IMF Working Papers

IMF Working Papers by Date

Sort by: Title | Author | Date

December 2008

Title: Monetary Policy and Relative Price Shocks in South Africa and Other Inflation Targeters Author/Editor: Cuevas, Alfredo ; Topak, Secil Series: Working Paper No. 08/289 Date: December 1, 2008 Subject(s): Monetary policy \| South Africa \| External shocks \| Inflation targeting \| Pricing policy \| Central banks \| Energy prices \| Commodity prices Author's keyword(s): Monetary policy; supply shocks; relative prices; inflation; Taylor rules.

Title: Is Monetary Policy Effective When Credit is Low? Author/Editor: Saizar, Ana Carolina ; Chalk, Nigel Andrew Series: Working Paper No. 08/288 Date: December 1, 2008 Subject(s): Monetary policy \| Credit \| Interest rates \| Inflation \| Flexible exchange rates \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Monetary Policy \| Bank Credit \| Vector Auto Regression \| Inflation

Title: Explaining Episodes of Growth Accelerations, Decelerations, and Collapses in Western Africa Author/Editor: Imam, Patrick A. ; Salinas, Gonzalo Series: Working Paper No. 08/287 Date: December 1, 2008 Subject(s): Economic growth \| West Africa \| Economic reforms \| External shocks \| Terms of trade \| Transfers of foreigners income \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Growth \| Acceleration \| Deceleration \| Africa

Title: Volatility Spillovers and Contagion from Mature to Emerging Stock Markets Author/Editor: Beirne, John ; Maria Caporale, Guglielmo ; Schulze-Ghattas, Marianne ; Spagnolo, Nicola Series: Working Paper No. 08/286 Date: December 1, 2008 Subject(s): Spillovers \| Stock markets \| Developed countries \| Emerging markets \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Volatility spillovers \| Contagion \| Stock markets \| Emerging markets

Title: The Impact of Introducing a Minimum Wage on Business Cycle Volatility: A Structural Analysis for Hong Kong SAR Author/Editor: Porter, Nathaniel John ; Vitek, Francis Series: Working Paper No. 08/285 Date: December 1, 2008 Subject(s): Minimum wage \| Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China \| Business cycles \| External shocks \| Exchange rate regimes \| Monetary policy \| Inflation \| Wage indexation \| Labor market policy \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Minimum wage \| indexation mechanism \| business cycle volatility \| dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model \| unobserved components model \| market flexibility \| small open economy

Title: New Shocks, Exchange Rates and EquityPrices Author/Editor: Matsumoto, Akito ; Cova, Pietro ; Pisani, Massimiliano ; Rebucci, Alessandro Series: Working Paper No. 08/284 Date: December 1, 2008 Subject(s): External shocks \| Exchange rates \| Stock prices \| Productivity \| Monetary policy \| Asset prices \| Floating exchange rates \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): News Shocks \| Exchange Rates \| Equity Prices \| Productivity \| Monetary Policy \| Persistence

Title: Cross-Border Coordination Of Prudential Supervision And Deposit Guarantees Author/Editor: Hardy, Daniel C. L. ; Nieto, María Series: Working Paper No. 08/283 Date: December 1, 2008 Subject(s): Deposit insurance \| Europe \| European Economic and Monetary Union \| Economic integration \| Bank supervision \| Banking sector \| Social safety nets \| International cooperation Author's keyword(s): Deposit guarantees \| bank supervision \| cross-border coordination \| EU

Title: Expenditure Ceilings - A Survey Author/Editor: Ljungman, Gösta Series: Working Paper No. 08/282 Date: December 1, 2008 Subject(s): Government expenditures \| Budgetary policy \| Finland \| Netherlands \| Sweden \| Fiscal policy \| Political economy \| Fiscal sustainability \| Inflation Author's keyword(s): Expenditure ceilings \| fiscal rules \| fiscal policy

Title: Can Regional Cross-listings Accelerate Stock Market Development? Empirical Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa Author/Editor: Adelegan, O. Janet Series: Working Paper No. 08/281 Date: December 1, 2008 Subject(s): Stock markets \| Sub-Saharan Africa \| Money markets \| Capital markets \| Economic integration \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): regional approach; stock markets; events study; Sub-Saharan Africa

Title: A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices Author/Editor: Carabenciov, Ioan ; Ermolaev, Igor ; Freedman, Charles ; Juillard, Michel ; Kamenik, Ondra ; Korshunov, Dmitry ; Laxton, Douglas ; Laxton, Jared Series: Working Paper No. 08/280 Date: December 1, 2008 Subject(s): Economic forecasting \| United States \| Euro Area \| Japan \| Oil prices \| Monetary policy \| External shocks \| Forecasting models Author's keyword(s): Macroeconomic Modeling; Forecasting; Bayesian Estimation; Monetary Policy

Title: A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model Author/Editor: Juillard, Michel ; Laxton, Douglas ; Carabenciov, Ioan ; Ermolaev, Igor ; Freedman, Charles ; Korshunov, Dmitry ; Laxton, Jared ; Kamenik, Ondra Series: Working Paper No. 08/279 Date: December 1, 2008 Subject(s): Working Paper Author's keyword(s): Macroeconomic Modeling; Forecasting; Bayesian Estimation; Monetary Policy

Title: A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy Author/Editor: Carabenciov, Ioan ; Ermolaev, Igor ; Freedman, Charles ; Juillard, Michel ; Kamenik, Ondra ; Korshunov, Dmitry ; Laxton, Douglas Series: Working Paper No. 08/278 Date: December 1, 2008 Subject(s): Economic forecasting \| United States \| Monetary policy \| Forecasting models Author's keyword(s): Macroeconomic Modeling; Bayesian Estimation; Monetary Policy

Title: What Attracts Tourists to Paradise? Author/Editor: Tsounta, Evridiki Series: Working Paper No. 08/277 Date: December 1, 2008 Subject(s): Tourism \| Caribbean \| Eastern Caribbean Currency Union \| Demand \| Supply \| External shocks \| Prices \| Foreign direct investment \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Tourism demand \| ECCU \| Dynamic least squares

Title: From Crisis to IMF-Supported Program: Does democracy impede the speed required by financial markets? Author/Editor: Mody, Ashoka ; Saravia, Diego Series: Working Paper No. 08/276 Date: December 1, 2008 Subject(s): Financial crisis \| Fund arrangements \| Political economy \| Capital markets \| Economic integration \| Relationships with Fund \| Globalization Author's keyword(s): IMF \| Financial Crises \| Democracy

Title: Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap in Slovakia Author/Editor: Konuki, Tetsuya Series: Working Paper No. 08/275 Date: December 1, 2008 Subject(s): Production \| Slovak Republic \| Economic growth \| Economic indicators \| Economic forecasting \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Slovakia; potential output; Kalman filter

Title: What Happens During Recessions, Crunches, and Busts? Author/Editor: Claessens, Stijn ; Kose, M. Ayhan ; Terrones, Marco Series: Working Paper No. 08/274 Date: December 1, 2008 Subject(s): Economic recession \| Business cycles \| Financial crisis \| Credit \| Housing prices \| Stock prices \| Oil prices \| Databases \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Business cycles \| recessions \| credit crunches \| house prices \| equity prices \| busts

Title: Hong Kong SAR Economic Integration with the Pearl River Delta Author/Editor: Chen, Hongyi ; Unteroberdoerster, Olaf Series: Working Paper No. 08/273 Date: December 1, 2008 Subject(s): Economic integration \| Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China \| China, People's Republic of \| Financial sector \| Trade integration \| Investment policy \| Infrastructure \| Services sector \| Human capital Author's keyword(s): Economic integration \| trade \| investment \| producer services \| financial integration \| global supply-chain management \| cross-border pollution

Title: The Macroeconomic Impact of Healthcare Financing Alternatives: Reform Options forHong Kong SAR Author/Editor: Botman, Dennis P. J. ; Porter, Nathaniel John Series: Working Paper No. 08/272 Date: December 1, 2008 Subject(s): Health care \| Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China \| Public finance \| Aging \| Fiscal reforms \| Tax incentives Author's keyword(s): Healthcare financing \| aging population \| aging-related fiscal pressures

Title: Analyzing Determinants of Inflation When There Are Data Limitation:The Case of Sierra Leone Author/Editor: Gottschalk, Jan ; Kalonji, Kadima D. ; Miyajima, Ken Series: Working Paper No. 08/271 Date: December 1, 2008 Subject(s): Inflation \| Sierra Leone \| Data analysis \| Economic forecasting \| Oil prices \| Money supply \| Exchange rate depreciation \| Forecasting models Author's keyword(s): Historical decomposition \| impulse response \| inflation \| variance decomposition \| vector autoregression (VAR)

Title: Inflation Determinants in Paraguay: Cost Push versus Demand Pull Factors Author/Editor: Monfort, Brieuc ; Peña, Santiago Series: Working Paper No. 08/270 Date: December 1, 2008 Subject(s): Paraguay \| Inflation \| Wage indexation \| Price increases \| Demand for money \| Spillovers Author's keyword(s): Core inflation; money demand; mark-up; pass-through.

