovation, and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis Author/Editor: Ulku, Hulya Series: Working Paper No. 04/185 Date: September 1, 2004 Subject(s): Economic growth \| OECD \| Development \| Productivity \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Invention; RYD patents; economic growth; total factor productivity; panel data; generalized method of moment (GMM).

Title: Institutions, Program Implementation, and Macroeconomic Performance Author/Editor: Nsouli, Saleh M. ; Atoian, Rouben ; Mourmouras, Alex Series: Working Paper No. 04/184 Date: September 1, 2004 Subject(s): Fund-supported adjustment programs \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Institutions \| Political Economy \| IMF-supported programs \| macroeconomic performance

Title: Intercreditor Distribution in Sovereign Debt Restructuring Author/Editor: Mandeng, Ousmène Series: Working Paper No. 04/183 Date: September 1, 2004 Subject(s): Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism \| Collective action clauses \| Paris Club Author's keyword(s): Aggregation problem \| collective action \| intercreditor equity \| Paris Club

Title: What Do We Know About Tariff Incidence? Author/Editor: Tokarick, Stephen Series: Working Paper No. 04/182 Date: September 1, 2004 Subject(s): Tariffs \| Burden sharing Author's keyword(s): tariffs \| excess burden \| tax incidence offer curves

Title: Pension Funds and Emerging Markets Author/Editor: Chan-Lau, Jorge A. Series: Working Paper No. 04/181 Date: September 1, 2004 Subject(s): Pension funds \| Emerging markets \| Financial assets \| Pension regulations Author's keyword(s): Pension funds \| emerging markets \| asset allocation \| regulation

Title: An Institutional Framework for Comparing Emerging Market Currency Boards Author/Editor: Camilleri Gilson, Marie-Thérèse Series: Working Paper No. 04/180 Date: September 1, 2004 Subject(s): Monetary policy \| Argentina \| Europe \| Asia \| Currency boards \| Reserves \| Emerging markets Author's keyword(s): Precommitment \| Credibility \| Monetary Policy \| Institutional Design \| Currency Boards \| Reserves

Title: Quota Brokers Author/Editor: Imai, Susumu ; Krishna, Kala ; Mukhopadhyay, Abhiroop ; Tan, Ling Hui Series: Working Paper No. 04/179 Date: September 1, 2004 Subject(s): Import quotas \| Trade \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): quota licenses \| middlemen

Title: Trade Liberalization, Exchange Rate Changes, and Tax Revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa Author/Editor: Agbeyegbe, Terence D. ; Stotsky, Janet Gale ; WoldeMariam, Asegedech Series: Working Paper No. 04/178 Date: September 1, 2004 Subject(s): Trade liberalization \| Sub-Saharan Africa \| Exchange rates \| Tax revenues Author's keyword(s): Trade liberalization \| exchange rates \| tax revenue \| Sub-Saharan Africa

Title: What is an Emerging Market? Author/Editor: Mody, Ashoka Series: Working Paper No. 04/177 Date: September 1, 2004 Subject(s): Emerging markets \| Trade liberalization Author's keyword(s): Emerging Markets \| Commitment-Discretion Trade-Off

Title: Sources of Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa Author/Editor: Akitoby, Bernardin ; Ghura, Dhaneshwar ; Tahari, Amor ; Aka, Emmanuel Brou Series: Working Paper No. 04/176 Date: September 1, 2004 Subject(s): Economic growth \| Sub-Saharan Africa Author's keyword(s): Sub-Saharan Africa \| growth accounting \| growth prospects

Title: Insurance Value of International Reserves: An Option Pricing Approach Author/Editor: Lee, Jaewoo Series: Working Paper No. 04/175 Date: September 1, 2004 Subject(s): Insurance \| Reserves \| Prices Author's keyword(s): reserves \| insurance \| option \| underlying asset

Title: Microfinance in Africa: Experience and Lessons from Selected African Countries Author/Editor: Basu, Anupam ; Blavy, Rodolphe ; Yülek, Murat Â Series: Working Paper No. 04/174 Date: September 1, 2004 Subject(s): Africa \| Bank regulations \| Economic models \| Public finance \| Savings Author's keyword(s): Microfinance \| microcredit \| bank regulation \| Africa \| savings

Title: Domestic Competition Spurs Exports: The Indian Example Author/Editor: Poddar, Tushar Series: Working Paper No. 04/173 Date: September 1, 2004 Subject(s): Competition \| Exports \| India \| Trade \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): India \| FDI \| Exports \| Competition

Title: The Role of KAMCO in Resolving Nonperforming Loans in the Republic of Korea Author/Editor: He, Dong Series: Working Paper No. 04/172 Date: September 1, 2004 Subject(s): Asset management \| Korea, Republic of \| Bank restructuring \| Republic of Korea Author's keyword(s): Asset Management companies \| bank restructuring

Title: Understanding India’s Services Revolution Author/Editor: Gordon, James P. F. ; Gupta, Poonam Series: Working Paper No. 04/171 Date: September 1, 2004 Subject(s): Economic growth \| India \| Trade liberalization \| Employment Author's keyword(s): Services \| sectoral shares \| balanced growth \| splintering \| liberalization

Title: Financing Uganda's Poverty Reduction Strategy: Is Aid Causing More Pain Than Gain? Author/Editor: Nkusu, Mwanza Series: Working Paper No. 04/170 Date: September 1, 2004 Subject(s): Development assistance \| Uganda \| Poverty reduction \| Exchange rates \| Economic growth Author's keyword(s): Foreign aid \| exchange rates \| economic growth \| and poverty

Title: The Impact of Preference Erosion on Middle-Income Developing Countries Author/Editor: Alexandraki, Katerina ; Lankes, Hans P. Series: Working Paper No. 04/169 Date: September 1, 2004 Subject(s): Multilateral trade negotiations \| Trade liberalization Author's keyword(s): Trade \| preferences

Title: The Challenge of Fiscal Adjustment in a Democracy: The Case of India Author/Editor: Purfield, Catriona ; Hausmann, Ricardo Series: Working Paper No. 04/168 Date: September 1, 2004 Subject(s): Fiscal management \| India \| Debt \| Fiscal reforms Author's keyword(s): Fiscal responsibility legislation \| federal relations \| fiscal deficits \| debt

Title: Foreign Currency Deposits and International Liquidity Shortages in Pakistan Author/Editor: Mirakhor, Abbas ; Zaidi, Iqbal Mehdi Series: Working Paper No. 04/167 Date: September 1, 2004 Subject(s): Capital account liberalization \| Pakistan \| International liquidity \| Dollarization Author's keyword(s): Capital Account Liberalization \| Financial Development \| Dollarization

Title: Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies in Colombia: Progress and Challenges Author/Editor: Clavijo, Sergio Series: Working Paper No. 04/166 Date: September 1, 2004 Subject(s): Monetary policy \| Colombia \| Exchange rate policy \| Central bank role Author's keyword(s): Monetary policies \| Exchange rate policies \| Colombia

Title: Will you Buy My Peg? The Credibility of a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime as a Determinant of Bilateral Trade Author/Editor: Fritz-Krockow, Bernhard ; Jurzyk, Emilia Magdalena Series: Working Paper No. 04/165 Date: September 1, 2004 Subject(s): Exchange rate regimes \| Latin America \| Bilateral trade \| Currency pegs \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Exchange rate regime \| trade \| gravity model \| exchange rate peg

Title: Monetary Policy Rules and the U.S. Business Cycle: Evidence and Implications Author/Editor: Rabanal, Pau Series: Working Paper No. 04/164 Date: September 1, 2004 Subject(s): Business cycles \| United States \| Monetary Policy \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Switching Regime Models \| Time-Varying Coefficients \| Taylor Rule

Title: Can Public Discussion Enhance Program Ownership? Author/Editor: Isard, Peter ; Drazen, Allan Series: Working Paper No. 04/163 Date: September 1, 2004 Subject(s): Fund-supported adjustment programs Author's keyword(s): Ownership \| IMF programs \| deliberative democracy \| cheap talk

Title: Credible Commitment to Optimal Escape from a Liquidity Trap: The Role of the Balance Sheet of an Independent Central Bank Author/Editor: Jeanne, Olivier ; Svensson, Lars E. O. Series: Working Paper No. 04/162 Date: September 1, 2004 Subject(s): Deflation \| Liquidity \| Central Banks \| Interest rates \| Exchange rates Author's keyword(s): Zero lower bound for interest rates \| deflation

