/external/pubind.htmIMF PublicationsImf.Org RSS Feed GeneratorENhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40574Country Report No. 13/13824 May 2013 09:00:00 ESTCountry reporthttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40574http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40573Country Report No. 13/13724 May 2013 09:00:00 ESTCountry reporthttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40573http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40572Country Report No. 13/13624 May 2013 09:00:00 ESTCountry reporthttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40572http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40571Country Report No.13/13524 May 2013 09:00:00 ESTCountry reporthttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40571http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40570Country Report No.13/13424 May 2013 09:00:00 ESTCountry reporthttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40570http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40569Country Report No. 13/13324 May 2013 09:00:00 ESTCountry reporthttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40569http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40561Country Report No. 13/13023 May 2013 09:00:00 ESTCountry reporthttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40561http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40568Traditional bank competition policy seeks to balance efficiency with incentives to take risk. The main tools are rules guiding entry/exit and consolidation of banks. This paper seeks to refine this view in light of recent changes to financial services provision. Modern banking is largely market-based and contestable. Consequently, banks in advanced economies today have structurally low charter values and high incentives to take risk. In such an environment, traditional policies that seek to affect the degree of competition by focusing on market structure (i.e. concentration) may have limited effect. We argue that bank competition policy should be reoriented to deal with the too-big-to-fail (TBTF) problem. It should also focus on the permissible scope of activities rather than on market structure of banks. And following a crisis, competition policy should facilitate resolution by temporarily allowing higher concentration and government control of banks.23 May 2013 09:00:00 ESTWorking Paperhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40568http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40567The paper explores the extent to which the pressure of debt service on other spending items may push governments to embark on fiscal consolidation beyond what is strictly necessary to secure solvency. The empirical analysis identifies thresholds of interest bill indicators beyond which governments appear to shift to policies aimed at durably curbing the debt trajectory. Hence, in the current context of high inherited public debts, countries experiencing rising borrowing costs and interest payments would be more likely to enact more aggressive fiscal consolidations than warranted by strict solvency concerns. Conversely, those benefiting from persistently low interest rates despite rising debt stocks would likely opt for a more gradual fiscal consolidation path than what solvency considerations would normally dictate.22 May 2013 09:00:00 ESTWorking Paperhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40567http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40566Notwithstanding persistently-high unemployment following the Great Recession, inflation in the United States has been remarkably stable. We find that a traditional Phillips curve describes the behavior of inflation reasonably well since the 1960s. Using a non-linear Kalman filter that allows for time-varying parameters, we find that three factors have contributed to the observed stability of inflation: inflation expectations have become better anchored and to a lower level; the slope of the Phillips curve has flattened; and the importance of import-price inflation has increased.22 May 2013 09:00:00 ESTWorking Paperhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40566http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40565The small states of the Asia and Pacific region face unique challenges in raising their growth potential and living standards relative to other small states due to their small populations, geographical isolation and dispersion, narrow export and production bases, exposure to shocks, and heavy reliance on aid. Higher fixed government costs, low access to credit by the private sector, and capacity constraints are also key challenges. The econometric analysis confirms that the Pacific Island Countries (PICs) have underperformed relative to their peers over the last 20 years. Although these countries often face more limited policy tools, policies do matter and can further help build resilience and raise potential growth, as evidenced in the recent business cycle. The Asia and Pacific small states should continue rebuilding buffers and improve the composition of public spending in order to foster inclusive growth. Regional solutions should also continue to be pursued.22 May 2013 09:00:00 ESTWorking Paperhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40565http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40562Emerging market policy makers have been concerned about the financial stability implications of financial globalization. These concerns are focused on behavior under stressed conditions. Do tail events in the home country trigger off extreme responses by foreign investors – are foreign investors `fair weather friends'? In this, is there asymmetry between the response of foreign investors to very good versus very bad days? Do foreign investors have a major impact on domestic markets through large inflows or outflows – are they ‘big fish in a small pond’? Do extreme events in world markets induce extreme behavior by foreign investors, thus making them vectors of crisis transmission? We propose a modified event study methodology focused on tail events, which yields evidence on these questions. The results, for India, do not suggest that financial globalization has induced instability on the equity market.22 May 2013 09:00:00 ESTWorking Paperhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40562http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40560This paper investigates the potential relationships between financial structures and economic outcomes. The empirical results that withstand a battery of methods suggest that some financial intermediation structures are likely to be more closely related to positive economic outcomes than others. For instance, protective financial buffers within institutions have been associated with better economic performance, and a domestic financial system that is dominated by some types of nontraditional bank intermediation or that has a high proportion of foreign banks has in some cases been associated with adverse economic outcomes, especially during the financial crisis. The results also suggest that there may be trade-offs between beneficial effects on growth and stability of some financial structures. For example, the positive association of financial buffers with growth can diminish above a certain, relatively high, threshold—a too-safe system may limit the available funds for credit and hence growth.22 May 2013 09:00:00 ESTWorking Paperhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40560http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40559How does access to credit impact consumption volatility? Theory and evidence from advanced economies suggests that greater household access to finance smooths consumption. Evidence from emerging markets, where consumption is usually more volatile than income, indicates that financial reform further increases the volatility of consumption relative to output. We address this puzzle in the framework of an emerging economy model in which households face shocks to trend growth rate, and a fraction of them are credit constrained. Unconstrained households can respond to shocks to trend growth by raising current consumption more than rise in current income. Financial reform increases the share of such households, leading to greater relative consumption volatility. Calibration of the model for pre and post financial reform in India provides support for the model's key predictions.22 May 2013 09:00:00 ESTWorking Paperhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40559http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40557We present new evidence on how heterogeneity in banks interacts with monetary policy changes to impact bank lending. Using an exogenous policy measure identified from narratives on FOMC intentions and real-time economic forecasts, we find much greater heterogeneity in U.S. bank lending responses than that found in previous research based on realized federal funds rate changes. Our findings suggest that studies using realized monetary policy changes confound the monetary policy’s effects with those of changes in expected macrofundamentals. We also extend Romer and Romer (2004)’s identification scheme, and expand the time and balance sheet coverage of the U.S. banking sample.22 May 2013 09:00:00 ESTWorking Paperhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40557http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40556The multipliers of taxes, and government consumption and investment expenditure for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) are estimated using vector autoregression models with panel data. The impact and long-run multipliers are below unity, suggesting that a great extent of the intended impulse ends up expanding imported demand. The long-run multipliers of taxes and consumption expenditure are non-different from zero statistically, while public investment has a long-run multiplier of 0.6. The results suggest that countercyclical policies to stimulate growth should focus on public investment.22 May 2013 09:00:00 ESTWorking Paperhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40556http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40564Country Report No. 13/13222 May 2013 09:00:00 ESTCountry reporthttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40564http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40563Country Report No. 13/13122 May 2013 09:00:00 ESTCountry reporthttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40563http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40555Country Report No. 13/12921 May 2013 09:00:00 ESTCountry reporthttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40555http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40552Using data from three household surveys, we review whether growth in Mauritius was inclusive and discuss the incidence of public expenditures and taxes. Generally, Mauritius enjoys an even income distribution and low rates of poverty. Nevertheless, over the 2000s, despite overall progress, the benefits of growth appear to have become more skewed. Employment income is the main contributor to inequality in Mauritius. Social protection expenditures reduce poverty and inequality, but could be better targeted, particularly for pensions. Income taxes are progressive, though given their small relative weight they have a negligible impact on income distribution. The VAT appears relatively progressive compared to other developing countries, although its impact on the overall distribution is also small. With better targeting of the sizable social spending, significant further progress in poverty alleviation could be achieved.17 May 2013 09:00:00 ESTWorking Paperhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40552http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40526The U.S., the U.K., and more recently, the E.U., have proposed policy measures directly targeting complexity and business structures of banks. Unlike other, price-based reforms (e.g., Basel 3 and G-SIFI surcharges), these proposals have been developed unilaterally with material differences in scope, design and implementation schedules. This may exacerbate cross-border regulatory arbitrage and put a further burden on consolidated supervision and cross-border resolution. This paper provides an analysis of the potential implications of implementing different structural policy measures. It proposes a pragmatic and coordinated approach to development of these policies to reduce risk of regulatory arbitrage and minimize unintended consequences. In doing so, it also aims to identify a set of common policy measures that countries could adopt to re-scope bank business models and corporate structures.14 May 2013 09:00:00 ESTStaff Discussionhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40526http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40512This note addresses the following main issues: • Statistical definitions of government (Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001) • Institutional structure of government and public sector • What is a precise definition of government and why it is relevant • Potential pitfalls of lacking a precise definition of government • Definitions of government in IMF-supported programs • Applications for fiscal rules and other fiscal policy design10 May 2013 09:00:00 ESTTechnical Noteshttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40512http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40202The Global Financial Stability Report examines current risks facing the global financial system and policy actions that may mitigate these. It analyzes the key challenges facing financial and nonfinancial firms as they continue to repair their balance sheets. Chapter 2 takes a closer look at whether sovereign credit default swaps markets are good indicators of sovereign credit risk. Chapter 3 examines unconventional monetary policy in some depth, including the policies pursued by the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the U.S. Federal Reserve.17 Apr 2013 09:00:00 ESTGlobal Financialshttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40202http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40203Continued progress in reducing advanced economy deficits and a gradually improving external environment have lowered short-term fiscal risks, according to this issue, but global prospects nevertheless remain subdued, and many advanced economies face a lengthy, difficult, and uncertain path to fiscal sustainability. Though many advanced economies are now close to achieving primary surpluses that will allow them to stabilize their debt ratios, this is only a first step, as merely stabilizing advanced economy debt at current levels would be detrimental to medium- and longer-term economic prospects. The key elements of the required policy package are well known: foremost among them is setting out—and implementing—a clear and credible plan to bring debt ratios down over the medium term. Debt dynamics have remained relatively positive in most emerging market economies and low-income countries, and most plan to continue to allow the automatic stabilizers to operate fully, while pausing the underlying fiscal adjustment process. Those with low general government debt and deficits can afford to maintain a neutral stance in response to a weaker global outlook. But countries with relatively high or quickly increasing debt levels are exposed to sizable risks, especially once effective interest rates rise as monetary policy normalizes in the advanced economies and concessional financing from advanced economies declines. The widespread use of energy subsidies makes commodity prices an additional source of vulnerability in many emerging market and low-income economies; subsidy reform, higher consumption taxes, and broadening of tax bases would help support consolidation efforts.16 Apr 2013 09:00:00 ESTFiscal Monitorhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40203http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40477This note explores how the economic thinking about macroeconomic management has evolved since the crisis began. It discusses developments in monetary policy, including unconventional measures; the challenges associated with increased public debt; and the policy potential, risks, and institutional challenges associated with new macroprudential measures. Rationale: The note contributes to the ongoing debate on several aspects of macroeconomic policy. It follows up on the earlier “Rethinking” paper, refining the analysis in light of the events of the past two years. Given the relatively fluid state of the debate (e.g., recent challenges to central bank independence), it is useful to highlight that while many of the tenets of the pre-crisis consensus have been challenged, others (such as the desirability of central bank independence) remain valid.15 Apr 2013 09:00:00 ESTStaff Discussionhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40477http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40412This paper does two things. First, it articulates what are the main implications of theoretical and empirical research for design of labor market policies and labor market institutions. Second, in this light, the paper analyzes the IMF’s labor market recommendations since the beginning of the crisis, both in general, and more specifically in program countries29 Mar 2013 09:00:00 ESTStaff Discussionhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40412http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40317The SDN elaborates the case for, and the design of, a banking union for the euro area. It discusses the benefits and costs of a banking union, presents a steady state view of the banking union, elaborates difficult transition issues, and briefly discusses broader EU issues. As such, it assesses current plans and provides advice. It is accompanied by three background technical notes that analyze in depth the various elements of the banking union: a single supervisory framework; a single resolution and common safety net; and urgent issues related to repair of weak banks in Europe.12 Feb 2013 09:00:00 ESTStaff Discussionhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40317http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40273Many developing and emerging countries do not fully pass-through increases in international fuel prices to domestic retail prices, with adverse consequences for fuel tax revenues and tax volatility. The adoption of an automatic fuel pricing mechanism can help to address this problem, and the incorporation of a price smoothing mechanism can ensure pass-through over the medium term but also avoid sharp increases (and decreases) in domestic prices. This technical note addresses the following issues: (i) the design of an automatic fuel pricing mechanism; (ii) the incorporation of domestic price smoothing and resulting tradeoffs; (iii) the transition from ad hoc pricing adjustments to an automatic mechanism; and (iv) policies to support this transition and the maintenance of an automatic mechanism. A standardized template for simulating and evaluating the implications of alternative pricing mechanisms for price and fiscal volatility is available on request.24 Jan 2013 09:00:00 ESTTechnical Noteshttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40273http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40111This technical note and manual (TNM) addresses the following main issues: •Interaction between treasury cash management and monetary policy operations within the wider context of the respective economic responsibilities of the ministry of finance and the central bank. •Institutional arrangements for an effective relationship between the treasury and the central bank. •Contractual arrangements between the treasury and the central bank for the provision of banking and other services. This document will be particularly relevant to developing countries that are reforming cash management operations or contemplating more active cash management; or where there are operational policy differences between the treasury and the central bank.16 Jan 2013 09:00:00 ESTTechnical Noteshttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40111http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40166Limited diversification is an underlying characteristic of many low-income countries (LICs). Concentration in sectors with limited scope for increases in productivity and quality may result in less broad-based and sustainable growth. Moreover, lack of diversification may increase exposure to adverse external shocks and macroeconomic instability. The SDN will have three objectives. First, to review and extend the evidence, from the existing literature and ongoing IMF work, that points to diversification as a crucial aspect of the development process. A major focus will be on cross-country and cross-regional differences in the pace of diversification. Second, to draw lessons from the experiences of those countries that have successfully diversified their economies. Third, to analyze the relationship between diversification, growth, and volatility.14 Dec 2012 09:00:00 ESTStaff Discussionhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40166http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40132This note outlines the basic economics of the shadow banking system, highlights (systemic) risks related to it, and suggests implications for measurement and regulatory approaches.04 Dec 2012 09:00:00 ESTStaff Discussionhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40132http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25847With growth weakening in many parts of the world and downside risks on the rise, fiscal consolidation remains challenging. However, considerable progress has been made in strengthening fiscal accounts following their sharp deterioration in 2008-09. This issue of the Fiscal Monitor takes stock of this progress, focusing on its size, composition, and implications for employment and social equity. The issue finds that most countries--and especially advanced economies--have made significant headway in rolling back fiscal deficits, but that efforts at controlling debt stocks are taking longer to yield results. The mix of revenue and expenditure policies employed by countries with sizable fiscal consolidation needs has differed, with advanced economies in general relying more on spending retrenchment than emerging markets and low-income countries. Both spending and revenue measures have important implications for employment and social equity, the issue finds, and these implications need to be taken into account if the large consolidation efforts underway are to be sustainable.08 Oct 2012 09:00:00 ESTFiscal Monitorhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25847http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40016This note is a reference guide for the unemployment template, an econometric tool that allows researchers to analyze and project labor market indicators for any country with sufficient data coverage. Section I explains the motivation behind designing a new surveillance tool to study labor markets, and summarizes the key features of the template. Section II details the data inputs needed and their sources. Section III describes the methods used to estimate the employment-growth elasticity, a measure of the extent to which employment responds to output. Section IV outlines the medium-term outlook table and projection charts created by the template once the inputs are customized to generate an appropriate elasticity. Finally, Section V presents a discussion on how to interpret the results produced by the template, and of the issues that arise from projecting labor market indicators.27 Sep 2012 09:00:00 ESTTechnical Noteshttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40016http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40024 Income inequality has increased in most advanced and many developing economies over recent decades, reflecting a range of factors including globalization and technological change. Even more striking is the large variation in average disposable (post-tax-and-transfer) income inequality across regions, much of which can be accounted for by differences in the level and progressivity of tax and spending policies. In advanced economies, fiscal policy has played a significant role in reducing income inequality, especially on the expenditure side but also through progressive income taxation. However, reforms since the mid-1990s have lessened the generosity of social benefits and the progressivity of income tax systems in these economies making fiscal policy less redistributive. This is a revised version of SDN/12/08 (published on June 28, 2012), which incorporates updated data on international Gini coefficients. Figure 1, Table 1, and Appendix Table 1 have been updated to include the new data. 27 Sep 2012 09:00:00 ESTStaff Discussionhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40024http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=26231To assess the overall impact of the financial regulatory initiatives on U.S., European, and Japanese financial institutions and their respective economies. It will examine the existing analyses on the impact of the regulatory initiatives by the financial industry (financial analysts, industry associations, and consulting companies) and the official sector and supplements them