Title: One-Size-Fits-One: Tailor-Made Fiscal Responses to Capital Flows Author/Editor: Zakharova, Daria Series: Working Paper No. 08/269 Date: December 1, 2008 Subject(s): Fiscal policy \| Capital flows \| Capital inflows \| Capital account \| Capital account \| Current account deficits Author's keyword(s): Capital inflows \| fiscal policy \| micro-fiscal measures

Title: Efficiency and Performance of Bulgarian Private Pensions Author/Editor: Impavido, Gregorio Series: Working Paper No. 08/268 Date: December 1, 2008 Subject(s): Bulgaria \| Pensions \| Asset management \| Investment \| Pension regulations Author's keyword(s): Private pensions \| second pillar.

Title: Dynamic Factor Price Equalization & International Income Convergence Author/Editor: Francois, Joseph ; Shiells, Clinton R. Series: Working Paper No. 08/267 Date: December 1, 2008 Subject(s): Prices \| International trade \| Demand \| Economic growth \| External shocks \| Income \| Spillovers \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Neoclassical Models of Trade \| Economic Growth of Open Economies \| Cross-Country Output Convergence

Title: A New Database of Financial Reforms Author/Editor: Abiad, Abdul ; Detragiache, Enrica ; Tressel, Thierry Series: Working Paper No. 08/266 Date: December 1, 2008 Subject(s): Economic reforms \| Economic databases \| Financial sector \| Economic policy Author's keyword(s): Financial liberalization \| financial reforms

Title: Do Financial Sector Reforms Lead to Financial Development? Evidence from a New Dataset Author/Editor: Tressel, Thierry ; Detragiache, Enrica Series: Working Paper No. 08/265 Date: December 1, 2008 Subject(s): Economic reforms \| Financial sector \| Development \| Banking systems \| Political economy \| Credit policy \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Financial development \| financial liberalization \| property rights

Title: Macroeconomics of Migration in New Member States Author/Editor: Bems, Rudolfs ; Schellekens, Philip Series: Working Paper No. 08/264 Date: December 1, 2008 Subject(s): Migration \| Labor mobility \| European Economic and Monetary Union \| Wages \| Capital flows \| Economic growth \| Income Author's keyword(s): international factor movements \| convergence \| general equilibrium

Title: What is Really Good for Long-Term Growth? Lessons from a Binary ClassificationTree (BCT) Approach Author/Editor: Duttagupta, Rupa ; Mlachila, Montfort Series: Working Paper No. 08/263 Date: December 1, 2008 Subject(s): Economic growth \| Trade liberalization \| Trade policy \| Human capital \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): economic growth \| Binary Classification Tree

November 2008

Title: The Tasks Ahead Series: Working Paper No. 08/262 Date: November 1, 2008 Subject(s): Group of Twenty \| Economic summits \| Economic policy \| Demand management \| Liquidity management \| Low-income developing countries \| Risk management \| Crisis prevention

Title: Strategic Considerations for First-Time Sovereign Bond Issuers Author/Editor: Das, Udaibir S. ; Papaioannou, Michael G. ; Polan, Magdalena Series: Working Paper No. 08/261 Date: November 1, 2008 Subject(s): International bond markets \| Sovereign debt \| Debt relief \| Debt sustainability \| Low-income developing countries \| Emerging markets \| International capital markets Author's keyword(s): Sovereign debt \| external debt \| international bonds \| market access \| emerging markets \| low-income countries

Title: Fundamentals at Odds? The U.S. Current Account Deficit and The Dollar Author/Editor: Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria Series: Working Paper No. 08/260 Date: November 1, 2008 Subject(s): Current account deficits \| United States \| Real effective exchange rates \| Terms of trade \| Current account balances \| Adjustment process Author's keyword(s): Current account; U.S. dollar; real effective exchange rate

Title: Is it (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets Author/Editor: Baldacci, Emanuele ; Gupta, Sanjeev ; Mati, Amine Series: Working Paper No. 08/259 Date: November 1, 2008 Subject(s): Emerging markets \| Sovereign debt \| Credit risk \| Fiscal consolidation \| Political economy \| Fiscal policy \| Public investment Author's keyword(s): Sovereign spreads \| political risk \| emerging markets \| fiscal consolidation

Title: Counterparty Risk in the Over-The-Counter Derivatives Market Author/Editor: Segoviano Basurto, Miguel A. ; Singh, Manmohan Series: Working Paper No. 08/258 Date: November 1, 2008 Subject(s): Capital markets \| Stock markets \| Securities markets \| Risk management \| Banking systems \| Bank regulations Author's keyword(s): Counterparty risk \| banking system stability \| OTC derivatives \| regulation

Title: Tax Concessions and Foreign Direct Investmentin the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union Author/Editor: Chai, Jingqing ; Goyal, Rishi Series: Working Paper No. 08/257 Date: November 1, 2008 Subject(s): Foreign direct investment \| Tax policy \| Eastern Caribbean Currency Union \| Investment incentives \| Corporate taxes \| Developing countries \| Import tariffs Author's keyword(s): Concessions \| Incentives \| Tax Competition \| Foreign Direct Investment \| ECCU

Title: Creating Sustainable Fiscal Space for Infrastructure: The Case of Tanzania Author/Editor: Ter-Minassian, Teresa ; Hughes, Richard ; Hajdenberg, Alejandro Series: Working Paper No. 08/256 Date: November 1, 2008 Subject(s): Infrastructure \| Tanzania \| Fiscal policy \| Private investment \| Public investment programs \| Tax policy \| Revenue mobilization \| Credit policy \| Bonds Author's keyword(s): Tanzania \| fiscal space \| infrastructure \| sovereign bonds

Title: StressTesting Household Debt in Korea Author/Editor: Karasulu, Meral Series: Working Paper No. 08/255 Date: November 1, 2008 Subject(s): Korea, Republic of \| Public debt \| Interest rates \| Income distribution \| Real estate prices \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Household debt and stress testing

Title: Sovereign Wealth Funds: Current Institutional and Operational Practices Author/Editor: Hammer, Cornelia ; Kunzel, Peter ; Petrova, Iva Series: Working Paper No. 08/254 Date: November 1, 2008 Subject(s): Sovereign wealth funds \| Governance \| Transparency \| Investment \| Risk management Author's keyword(s): Sovereign Wealth Funds \| Governance and Accountability \| Investment and Risk Management

Title: Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil-Exporting Countries Author/Editor: Husain, Aasim M. ; Tazhibayeva, Kamilya ; Ter-Martirosyan, Anna Series: Working Paper No. 08/253 Date: November 1, 2008 Subject(s): Oil exporting countries \| Fiscal policy \| Business cycles \| Oil prices \| Nonoil sector \| Economic growth \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Oil prices \| fiscal policy \| economic cycles

October 2008

Title: Writing Clearly: ECB’s Monetary Policy Communication Author/Editor: Bulir, Ales ; Cihák, Martin ; Smídková, Katerina Series: Working Paper No. 08/252 Date: October 1, 2008 Subject(s): European Central Bank \| Monetary policy \| Central bank policy \| External shocks Author's keyword(s): Monetary policy \| Communication \| European Central Bank

Title: Perspectives on High Real Interest Rates in Turkey Author/Editor: Kannan, Prakash Series: Working Paper No. 08/251 Date: October 1, 2008 Subject(s): Interest rates \| Turkey \| Risk premium \| Disinflation \| Fiscal policy \| Foreign exchange \| Capital \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Turkey; Real Interest Rates; Marginal Product of Capital; Risk Premium

Title: The Use of Blanket Guarantees in Banking Crises Author/Editor: Laeven, Luc ; Valencia, Fabian Series: Working Paper No. 08/250 Date: October 1, 2008 Subject(s): Banking crisis \| Loan guarantees \| Risk management \| Liquidity \| Bank credit \| Financial systems \| Moral hazard Author's keyword(s): banking crisis \| crisis resolution \| blanket guarantee \| moral hazard

Title: Trade Effects of Currency Unions: Do Economic Dissimilarities Matter? Author/Editor: Albertin, Giorgia Series: Working Paper No. 08/249 Date: October 1, 2008 Subject(s): Monetary unions \| Trade integration \| International trade \| Trade models Author's keyword(s): Currency union \| enlargement \| economic dissimilarities \| intra-industry trade