Title: Grants Versus Loans Author/Editor: Cordella, Tito ; Ulku, Hulya Series: Working Paper No. 04/161 Date: September 1, 2004 Subject(s): Loans \| Development \| Economic growth \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Aid Policies \| Grants \| Loans \| Concessionality \| Empirical Growth Models

Title: External Debt Sustainability in HIPC Completion Point Countries Author/Editor: Sun, Yan Series: Working Paper No. 04/160 Date: September 1, 2004 Subject(s): External debt \| Heavily indebted poor countries \| Debt relief \| Economic reforms Author's keyword(s): External Debt Sustainability \| HIPCs

August 2004

Title: Russia and the WTO: The "Gravity" of Outsider Status Author/Editor: Lissovolik, Bogdan ; Lissovolik, Yaroslav Series: Working Paper No. 04/159 Date: August 1, 2004 Subject(s): World Trade Organization \| Russian Federation \| Trade \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): WTO \| gravity model \| Russia \| trade

Title: Dimensions of Land Inequality and Economic Development Author/Editor: Erickson, Lennart ; Vollrath, Dietrich Series: Working Paper No. 04/158 Date: August 1, 2004 Subject(s): Land reform \| Development \| Financial sector \| Education Author's keyword(s): Agricultural inequality \| land inequality \| institutions \| financial development and education provision.

Title: Front-Loaded or Back-Loaded Fiscal Adjustments: What Works in Emerging Market Economies? Author/Editor: Baldacci, Emanuele ; Clements, Benedict J. ; Gupta, Sanjeev ; Mulas-Granados, Carlos Series: Working Paper No. 04/157 Date: August 1, 2004 Subject(s): Emerging markets \| Transition economies \| Fiscal policy \| Economic models \| Structural adjustment Author's keyword(s): Fiscal adjustment \| fiscal consolidations \| emerging markets \| political economy

Title: Fiscal Policy and Debt Sustainability: Cardoso's Brazil, 1995-2002 Author/Editor: Giambiagi, Fabio ; Ronci, Márcio Valério Series: Working Paper No. 04/156 Date: August 1, 2004 Subject(s): Fiscal policy \| Brazil \| External debt \| Structural adjustment \| Economic reforms Author's keyword(s): Fiscal policy \| debt sustainability \| institutions

Title: The IMF and Russia in the 1990s Author/Editor: Odling-Smee, J. C. Series: Working Paper No. 04/155 Date: August 1, 2004 Subject(s): Transition economies \| Russian Federation \| Fund \| Fiscal policy \| Structural adjustment Author's keyword(s): Economic transition \| International Monetary Fund \| macroeconomic policy \| Russia

Title: Measuring the Trade Effects of EMU Author/Editor: Faruqee, Hamid Series: Working Paper No. 04/154 Date: August 1, 2004 Subject(s): Trade \| European Economic and Monetary Union \| Bilateral trade \| Euro area Author's keyword(s): Currency Unions \| Gravity Model \| Bilateral Trade

Title: Quantitative Assessment of the Financial Sector: An Integrated Approach Author/Editor: Worrell, DeLisle Series: Working Paper No. 04/153 Date: August 1, 2004 Subject(s): Financial soundness indicators \| Financial sector \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Financial assessment \| financial indicators \| early warning systems

Title: What are the Potential Economic Benefits of Enlarging the Gulf Cooperation Council? Author/Editor: Chami, Saade ; Elekdag, Selim ; Tchakarov, Ivan Series: Working Paper No. 04/152 Date: August 1, 2004 Subject(s): Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf \| Exchange rate regimes \| Currency pegs \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Regional integration \| competition \| IMF's Global Economy Model (GEM)

Title: Analysis of Recent Growth in Low-Income CIS Countries Author/Editor: Loukoianova, Elena ; Unigovskaya, Anna Series: Working Paper No. 04/151 Date: August 1, 2004 Subject(s): Economic growth \| Armenia \| Azerbaijan \| Georgia \| Kyrgyz Republic \| Moldova \| Tajikistan \| Uzbekistan \| Transition economies \| Economic recovery Author's keyword(s): Transistion economies \| growth \| recovery \| output \| CIS-7

Title: Identifying Threshold Effects in Credit Risk Stress Testing Author/Editor: Gasha, Jose Giancarlo ; Méndez Morales, Armando Series: Working Paper No. 04/150 Date: August 1, 2004 Subject(s): Credit risk \| Business cycles Author's keyword(s): Business cycle \| credit risk \| stress testing

Title: Bank Consolidation and Performance: The Argentine Experience Author/Editor: Basu, Ritu ; Druck, Pablo ; Marston, David ; Susmel, Raul Series: Working Paper No. 04/149 Date: August 1, 2004 Subject(s): Banking \| Argentina \| Emerging markets \| Bank restructuring \| Financial crisis \| Privatization \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Bank Consolidation \| Banking Industry in Emerging Markets \| Financial Performance

Title: Country Insurance Author/Editor: Cordella, Tito ; Levy Yeyati, Eduardo Series: Working Paper No. 04/148 Date: August 1, 2004 Subject(s): Insurance \| Fiscal reforms \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Bailouts \| Moral Hazard \| Insurance Effect \| Financial Crises

Title: Structural Factors Affecting Exchange Rate Volatility: A Cross-Section Study Author/Editor: Canales Kriljenko, Jorge Iván ; Habermeier, Karl Friedrich Series: Working Paper No. 04/147 Date: August 1, 2004 Subject(s): Structural adjustment \| Exchange rates \| Foreign exchange Author's keyword(s): Exchange rate \| volatility \| foreign exchange regulations

Title: Ghostbusting: Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters? Author/Editor: Billmeier, Andreas Series: Working Paper No. 04/146 Date: August 1, 2004 Subject(s): Production \| Inflation \| Economic forecasting Author's keyword(s): Output gap \| potential output \| inflation forecasting

Title: A Re-examination of Korea's Trade Flows: What Has Changed and What Explains These Changes? Author/Editor: Cheng, Kevin C. Series: Working Paper No. 04/145 Date: August 1, 2004 Subject(s): Trade policy \| Korea, Republic of \| Exports \| Imports \| Economic models \| Republic of Korea Author's keyword(s): Trade equations \| exports \| imports

Title: Regional Economic Disparities in Australia Author/Editor: Ramakrishnan, Uma ; Cerisola, Martin D. Series: Working Paper No. 04/144 Date: August 1, 2004 Subject(s): Economic conditions \| Australia \| Wages \| Government expenditures Author's keyword(s): Regional disparities \| wage bargaining \| government transfers

Title: Fiscal Adjustment in EU Countries: A Balance Sheet Approach Author/Editor: Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria ; Moriyama, Kenji Series: Working Paper No. 04/143 Date: August 1, 2004 Subject(s): Fiscal reforms \| European Union \| Debt \| Privatization \| Government expenditures Author's keyword(s): Fiscal balance \| government debt \| government assets \| net worth

Title: Choosing the Correct Currency Anchor For a Small Economy: The Case of Nepal Author/Editor: Yelten, Sibel Series: Working Paper No. 04/142 Date: August 1, 2004 Subject(s): Monetary unions \| Nepal \| Asia \| Financial crisis \| Exchange rates \| Currencies \| Currency pegs \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Optimum Currency Area \| Asian Crises \| Exchange Rate Basket \| Currency Peg

Title: Are Developing Countries Better Off Spending their Oil Wealth Upfront? Author/Editor: Takizawa, H. ; Gardner, E. H. ; Ueda, Kenichi Series: Working Paper No. 04/141 Date: August 1, 2004 Subject(s): Fiscal policy \| Developing countries \| Public investment \| Oil revenues \| Economic growth \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Optimal fiscal policy \| public investment \| transitional growth \| natural resource

Title: Explaining Efficiency Differences Among Large German and Austrian Banks Author/Editor: Hauner, David Series: Working Paper No. 04/140 Date: August 1, 2004 Subject(s): Banks \| Germany \| Austria \| Productivity \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Banks \| efficiency \| Germany \| Austria \| data envelopment analysis