with Basel III disclosures by financial institutions to estimate the overall impact of the regulatory reforms and reach some overall conclusions. The assessment takes into account how financial institutions respond to the combined effects of the regulatory measures by adapting their business models to a new set of capital regulations, shrinking their balance sheet, changing its structure (funding and asset composition) , cutting costs, and charging more for loans. Indeed, one of the most important conclusions is that any increase in lending rates will be minor.11 Sep 2012 09:00:00 ESTStaff Discussionhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=26231http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=26231To assess the overall impact of the financial regulatory initiatives on U.S., European, and Japanese financial institutions and their respective economies. It will examine the existing analyses on the impact of the regulatory initiatives by the financial industry (financial analysts, industry associations, and consulting companies) and the official sector and supplements them with Basel III disclosures by financial institutions to estimate the overall impact of the regulatory reforms and reach some overall conclusions. The assessment takes into account how financial institutions respond to the combined effects of the regulatory measures by adapting their business models to a new set of capital regulations, shrinking their balance sheet, changing its structure (funding and asset composition) , cutting costs, and charging more for loans. Indeed, one of the most important conclusions is that any increase in lending rates will be minor.11 Sep 2012 09:00:00 ESTStaff Discussionhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=26231http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=26239The financial crisis has again brought home the profound financial linkages across countries, often manifest in highly volatile capital flows. This volatility has prompted interest in possible rules of the road to guide policies in both source and recipient countries. This note discusses the analytical underpinnings, and possible contours, of such rules. While a series of discussion notes have investigated how an individual country might respond to surging inflows, less attention has been paid to the multilateral consequences of country policies, and the desirability of international cooperation to achieve globally efficient outcomes. We argue that the global welfare implications of capital account regulations, or policies that mimic the effects of such regulations, are threefold. First, spillovers from such policies do not necessarily have normative implications: if policies are justified from a national standpoint (in terms of reducing domestic distortions), under a range of conditions they should be pursued even if they give rise to cross-border spillovers. Second, however, if policies in one country exacerbate existing distortions in other countries, and it is costly for other countries to respond, then multilateral restrictions on unilateral policies are likely to be beneficial. Third, coordination may require borrowers to reduce inflow controls or, much thornier, agreement by source countries to partially internalize risks from excessively large or risky outflows. While it is very difficult to fully spell out desirable rules of the road in practice, multilateral oversight should carefully consider situations where capital account regulations seem unjustified from a prudential standpoint and seem instead geared toward vitiating external adjustment—e.g., when inflow controls are used to sustain an undervalued currency. Oversight might also raise red flags in situations where policies are excessively deflecting flows across recipient countries or transmitting risk from source to recipient countries. The discussion note fleshes out the analytical considerations behind such rules.07 Sep 2012 09:00:00 ESTStaff Discussionhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=26239http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25346Barring the realization of downside risks to the global economy, growth in the Asia and the Pacific region is expected to gain momentum over the course of 2012, according to this report, and now projected at 6 percent in 2012, rising to about 6½ percent in 2013. Stronger economic and policy fundamentals have helped buffer the region's economies against the global financial crisis, by limiting adverse financial market spillovers and ameliorating the impact of deleveraging by European banks, but a sharp fall in exports to advanced economies and a reversal of foreign capital flows would have a severe impact on the region. The region's policymakers now face the difficult task of calibrating the amount of insurance needed to support stable, noninflationary growth. Some Asian and Pacific economies can afford to lengthen the pause in the normalization of their macroeconomic policies that was initiated when the global recovery stalled late in 2011; others may need a faster return to more neutral policy stances. Similarly, the pace of fiscal consolidation should be calibrated to country-specific circumstances. Additional chapters in the report discuss whether China is rebalancing and the particular challenges facing Asian low-income and small island economies.27 Apr 2012 09:00:00 ESTRegional Economichttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25346http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25344Overall, fiscal risks remain elevated, according to this issue, although there are signs that in some key respects they are less acute than six months ago. Past efforts with fiscal consolidation are beginning to bear fruit, particularly when buttressed by credible institutional commitments. Nevertheless, debt ratios in many advanced economies are at historical levels and rising, borrowing requirements remain very large, financial markets continue to be in a state of alert, and downside risks to the global economy predominate. In this uncertain environment, the challenge for fiscal policy is to find the right balance between exploiting short-term space to support the fragile recovery and rebuilding longer-term space by advancing fiscal consolidation. Against that background, this issue examines in more detail the concept of fiscal space, or the scope that policymakers have to calibrate the pace of fiscal adjustment without undermining fiscal sustainability. A number of conclusions emerge in regard to countries' ongoing vulnerability to unexpected shocks, the potential for substantial negative impacts of fiscal adjustment on activity, possible overstatements of short-term pressures on the public finances in some countries as general government gross debt ratios have risen, the implications of countries having flexibility in the short term but not the longer term, and the monitoring and enforcement challenges raised by second-generation fiscal rules.20 Apr 2012 09:00:00 ESTFiscal Monitorhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25344http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25343The April 2012 Global Financial Stability Report assesses changes in risks to financial stability over the past six months, focusing on sovereign vulnerabilities, risks stemming from private sector deleveraging, and assessing the continued resilience of emerging markets. The report probes the implications of recent reforms in the financial system for market perception of safe assets, and investigates the growing public and private costs of increased longevity risk from aging populations.18 Apr 2012 09:00:00 ESTGlobal Financialshttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25343http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25298This technical note and manual addresses the following main issues: 1. What is operational risk management and how this should be applied to treasury operations. 2. What is business continuity and disaster recovery planning and why it is important for treasury operations? 3. How to develop and implement a business continuity and disaster recovery plan using a six practical-step process and how to have it imbedded into the day-to-day operations of the treasury. 