Title: Banks' Precautionary Capital and Credit Crunches Author/Editor: Valencia, Fabian Series: Working Paper No. 08/248 Date: October 1, 2008 Subject(s): Banking crisis \| Bank credit \| External shocks \| Liquidity management \| Financial risk \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Banking \| financial frictions \| credit crunch \| dynamic programming

Title: Interest Rate Elasticity of Residential Housing Prices Author/Editor: Iossifov, Plamen ; Cihák, Martin ; Shanghavi, Amar Series: Working Paper No. 08/247 Date: October 1, 2008 Subject(s): Housing prices \| Real estate prices \| Interest rate policy \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Housing prices

Title: Globalization Drives Strategic Product Switching Author/Editor: Moreno Badia, Marialuz ; Slootmaekers, Veerle ; Beveren, Ilke Van Series: Working Paper No. 08/246 Date: October 1, 2008 Subject(s): Globalization \| Estonia \| Corporate sector \| Commodity markets \| Trade integration \| Competition \| International trade \| Trade liberalization \| Exports \| Imports Author's keyword(s): product switching \| exit \| international trade \| comparative advantage

Title: Contingent Liabilities: Issues and Practice Author/Editor: Cebotari, Aliona Series: Working Paper No. 08/245 Date: October 1, 2008 Subject(s): Debt problems \| Public finance \| Government expenditures \| Public sector \| Private sector \| Fiscal transparency \| Risk management Author's keyword(s): contingent liabilities \| government guarantees \| fiscal risks \| disclosure \| risk management

Title: Do Interest Groups Affect U.S. Immigration Policy? Author/Editor: Facchini, Giovanni ; Mayda, Anna Maria ; Mishra, Prachi Series: Working Paper No. 08/244 Date: October 1, 2008 Subject(s): Immigration \| United States \| Industrial sector \| Political economy \| Migration \| Labor unions Author's keyword(s): Immigration \| Immigration Policy \| Interest Groups \| Political Economy.

Title: Wage-Price Setting in New EU Member States Author/Editor: Goretti, Manuela Series: Working Paper No. 08/243 Date: October 1, 2008 Subject(s): Wage policy \| Pricing policy \| European Union \| Europe \| Public sector wages \| Labor markets \| Labor productivity \| External shocks \| Inflation Author's keyword(s): Wage \| Price \| Labor Market \| New EU Member States

Title: Does Openness to International Financial Flows Raise Productivity Growth? Author/Editor: Kose, M. Ayhan ; Prasad, Eswar ; Terrones, Marco Series: Working Paper No. 08/242 Date: October 1, 2008 Subject(s): Capital flows \| Productivity \| Production growth \| Capital account \| Foreign direct investment \| Development \| Debt \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Financial openness; capital account liberalization; capital flows; external assets and liabilities; foreign direct investment; portfolio equity; debt; total factor productivity

Title: Household Income As A Determinant of Child Labor and School Enrollment in Brazil: Evidence From A Social Security Reform Author/Editor: Carvalho Filho, Irineu E. Series: Working Paper No. 08/241 Date: October 1, 2008 Subject(s): Income distribution \| Brazil \| Labor \| Women \| Education \| Social security \| Human capital Author's keyword(s): social security reform; child labor; family; school enrollment; old-age benefits \| Brazil

Title: International Competitiveness of the Mediterranean Quartet:A Heterogeneous-Product Approach Author/Editor: Bennett, Herman Z. ; Zarnic, Ziga Series: Working Paper No. 08/240 Date: October 1, 2008 Subject(s): Competition \| Greece \| Italy \| Portugal \| Spain \| Real effective exchange rates \| Exports \| Euro Area \| Services sector Author's keyword(s): International competitiveness \| real effective exchange rate \| product heterogeneity \| industry level \| structure of competitors \| services exports \| euro area.

Title: Latin America: Highlights from the Implementation of the System of National Accounts 1993 (1993 SNA) Author/Editor: Ramos, Roberto Luis Olinto ; Pastor, Gonzalo C. ; Rivas, Lisbeth Series: Working Paper No. 08/239 Date: October 1, 2008 Subject(s): Latin America \| South America \| Caribbean \| National accounts \| Data collection \| Gross domestic product \| Capital formation \| Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes \| Consumption Author's keyword(s): 1993 SNA implementation \| Data Module of the ROSCs \| GDP estimation biases

Title: The Costs of Sovereign Default Author/Editor: Borensztein, Eduardo ; Panizza, Ugo Series: Working Paper No. 08/238 Date: October 1, 2008 Subject(s): Sovereign debt \| Public debt \| External debt \| Financial risk \| Financial crisis \| Political economy \| International trade \| Bankruptcy Author's keyword(s): Sovereign Debt \| Default \| Country Risk \| Public Debt \| External Debt

Title: The Spending and Absorption of Aid in PRGF Supported Programs Author/Editor: Berndt, Markus ; Dudine, Paolo ; Martijn, Jan Kees ; Shonchoy, Abu Series: Working Paper No. 08/237 Date: October 1, 2008 Subject(s): Absorptive capacity \| Development assistance \| Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility \| Financial stability \| Inflation \| Developing countries \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Aid \| spending and absorption \| PRGF

Title: A Theory of International Crisis Lending and IMF Conditionality Author/Editor: Jeanne, Olivier ; Zettelmeyer, Jeromin ; Ostry, Jonathan David Series: Working Paper No. 08/236 Date: October 1, 2008 Subject(s): Financial crisis \| Crisis prevention \| Fund role \| Conditionality \| Moral hazard \| Spillovers Author's keyword(s): International Monetary Fund; crisis prevention; ex ante conditionality

Title: Growing Apart? A Tale of Two Republics: Estonia and Georgia Author/Editor: Hochreiter, Eduard ; Gylfason, Þorvaldur Series: Working Paper No. 08/235 Date: October 1, 2008 Subject(s): Economic growth \| Estonia \| Georgia \| Governance \| Transition economies \| Education \| Economic reforms \| Exports \| Inflation \| Labor markets Author's keyword(s): Economic growth \| governance \| transition economies

Title: Inflation Targeting and Communication: It Pays Off to Read Inflation Reports Author/Editor: Bulir, Ales ; Smídková, Katerina ; Kotlán, Viktor ; Navrátil, David Series: Working Paper No. 08/234 Date: October 1, 2008 Subject(s): Inflation targeting \| Central banks \| Economic forecasting \| Monetary policy \| Transparency \| Emerging markets \| Chile \| Czech Republic \| Hungary \| Poland \| Thailand \| Sweden Author's keyword(s): Inflation targeting \| forecasting \| monetary policy \| transparency \| emerging markets

September 2008

Title: Rapid Current Account Adjustments: Are Microstates Different? Author/Editor: Imam, Patrick A. Series: Working Paper No. 08/233 Date: September 1, 2008 Subject(s): Current account \| Current account deficits \| Investment \| Capital markets \| Exports \| Imports \| External shocks \| Monetary policy \| Development \| Gross domestic product \| Real effective exchange rates \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Terms of trade shocks \| microstates \| current account

Title: Bank Losses, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability-Evidence on the Interplay from Panel Data Author/Editor: Nier, Erlend ; Zicchino, Lea Series: Working Paper No. 08/232 Date: September 1, 2008 Subject(s): Bank credit \| Monetary policy \| Financial stability \| Liquidity management \| Banking crisis \| Capital flows Author's keyword(s): Loan supply \| Financial stability \| Monetary policy

Title: Beyond Macroeconomic Stability: The Quest for Industrialization in Uganda Author/Editor: Selassie, Abebe Aemro Series: Working Paper No. 08/231 Date: September 1, 2008 Subject(s): Financial stability \| Uganda \| Industrialization \| Economic recovery \| Economic reforms \| Economic growth \| Economic policy Author's keyword(s): Uganda \| Growth \| Industrialization \| Economic Policies

Title: Garbage In, Gospel Out? Controlling for the Underreporting of Remittances Author/Editor: Shonkwiler, J. Scott ; Grigorian, David A. ; Melkonyan, Tigran A. Series: Working Paper No. 08/230 Date: September 1, 2008 Subject(s): Workers remittances \| Armenia \| Data collection \| Financial incentives \| Labor supply \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): censored data \| measurement error \| labor supply \| Armenia

Title: Banks and Labor as Stakeholders: Impact on Economic Performance Author/Editor: Claessens, Stijn ; Ueda, Kenichi Series: Working Paper No. 08/229 Date: September 1, 2008 Subject(s): Banks \| Labor \| Corporate governance \| Employment policy \| Industrial investment \| Industrial production \| Economic models \| Working Paper Author's keyword(s): corporate governance \| stakeholders \| shareholders' maximization \| financial liberalization \| employment protection

Title: Determinants of Government Efficiency Author/Editor: Hauner, David ; Kyobe, Annette Series: Working Paper No. 08/228 Date: September 1, 2008 Subject(s): Government expenditures \| Government accounting \| Public sector \| Economic indicators \| Fiscal policy \| Gross domestic product \| Public finance \| Economic growth \| Economic models \| Working Paper Author's keyword(s): Public sector performance; expenditure efficiency; fiscal policy; institutions.