Title: Risk Instability and the Pattern of Foreign Direct Investment in the Middle East and North Africa Region Author/Editor: Chan, Kitty K. ; Gemayel, Edward R. Series: Working Paper No. 04/139 Date: August 1, 2004 Subject(s): Foreign direct investment \| Middle East \| North Africa Author's keyword(s): Foreign direct investment \| Multinational firms \| MENA countries

Title: Economic Integration, Business Cycle, and Productivity in North America Author/Editor: Cardarelli, Roberto ; Kose, M. Ayhan Series: Working Paper No. 04/138 Date: August 1, 2004 Subject(s): Business cycles \| Canada \| United States \| Productivity \| Trade \| International trade agreements \| North America Author's keyword(s): Canada \| United States \| Business Cycles \| Productivity \| NAFTA \| CUSFTA \| Regional Trade

July 2004

Title: Debt Maturity and the International Financial Architecture Author/Editor: Jeanne, Olivier Series: Working Paper No. 04/137 Date: July 1, 2004 Subject(s): External debt \| International financial system \| Collective action clauses \| Insolvency \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Short-term debt \| sovereign debt \| international financial architecture \| collective action clause \| international bankruptcy court

Title: Caribbean Business Cycles Author/Editor: Cashin, Paul Series: Working Paper No. 04/136 Date: July 1, 2004 Subject(s): Business cycles \| Caribbean \| Antigua and Barbuda \| Bahamas, The \| Barbados \| Belize \| Dominica \| Grenada \| Guyana \| Haiti \| Jamaica \| Montserrat \| St. Kitts and Nevis \| St. Lucia \| St. Vincent and the Grenadines \| Suriname \| Trinidad and Tobago \| Economic Growth \| Saint Kitts and Nevis \| Saint Lucia \| Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Author's keyword(s): Business cycles \| growth cycles \| cycle synchronization \| Caribbean

Title: Once Again, is Openness Good for Growth? Author/Editor: Lee, Ha Y. ; Ricci, Luca Antonio ; Rigobón, Roberto Series: Working Paper No. 04/135 Date: July 1, 2004 Subject(s): Trade policy \| Economic growth \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Trade openess \| economic growth \| endogeneity \| identification through heteroskedasticity

Title: International Investment Patterns Author/Editor: Lane, Philip R. ; Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria Series: Working Paper No. 04/134 Date: July 1, 2004 Subject(s): International trade \| Foreign investment \| Bilateral trade Author's keyword(s): International portfolio equity investment \| gravity \| international trade

Title: The Role of Mature Market Mutual Funds in Emerging Markets: Myth or Mayhem? Author/Editor: Ong, Li L. ; Sy, Amadou N. R. Series: Working Paper No. 04/133 Date: July 1, 2004 Subject(s): Emerging markets \| Capital markets \| Bond markets \| External debt \| Stock markets Author's keyword(s): Assest allocation \| crossover investors \| dedicated investors \| emerging markets \| mature markets \| mutual funds

Title: Choosing a Budget Management System: The Case of Rwanda Author/Editor: Lienert, Ian Series: Working Paper No. 04/132 Date: July 1, 2004 Subject(s): Budgeting \| Rwanda \| Budgetary policy \| Public finance Author's keyword(s): Rwanda \| budget system \| public management \| constitution \| budget law \| government accounting

Title: When in Peril, Retrench: Testing the Portfolio Channel of Contagion Author/Editor: Broner, Fernando ; Gelos, Gaston ; Reinhart, Carmen Series: Working Paper No. 04/131 Date: July 1, 2004 Subject(s): Financial crisis \| Emerging markets \| Stock markets \| Forecasting models Author's keyword(s): Contagion \| risk aversion \| emerging markets \| portforlio choice \| financial crises

Title: Zimbabwe: A Quest for a Nominal Anchor Author/Editor: Kovanen, Arto Series: Working Paper No. 04/130 Date: July 1, 2004 Subject(s): Monetary policy \| Zimbabwe \| Demand for money \| Inflation Author's keyword(s): Monetary policy \| demand for money \| nominal anchors \| and inflation

Title: Foreign Banks in Emerging Market Crises: Evidence from Malaysia Author/Editor: Detragiache, Enrica ; Gupta, Poonam Series: Working Paper No. 04/129 Date: July 1, 2004 Subject(s): Banks \| Malaysia \| Emerging markets \| Banking systems \| Financial crisis \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Emerging market banks \| foreign banks \| banking crises

Title: Parity Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Fast, Slow or Not at All? Author/Editor: Cashin, Paul ; McDermott, C. John Series: Working Paper No. 04/128 Date: July 1, 2004 Subject(s): Purchasing power parity \| Real effective exchange rates \| Flexible exchange rate policy \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Parity reversion \| real exchange rate; post-Bretton Woods

Title: Stress Testing Financial Systems: What to Do When the Governor Calls Author/Editor: Jones, Matthew T. ; Hilbers, Paul Louis Ceriel ; Slack, Graham L. Series: Working Paper No. 04/127 Notes: See also pamphlet on Stress Testing Financial Systems, published September 2004 Date: July 1, 2004 Subject(s): Financial soundness indicators \| Financial systems \| Financial Sector Assessment Program Author's keyword(s): Stress testing \| financial soundness indicators

Title: From Fixed to Float: Operational Aspects of Moving Towards Exchange Rate Flexibility Author/Editor: Duttagupta, Rupa ; Fernandez, Gilda ; Karacadag, Cem Series: Working Paper No. 04/126 Date: July 1, 2004 Subject(s): Exchange rate policy \| Foreign exchange \| Exchange markets \| Intervention \| Capital account liberalization \| Flexible exchange rate policy Author's keyword(s): Exchange rate policy \| foreign exchange markets \| intervention \| capital account liberalization

Title: Taxation Reforms and Changes in Revenue Assignments in China Author/Editor: Ahmad, Ehtisham ; Singh, Raju ; Lockwood, Ben Series: Working Paper No. 04/125 Date: July 1, 2004 Subject(s): Fiscal policy \| China \| Indirect taxation \| Value added tax \| Tax reforms \| China, People's Republic of Author's keyword(s): Fiscal Policy \| Indirect Taxation \| Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations \| China

Title: Corporate Financial Structure and Financial Stability Author/Editor: Davis, E. P. ; Stone, Mark R. Series: Working Paper No. 04/124 Date: July 1, 2004 Subject(s): Financial crisis \| Emerging markets \| Financial stability \| Gross domestic product Author's keyword(s): Corporate finance \| financial instability

Title: The Empirics of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Markets: The Cases of Mexico and Turkey Author/Editor: Guimarães, Roberto Pereira ; Karacadag, Cem Series: Working Paper No. 04/123 Date: July 1, 2004 Subject(s): Intervention \| Mexico \| Turkey \| Emerging markets \| Exchange market developments \| Foreign exchange reserves \| Floating exchange rates \| Capital flows \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Central Bank intervention \| foreign exchange market \| capital flow

Title: Monetary Policy, Monetary Areas, and Financial Development with Electronic Money Author/Editor: Arnone, Marco ; Bandiera, Luca Series: Working Paper No. 04/122 Date: July 1, 2004 Subject(s): Money \| Monetary policy \| Monetary unions \| Monetary operations Author's keyword(s): Electronic money \| monetary policy \| monetary unions

Title: The Contingent Claims Approach to Corporate Vulnerability Analysis: Estimating Default Risk and Economy-wide Risk Transfer Author/Editor: Gapen, Michael T. ; Gray, Dale F. ; Xiao, Yingbin ; Lim, Cheng Hoom Series: Working Paper No. 04/121 Date: July 1, 2004 Subject(s): Credit \| Brazil \| Thailand \| Risk premium \| Financial sector \| Public sector \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Contigent claims approach \| Corporate sector vulnerability \| Credit risk

Title: Private Finance and Public Policy Author/Editor: Schinasi, Garry J. Series: Working Paper No. 04/120 Date: July 1, 2004 Subject(s): Private sector \| Financial sector \| Markets \| Money \| Public finance Author's keyword(s): Finance \| Financial Stability \| Money \| Market Failures \| Public Goods

Title: A New Approach to Taxing Financial Intermediation Services Under a Value Added Tax Author/Editor: Zee, Howell H. Series: Working Paper No. 04/119 Date: July 1, 2004 Subject(s): Value added tax \| Taxation \| Financial systems Author's keyword(s): VAT \| financial services