4. What is needed to activate and what are the key procedures when activating the disaster recovery plan. 09 Nov 2011 09:00:00 ESTTechnical Noteshttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25298http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24751The Arab Spring holds the promise of improved living standards and a more prosperous future for the peoples of the Middle East and North Africa region. At the same time, the region is witnessing uncertainty and economic pressures from domestic and external sources, which will likely be exacerbated by the recent worsening of the global economy. The main challenge in the short term will be to manage expectations while maintaining economic stability. To that end, better-targeted subsidies and transfers will help free up resources for investment in infrastructure, education, and health. Policies aimed at fostering inclusive growth will also help cement the longer-term benefits of the ongoing changes in the region. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, the economic outlook is broadly positive. Exports and remittances--key growth drivers in 2010--are continuing to grow solidly, helping the recovery gain firm momentum. At the same time, uncertainties over the robustness of the global recovery constitute a downside risk to the growth outlook. Key challenges facing the region over the medium term are to create jobs and foster high and inclusive growth.26 Oct 2011 09:00:00 ESTRegional Economichttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24751http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24747This year looks set to be another encouraging one for most sub-Saharan African economies. Reflecting mainly strong demand but also elevated commodity prices, the region's economy is set to expand by more than 5¼ percent in 2011. For 2012, the IMF staff's baseline projection is for growth to be higher at 5¾ percent, owing to one-off boosts to production in a number of countries. There are, however, specters at the feast: the increase in global food and fuel prices, amplified by drought affecting parts of the region, has hit the budgets of the poor and sparked rising inflation, and hesitations in the global recovery threaten to weaken export and growth prospects. The projection for 2012 for the region is highly contingent on global economic growth being sustained at about 4 percent. A further slowing of growth in advanced economies, curtailing global demand, would generate significant headwinds for the region's ongoing expansion, with more globally integrated countries likely to be most affected. Policies in the coming months need to tread a fine line between addressing the challenges that strong growth and recent exogenous shocks have engendered and warding off the adverse effects of another global downturn. In some slower-growing, mostly middle-income countries without binding financial constraints, policies should clearly remain supportive of output growth, even more so if global growth sputters. Provided the global economy experiences the currently predicted slow and steady growth, most of the region's low-income countries should focus squarely on medium-term considerations in setting fiscal policy while tightening monetary policy wherever nonfood inflation has climbed above single digits. In the event of a global downturn, subject to financing constraints, policies in these countries should focus on maintaining planned spending initiatives, while allowing automatic stabilizers to operate on the revenue side. For the region's oil exporters, better terms of trade provide a good opportunity to build up policy buffers against further price volatility. 26 Oct 2011 09:00:00 ESTRegional Economichttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24747http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25189This technical note and manual (TNM) addresses the following main issues: • Discusses the purpose of a chart of accounts and its importance in public financial management • Discusses stakeholder needs in a typical public financial management framework that need to be reflected in a chart of accounts • Discusses the role of chart of accounts in budgetary and financial accounting • Discusses the relation between the chart of accounts and IFMIS • Explains key steps for identifying data requirements and structures for developing a chart of accounts17 Oct 2011 09:00:00 ESTTechnical Noteshttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25189http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25189This technical note and manual (TNM) addresses the following main issues: • Discusses the purpose of a chart of accounts and its importance in public financial management • Discusses stakeholder needs in a typical public financial management framework that need to be reflected in a chart of accounts • Discusses the role of chart of accounts in budgetary and financial accounting • Discusses the relation between the chart of accounts and IFMIS • Explains key steps for identifying data requirements and structures for developing a chart of accounts17 Oct 2011 09:00:00 ESTTechnical Noteshttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25189http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25188This technical note and manual addresses the following main issues: 1. Discusses the problems of fragmented government banking arrangements and how a treasury single account (TSA) could address them. 2. Explains the concept of a TSA and describes its features. 3. Discusses the design issues that need to be considered in setting up a TSA system. 4. Discusses the preconditions and key sequencing and implementation issues that need to be addressed in establishing a TSA. 17 Oct 2011 09:00:00 ESTTechnical Noteshttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25188http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24749In line with the weaker global outlook, growth in Asia is expected to be slightly lower in 2011-12 than forecast in April 2011, mainly as a result of weakening external demand, but the expansion should remain healthy, supported by domestic demand, which has been generally resilient. Overheating pressures remain elevated in a number of economies, with credit growth still robust and inflation momentum generally high, though inflation is expected to recede modestly after peaking in 2011. The sell-off in Asian financial markets in August and September 2011 underscores that an escalation of euro area financial turbulence and a renewed slowdown in the United States could have severe macroeconomic and financial spillovers to Asia. Against this backdrop, Asian low-income and Pacific Island economies face particular challenges in the near and medium term. In low-income countries, the fight against inflation is complicated by strong second-round effects, the need to phase out subsidies, and less well-anchored inflation expectations. Pacific Island economies need to undertake further structural reforms to lift potential growth. The downside risks to growth amid persistent overheating pressures present Asian policymakers with a delicate balancing act, as they need to guard against risks to growth but also limit the adverse impact of prolonged easy financial conditions on inflation and balance sheet vulnerabilities. At the same time, the weakness in global demand only confirms that Asia would greatly benefit from further progress in rebalancing growth by developing domestic sources of demand. In addition to structural reforms, this would require a reprioritization of fiscal spending, in order to create fiscal space for critical infrastructure investment and social priority expenditure.07 Oct 2011 09:00:00 ESTRegional Economichttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24749http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24750Following a strong showing in early 2011, the economies across Europe now face the prospect of a pronounced slowdown, as global growth has softened, risk aversion has risen, and strains in Europe's sovereign debt and financial markets have deepened, according to this issue of the Regional Economic Outlook for Europe. Downside risks are significant, and a further deepening of the euro area crisis would affect not only advanced Europe, but also emerging Europe, given its tight economic and financial ties. The policy stance in advanced Europe will need to be adapted to reflect the weakening and tense outlook, financial systems strengthened further, and a consistent, cohesive and cooperative approach to monetary union adopted by all euro area stakeholders. The cross-country experience in the past decade in Europe shows the difference that good policies can make in boosting growth, with some European countries having grown rapidly while others have