Title: Tax Reforms, "Free Lunches", and "Cheap Lunches" in Open Economies Author/Editor: Ganelli, Giovanni ; Tervala, Juha Series: Working Paper No. 08/227 Date: September 1, 2008 Subject(s): Tax reforms \| Income taxes \| Consumption taxes \| Tax rates \| Budgetary policy \| Economic models \| Working Paper Author's keyword(s): Tax Cuts; Dynamic Laffer Effects; Self-financing.

Title: An Anatomy of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates and Micro Data Author/Editor: Mendoza, Enrique G. ; Terrones, Marco Series: Working Paper No. 08/226 Date: September 1, 2008 Subject(s): Credit expansion \| Business cycles \| Emerging markets \| Asset prices \| Current account deficits \| Productivity Author's keyword(s): credit booms; business cycles; emerging markets

Title: Current and Proposed Non-Oil Tax System in Azerbaijan Author/Editor: Zermeño, Mayra Series: Working Paper No. 08/225 Date: September 1, 2008 Subject(s): Tax systems \| Azerbaijan \| Nonoil sector \| Tax policy \| Tax revenues \| Customs administration \| Tax reforms \| Value added tax \| Working Paper Author's keyword(s): Azerbaijan \| non-oil taxation \| non-oil tax policy \| non-oil tax administration

Title: Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database Author/Editor: Laeven, Luc ; Valencia, Fabian Series: Working Paper No. 08/224 Date: September 1, 2008 Subject(s): Financial crisis \| Banking sector \| Banking crisis \| Sovereign debt \| Databases \| Currencies \| Spillovers \| Economic recovery \| Fiscal sustainability Author's keyword(s): banking crisis \| financial crisis \| crisis resolution \| database

Title: Macroeconomic Effects of EU Transfers in New Member States Author/Editor: Allard, Céline ; Choueiri, Nada ; Schadler, Susan ; van Elkan, Rachel Series: Working Paper No. 08/223 Date: September 1, 2008 Subject(s): European Economic and Monetary Union \| Capital flows \| Monetary policy \| Investment policy \| Capital inflows \| Economic integration \| Exchange rate regimes \| Working Paper Author's keyword(s): Convergence \| cross-country transfers \| policy-mix

Title: Central Bank Collateral Frameworks: Principles and Policies Author/Editor: Chailloux, Alexandre ; Gray, Simon ; McCaughrin, Rebecca Series: Working Paper No. 08/222 Date: September 1, 2008 Subject(s): Central bank policy \| Financial crisis \| Risk management \| Emerging markets \| Price incentives \| Foreign exchange \| Liquidity \| Capital flows \| Working Paper Author's keyword(s): Adverse selection \| central banking \| collateral \| financial market crises \| risk mitigation

Title: Commodities and the Market Price of Risk Author/Editor: Roache, Shaun K. Series: Working Paper No. 08/221 Date: September 1, 2008 Subject(s): Commodity prices \| Risk management \| Interest rates \| Asset prices \| Economic models \| Investment \| Working Paper Author's keyword(s): Asset pricing \| futures pricing

Title: An Analysis of So-Called Export-led Growth Author/Editor: Yang, Jie Series: Working Paper No. 08/220 Date: September 1, 2008 Subject(s): Economic growth \| Exports \| Real effective exchange rates \| Labor productivity \| Productivity \| Economic models \| Working Paper Author's keyword(s): Export-led growth \| real exchange rate \| productivity improvement

Title: Are Weak Banks Leading Credit Booms? Evidence from Emerging Europe Author/Editor: Tamirisa, Natalia T. ; Igan, Deniz Series: Working Paper No. 08/219 Date: September 1, 2008 Subject(s): Banking sector \| Bank soundness \| Credit expansion \| Europe \| Emerging markets \| Bank credit \| Risk management \| Working Paper Author's keyword(s): Credit \| boom \| bank \| soundness \| Europe \| Baltics \| transition

Title: The Impact of Public Capital, Human Capital, and Knowledge on Aggregate Output Author/Editor: Abdih, Yasser ; Joutz, Frederick L. Series: Working Paper No. 08/218 Date: September 1, 2008 Subject(s): Human capital \| Public finance \| Private sector \| Capital \| Labor productivity \| Economic growth \| Economic models \| Economic policy \| Working Paper Author's keyword(s): Public capital \| human capital \| knowledge \| economic growth \| cointegration.

Title: Public Financial Management and Fiscal Outcomes in sub-Saharan African Heavily-Indebted Poor Countries Author/Editor: Prakash, Tej ; Cabezon, Ezequiel Series: Working Paper No. 08/217 Date: September 1, 2008 Subject(s): Financial management \| Sub-Saharan Africa \| Heavily indebted poor countries \| Fiscal sector \| Public sector \| Economic indicators \| External debt \| Economic models \| Fiscal policy \| Working Paper Author's keyword(s): Fiscal Institutions \| Public Financial Management \| sub-Saharan Africa \| HIPC Countries.

Title: Trade Elasticities in the Middle East and Central Asia: What is the Role of Oil? Author/Editor: Hakura, Dalia ; Billmeier, Andreas Series: Working Paper No. 08/216 Date: September 1, 2008 Subject(s): Middle East and Central Asia \| Trade policy \| Imports \| Exports \| Oil exporting countries \| Exchange rate appreciation \| Current account surpluses \| Economic integration \| Real effective exchange rates \| Economic models \| Working Paper Author's keyword(s): trade elasticities \| current account adjustment \| Middle East and Central Asia \| global imbalances \| oil exporting countries

Title: Banking Structure and Credit Growth in Central and Eastern European Countries Author/Editor: Aydin, Burcu Series: Working Paper No. 08/215 Date: September 1, 2008 Subject(s): Banking systems \| Central and Eastern Europe \| Credit expansion \| International banks \| Economic growth \| Interest rates \| Real effective exchange rates \| Working Paper Author's keyword(s): Credit growth \| CEE \| Foreign Banks \| Parent Banks \| Panel Data

Title: The Eastern Caribbean Central Bank: Challenges to an Effective Lender of Last Resort Author/Editor: Dehesa, Mario ; Druck, Pablo Series: Working Paper No. 08/214 Date: September 1, 2008 Subject(s): Eastern Caribbean Central Bank \| Caribbean \| Working Paper \| Loans \| Bank credit \| Monetary unions \| Exchange rate stability \| Liquidity management \| Central bank role

Title: New Keynesian Exchange Rate Pass-Through Author/Editor: Choi, Woon Gyu ; Cook, David Series: Working Paper No. 08/213 Date: September 1, 2008 Subject(s): Imports \| Producer prices \| Exchange rates \| Exports \| Trade models \| Economic models \| Working Paper Author's keyword(s): pass-through effects; import prices; local currency pricing; new Keynesian Phillips curve; forward-looking expectation

Title: Mauritius: A Competitiveness Assessment Author/Editor: Imam, Patrick A. ; Minoiu, Camelia Series: Working Paper No. 08/212 Date: September 1, 2008 Subject(s): Mauritius \| Competition \| Real effective exchange rates \| Fiscal sustainability \| Regional shocks \| Commodity prices \| Exports \| Exchange rate regimes \| Economic models \| Working Paper Author's keyword(s): Mauritius \| equilibrium real exchange rate \| structural competitveness

Title: House Price Developments in Europe: A Comparison Author/Editor: Hilbers, Paul Louis Ceriel ; Hoffmaister, Alexander W. ; Banerji, Angana ; Shi, Haiyan Series: Working Paper No. 08/211 Date: September 1, 2008 Subject(s): Housing prices \| Europe \| Economic indicators \| Taxation \| Interest rates \| Monetary policy \| Fiscal policy \| Population \| Demand \| Supply \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Housing markets \| Europe

Title: Central Bank Response to the 2007-08 Financial Market Turbulence: Experiences and Lessons Drawn Author/Editor: Chailloux, Alexandre ; Gray, Simon ; Klueh, Ulrich H. ; Shimizu, Seiichi ; Stella, Peter Series: Working Paper No. 08/210 Date: September 1, 2008 Subject(s): Central banks \| Financial crisis \| International capital markets \| Liquidity management \| International cooperation \| Monetary policy \| Financial risk \| Working Paper Author's keyword(s): Central Bank \| monetary operations