Title: Why India Can Grow at 7 Percent a Year or More: Projections and Reflections Author/Editor: Rodrik, Dani ; Subramanian, Arvind Series: Working Paper No. 04/118 Date: July 1, 2004 Subject(s): Economic growth \| India \| Production Author's keyword(s): Growth \| institutions

Title: On Fixed and Variable Fiscal Surplus Rules Author/Editor: Basci, Erdem ; Ekinci, M. Fatih ; Yülek, Murat Â Series: Working Paper No. 04/117 Date: July 1, 2004 Subject(s): Debt \| Fiscal policy \| Debt restructuring \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Debt dynamics \| Monte-Carlo simulation \| fiscal policy rules \| debt sustainability

Title: Assessing the Assessment: A Critical Look at the June 2003 Assessment of the United Kingdom's Five Tests for Euro Entry Author/Editor: Cottarelli, Carlo ; Escolano, Julio Series: Working Paper No. 04/116 Date: July 1, 2004 Subject(s): Monetary policy \| United Kingdom \| Euro area Author's keyword(s): Assessing the Assessment \| Five Tests \| Euro Entry

Title: Ambiguity, Transparency, and Institutional Strength Author/Editor: Erbas, S. Nuri Series: Working Paper No. 04/115 Date: July 1, 2004 Subject(s): Transparency \| Forecasting models Author's keyword(s): Risk \| Ambiguity \| Transparency \| Vertical and Horizontal integration \| institutions

Title: Sources of Growth in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: A Cointegration Approach Author/Editor: Akitoby, Bernardin ; Cinyabuguma, Matthias Series: Working Paper No. 04/114 Date: July 1, 2004 Subject(s): Economic growth \| Congo, Democratic Republic of the \| Industrial production Author's keyword(s): Congo \| Growth accounting \| TFP \| production function

Title: An Approach to Long-Term Fiscal Policy Analysis Author/Editor: Dunaway, Steven Vincent ; N'Diaye, Papa M'B. P. Series: Working Paper No. 04/113 Date: July 1, 2004 Subject(s): Fiscal policy \| Australia \| Population \| Aging \| Health care \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Population aging \| Health Care \| Fiscal Policy

June 2004

Title: The Quality Effect: Does Financial Liberalization Improve the Allocation of Capital? Author/Editor: Abiad, Abdul ; Oomes, Nienke ; Ueda, Kenichi Series: Working Paper No. 04/112 Date: June 1, 2004 Subject(s): Capital \| India \| Jordan \| Korea, Republic of \| Malaysia \| Thailand \| Investment \| Credit \| Financial systems \| Emerging markets \| Forecasting models \| Republic of Korea Author's keyword(s): Tobin's Q \| financial liberalization \| investment \| allocative efficiency \| inequality

Title: Obstacles to Disinflation: What is the Role of Fiscal Expectations? Author/Editor: Celasun, Oya ; Gelos, Gaston ; Prati, Alessandro Series: Working Paper No. 04/111 Date: June 1, 2004 Subject(s): Disinflation \| Economic stabilization \| Inflation targeting \| Emerging markets \| Fiscal management \| Public finance \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Disinflation \| stabilization \| inflation Dynamics \| emerging markets \| expectation formation

Title: Financial Integration: A New Methodology and an Illustration Author/Editor: Flood, Robert P. ; Rose, Andrew K. Series: Working Paper No. 04/110 Date: June 1, 2004 Subject(s): Financial assets \| United States \| Stock markets \| Risk premium \| Asset prices \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Risk-free \| rate \| intertemporal \| assest \| market \| expected \| price \| stock \| conditional

Title: Performance of Western Hemisphere Trading Blocs: A Cost-Corrected Gravity Approach Author/Editor: Croce, Enzo ; Juan-Ramon, V. Hugo ; Zhu, Feng Series: Working Paper No. 04/109 Date: June 1, 2004 Subject(s): Trade \| Western Hemisphere \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Trading blocs \| externalities \| trade creation and trade diversion \| Western Hemisphere

Title: The End of Textiles Quotas: A Case Study of the Impact on Bangladesh Author/Editor: Mlachila, Montfort ; Yang, Yongzheng Series: Working Paper No. 04/108 Date: June 1, 2004 Subject(s): Import quotas \| Bangladesh \| Multifiber Arrangements \| World Trade Organization \| Access limits \| Export competitiveness \| Textiles Author's keyword(s): Bangladesh \| MFA \| ATC \| textiles \| clothing \| quotas

Title: Multinational Affiliates and Local Financial Markets Author/Editor: Lehmann, Alexander ; Sayek, Selin ; Kang, Hyoung Goo Series: Working Paper No. 04/107 Date: June 1, 2004 Subject(s): Foreign investment \| United States \| Debt refinancing \| Domestic debt \| Capital markets \| International financial system \| Data analysis \| Tax rates \| Exchange rate variability

Title: Challenging the Empirical Evidence from Present Value Models of the Current Account Author/Editor: Mercereau, Benoît ; Miniane, Jacques Series: Working Paper No. 04/106 Date: June 1, 2004 Subject(s): Current account \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Current account \| Present value model \| Model evaluation

Title: Financial Crisis, Economic Recovery and Banking Development in Russia, Ukraine, and Other FSU Countries Author/Editor: Huang, Haizhou ; Marin, Dalia ; Xu, Chenggang Series: Working Paper No. 04/105 Date: June 1, 2004 Subject(s): Financial crisis \| Russian Federation \| Ukraine \| Former Soviet Union \| Banking \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Banking development \| institutional trap \| financial crisis

Title: To Buy or Not to Buy? Uncertainty, Irreversibility and Heterogeneous Investment Dynamics in Italian Company Data Author/Editor: Bond, Stephen ; Lombardi, Domenico Series: Working Paper No. 04/104 Date: June 1, 2004 Subject(s): Investment incentives \| Italy \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Investment \| Real Options \| Panel Data

Title: Trade and Industrial Location with Heterogeneous Labor Author/Editor: Amiti, Mary ; Pissarides, Christopher A. Series: Working Paper No. 04/103 Date: June 1, 2004 Subject(s): Trade liberalization \| Labor mobility \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Agglomeration \| matching \| spatial mismatch \| inter-regional trade

Title: Public Spending Management and Macroeconomic Interdependence Author/Editor: Ganelli, Giovanni Series: Working Paper No. 04/102 Date: June 1, 2004 Subject(s): Government expenditures \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Public competition policies \| NOEM \| macroeconomic interdependence \| government spending

Title: Toward a Framework for Safeguarding Financial Stability Author/Editor: Houben, Aerdt G. F. J. ; Kakes, Jan ; Schinasi, Garry J. Series: Working Paper No. 04/101 Date: June 1, 2004 Subject(s): Financial stability \| Financial systems \| Public finance Author's keyword(s): Financial Stability \| Policy Framework

Title: Conditional Lending Under Altruism Author/Editor: Mourmouras, Alex ; Rangazas, Peter Series: Working Paper No. 04/100 Date: June 1, 2004 Subject(s): Conditionality \| Loans \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): IMF \| conditionality \| altruism \| time consistency \| Samaritan's dilemma

Title: Can Debt Crises Be Self-Fulfilling? Author/Editor: Chamon, Marcos Series: Working Paper No. 04/99 Date: June 1, 2004 Subject(s): Financial crisis \| External debt \| Public debt \| Crisis prevention \| Liquidity Author's keyword(s): Debt crises \| multiple equilibria \| liquidity \| financial innovation

Title: Toward More Effective Redistribution: Reform Options for Intergovernmental Transfers in China Author/Editor: Ahmad, Ehtisham ; Singh, Raju ; Fortuna, Mario Series: Working Paper No. 04/98 Date: June 1, 2004 Subject(s): Fiscal reforms \| China \| Income distribution \| Fiscal policy

Title: Achieving and Maintaining Price Stability in Nigeria Author/Editor: Batini, Nicoletta Series: Working Paper No. 04/97 Date: June 1, 2004 Subject(s): Price stabilization \| Nigeria \| Inflation targeting \| Dollarization \| Fiscal management Author's keyword(s): Inflation targeting \| dollarization \| fiscal dominance \| Nigeria