stagnated. Escaping low-growth traps, through broad-based reforms that address macroeconomic imbalances and country-specific structural rigidities, is possible.05 Oct 2011 09:00:00 ESTRegional Economichttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24750http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25136Despite progress in addressing key fiscal weaknesses in many countries, significant policy challenges remain in advanced, emerging, and low-income economies, and must be faced in an environment where downside risks to growth have increased. Many advanced economies face very large adjustment needs to reduce risks related to high debt ratios. The appropriate pace of adjustment in the short run will depend, for each country, on the intensity of the market pressure it confronts, the magnitude of the risks to growth it faces, and the credibility of its medium-term program. The euro area needs to sustain fiscal consolidation, minimize its growth fallout, and address concerns about the adequacy of crisis resolution mechanisms. In Japan and the United States, sufficiently detailed and ambitious plans to reduce deficits and debts are needed to prevent credibility from weakening. Meanwhile, many emerging economies need to make faster progress in strengthening fiscal fundamentals before cyclical factors or spillovers from advanced economies turn against them. Low-income countries also need to rebuild fiscal buffers, while addressing spending needs.23 Sep 2011 09:00:00 ESTFiscal Monitorhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25136http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24745The September 2011 Global Financial Stability Report cautions that the risks to global financial stability have increased substantially in recent months, during which heavy public debt burdens and weak growth prospects in many advanced economies combined with a series of shocks to the global financial system. Emerging markets, despite brighter growth prospects, face the risk of sharp reversals and so must guard against the buildup of financial vulnerabilities. Moreover, as the crisis has moved into its fifth year, it has entered a new phase in which political differences within and across economies are impeding progress to address the legacies of the crisis. The Report examines how the ongoing low interest rate environment and high uncertainty are driving the asset allocations of long-term, real-money institutional investors. The Report also looks at variables that can act as advance indicators of financial crisis and examines how the use of countercyclical capital buffers can help to dampen destabilizing cycles.21 Sep 2011 09:00:00 ESTGlobal Financialshttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24745http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24738The September 2011 edition of the World Economic Outlook assesses the prospects for the global economy, which is now in a dangerous new phase. Global activity has weakened and become more uneven, confidence has fallen sharply recently, and downside risks are growing. Against a backdrop of unresolved structural fragilities, a barrage of shocks hit the international economy this year, including the devastating Japanese earthquake and tsunami, unrest in some oil-producing countries, and the major financial turbulence in the euro area. Two of the forces now shaping the global economy are high and rising commodity prices and the need for many economies to address large budget deficits. Chapter 3 examines the inflationary effects of commodity price movements and the appropriate monetary policy response. Chapter 4 explores the implications of efforts by advanced economies to restore fiscal sustainability and by emerging and developing economies to tighten fiscal policy to rebuild fiscal policy room and in some cases to restrain overheating pressures.20 Sep 2011 09:00:00 ESTWorld Economichttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24738http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24329The IMF's Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere provides in-depth coverage of recent economic developments in the region, and country-specific analyses of risks from inflation, economic overheating, rising commodity prices, and rapid credit growth, as well as prospects for the private sector, trade, and public spending.03 May 2011 09:00:00 ESTRegional Economichttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24329http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24325Sub-Saharan Africa's economic recovery is well under way, although among country groups there is variation in the speed of the recovery. In most of the region's low-income countries and among the seven oil exporters growth is almost back to precrisis levels. However, in the region's middle-income countries, including South Africa, the recovery has been more gradual. This Regional Economic Outlook describes the impact of recent economic developments---sharp increases in food and fuel prices will need fiscal interventions targeting the poor, while higher oil prices will be a boon to some countries and adversely affect others. Policy adjustments are needed to move away from the supportive stance of the last few years but should be balanced against the need to alleviate the impact of rising food prices on poor households.03 May 2011 09:00:00 ESTRegional Economichttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24325http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24326The April 2011 issue of the Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific focuses on the policy challenges of managing the next phase of growth after Asia's recovery from the global crisis. The analytical chapters discuss how capital flows to the region may affect the monetary policy transmission mechanism and the role of macroprudential measures in this context, the implications of the Asian supply chain for rebalancing growth across the region, and the policy challenges for Asian low-income and Pacific Island countries. Economic recovery in Asia as a whole has been rapid (8.3 percent in 2010) and fueled by both exports and domestic demand. Looking ahead, growth is expected to continue at a more moderate but also more sustainable pace in 2011 and 2012, led by China and India. Meanwhile, new risks to the outlook have emerged. The full human cost and impact on infrastructure of the mid-March earthquake and tsunami in Japan remain to be determined. The steady response of the Japanese government and people has helped to contain the effects of the disaster on production, but a risk remains of prolonged disruptions in production that could spill over to other Asian economies in the regional supply chain. Moreover, tensions in the Middle East and North Africa and related risk of further oil price spikes could disrupt global growth and affect Asian exports. Finally, pockets of overheating have emerged in Asia, as core inflation and credit growth have accelerated in several Asian economies. The need to tighten macroeconomic policy stances has become more pressing than it was six months ago.28 Apr 2011 09:00:00 ESTRegional Economichttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24326http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24328This issue of the Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia provides an in-depth look at the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) region, as well as the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA). Four chapters deal with MENAP oil exporters, MENAP oil importers, policy challenges facing MENAP, and sustaining the recovery in the CCA countries. Two developments mark the outlook for the MENAP region: the social and political unrest and the surge in global fuel and food prices, which have resulted in unusually large uncertainties in the near-term economic outlook. Meanwhile, growth in the CCA countries was higher than expected. Three main policy challenges to CCA countries are rising inflation, heightened social pressures to spend, and the poor quality of bank portfolios. Job creation and poverty reduction are key objectives for all CCA countries.27 Apr 2011 09:00:00 ESTRegional Economichttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24328http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24324Despite ongoing economic recovery and improvements in global financial stability, structural weaknesses and vulnerabilities remain in some important financial systems. The April 2011 Global