Title: Original Sin and Procylical Fiscal Policy: Two Sides of the Same Coin? Author/Editor: Adler, Gustavo Series: Working Paper No. 08/209 Date: September 1, 2008 Subject(s): Sovereign debt \| Fiscal policy \| Inflation \| Price stabilization \| Public debt \| Political economy \| Emerging markets \| Developing countries \| Economic models \| Working Paper Author's keyword(s): Fiscal policy cyclicality \| sovereign debt \| original sin

Title: Global Volatility and Forex Returns in East Asia Author/Editor: Kalra, Sanjay Series: Working Paper No. 08/208 Date: September 1, 2008 Subject(s): Foreign exchange \| East Asia \| Exchange rates \| Financial stability \| Economic integration \| Economic models \| Financial crisis \| Working Paper Author's keyword(s): East Asia \| Forex returns \| GARCH models \| volatility

Title: Investment Incentives and Effective Tax Rates in the Philippines:A Comparison With Neighboring Countries Author/Editor: Botman, Dennis P. J. ; Klemm, Alexander ; Baqir, Reza Series: Working Paper No. 08/207 Date: September 1, 2008 Subject(s): Philippines \| Investment incentives \| Tax rates \| Corporate taxes \| Tax reforms \| Revenue sources \| Southeast Asia \| Working Paper Author's keyword(s): Investment incentives \| Effective tax rates \| South-East Asia \| Tax holidays

Title: Stress Testing at the IMF Author/Editor: Moretti, Marina ; Stolz, Stéphanie ; Swinburne, Mark Series: Working Paper No. 08/206 Date: September 1, 2008 Subject(s): Financial Sector Assessment Program \| Financial systems \| Financial stability \| Credit risk \| Liquidity \| Technical assistance \| Working Paper Author's keyword(s): Stress testing \| financial stability \| credit risk \| market risk \| liquidity risk

August 2008

Title: Impact of Macroeconomic, Political, and Institutional Factors on the Structure of Government Debt in Emerging Market Countries Author/Editor: Guscina, Anastasia Series: Working Paper No. 08/205 Date: August 1, 2008 Subject(s): Emerging markets \| Domestic debt \| Financial crisis \| Political economy \| Financial institutions \| Financial stability \| Interest rates \| Inflation \| Working Paper Author's keyword(s): Government debt \| emerging markets \| original sin \| debt structure

Title: Foreign Aid and Real Exchange Rate Adjustments in a Financially Constrained Dependent Economy Author/Editor: Cerra, Valerie ; Tekin, Serpil ; Turnovsky, Stephen J. Series: Working Paper No. 08/204 Date: August 1, 2008 Subject(s): Working Paper \| Aid flows \| Real effective exchange rates \| Imports \| Fiscal policy \| External debt \| Capital accumulation \| Trade \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Foreign aid; real exchange rate; fiscal policy; debt; capital accumulation; welfare analysis

Title: Zero Corporate Income Tax in Moldova: Tax Competition and Its Implications for Eastern Europe Author/Editor: Piatkowski, Marcin ; Jarmuzek, Mariusz Series: Working Paper No. 08/203 Date: August 1, 2008 Subject(s): Moldova \| Corporate taxes \| Tax policy \| Competition \| Economic integration \| Public investment \| Tax revenues \| Foreign direct investment \| Social policy \| Working Paper Author's keyword(s): Tax competition; Corporate Taxes

Title: What Drives Household Borrowing and Credit Constraints? Evidence from Bosnia & Herzegovina Author/Editor: Chen Chen, Ke ; Chivakul, Mali Series: Working Paper No. 08/202 Date: August 1, 2008 Subject(s): Bosnia and Herzegovina \| Credit expansion \| Credit restraint \| Public debt \| Education \| Unemployment \| Economic conditions \| Interest rates \| Inflation \| Credit policy \| Economic models \| Working Paper Author's keyword(s): household debt \| credit constraints \| Bosnia & Herzegovina

Title: Macroeconomic Effects of Pension Reform in Russia Author/Editor: Hauner, David Series: Working Paper No. 08/201 Date: August 1, 2008 Subject(s): Russian Federation \| Pensions \| Economic reforms \| Private savings \| Tax policy \| Public investment \| Consumption taxes \| Aging \| Population \| Value added tax \| Working Paper Author's keyword(s): Russia \| pension reform \| DSGE models.

Title: Transmission of Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from the 2007 Subprime Crisis Author/Editor: Frank, Nathaniel ; González-Hermosillo, Brenda ; Hesse, Heiko Series: Working Paper No. 08/200 Date: August 1, 2008 Subject(s): Liquidity management \| External shocks \| Financial crisis \| Spillovers \| Credit \| Banks \| Financial institutions \| Economic models \| Working Paper Author's keyword(s): Funding liquidity \| market liquidity \| subprime crisis \| GARCH

Title: Efficiency Costs of Myanmar’s Multiple Exchange Rate Regime Author/Editor: Hori, Masahiro ; Ching Wong, Yu Series: Working Paper No. 08/199 Date: August 1, 2008 Subject(s): Exchange rate regimes \| Myanmar \| Multiple exchange rates \| Exchange markets \| Economic models \| Trade models \| National accounts \| Gross domestic product \| Exports \| Imports \| Working Paper Author's keyword(s): Multiple Exchange Rate \| Exchange Rate Unification \| Efficiency Analysis

Title: Equilibrium Non-Oil Current Account Assessments for Oil Producing Countries Author/Editor: Thomas, Alun H. ; Kim, Jun Il ; Aslam, Aqib Series: Working Paper No. 08/198 Date: August 1, 2008 Subject(s): Nonoil sector \| Oil producing countries \| Current account balances \| Oil prices \| Exchange rate assessments \| Economic models \| Working Paper Author's keyword(s): exchange rate assessment \| oil-exporting countries \| consumption smoothing

Title: The Myth of Post-Reform Income Stagnation: Evidence from Brazil and Mexico Author/Editor: Carvalho Filho, Irineu E. ; Chamon, Marcos Series: Working Paper No. 08/197 Date: August 1, 2008 Subject(s): Brazil \| Mexico \| Data analysis \| Economic reforms \| Income \| Private consumption \| Consumer prices \| Deflation \| Economic models \| Economic policy \| Working Paper Author's keyword(s): Household consumption; Measurement error; CPI Bias; Economic reform; Trade liberalization; Inflation stabilization.

Title: The Impact of Oil-Related Income on the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Syria Author/Editor: Hasan, Maher ; Dridi, Jemma Series: Working Paper No. 08/196 Date: August 1, 2008 Subject(s): Syrian Arab Republic \| Real effective exchange rates \| Oil production \| Oil revenues \| Productivity \| Government expenditures \| Imports \| Current account balances \| External shocks \| Exchange systems \| Working Paper Author's keyword(s): Equilibrium real exchange rate \| oil-related income \| trade openness \| government expenditures \| Vector Error Correction Model.

Title: Pension Privatization and Country Risk Author/Editor: Cuevas, Alfredo ; Gonzalez, Maria ; Lombardo, Davide ; López-Marmolejo, Arnoldo Series: Working Paper No. 08/195 Date: August 1, 2008 Subject(s): Pensions \| Privatization \| Credit risk \| Public debt \| Economic models \| Social security Author's keyword(s): Credit Risk \| Credit Ratings \| Pension Reform \| Public Debt \| Transition Costs

Title: The option-iPoD. The Probability of Default Implied by Option Prices based on Entropy Author/Editor: Capuano, Christian Series: Working Paper No. 08/194 Date: August 1, 2008 Subject(s): Credit \| Bond markets \| Risk management \| Financial risk \| Financial institutions Author's keyword(s): endogenous default barrier \| cross-entropy \| option contracts \| volatility smile.

Title: Understanding the Inflationary Process in the GCC Region: The Case of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait Author/Editor: Hasan, Maher ; Alogeel, Hesham Series: Working Paper No. 08/193 Date: August 1, 2008 Subject(s): Inflation \| Saudi Arabia \| Kuwait \| Money supply \| Exchange rate stability \| Bilateral trade \| Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf Author's keyword(s): Inflation \| trading partners’ inflation \| pass-through effect \| demand shocks \| excess money supply \| error correction model (ECM).