Title: Robust versus Optimal Rules in Monetary Policy: A Note Author/Editor: Demertzis, Maria ; Tieman, Alexander F. Series: Working Paper No. 04/96 Date: June 1, 2004 Subject(s): Monetary policy \| Economic models \| Risk premium Author's keyword(s): Monetary Policy \| Model Uncertainty \| Policy Rules

Title: Economic Performance over the Conflict Cycle Author/Editor: Staines, Nicholas Series: Working Paper No. 04/95 Date: June 1, 2004 Subject(s): Financial assistance \| Congo, Democratic Republic of the \| Multilateral aid \| Development assistance Author's keyword(s): Conflict; post-conflict; war; economic impact; macroeconomic stabilization; aid; cold war

Title: Money-Based Versus Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: Is There Space for Political Opportunism? Author/Editor: Aisen, Ari Series: Working Paper No. 04/94 Date: June 1, 2004 Subject(s): Stabilization measures \| Anti-inflation policy \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Inflation Stabilization \| Norminal Anchors \| Political Opportunism \| Elections

May 2004

Title: Debt Accumulation in the CIS-7 Countries: Bad Luck, Bad Policies, or Bad Advice Author/Editor: Helbling, Thomas ; Mody, Ashoka ; Sahay, Ratna Series: Working Paper No. 04/93 Date: May 1, 2004 Subject(s): Debt \| Armenia \| Azerbaijan \| Georgia \| Kyrgyz Republic \| Moldova \| Tajikistan \| Uzbekistan \| Transition economies \| Economic growth \| Structural adjustment Author's keyword(s): Transition economies \| growth \| debt problems \| structural reforms.

Title: A Cointegration Model for Search Equilibrium Wage Formation Author/Editor: Broersma, Lourens ; den Butter, F. A. G. ; Kock, Udo Series: Working Paper No. 04/92 Date: May 1, 2004 Subject(s): Wages \| Labor markets \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Wage curve \| labor market flows \| cointegration model

Title: Capital Income Taxation and Economic Growth in Open Economies Author/Editor: Palomba, Geremia Series: Working Paper No. 04/91 Date: May 1, 2004 Subject(s): Capital \| Income taxes \| Economic growth \| Taxation \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Open economies \| endogenous growth \| capital income taxation

Title: Forecasting Thailand's Core Inflation Author/Editor: Sun, Tao Series: Working Paper No. 04/90 Date: May 1, 2004 Subject(s): Forecasting models \| Thailand \| Inflation Author's keyword(s): Forecasting \| Core Inflation

Title: Does Regulatory Governance Matter for Financial System Stability? An Empirical Analysis Author/Editor: Das, Udaibir S. ; Quintyn, Marc ; Chenard, Kina Series: Working Paper No. 04/89 Date: May 1, 2004 Subject(s): Governance \| Financial systems \| Bank supervision \| Transparency \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Institutions \| governance \| financial regulation and supervision \| financial stability

Title: Productivity Shocks, Learning, and Open Economy Dynamics Author/Editor: Miniane, Jacques Series: Working Paper No. 04/88 Date: May 1, 2004 Subject(s): Productivity \| Current account \| Savings \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Learning \| current account dynamics

Title: Revisions Policy for Official Statistics: A Matter of Governance Author/Editor: Carson, Carol S. ; Khawaja, Sarmad ; Morrison, Thomas K. Series: Working Paper No. 04/87 Date: May 1, 2004 Subject(s): Data collection \| Statistics \| Governance \| Monetary policy Author's keyword(s): Data quality \| revisions policy \| macroeconomic statistics

Title: Japan's Distressed Debt Market Author/Editor: Ohashi, Kazunari ; Singh, Manmohan Series: Working Paper No. 04/86 Date: May 1, 2004 Subject(s): Debt \| Japan \| Emerging markets \| Debt restructuring Author's keyword(s): Non-performing loans \| sub-performing loans \| distressed debt investors \| vulture funds

Title: Interest Rate Defenses of Currency Pegs Author/Editor: Sole, Juan Series: Working Paper No. 04/85 Date: May 1, 2004 Subject(s): Interest rates \| Currency pegs \| Exchange rate regimes Author's keyword(s): Interest rates \| exchange rates \| currency crises

Title: Does Financial Globalization Induce Better Macroeconomic Policies? Author/Editor: Tytell, Irina ; Wei, Shang-Jin Series: Working Paper No. 04/84 Date: May 1, 2004 Subject(s): Globalization \| Financial sector \| Inflation targeting \| Capital flows Author's keyword(s): Discipline effect \| capital flows \| mood swings \| inflation \| and deficit

Title: Angola's Fragile Stabilization Author/Editor: Gasha, Jose Giancarlo ; Pastor, Gonzalo C. Series: Working Paper No. 04/83 Date: May 1, 2004 Subject(s): Economic stabilization \| Angola \| Monetary policy \| Fiscal policy Author's keyword(s): Stabilization policy \| monetary and exchange rate policy \| fiscal policy

Title: Foreign Bank Supervision and Challenges to Emerging Market Supervisors Author/Editor: Song, Inwon Series: Working Paper No. 04/82 Date: May 1, 2004 Subject(s): Bank Supervision \| International banking \| Emerging markets \| Financial sector Author's keyword(s): Banking Supervision \| Foreign Bank \| Financial Regulation

Title: The WTO and the Poorest Countries: The Stark Reality Author/Editor: Mattoo, Aaditya ; Subramanian, Arvind Series: Working Paper No. 04/81 Date: May 1, 2004 Subject(s): Trade \| World Trade Organization \| Developing countries Author's keyword(s): Developing countries \| Doha Round \| preferences \| single undertaking \| WTO

Title: Political Instability and Growth: The Central African Republic Author/Editor: Ghura, Dhaneshwar ; Mercereau, Benoît Series: Working Paper No. 04/80 Date: May 1, 2004 Subject(s): Economic conditions \| Central African Republic \| Economic growth Author's keyword(s): Political instability \| Economic Growth \| Conflicts; External Shocks

Title: Economic Geography and Wages: The Case of Indonesia Author/Editor: Amiti, Mary ; Cameron, Lisa Ann Series: Working Paper No. 04/79 Date: May 1, 2004 Subject(s): Economic conditions \| Indonesia \| Wages \| Demand Author's keyword(s): Agglomeration \| vertical linkages \| economic geography \| cost linkages \| demand linkages

Title: Empirical Modeling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies Author/Editor: Dungey, Mardi ; Fry, Renee ; González-Hermosillo, Brenda ; Martin, Vance Series: Working Paper No. 04/78 Date: May 1, 2004 Subject(s): Financial crisis \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Contagion \| financial crises

Title: From "Hindu Growth" to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition Author/Editor: Rodrik, Dani ; Subramanian, Arvind Series: Working Paper No. 04/77 Date: May 1, 2004 Subject(s): Productivity \| India \| Economic growth \| Trade liberalization \| Demand \| Public investment \| Agricultural production \| Manufacturing Author's keyword(s): Productivity growth; India; liberalization; manufacturing; probusiness

Title: Can China Grow Faster? A Diagnosis on the Fragmentation of the Domestic Capital Market Author/Editor: Wei, Shang-Jin ; Boyreau-Debray, Genevieve Series: Working Paper No. 04/76 Date: May 1, 2004 Subject(s): Capital markets \| China \| Capital flows \| Financial sector \| Economic growth \| China, People's Republic of Author's keyword(s): Chinese economy \| internal capital market; financial integration; Feldstein-Horioka \| risk sharing

Title: The IMF and the Force of History: Ten Events and Ten Ideas that Have Shaped the Institution Author/Editor: Boughton, James M. Series: Working Paper No. 04/75 Date: May 1, 2004 Subject(s): Fund \| Fund history \| Financial institutions \| International capital markets \| Debt problems \| Monetary measures \| Balance of payments \| Floating exchange rates \| Supply-side policy \| Inflation targeting \| Globalization Author's keyword(s): IMF \| postwar economic history \| international financial institutions

Title: The Elusive Gains from International Financial Integration Author/Editor: Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier ; Jeanne, Olivier Series: Working Paper No. 04/74 Date: May 1, 2004 Subject(s): Capital flows \| International financial system \| International capital markets \| Developing countries \| Consumption \| Productivity \| Economic growth \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Capital flows \| international financial integration \| growth \| capital scarcity \| neoclassical model \| human capital

