WEO Cover

World Economic Outlook

October 1997

A Survey by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund

©1997 International Monetary Fund     Disclaimer     Order Information

Assumptions and Conventions
Chapter I. Global Economic Prospects and Policies

Advanced Economies

Developing Countries

Transition Countries

Chapter II. Issues in the Current Conjuncture

Summary of the Projections

Global Issues

Advanced Economies

Developing Countries

Countries in Transition
Chapter III. EMU and the World Economy

EMU: A New Policy Regime

Establishing the Conditions for a Successful EMU

Managing Uncertainties in the Preparations for EMU

External Effects of EMU

Reaping the Benefits of EMU: The Importance of Fiscal and Labor

Market Reforms
Chapter IV. Exchange Rate Arrangements and Economic Performance in Developing Countries

Changing Pattern of Exchange Rate Arrangements

Factors Underlying the Evolution of Exchange Rate Arrangements

Analytical Issues in the Choice of Regime

Macroeconomic Characteristics of Exchange Rate Regimes

Exchange Rate Arrangements—Problems and Policies

Challenges of Rapid Growth and Capital Inflows for Exchange Rate Regimes

Capital Account Convertibility
Chapter V. Monetary and Financial Sector Policies in Transition Countries

Recent Conduct of Monetary Policy

Development of Market-Based Instruments for Monetary Policy

Development of Efficient Banking Systems

Other Factors Affecting Conduct and Transmission of Monetary Policy

New Challenges for Monetary Policy
II 1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
PDF version of Table 1    Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this file.

2. Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment Rates


Major Industrial Countries: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt

4. Selected Developing Countries: Real GDP and Consumer Prices

5. Countries in Transition: Real GDP and Consumer Prices

6. Selected Economies: Current Account Positions

7. Capital Flows to Developing Countries, Countries in Transition, And Newly Industrialized Economies

8. Major Industrial Countries: Questions About Inflationary Pressures

9. Selected Latin American Countries: Macroeconomic Indicators Of Cyclical Change

10. Sub-Saharan Africa: Recent Economic Developments and Their Distribution
III 11. European Union: Convergence Indicators for 1996, 1997, and 1998

12. United States, Japan, and the European Union: Economic Size and Relative Use of Currencies

13. Implications of EMU for Europe and the Rest of the World—Simulation Results
IV 14. Developing Countries: Officially Reported Exchange Rate Arrangements

15. Geographical Distribution of Officially Reported Exchange Rate Arrangements

16. Implicit Weights of U.S. Dollar and Japanese Yen in Nominal Values of Selected Asian Currencies

17. Considerations in the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime

18. Exchange Rate Regime and Main Source of Export Earnings

19. Currency Crashes by Exchange Rate Regime


Countries in Transition: Exchange Rate Regime and Monetary Policy Instruments, August 1997

21. Countries in Transition: Annual Growth Rates of Broad Money and Domestic Credit

22. Countries in Transition: Real Interest Rates

23. Countries in Transition: Income Velocity of Broad Money

24. Countries in Transition: Money Multipliers


Russia and the Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union: Rankings Of Progress with Establishment of Market-Based Monetary Operations And Governments Securities Markets

26. Selected Countries in Transition: Interest Rate Spread

27. Countries in Transition: Dollarization Ratios

28. Selected Countries in Transition: Net Capital Inflows
I 1. World Output and Inflation

2. European Union: General Government Budget Positions

3. Changing Relative Positions in the World Economy
II 4. Major Industrial Countries: Output Gaps

5. Major Industrial Countries: Monetary Conditions Indices

6. Three Major Industrial Countries: Policy-Related Interest Rates And Ten-Year Government Bond Yields

7. European Union and the United States: Indicators of Consumer Confidence

8. Selected Advanced Economies: Inflation

9. Developing Countries: Inflation

10. Major Industrial Countries: Nominal Interest Rates

11. Equity Prices

12. Major Industrial Countries: Average Earnings and Unit Labor Costs in the Manufacturing Sector

13. Commodity Prices

14. Major Industrial Countries: Effective Exchange Rates

15. Selected Advanced Economies: Employment and Unemployment

16. Selected Advanced Economies: Unemployment Rates

17. Japan: Output Developments

18. India and Pakistan: Macroeconomic Indicators
III 19. Trade Within the European Union

20. Selected Advanced Economies: Openness

21. European Union: Inflation and General Government Balance

22. European Union: Inflation, General Government Balance, and Gross Debt

23. Selected Developing and Transition Countries: Trade and Financial Links with the European Union

24. Selected Developing and Transition Countries: Shares of Trade With the European Union
IV 25. Developing Countries: Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes

26. Developing Countries: Share of Output and Trade by Exchange Rate Regime

27. Developing Countries: Growth and Inflation by Exchange Rate Regime

28. Developing Countries: Openness by Exchange Rate Regime

29. Developing Countries: Exchange Rate Movements of Countries with Pegged and Countries with Official Declared Flexible Exchange Rate Arrangements
V 30. Selected Countries in Transition: Inflation

31. Latvia, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union: Importance of Seigniorage in 1996
1. Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections

2. Alternative Exchange Rate Assumptions for Japan

3. The European Union’s Stability and Growth Pact

4. Asymmetric Shocks: European Union and the United States

5. Currency Boards

6. Dollarization

7. Financial Sector Problems and Monetary Policy in Countries in Transition

8. Relative Price Adjustment and Price Convergence in Transition Countries

9. Hong Kong, China: Economic Linkages and Institutional Arrangements

10. Scenario Assumptions


I. China—Growth and Economic Reform

II. Implications of Structural Reforms Under EMU
Statistical Appendix

Ordering Information

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