Title: Are Emerging Asia’s Reserves Really Too High? Author/Editor: Ruiz-Arranz, Marta ; Zavadjil, Milan Series: Working Paper No. 08/192 Date: August 1, 2008 Subject(s): Asia and Pacific \| Reserves \| Liquidity \| Capital inflows \| Production \| Consumption \| External debt \| Emerging markets Author's keyword(s): Foreign exchange reserves \| capital flows

Title: Monetary Transmission in an Emerging Targeter: The Case of Brazil Author/Editor: Catão, Luis ; Laxton, Douglas ; Pagan, A. R. Series: Working Paper No. 08/191 Date: August 1, 2008 Subject(s): Brazil \| Monetary policy \| Inflation targeting \| Emerging markets \| Bank credit \| Interest rates \| Developed countries \| Economic models \| Disinflation Author's keyword(s): Monetary Policy \| Inflation \| Credit Channel \| SVAR \| Brazil

Title: Quality of Financial Sector Regulation and Supervision Around the World Author/Editor: Cihák, Martin ; Tieman, Alexander F. Series: Working Paper No. 08/190 Date: August 1, 2008 Subject(s): Financial sector \| Bank regulations \| Bank supervision \| Standards and codes \| Financial stability \| Financial system stability assessment \| Basel Core Principles \| Financial Sector Assessment Program Author's keyword(s): Regulation \| supervision \| financial stability

July 2008

Title: Investigating Inflation Dynamics in Sudan Author/Editor: Moriyama, Kenji Series: Working Paper No. 08/189 Date: July 1, 2008 Subject(s): Sudan \| Inflation \| Money supply \| Real effective exchange rates \| Monetary policy \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): inflation \| money supply \| nominal exchange rate \| and monetary policy.

Title: Innovation in Banking and Excessive Loan Growth Author/Editor: Hardy, Daniel C. L. ; Tieman, Alexander F. Series: Working Paper No. 08/188 Date: July 1, 2008 Subject(s): Credit demand \| Household credit \| Bank credit \| Loans \| Risk management \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): credit screening \| loan quality \| signaling games \| incentive compatibility

Title: What Goes Up Must Come Down? House Price Dynamics in the United States Author/Editor: Klyuev, Vladimir Series: Working Paper No. 08/187 Date: July 1, 2008 Subject(s): United States \| Housing prices Author's keyword(s): House prices

Title: Real Effects of the Subprime Mortgage Crisis: Is it a Demand or a Finance Shock? Author/Editor: Tong, Hui ; Wei, Shang-Jin Series: Working Paper No. 08/186 Date: July 1, 2008 Subject(s): United States \| Consumer credit \| Borrowing \| Demand \| External shocks \| Liquidity controls \| Financial crisis \| Spillovers \| Stock prices Author's keyword(s): liquidity constraint \| demand contraction

Title: Rising Income Inequality: Technology, or Trade and Financial Globalization? Author/Editor: Jaumotte, Florence ; Lall, Subir ; Papageorgiou, Chris Series: Working Paper No. 08/185 Date: July 1, 2008 Subject(s): Income distribution \| Globalization \| Foreign direct investment \| Human capital \| Education \| Economic models \| Trade models Author's keyword(s): Income inequality \| mechanisms \| trade globalization \| financial globalization \| technological progress \| FDI.

Title: Credit Growth in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia Region Author/Editor: Crowley, Joe Series: Working Paper No. 08/184 Date: July 1, 2008 Subject(s): Working Paper \| Middle East and Central Asia \| North Africa Author's keyword(s): Credit \| Credit Growth \| Oil \| Oil Inflows

Title: Kernel Density Estimation Based on Grouped Data: The Case of Poverty Assessment Author/Editor: Minoiu, Camelia ; Reddy, Sanjay G. Series: Working Paper No. 08/183 Date: July 1, 2008 Subject(s): Poverty \| Economic models \| Income distribution \| Data analysis Author's keyword(s): kernel density estimation \| income distribution \| grouped data \| poverty

Title: Technology and Finance Author/Editor: Ilyina, Anna ; Samaniego, Roberto Series: Working Paper No. 08/182 Date: July 1, 2008 Subject(s): Technology transfer \| External financing \| Industrial investment \| Investment policy \| Development \| Production growth Author's keyword(s): Technology \| financial development \| external finance dependence \| industry growth \| R&D intensity \| investment lumpiness.

Title: Convergence in Emerging Europe: Sustainability and Vulnerabilities Author/Editor: Vamvakidis, Athanasios Series: Working Paper No. 08/181 Date: July 1, 2008 Subject(s): Europe \| Emerging markets \| Transition economies \| Balance of payments \| Economic growth \| Current account balances \| External debt Author's keyword(s): European Economy \| Economic Growth \| Current Account Adjustment.

Title: Bank Recycling of Petro Dollars to Emerging Market Economies During the Current Oil Price Boom Author/Editor: Wiegand, Johannes Series: Working Paper No. 08/180 Date: July 1, 2008 Subject(s): Recycling process \| Oil producing countries \| Oil exports \| Capital flows \| Emerging markets \| Bank credit \| International trade Author's keyword(s): Petro dollars \| capital flows \| oil exporters \| emerging markets \| bank lending

Title: Germany's Corporate Governance Reforms: Has the System Become Flexible Enough? Author/Editor: Odenius, Jürgen Series: Working Paper No. 08/179 Date: July 1, 2008 Subject(s): Germany \| Corporate governance \| Economic reforms \| Securities regulations Author's keyword(s): Corporate governance \| internal control \| self-dealing \| external control

Title: The Impact of Research and Development Tax Incentives on Colombia's Manufacturing Sector: What Difference Do They Make? Author/Editor: Mercer-Blackman, Valerie Series: Working Paper No. 08/178 Date: July 1, 2008 Subject(s): Colombia \| Tax incentives \| Manufacturing sector \| Industrial investment \| Economic models \| Development Author's keyword(s): Taxes \| research and development \| Colombia \| investment \| R&D capital

Title: Consumer Confusion: The Choice of AFORE in Mexico Author/Editor: Calderon-Colin, Roberto ; Dominguez, Enrique E. ; Schwartz, Moises Series: Working Paper No. 08/177 Date: July 1, 2008 Subject(s): Mexico \| Pensions \| Pension supervision \| Competition \| Demand Author's keyword(s): Pensions \| defined contribution \| individual accounts \| competition \| retirement savings \| consumer choice \| consumer confusion \| noise distribution \| mark-up.

Title: Central Bank Financial Strength and Policy Performance: An Econometric Evaluation Author/Editor: Klueh, Ulrich H. ; Stella, Peter Series: Working Paper No. 08/176 Date: July 1, 2008 Subject(s): Central banks \| Central bank autonomy \| Inflation \| Economic indicators \| Economic integration \| Working Paper Author's keyword(s): Central bank capital \| central bank independence \| inflation

Title: Inflation Smoothing and the Modest Effect of VAT in Germany Author/Editor: Carare, Alina ; Danninger, Stephan Series: Working Paper No. 08/175 Date: July 1, 2008 Subject(s): Germany \| Inflation \| Value added tax \| Price increases \| Competition Author's keyword(s): Inflation \| VAT

Title: A Framework for Developing Secondary Markets for Government Securities Author/Editor: Árvai, Zsófia ; Heenan, Geoffrey Series: Working Paper No. 08/174 Date: July 1, 2008 Subject(s): Securities markets \| Government finance statistics \| Capital markets \| Public debt \| Monetary policy \| Fiscal policy Author's keyword(s): Capital markets \| government securities \| market development

Title: Determinants of Foreign Currency Borrowing in the New Member States of the EU Author/Editor: Rosenberg, Christoph B. ; Tirpák, Marcel Series: Working Paper No. 08/173 Date: July 1, 2008 Subject(s): Europe \| European Union \| External borrowing \| Private sector \| Foreign investment \| Exchange rate regimes \| Euro Author's keyword(s): Foreign currency borrowing \| new EU member states \| Central and Eastern Europe

Title: Africa's Oil Abundance and External Competitiveness: Do Institutions Matter? Author/Editor: Qureshi, Mahvash Saeed Series: Working Paper No. 08/172 Date: July 1, 2008 Subject(s): Sub-Saharan Africa \| Oil producing countries \| Oil exporting countries \| Competition \| Financial institutions \| Terms of trade \| Export diversification \| Foreign investment Author's keyword(s): oil abundance \| competitiveness \| institutions \| gravity model \| sub-Saharan Africa

Title: The ECB’s Monetary Analysis Revisited Author/Editor: Berger, Helge ; Harjes, Thomas ; Stavrev, Emil Series: Working Paper No. 08/171 Date: July 1, 2008 Subject(s): European Central Bank \| Monetary policy \| Central bank policy \| Economic models \| Asset prices \| Consumer prices \| Financial sector \| Money Author's keyword(s): ECB \| monetary analysis \| monetary pillar \| New Keynesian model \| DSGE model \| P* model \| Two-pillar Phillips curve \| VAR model \| generalized dynamic factor model

Title: Natural Resource Endowments, Governance, and the Domestic RevenueEffort: Evidence from a Panel of Countries Author/Editor: Bornhorst, Fabian ; Gupta, Sanjeev ; Thornton, John Series: Working Paper No. 08/170 Date: July 1, 2008 Subject(s): Hydrocarbons \| Revenues \| Oil revenues \| Taxation \| Governance \| Corruption Author's keyword(s): hydrocarbon revenues; domestic revenue effort; governance