April 2004

Title: Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive? Author/Editor: Cheung, Yin-Wong ; Chinn, Menzie David ; Garcia Pascual, Antonio Series: Working Paper No. 04/73 Date: April 1, 2004 Subject(s): Exchange rates \| Monetary measures \| Productivity \| Interest rates \| Purchasing power parity \| Forecasting models Author's keyword(s): exchange rates \| monetary model \| productivity \| interest rate parity \| purchasing power parity \| forecasting performance

Title: Are Uniform Tariffs Optimal? Author/Editor: Amiti, Mary Series: Working Paper No. 04/72 Date: April 1, 2004 Subject(s): Tariffs \| Tariff structures \| Trade liberalization \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Agglomeration \| downstream firms \| tariffs \| trade liberalisation \| upstream firms \| vertical links

Title: Emerging Strains in GCC Labor Markets Author/Editor: Fasano-Filho, Ugo ; Goyal, Rishi Series: Working Paper No. 04/71 Date: April 1, 2004 Subject(s): Labor market policy \| Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf \| Unemployment \| Labor mobility \| Oil sector Author's keyword(s): GCC countries \| labor market policies \| matching function framework

Title: Credit Rationing in Emerging Economies' Access to Global Capital Markets Author/Editor: Zoli, Edda Series: Working Paper No. 04/70 Date: April 1, 2004 Subject(s): Credit ceilings \| International capital markets \| Public debt \| External debt \| External borrowing \| Risk premium \| Interest costs \| Supply elasticity \| Emerging markets \| Financial crisis \| Economic models \| Access to capital markets Author's keyword(s): Sovereign debt \| international lending \| moral hazard \| financial crises

Title: Estimation of Economic Growth in France Using Business Survey Data Author/Editor: Kabundi, Alain N. Series: Working Paper No. 04/69 Date: April 1, 2004 Subject(s): Economic growth \| France \| Forecasting models \| Data collection \| Data analysis Author's keyword(s): Dynamic factor models \| survey data \| economic forecasting

Title: A Bayesian Approach to Model Uncertainty Author/Editor: Tsangarides, Charalambos G. Series: Working Paper No. 04/68 Date: April 1, 2004 Subject(s): Forecasting models \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Dynamic Panel Estimation \| Bayesian Model Averaging

Title: New Estimates of Government Net Capital Stocks for 22 OECD Countries 1960-2001 Author/Editor: Kamps, Christophe Series: Working Paper No. 04/67 Date: April 1, 2004 Subject(s): Capital goods \| OECD \| Public investment \| Productivity Author's keyword(s): Capital stock \| public capital \| perpetual inventory method \| OECD countries

Title: Prudential Responses to De Facto Dollarization Author/Editor: Ize, Alain ; Powell, Andrew Series: Working Paper No. 04/66 Date: April 1, 2004 Subject(s): Dollarization \| Monetary policy \| Financial crisis \| Financial systems \| Currencies \| Exchange risk \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Dollarization \| monetary policy \| banking crises \| currency risk.

Title: The Effects of Exchange Rate Change on the Trade Balance in Croatia Author/Editor: Stucka, Tihomir Series: Working Paper No. 04/65 Date: April 1, 2004 Subject(s): Balance of trade \| Croatia \| Exchange rate depreciation \| Exchange rate adjustments \| Transition economies \| Trade models \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): J-Curve \| trade balance \| transitional economies

Title: Overview of the Indian Corporate Sector: 1989-2002 Author/Editor: Topalova, Petia Series: Working Paper No. 04/64 Date: April 1, 2004 Subject(s): Financial sector \| India \| Liquidity \| Financial crisis \| Corporate sector Author's keyword(s): Indian corporate sector \| Indian financial sector

Title: Balance Sheets, Exchange Rate Policy, and Welfare Author/Editor: Elekdag, Selim ; Tchakarov, Ivan Series: Working Paper No. 04/63 Date: April 1, 2004 Subject(s): Exchange rate policy \| Capital markets \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Exchange rate policy \| financial accelerator \| debt-to-GDP threshold \| second-order approximation

Title: Fiscal Indulgence in Central Europe: Loss of the External Anchor Author/Editor: Berger, Helge ; Kopits, George ; Székely, István P. Series: Working Paper No. 04/62 Date: April 1, 2004 Subject(s): Fiscal policy \| Europe \| European Union \| European Economic and Monetary Union \| Fiscal reforms \| Budget deficits \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Fiscal policy \| EU economic and monetary union \| game theoretic approach

Title: Derivative Market Competition: OTC Versus Organized Derivative Exchanges Author/Editor: Nystedt, Jens Series: Working Paper No. 04/61 Date: April 1, 2004 Subject(s): Securities markets \| United States \| Securities regulations \| Exchange markets \| Competition \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Derivative market competition \| security design \| regulatory reform

Title: Economic Integration, Sectoral Diversification, and Exchange Rate Policy in a Developing Economy Author/Editor: Srour, Gabriel Series: Working Paper No. 04/60 Date: April 1, 2004 Subject(s): Exchange rate policy \| Developing countries \| Economic models \| Production \| Prices \| Wages \| Trade \| Price elasticity \| Demand elasticity \| Consumption \| Economic stabilization Author's keyword(s): Economic integration \| exchange rate policy \| diversification

Title: How Has NAFTA Affected the Mexican Economy? Review and Evidence Author/Editor: Kose, M. Ayhan ; Meredith, Guy ; Towe, Christopher M. Series: Working Paper No. 04/59 Date: April 1, 2004 Subject(s): International trade agreements \| Mexico \| Economic growth \| Business cycles Author's keyword(s): NAFTA \| Mexico \| Growth \| Trade \| Regional Trade \| Business Cycles

Title: Does SDDS Subscription Reduce Borrowing Costs for Emerging Market Economies Author/Editor: Cady, John Series: Working Paper No. 04/58 Date: April 1, 2004 Subject(s): Public debt \| Emerging markets \| International capital markets \| External borrowing \| Data analysis \| Bond issues \| Transparency \| Standards and codes \| Special Data Dissemination Standard Author's keyword(s): Sovereign debt and yield spreads \| international capital markets \| standards and codes \| data transparency \| SDDS

Title: Measuring a Roller Coaster: Evidence on the Finnish Output Gap Author/Editor: Billmeier, Andreas Series: Working Paper No. 04/57 Date: April 1, 2004 Subject(s): Production \| Finland \| Inflation \| Economic forecasting Author's keyword(s): Finland \| output gap \| potential output \| inflation forecasting

Title: Growth in the Middle East and North Africa Author/Editor: Hakura, Dalia Series: Working Paper No. 04/56 Date: April 1, 2004 Subject(s): Economic growth \| Middle East \| North Africa \| Oil revenues Author's keyword(s): Economic growth \| Middle East and North Africa \| oil \| institutions \| conflicts

Title: Banking in Sub-Saharan Africa: What Went Wrong? Author/Editor: Daumont, Roland ; Le Gall, Françoise ; Leroux, François Series: Working Paper No. 04/55 Date: April 1, 2004 Subject(s): Banking systems \| Africa \| Financial crisis \| Intervention \| Bank regulations Author's keyword(s): Banking Crises \| Africa

Title: Boom-Bust Phases in Asset Prices and Fiscal Policy Behavior Author/Editor: Jaeger, Albert ; Schuknecht, Ludger Series: Working Paper No. 04/54 Date: April 1, 2004 Subject(s): Business cycles \| Fiscal policy \| Asset prices \| Public debt \| Budget deficits Author's keyword(s): Boom-bust cycles \| fiscal policy \| asset prices \| cyclical adjustment \| deficit bias

March 2004

Title: Sovereign Debt Defaults and Financing Needs Author/Editor: Kruger, Mark ; Messmacher, Miguel Series: Working Paper No. 04/53 Date: March 1, 2004 Subject(s): External debt \| Financial crisis \| Cofinancing \| Economic indicators \| Crisis prevention Author's keyword(s): Sovereign debt defaults; financial crisis; early warning indicators; debt sustainability

