Regional Economic Outlook
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April 2024
Coming Soon: Regional Economic Outlook, Western Hemisphere, April 19th, 2024
April 19, 2024
Description: Coming Soon: Regional Economic Outlook, Western Hemisphere, April 19th, 2024
Coming Soon: Regional Economic Outlook for Europe, April 2024
April 19, 2024
Description: Description: The Regional Economic Outlook for Europe, April 2024 will be available on April 19.
Coming Soon: Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, April 2024
April 19, 2024
Description: The Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, April 2024 will available on April 19.
Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia, April 2024: Coming Soon
April 18, 2024
Description: Stay tuned for the April 2024 Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia release on IMF.org.
Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and Pacific
April 11, 2024
Description: Asia and Pacific Department Director, Krishna Srinivasan will give an overview of the economic outlook, discuss policy challenges, & answer reporters’ questions. Full report will be released in Singapore on April 29, 10 PM ET.
January 2024
Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and North Africa
January 31, 2024
Description:
Conflict Compounding Economic Challenges
The conflict in Gaza and Israel is yet another shock to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. It
is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating an already challenging environment for
neighboring economies and beyond. This Update covers economies in the MENA region and does not
discuss developments in Israel. Overall, the major factors weighing on regional growth in MENA are
(i) the impact of the conflict; (ii) oil production cuts (even as robust non-oil sector activity continues to
support growth in several oil exporters); and (iii) continued necessary tight policy settings in several
economies. Social unrest has also picked up. Projected growth in the MENA region this year is
downgraded by 0.5 percentage point to 2.9 percent (relative to the October 2023 Regional Economic
Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia), from already weak growth of 2.0 percent in 2023. Primarily driven
by the ongoing conflict in Sudan, average growth across low-income countries (LICs) in MENA is forecast
to remain negative this year, continuing the estimated sharp decline in 2023. Disinflation is expected to
continue in most MENA economies, although price pressures have proven persistent in some cases
because of country-specific factors.
The outlook for the MENA region is highly uncertain, and downside risks are resurgent. An escalation or
spread of the conflict beyond Gaza and Israel, as well as an intensification of the disruptions in the Red
Sea, could have a severe economic impact, including on trade and tourism.
The appropriate policy response will depend on countries’ exposure to the conflict, preexisting
vulnerabilities, and policy space. Crisis management and precautionary policies will be critical where the
impact is acute, or risks are elevated. Elsewhere, countries will need to continue to fortify buffers.
Monetary policy will need to remain focused on price stability, and fiscal policy should be tailored to
country needs and available fiscal space. Structural reforms remain critical to boosting growth and
strengthening resilience in both the near and longer terms.
November 2023
Restoring Price Stability and Securing Strong and Green Growth
November 8, 2023
Description:
Restoring Price Stability and Securing Strong and Green Growth
Europe is at a turning point. After last year’s crippling energy price shock caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe faces the difficult task of restoring price stability now while securing strong and green growth in the medium term. Economic activity has started to cool and inflation to fall as a result of monetary policy action, phasing-out supply shocks, and falling energy prices. Sustained wage growth could, however, delay achieving price stability by 2025. Failing to tackle inflation now will risk additional growth damage in a world exposed to structural shocks from fragmentation and climate change. These global headwinds add to Europe’s long-standing productivity and convergence problems. To lift Europe’s potential for strong and green growth, countries need to remove obstacles to economic dynamism and upgrade infrastructure. This will strengthen business-friendly conditions and investment. Cooperation at the European level and with international partners will position Europe as a leader in the climate transition and support economic stability across the continent.
October 2023
Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere, October 2023
October 13, 2023
Description: After a stronger-than-expected pandemic recovery and continued resilience in early 2023, economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean is softening as the effect of tighter policies to combat inflation and the timely withdrawal of pandemic-related fiscal stimulus take hold and the external environment weakens.
Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and Pacific, October 2023
October 13, 2023
Description:
Challenges to Sustaining Growth and Disinflation
The Asia-Pacific region remains a key driver of global growth in 2023, despite facing headwinds from changing global demand from goods to services and tighter monetary policies. The region is expected to grow by 4.6 percent in 2023, up from 3.9 percent in 2022. However, growth is projected to slow to 4.2 percent in 2024 and 3.9 percent in the medium term, as China's structural slowdown (Chapter 3 explains) and lower productivity growth in many other economies dampen the region's potential. Inflation is expected to decline in 2024 and stay within central bank target ranges in most countries, a faster pace of disinflation than in other regions (Chapter 2 explains.) Risks to the outlook have become more balanced than they were six months ago, although they still lean to the downside.
Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia, October 2023
October 12, 2023
Description:
Building Resilience and Fostering Sustainable Growth Across the Middle East and Central Asia, the combined effects of global headwinds, domestic challenges, and geopolitical risks weigh on economic momentum, and the outlook is highly uncertain. Growth is set to slow this year in the Middle East and North Africa region, driven by lower oil production, tight policy settings in emerging market and middle-income economies, the conflict in Sudan, and other country-specific factors. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, although migration, trade, and financial inflows following Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to support economic activity, growth is set to moderate slightly this year.