Title: Credit Matters: Empirical Evidence on U.S. Macro-Financial Linkages Author/Editor: Bayoumi, Tamim ; Melander, Ola Series: Working Paper No. 08/169 Date: July 1, 2008 Subject(s): United States \| Credit \| External shocks \| Capital markets \| Asset ratio \| Consumer credit \| Corporate sector \| Loans \| Gross domestic product Author's keyword(s): Macro-Financial \| Credit \| Lending Standards \| Bank Capital \| Financial Accelerator

Title: The Distributional Impact of Fiscal Policy in Honduras Author/Editor: Gillingham, Robert ; Newhouse, David Locke ; Yackovlev, Irene Series: Working Paper No. 08/168 Date: July 1, 2008 Subject(s): Honduras \| Fiscal policy \| Tax policy \| Subsidies \| Health care \| Pensions \| Education Author's keyword(s): Tax policy \| expenditure policy \| subsidies \| welfare distribution \| household survey data

Title: Do the Gulf Oil-Producing Countries Influence Regional Growth? the Impact of Financial and Remittance Flows Author/Editor: Ilahi, Nadeem ; Shendy, Riham Series: Working Paper No. 08/167 Date: July 1, 2008 Subject(s): Middle East \| Oil producing countries \| Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf \| Economic growth \| Capital flows \| Gross domestic product \| Private consumption \| Private investment \| Outward remittances \| Regional shocks \| Oil prices \| Capital markets \| Business cycles \| Emerging markets Author's keyword(s): Business cycle \| emerging markets \| growth linkages \| North \| South \| Middle East \| GCC \| regional linkage \| decoupling \| divergence \| convergence \| remittances \| capital flows.

Title: The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation Author/Editor: Berger, Helge ; Stavrev, Emil Series: Working Paper No. 08/166 Date: July 1, 2008 Subject(s): Euro Area \| Money \| Inflation \| Forecasting models \| Monetary policy \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Information content of money \| inflation forecasting \| New Keynesian model \| DSGE model \| P* model \| Two-pillar Phillips curve \| VAR model \| general dynamic factor model \| Bayesian estimation \| euro area

Title: Reforming Government Subsidies in the New Member States of the European Union Author/Editor: Mulas-Granados, Carlos ; Koranchelian, Taline ; Segura-Ubiergo, Alex Series: Working Paper No. 08/165 Date: July 1, 2008 Subject(s): European Union \| Subsidies \| Economic reforms \| Agricultural subsidies \| Industrial subsidies Author's keyword(s): European Union \| new member states \| subsidy reform \| state aid to enterprises \| agricultural subsidies \| energy subsidies \| and transportation subsidies

Title: Strategic Interactions between an Independent Central Bank and a Myopic Government with Government Debt Author/Editor: Stehn, Sven Jari ; Vines, David Series: Working Paper No. 08/164 Date: July 1, 2008 Subject(s): Central banks \| Monetary authorities \| Intergovernmental fiscal relations \| Government expenditures \| Fiscal policy \| Stabilization measures Author's keyword(s): Monetary and Fiscal Policy \| Policy Myopia \| Non-cooperative games \| Stabilisation Bias

Title: Vacation Over: Implications for the Caribbean of Opening U.S.-Cuba Tourism Author/Editor: Romeu, Rafael Series: Working Paper No. 08/162 Date: July 1, 2008 Subject(s): Tourism \| Bilateral trade \| Caribbean \| Trade liberalization \| Forecasting models \| Cuba \| United States Author's keyword(s): Trade \| Tourism \| Cuba \| Gravity

June 2008

Title: Medium-Term Budgetary Frameworks - Lessons for Austria from International Experience Author/Editor: Lundbäck, Erik J. Series: Working Paper No. 08/163 Date: June 1, 2008 Subject(s): Austria \| Fiscal policy \| Fiscal management \| National budgets \| Government expenditures Author's keyword(s): Fiscal Frameworks \| Fiscal Rules

Title: A U.S. Financial Conditions Index: Putting Credit Where Credit is Due Author/Editor: Swiston, Andrew Series: Working Paper No. 08/161 Date: June 1, 2008 Subject(s): United States \| Economic conditions \| Credit \| Business cycles \| Monetary policy Author's keyword(s): Financial conditions index \| vector autoregression \| credit channel \| macro-financial linkages

Title: A Review of Capital Budgeting Practices Author/Editor: Jacobs, Davina F. Series: Working Paper No. 08/160 Date: June 1, 2008 Subject(s): Government expenditures \| Budgetary policy \| National budgets \| Public investment \| Low-income developing countries Author's keyword(s): Capital expenditure; public financial management; budgets; public investment \| low-income countries

Title: Resolving a Large Contingent Fiscal Liability: Eastern Europe Experience Author/Editor: Flanagan, Mark J Series: Working Paper No. 08/159 Date: June 1, 2008 Subject(s): Eastern Europe \| Balance of payments deficits \| Budget deficits \| Fiscal sustainability \| Debt management \| Fiscal stability \| Ukraine Author's keyword(s): Contingent liability; debt management; macroeconomic stabilization; Ukraine

Title: Life Expectancy and Income Convergence in the World:A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis Author/Editor: Ueda, Kenichi Series: Working Paper No. 08/158 Date: June 1, 2008 Subject(s): Income distribution \| Population \| Aging \| Welfare \| Cost of living Author's keyword(s): life expectancy \| value of life \| economic growth \| income convergence.

Title: Dollarization and Maturity Structure of Public Securities: The Experience of Bolivia Author/Editor: Vesperoni, Esteban ; Orellana, Walter Series: Working Paper No. 08/157 Date: June 1, 2008 Subject(s): Bolivia Author's keyword(s): Bolivia \| debt profiles \| maturity structure \| currency composition

Title: Modeling Macro-Critical Energy Sectors in Low-Income Countries: A General Framework and an Application to Côte d'Ivoire Author/Editor: Fabig, Holger Series: Working Paper No. 08/156 Date: June 1, 2008 Subject(s): Côte d'Ivoire \| Energy sector \| Oil production \| Natural gas \| Electric power \| Hydrocarbons \| Transparency Author's keyword(s): Energy sector modeling \| low-income countries \| hydrocarbon production \| petroleum products \| electricity \| transparency \| Côte d'Ivoire

Title: Fiscal Policy and Economic Development Author/Editor: Mourmouras, Alex ; Rangazas, Peter Series: Working Paper No. 08/155 Date: June 1, 2008 Subject(s): Fiscal policy \| Development \| Developed countries \| Developing countries \| Government finance statistics \| Taxation Author's keyword(s): fiscal policy; structural transformation; economic development; size of government; agriculture; infrastructures; calibrated dynamic general equilibrium models

Title: Bolivia: The Hydrocarbons Boom and the Risk of Dutch Disease Author/Editor: Cerutti, Eugenio ; Mansilla, Mario Series: Working Paper No. 08/154 Date: June 1, 2008 Subject(s): Hydrocarbons \| Bolivia \| Natural resources \| Exports \| Manufacturing sector \| Real effective exchange rates Author's keyword(s): Bolivia \| Dutch Disease \| Hydrocarbons \| Equilibrium Real Exchange

Title: Bivariate Assessments of Real Exchange Rates Using PPP Data Author/Editor: Zalduendo, Juan Series: Working Paper No. 08/153 Date: June 1, 2008 Subject(s): Exchange rates \| Purchasing power parity \| Prices Author's keyword(s): Real exchange rate

Title: A Model of Sovereign Debt in Democracies Author/Editor: Alichi, Ali Series: Working Paper No. 08/152 Date: June 1, 2008 Subject(s): Sovereign debt \| International capital markets \| Political economy \| Economic models \| Data analysis Author's keyword(s): Sovereign Debt \| Political Economy

Title: How does a domestic tax reform effect protection against imports? The case of the Republic of Madagascar Author/Editor: Hallaert, Jean-Jacques Series: Working Paper No. 08/151 Date: June 1, 2008 Subject(s): Madagascar \| Tax reforms \| Imports \| Excise taxes \| Value added tax \| Tax policy \| Trade policy Author's keyword(s): Tax reform \| Protection \| Trade Policy \| Tax Policy \| Madagascar.