Title: Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice? Author/Editor: Berg, Andrew ; Borensztein, Eduardo ; Pattillo, Catherine A. Series: Working Paper No. 04/52 Date: March 1, 2004 Subject(s): Crisis prevention \| Currencies \| Economic indicators \| Economic forecasting \| Forecasting models \| Balance of payments need Author's keyword(s): Currency crises \| vulnerability indicators \| crisis prediction \| forecasting accuracy \| balance of payments crisis

Title: Missing Link: Volatility and the Debt Intolerance Paradox Author/Editor: Catão, Luis ; Kapur, Sandeep Series: Working Paper No. 04/51 Date: March 1, 2004 Subject(s): External debt \| Emerging markets Author's keyword(s): Sovereign debt \| macroeconomic volatility \| emerging markets

Title: The Role of Stock Markets in Current Account Dynamics: A Time Series Approach Author/Editor: Mercereau, Benoît Series: Working Paper No. 04/50 Date: March 1, 2004 Subject(s): Current account \| United States \| Stock markets \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Current account \| stock markets

Title: Aid and the Dutch Disease in Low-Income Countries: Informed Diagnoses for Prudent Prognoses Author/Editor: Nkusu, Mwanza Series: Working Paper No. 04/49 Date: March 1, 2004 Subject(s): Development assistance \| Exchange rate appreciation \| Economic growth \| Poverty \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Foreign aid \| exchange rate \| economic growth \| and poverty

Title: Nonresident Deposits in India: In Search of Return? Author/Editor: Gordon, James P. F. ; Gupta, Poonam Series: Working Paper No. 04/48 Date: March 1, 2004 Subject(s): Transfers of foreigners income \| India \| Foreign currency deposit accounts \| Capital flows Author's keyword(s): Nonreisent Deposits \| Foreign Currency Deposits \| Capital Flows \| India \| NRIs

Title: When is Growth Pro-Poor? Cross-Country Evidence Author/Editor: Kraay, Aart Series: Working Paper No. 04/47 Date: March 1, 2004 Subject(s): Poverty \| Poverty reduction \| Income distribution \| Economic growth \| Developing countries Author's keyword(s): Poverty \| growth

Title: Domestic Debt Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa Author/Editor: Christensen, Jakob Series: Working Paper No. 04/46 Date: March 1, 2004 Subject(s): Domestic debt \| Sub-Saharan Africa \| Heavily indebted poor countries Author's keyword(s): Domestic debt \| sub-Saharan Africa \| crowding out \| debt sustainability

Title: A Multivariate Filter for Measuring Potential Output and the NAIRU: Application to the Czech Republic Author/Editor: Benes, Jaromir ; N'Diaye, Papa M'B. P. Series: Working Paper No. 04/45 Date: March 1, 2004 Subject(s): Production \| Czech Republic \| Unemployment \| Monetary policy \| Fiscal policy \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Phillips curve \| Unemployment \| Monetary Policy \| Fiscal Policy

Title: Debt Crises and the Development of International Capital Markets Author/Editor: Pescatori, Andrea ; Sy, Amadou N. R. Series: Working Paper No. 04/44 Date: March 1, 2004 Subject(s): External debt \| Debt service payments \| Bond markets \| Capital markets \| Emerging markets Author's keyword(s): Bond spreads \| capital markets \| debt crisis \| default \| emerging markets

Title: India in the 1980s and 1990s: A Triumph of Reforms Author/Editor: Panagariya, Arvind Series: Working Paper No. 04/43 Date: March 1, 2004 Subject(s): Economic reforms \| India \| China \| Economic growth \| China, People's Republic of Author's keyword(s): India \| reforms \| growth \| liberalization \| 1980s \| 1990s

Title: Public Expenditure Management in Francophone Africa: A Cross-Country Analysis Author/Editor: Moussa, Yaya Series: Working Paper No. 04/42 Date: March 1, 2004 Subject(s): Government expenditures \| France \| Africa \| Budgeting \| Technical assistance \| Economic models \| Cameroon \| Burkina Faso \| Benin \| Niger \| Chad \| Mali \| Guinea \| Senegal \| Madagascar \| Côte d'Ivoire \| Togo \| Congo, Republic of Author's keyword(s): Budgeting \| Public Expenditure Management \| Technical Assistance \| Africa

Title: Forecasting Commodity Prices: Futures Versus Judgment Author/Editor: Bowman, Chakriya ; Husain, Aasim M. Series: Working Paper No. 04/41 Date: March 1, 2004 Subject(s): Commodity prices \| Forecasting models Author's keyword(s): Commodity prices \| futures \| cointergration \| error correction \| forecast

Title: And Schumpeter Said, "This Is How Thou Shalt Grow": Further Quest For Economic Growth in Poor Countries Author/Editor: Beaugrand, Philippe Series: Working Paper No. 04/40 Date: March 1, 2004 Subject(s): Economic growth \| Developing countries Author's keyword(s): Developing Countries \| Growth \| Innovation \| Entrepreneurship \| Schumpeter \| J.A.

Title: Autocorrelation-Corrected Standard Errors in Panel Probits: An Application to Currency Crisis Prediction Author/Editor: Berg, Andrew ; Coke, Rebecca N. Series: Working Paper No. 04/39 Date: March 1, 2004 Subject(s): Crisis prevention \| Currencies \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Currency crisis \| early warning systems \| serial correlation \| panel probit

Title: The Political Economy of Conditional and Unconditional Foreign Assistance: Grants vs. Loan Rollovers Author/Editor: Mourmouras, Alex ; Mayer, Wolfgang Series: Working Paper No. 04/38 Date: March 1, 2004 Subject(s): Political economy \| Conditionality \| Financial assistance \| Economic models \| Loans Author's keyword(s): IMF \| conditionality \| common agency models \| grants vs. loans

Title: Competitiveness in Bulgaria: An Assessment of the Real Effective Exchange Rate Author/Editor: Chobanov, Dimitar ; Sorsa, Piritta Series: Working Paper No. 04/37 Date: March 1, 2004 Subject(s): Real effective exchange rates \| Bulgaria \| Economic models \| Terms of trade \| Exchange rate assessments Author's keyword(s): Real effective exchange rates \| fundamental determinants \| NATREX \| BEER \| Bulgaria \| Competitiveness

Title: China: International Trade and WTO Accession Author/Editor: Rumbaugh, Thomas ; Blancher, Nicolas R. Series: Working Paper No. 04/36 Date: March 1, 2004 Subject(s): International trade \| China \| World Trade Organization \| China, People's Republic of Author's keyword(s): China \| International Trade \| WTO

February 2004

Title: Liberalized Markets Have More Stable Exchange Rates: Short-Run Evidence from Four Transition Countries Author/Editor: Bulir, Ales Series: Working Paper No. 04/35 Date: February 1, 2004 Subject(s): Exchange rates \| Markets \| Transition economies \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Exchange rate \| endogenous liquidity \| error-correction mechanism \| nonlinearity

Title: The Determinants of International Portfolio Holdings and Home Bias Author/Editor: Faruqee, Hamid ; Li, Shujing ; Yan, Isabel K. Series: Working Paper No. 04/34 Date: February 1, 2004 Subject(s): International capital markets \| Capital flows \| Capital inflows \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): International portfolio choice \| Home bias \| Transaction cost \| Information cost

Title: An Option-Based Approach to Bank Vulnerabilities in Emerging Markets Author/Editor: Chan-Lau, Jorge A. ; Jobert, Arnaud ; Kong, Janet Series: Working Paper No. 04/33 Date: February 1, 2004 Subject(s): Banks \| Emerging markets \| Financial crisis Author's keyword(s): Distance-to-default \| banks \| emerging markets

Title: The Decentralization Dilemma in India Author/Editor: Purfield, Catriona Series: Working Paper No. 04/32 Date: February 1, 2004 Subject(s): Fiscal reforms \| India \| Fiscal policy \| Borrowing \| Debt Author's keyword(s): Fiscal Policy \| intergovernmental fiscal relations \| India \| panel econometrics

Title: Imperfect Capital Mobility in an Open Economy Model of Capital Accumulation Author/Editor: Klyuev, Vladimir Series: Working Paper No. 04/31 Date: February 1, 2004 Subject(s): Real effective exchange rates \| Capital inflows \| Capital accumulation \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Real Exchange Rate \| Capital Inflows \| Capital Accumulation \| Capital Mobility