Financial Stability Report highlights how risks have changed over the past six months, traces the sources and channels of financial distress with an emphasis on sovereign risk, notes the pressures arising from capital inflows in emerging economies, and discusses policy proposals under consideration to mend the global financial system.13 Apr 2011 09:00:00 ESTGlobal Financialshttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24324http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24330With increasing fiscal challenges in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, multilateral surveillance of fiscal developments, a key part of the IMF's surveillance responsibilities, has gained further importance. In response, the Fiscal Monitor was launched in 2009 to survey and analyze the latest public finance developments, update fiscal implications of the crisis and medium-term fiscal projections, and assess policies to put public finances on a sustainable footing. The Fiscal Monitor is prepared twice a year by the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department. Its projections are based on the same database used for the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO) and Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR).12 Apr 2011 09:00:00 ESTFiscal Monitorhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24330http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24330With increasing fiscal challenges in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, multilateral surveillance of fiscal developments, a key part of the IMF's surveillance responsibilities, has gained further importance. In response, the Fiscal Monitor was launched in 2009 to survey and analyze the latest public finance developments, update fiscal implications of the crisis and medium-term fiscal projections, and assess policies to put public finances on a sustainable footing. The Fiscal Monitor is prepared twice a year by the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department. Its projections are based on the same database used for the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO) and Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR).12 Apr 2011 09:00:00 ESTFiscal Monitorhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24330http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24787Technical Notes and Manuals No. 11/0211 Apr 2011 09:00:00 ESTTechnical Noteshttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24787http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24653Technical Notes and Manuals No. 11/0111 Apr 2011 09:00:00 ESTTechnical Noteshttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24653http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23407The member countries of the International Monetary Fund collaborate to try to assure orderly exchange arrangements and promote a stable system of exchange rates, recognizing that the essential purpose of the international monetary system is to facilitate the exchange of goods, services, and capital, and to sustain sound economic growth. The paper reviews the stability of the overall system of exchange rates by examining macroeconomic performance (inflation, growth, crises) under alternative exchange rate regimes; implications of exchange rate regime choice for interaction with the rest of the system (external adjustment, trade integration, capital flows); and potential sources of stress to the international monetary system.15 Mar 2011 09:00:00 ESTOccasional Paperhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23407http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24244Assessments of exchange rate misalignments and external imbalances for low-income countries are challenging because methodologies developed for advanced and emerging economies cannot be automatically applied to poorer nations. This paper uses a large database, unique in the set of indicators and number of countries it covers, to estimate the relationship in low-income countries between a set of fundamentals in the medium to long term and the real effective exchange rate, the current account, and the net external assets position.15 Mar 2011 09:00:00 ESTOccasional Paperhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24244http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24341To live up to its growth potential and secure its inclusive social model, the euro area must make better use of its available labor. In the aftermath of the crisis, boosting growth is essential to prevent unemployment from becoming a long-term problem and to facilitate the return to fiscal sustainability. Labor utilization in the euro area has been lagging considerably behind its best performing peers. While fewer hours worked may, to some extent, reflect a social choice, higher unemployment rates and lower participation rates, on the other hand, cannot easily be attributed to individual preferences. Here, policies and institutions matter more. And there is little excuse for relatively low labor productivity, a particular bane in southern Europe and an increasing challenge everywhere. Kick-starting growth requires a comprehensive approach to labor and service market reforms. Different circumstances call for different approaches across countries. Countries in southern Europe need to focus on regaining competitiveness, while some in the core should promote higher labor force participation or more open service sector markets. Improving access to the labor market should be high on the priority list everywhere—including through some harmonization of key features of the labor market, which will help deal with intra-euro area imbalances. Differences in labor taxation, unemployment benefit systems, and employment protection will need to be reduced. Improving regulation and reforming taxes and social benefits will be essential to make inroads. For the longer term, focus should be on innovation, education, and on continuing financial sector reforms.22 Nov 2010 09:00:00 ESTStaff Positionhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24341http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24341To live up to its growth potential and secure its inclusive social model, the euro area must make better use of its available labor. In the aftermath of the crisis, boosting growth is essential to prevent unemployment from becoming a long-term problem and to facilitate the return to fiscal sustainability. Labor utilization in the euro area has been lagging considerably behind its best performing peers. While fewer hours worked may, to some extent, reflect a social choice, higher unemployment rates and lower participation rates, on the other hand, cannot easily be attributed to individual preferences. Here, policies and institutions matter more. And there is little excuse for relatively low labor productivity, a particular bane in southern Europe and an increasing challenge everywhere. Kick-starting growth requires a comprehensive approach to labor and service market reforms. Different circumstances call for different approaches across countries. Countries in southern Europe need to focus on regaining competitiveness, while some in the core should promote higher labor force participation or more open service sector markets. Improving access to the labor market should be high on the priority list everywhere—including through some harmonization of key features of the labor market, which will help deal with intra-euro area imbalances. Differences in labor taxation, unemployment benefit systems, and employment protection will need to be reduced. Improving regulation and reforming taxes and social benefits will be essential to make inroads. For the longer term, focus should be on innovation, education, and on continuing financial sector reforms.22 Nov 2010 09:00:00 ESTStaff Positionhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24341http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24270The human cost of the recent global crisis is reflected in its impact on the labor market. Explaining why economies with similar downturns had very different employment trends can help design policies to reduce such costs and improve labor markets. This paper analyzes the recent employment experiences of six economies: Germany, Korea, Mexico, New Zealand, Spain, and Sweden. These economies represent a wide range of labor market institutions, policy responses, and outcomes to the crisis. The divergence of labor market outcomes and of the effectiveness of policies