Title: Foreign Reserve Adequacy in sub-Saharan Africa Author/Editor: Drummond, Paulo Flavio Nacif ; Dhasmana, Anubha Series: Working Paper No. 08/150 Date: June 1, 2008 Subject(s): Sub-Saharan Africa \| Reserves adequacy \| Foreign exchange reserves \| Balance of payments \| Terms of trade \| Regional shocks Author's keyword(s): Foreign Exchange Reserves \| Balance of Payments Crises \| Terms of Trade and Aid Shocks

Title: International Reserves and Self-Insurance against External Shocks Author/Editor: Barnichon, Régis Series: Working Paper No. 08/149 Date: June 1, 2008 Subject(s): Foreign exchange reserves \| Reserves \| Balance of payments \| External shocks \| Imports \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Foreign Exchange Reserves \| Natural Disasters \| Terms of Trade Shocks

Title: Stressing to Breaking Point: Interpreting Stress Test Results Author/Editor: Worrell, DeLisle Series: Working Paper No. 08/148 Date: June 1, 2008 Subject(s): Financial risk \| Banking systems \| Bank regulations \| External shocks \| Credit risk \| Interest rates \| Capital flows Author's keyword(s): Stress test \| financial risk assessment.

Title: Financial Supervisory Independence and Accountability-Exploring the Determinants Author/Editor: Masciandaro, Donato ; Quintyn, Marc ; Taylor, Michael Series: Working Paper No. 08/147 Date: June 1, 2008 Subject(s): Working Paper \| Governance \| Bank supervision \| Central banks \| Political economy Author's keyword(s): Financial supervision; central banking; independence \| accountability \| governance \| political economy.

Title: Trade Openness and Volatility Author/Editor: di Giovanni, Julian ; Levchenko, Andrei A. Series: Working Paper No. 08/146 Date: June 1, 2008 Subject(s): Working Paper \| International trade \| Trade liberalization \| Trade policy \| Industrial production \| Manufacturing sector Author's keyword(s): Trade \| Output Volatility \| Specialization \| Comovement \| Sector-Level Data

Title: Why are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising? Author/Editor: Chamon, Marcos ; Prasad, Eswar Series: Working Paper No. 08/145 Date: June 1, 2008 Subject(s): China, People's Republic of \| Private savings \| Income \| Economic growth \| Private consumption Author's keyword(s): household savings \| age and cohort profiles of savings \| borrowing constraints \| precautionary savings financial development \| demographics

Title: Sudden Stops and Optimal Self-Insurance Author/Editor: Kim, Jun Il Series: Working Paper No. 08/144 Date: June 1, 2008 Subject(s): Developing countries \| Reserves \| Reserves adequacy \| Insurance Author's keyword(s): sudden stop \| country insurance \| optimal reserves \| global game

Title: Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling? Author/Editor: Kose, M. Ayhan ; Otrok, Christopher ; Prasad, Eswar Series: Working Paper No. 08/143 Date: June 1, 2008 Subject(s): Business cycles \| Globalization \| Developed countries \| Developing countries \| Spillovers \| Economic conditions \| Economic integration Author's keyword(s): Globalization \| business cycles \| macroeconomic fluctuations \| convergence \| decoupling.

Title: Constraints on the Design and Implementation of Monetary Policy in Oil Economies: The Case of Venezuela Author/Editor: da Costa, Mercedes ; Olivo, Víctor Series: Working Paper No. 08/142 Date: June 1, 2008 Subject(s): Venezuela, Republica Bolivariana de \| Oil exporting countries \| Oil exports \| Monetary policy \| Fiscal policy \| Venezuela, República Bolivariana de Author's keyword(s): Monetary Policy \| Fiscal Policy \| Oil Economies.

Title: Herd Behavior in Financial Markets: An Experiment with Financial Market Professionals Author/Editor: Cipriani, Marco ; Guarino, Antonio Series: Working Paper No. 08/141 Date: June 1, 2008 Subject(s): Capital markets \| Price controls \| Economic models \| Data analysis Author's keyword(s): Herding \| Contrarianism \| Financial Market Professionals

May 2008

Title: Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdown on Thai Growth Author/Editor: Aiyar, Shekhar ; Tchakarov, Ivan Series: Working Paper No. 08/140 Date: May 1, 2008 Subject(s): Thailand \| Economic growth \| Exports \| Economic forecasting Author's keyword(s): Growth; U.S. Slowdown; Bayesian Estimation; Thailand

Title: Tanzania's Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate Author/Editor: Hobdari, Niko Series: Working Paper No. 08/138 Date: May 1, 2008 Subject(s): Tanzania \| Exchange rate depreciation \| Exchange rates \| Fiscal sustainability \| Terms of trade \| Capital inflows Author's keyword(s): Exchange Rate \| Bank of Tanzania

Title: Fiscal Positions in Latin America:Have They Really Improved? Author/Editor: Hollar, Ivanna Vladkova ; Zettelmeyer, Jeromin Series: Working Paper No. 08/137 Date: May 1, 2008 Subject(s): South America \| Central America \| Latin America \| Revenue sources \| Tax revenues \| Commodity markets \| Balance of payments \| Business cycles Author's keyword(s): revenues \| taxes \| structural fiscal balance \| commodity prices

Title: Government Spending on Health Care and Education in Croatia: Efficiency and Reform Options Author/Editor: Jafarov, Etibar ; Gunnarsson, Victoria Series: Working Paper No. 08/136 Date: May 1, 2008 Subject(s): Croatia \| Government expenditures \| Health care \| Education Author's keyword(s): Expenditure efficiency; health care spending; education spending

Title: Central Bank Involvement in Banking Crises in Latin America Author/Editor: Jácome, Luis Ignacio Series: Working Paper No. 08/135 Date: May 1, 2008 Subject(s): South America \| Latin America \| Central America \| Central banks \| Financial crisis \| Banking crisis Author's keyword(s): Central banks \| monetary policy \| banking crises \| financial instability

Title: Trade Sensitivity to Exchange Rates in the Context of Intra-Industry Trade Author/Editor: Oguro, Yoko ; Fukao, Kyoji ; Khatri, Yougesh Series: Working Paper No. 08/134 Date: May 1, 2008 Subject(s): Working Paper \| India \| Globalization \| Monetary policy \| Capital inflows \| Economic conditions \| Liquidity management Author's keyword(s): Trade \| Exchange rates \| Intra-industry trade

Title: Crude Oil Prices: Trends and Forecast Author/Editor: Krichene, Noureddine Series: Working Paper No. 08/133 Date: May 1, 2008 Subject(s): Oil prices \| Commodity prices \| Exchange rate depreciation \| Inflation \| Monetary policy Author's keyword(s): Characteristic function \| crude oil prices \| density forecast \| Esscher transform \| Fourier transform \| inverse problem \| normal inverse Gaussian \| monetary policy \| option prices.

Title: Why Do Countries Peg the Way They Peg?The Determinants of Anchor Currency Choice Author/Editor: Meissner, Christopher M. ; Oomes, Nienke Series: Working Paper No. 08/132 Date: May 1, 2008 Subject(s): Currency pegs \| Exchange rates \| International monetary system Author's keyword(s): exchange rate regime; anchor; network externalities; optimal currency area

Title: Challenges to Monetary Policy from Financial Globalization: The Case of India Author/Editor: Kramer, Charles Frederick ; Poirson, Hélène ; Prasad, A. Series: Working Paper No. 08/131 Date: May 1, 2008 Subject(s): India \| Monetary policy \| Globalization \| Capital inflows \| Economic conditions \| Domestic liquidity \| Liquidity management Author's keyword(s): capital flows \| excess liquidity \| financial globalization \| India \| liquidity management \| monetary policy \| monetary policy framework

Title: Recent Inflationary Trends in World Commodities Markets Author/Editor: Krichene, Noureddine Series: Working Paper No.08/130 Date: May 1, 2008 Subject(s): Commodity markets \| Commodity prices \| Inflation \| Exchange rate depreciation \| Developed countries \| Monetary policy \| Consumer price indexes \| External shocks Author's keyword(s): Commodities prices \| common trends \| monetary policy \| variance decomposition.

Title: Tax Administration Reform and Fiscal Adjustment:The Case of Indonesia(2001-07) Author/Editor: Brondolo, John ; Silvani, Carlos ; Le Borgne, Eric ; Bosch, Frank Series: Working Paper No. 08/129 Date: May 1, 2008 Subject(s): Indonesia \| Tax administration \| Tax reforms \| Fiscal reforms \| Investment Author's keyword(s): Indonesia \| tax administration \| fiscal adjustment

Title: Chile: Trade Performance,Trade Liberalization, and Competitiveness Author/Editor: Monfort, Brieuc Series: Working Paper No. 08/128 Date: May 1, 2008 Subject(s): Chile \| Trade liberalization \| Competition \| Exports \| Imports Author's keyword(s): trade elasticities \| trade liberalization; competitiveness.

Title: Financial Integration and Risk-Adjusted Growth Opportunities Author/Editor: De Nicoló, Gianni ; Ivaschenko, Iryna V. Series: Working Paper No. 08/126 Date: May 1, 2008 Subject(s): Working Paper \| Economic integration \| Developed countries \| Developing countries \| Globalization \| Liquidity \| Financial risk Author's keyword(s): financial integration \|