Title: Fiscal Sustainability in Heavily Indebted Countries Dependent on Nonrenewable Resources: The Case of Gabon Author/Editor: Ntamatungiro, Joseph Series: Working Paper No. 04/30 Date: February 1, 2004 Subject(s): Fiscal policy \| Gabon \| Heavily indebted poor countries \| Oil \| Debt Author's keyword(s): Gabon \| oil \| debt \| fiscal sustainability \| savings fund \| intergenerational equity

Title: Inflation Dynamics in the Dominican Republic Author/Editor: Williams, Oral ; Adedeji, Olumuyiwa Series: Working Paper No. 04/29 Date: February 1, 2004 Subject(s): Inflation \| Dominican Republic \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Inflation \| Cointegration \| Error-Correction

Title: Trade Liberalization and Firm Productivity: The Case of India Author/Editor: Topalova, Petia Series: Working Paper No. 04/28 Date: February 1, 2004 Subject(s): Trade liberalization \| India \| Productivity Author's keyword(s): Trade policy \| firm productivity \| Indian manufacturing \| endogeneity of protection

Title: Equity Prices, Credit Default Swaps, and Bond Spreads in Emerging Markets Author/Editor: Chan-Lau, Jorge A. ; Kim, Yoon Sook Series: Working Paper No. 04/27 Date: February 1, 2004 Subject(s): Stock markets \| Credit \| Bonds \| Emerging markets \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Credit derivatives \| bond spreads \| equity prices \| price discovery \| equilibrium \| emerging markets

Title: How Much Do Trading Partners Matter for Economic Growth? Author/Editor: Arora, Vivek B. ; Vamvakidis, Athanasios Series: Working Paper No. 04/26 Date: February 1, 2004 Subject(s): International trade \| Economic growth Author's keyword(s): International trade \| economic growth

Title: Rational Speculation, Financial Crises, and Optimal Policy Responses Author/Editor: Surti, Jay Series: Working Paper No. 04/25 Date: February 1, 2004 Subject(s): Central bank policy \| Financial crisis \| Trade \| Markets \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Preemptive Trade \| Coordination Risk \| Financial Crises \| Market Size Effect

Title: Monetary Magic? How the Fed Improved the Flexibility of the U.S. Economy Author/Editor: Bayoumi, Tamim ; Sgherri, Silvia Series: Working Paper No. 04/24 Date: February 1, 2004 Subject(s): Monetary policy \| United States \| Inflation \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Inflation dynamics; Monetary policy; Kalman filter

Title: Trade Patterns Among Industrial Countries: Their Relationship to Technology Differences and Capital Mobility Author/Editor: Saito, Mika Series: Working Paper No. 04/23 Date: February 1, 2004 Subject(s): Labor \| Developed countries \| Productivity \| Capital markets \| Trade \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Comparative advantage \| total factor prod

Title: Armington Elasticities in Intermediate Inputs Trade: A Problem in Using Multilateral Trade Data Author/Editor: Saito, Mika Series: Working Paper No. 04/22 Date: February 1, 2004 Subject(s): Trade \| Bilateral trade \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): The Armington Model \| Intermediate Inputs Trade \| Panel Data

Title: Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Rules in an Open Economy Author/Editor: Parrado, Eric Series: Working Paper No. 04/21 Date: February 1, 2004 Subject(s): Inflation targeting \| Exchange rates \| Monetary policy \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): inflation targeting \| open economy \| exchange rates \| monetary policy rules

Title: Does Spousal Labor Smooth Fluctuations in Husbands' Earnings? The Role of Liquidity Constraints Author/Editor: Garcia-Escribano, Mercedes Series: Working Paper No. 04/20 Date: February 1, 2004 Subject(s): Labor \| Liquidity \| Consumption \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Female labor supply \| spousal labor participation \| consumption smoothing \| liquidity constraints

Title: Six Puzzles in Electronic Money and Banking Author/Editor: Fullenkamp, Connel ; Nsouli, Saleh M. Series: Working Paper No. 04/19 Date: February 1, 2004 Subject(s): Banking \| Monetary policy Author's keyword(s): Electronic money \| electronic banking \| monetary policy

Title: China: Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations Author/Editor: Wang, Tao Series: Working Paper No. 04/18 Date: February 1, 2004 Subject(s): Real effective exchange rates \| China \| China, People's Republic of Author's keyword(s): China \| real exchange rate \| structural VAR

January 2004

Title: Interest Rate Volatility and Risk in Indian Banking Author/Editor: Patnaik, Ila ; Shah, Ajai Series: Working Paper No. 04/17 Date: January 1, 2004 Subject(s): Interest rates \| India \| Banks Author's keyword(s): Interest volatility \| risk \| Indian banks

Title: Foreign Exchange Market Volatility in EU Accession Countries in the Run-up to Euro Adoption: Weathering Uncharted Waters Author/Editor: Kóbor, Ádám ; Székely, István P. Series: Working Paper No. 04/16 Date: January 1, 2004 Subject(s): Exchange markets \| Czech Republic \| Hungary \| Poland \| Slovak Republic \| Euro \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Markov regime-switching model \| foreign exchange market volatility \| EU accession countries

Title: What Are the Channels Through Which External Debt Affects Growth? Author/Editor: Pattillo, Catherine A. ; Poirson, Hélène ; Ricci, Luca Antonio Series: Working Paper No. 04/15 Date: January 1, 2004 Subject(s): External debt \| Economic growth Author's keyword(s): Growth \| External Debt \| Growth Accounting

Title: Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Euro Area: The Role of Asymmetric Pricing Behavior Author/Editor: Faruqee, Hamid Series: Working Paper No. 04/14 Date: January 1, 2004 Subject(s): Exchange rates \| Prices \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Exchange Rate Pass-Through \| New Open Economy Macroeconomic Models

Title: How Private Creditors Fared in Emerging Debt Markets, 1970-2000 Author/Editor: Klingen, Christoph ; Weder, Beatrice ; Zettelmeyer, Jeromin Series: Working Paper No. 04/13 Date: January 1, 2004 Subject(s): Debt \| Capital flows \| emerging markets \| Algeria \| Argentina \| Brazil \| Chile \| Colombia \| Côte d'Ivoire \| Ecuador \| Indonesia \| Jordan \| Lebanon \| Malaysia \| Mexico \| Morocco \| Nigeria \| Pakistan \| Panama \| Peru \| Philippines \| Republic of Korea \| Thailand \| Turkey \| Venezuela, República Bolivariana de Author's keyword(s): Sovereign debt \| debt crises \| returns \| capital flows

Title: The Late 1990s Financial Crisis in Ecuador: Institutional Weaknesses, Fiscal Rigidities, and Financial Dollarization at Work Author/Editor: Jácome, Luis Ignacio Series: Working Paper No. 04/12 Date: January 1, 2004 Subject(s): Financial crisis \| Ecuador \| Fiscal policy \| Dollarization Author's keyword(s): Banking crisis \| institutions \| fiscal policy \| monetary policy \| dollarization \| blanket guarantee

Title: Banking Competition, Risk, and Regulation Author/Editor: Bolt, Wilko ; Tieman, Alexander F. Series: Working Paper No. 04/11 Date: January 1, 2004 Subject(s): Banking \| Competition \| Bank regulations \| Capital \| Netherlands Author's keyword(s): Banking Competition \| risk profile \| failure rate \| capital adequacy requirements

Title: Singapore's Unique Monetary Policy: How Does it Work? Author/Editor: Parrado, Eric Series: Working Paper No. 04/10 Date: January 1, 2004 Subject(s): Monetary policy \| Singapore \| Exchange rate policy \| Inflation Author's keyword(s): exchange rate \| inflation \| monetary policy rules \| Singapore

Title: Timing of International Bailouts Author/Editor: Kim, Se-Jik Series: Working Paper No. 04/9 Date: January 1, 2004 Subject(s): Loans \| Borrowing \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): International lender of last resort \| crisis contagion \| moral hazard \| information asymmetry

Title: Fiscal Surveillance in a Petro Zone: The Case of the CEMAC Author/Editor: Wiegand, Johannes Series: Working Paper No. 04/8 Date: January 1, 2004 Subject(s): Fiscal policy \| Oil \| Monetary unions \| Central African Republic \| Equatorial Guinea \| Chad \| Gabon \| Cameroon \| Congo, Republic of Author's keyword(s): Fiscal policy \| oil \| macroeconomic surveillance