during the crisis can be explained by the interaction between the nature of the shocks and differences in the structure and institutions of each country’s economy. The worst job losses compared to the drop in output followed permanent shocks, particularly in dual labor markets and in the presence of wage rigidities. Policies to avoid job cuts were much more effective when they were well-targeted and responded to temporary shocks. In contrast, policies to facilitate labor movements were more appropriate following permanent shocks.11 Nov 2010 09:00:00 ESTStaff Positionhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24270http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24270The human cost of the recent global crisis is reflected in its impact on the labor market. Explaining why economies with similar downturns had very different employment trends can help design policies to reduce such costs and improve labor markets. This paper analyzes the recent employment experiences of six economies: Germany, Korea, Mexico, New Zealand, Spain, and Sweden. These economies represent a wide range of labor market institutions, policy responses, and outcomes to the crisis. The divergence of labor market outcomes and of the effectiveness of policies during the crisis can be explained by the interaction between the nature of the shocks and differences in the structure and institutions of each country’s economy. The worst job losses compared to the drop in output followed permanent shocks, particularly in dual labor markets and in the presence of wage rigidities. Policies to avoid job cuts were much more effective when they were well-targeted and responded to temporary shocks. In contrast, policies to facilitate labor movements were more appropriate following permanent shocks.11 Nov 2010 09:00:00 ESTStaff Positionhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24270http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24221Recessions leave scars on the labor market. Over 200 million people across the globe are estimated to be unemployed at present resulting from the Great Recession of 2007–09. We assess the human cost of increased unemployment by surveying what is known about the effects of past recessions. If past is prologue, the cost to the unemployed (and society) could be high. The focus of this paper is on advanced economies. To their credit, most countries mounted strong policy responses to minimize the human costs, and the policy actions were notable also for their consistency and coherence across countries.11 Nov 2010 09:00:00 ESTStaff Positionhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24221http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24221Recessions leave scars on the labor market. Over 200 million people across the globe are estimated to be unemployed at present resulting from the Great Recession of 2007–09. We assess the human cost of increased unemployment by surveying what is known about the effects of past recessions. If past is prologue, the cost to the unemployed (and society) could be high. The focus of this paper is on advanced economies. To their credit, most countries mounted strong policy responses to minimize the human costs, and the policy actions were notable also for their consistency and coherence across countries.11 Nov 2010 09:00:00 ESTStaff Positionhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24221http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24220With increasing fiscal challenges in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, multilateral surveillance of fiscal developments, a key part of the IMF's surveillance responsibilities, has gained further importance. In response, the Fiscal Monitor was launched in 2009 to survey and analyze the latest public finance developments, update fiscal implications of the crisis and medium-term fiscal projections, and assess policies to put public finances on a sustainable footing. The Fiscal Monitor is prepared twice a year by the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department. The Monitor's projections are based on the same database used for the October 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO) and Global Financial Stability Report.04 Nov 2010 09:00:00 ESTFiscal Monitorhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24220http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24314Financial sector reforms are being considered to address the risks posed by large and complex financial institutions (LCFIs). The vast majority of global finance is intermediated by a handful of these institutions with growing interconnections within and across borders. Common trends that contributed to the recent global crisis included sharp increases in leverage, significant reliance on short-term wholesale funding, growth of off-balance-sheet activities, maturity mismatches, and increased share of revenues from complex products and trading activities. The key objective of the financial sector reforms is to promote a less leveraged, less risky (or better cushioned), and thus a more resilient financial system that supports strong and sustainable economic growth. The recent proposals of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) on capital standards represent a substantial improvement in the quantity and quality of capital in comparison with the pre-crisis situation. The analysis of this paper suggests that, subject to usual caveats associated with limited data disclosures and availability, phase-in arrangements will allow most banks to move to these higher standards through earnings retention, assuming a modest economic and earnings outlook. It also suggests that should banks generate strong earnings in the coming years, and distribute lower dividends, they could rebuild common equity capital ratios faster than required under the current phase-in periods. The analysis of the paper also suggests that the new capital standards will have a significant impact on investment-banking-type activities, including through tighter requirements for trading book exposures. Investment banking activities will also be affected by a host of other regulatory initiatives, including the new accounting rules and higher standards for securitization, derivatives, and trading businesses, as well as measures to restrain certain activities. Yet, LCFIs with an investment banking focus have flexible business models and can adjust their strategies easily to mitigate the effects of the regulatory reforms, notwithstanding a multitude of regulations affecting their activities. The ultimate effect of the reforms on business models remains to be seen until the regulations take their final shape.03 Nov 2010 09:00:00 ESTStaff Positionhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24314http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24314Financial sector reforms are being considered to address the risks posed by large and complex financial institutions (LCFIs). The vast majority of global finance is intermediated by a handful of these institutions with growing interconnections within and across borders. Common trends that contributed to the recent global crisis included sharp increases in leverage, significant reliance on short-term wholesale funding, growth of off-balance-sheet activities, maturity mismatches, and increased share of revenues from complex products and trading activities. The key objective of the financial sector reforms is to promote a less leveraged, less risky (or better cushioned), and thus a more resilient financial system that supports strong and sustainable economic growth. The recent proposals of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) on capital standards represent a substantial improvement in the quantity and quality of capital in comparison with the pre-crisis situation. The analysis of this paper suggests that, subject to usual caveats associated with limited data disclosures and availability, phase-in arrangements will allow most banks to move to these higher standards through earnings retention, assuming a modest economic and earnings outlook. It also suggests that should banks generate strong earnings in the coming years, and distribute lower dividends, they could rebuild common equity capital ratios faster than required under the current phase-in periods. The analysis of the paper also suggests that the new capital standards will have a significant impact on investment-banking-type activities, including through tighter requirements for trading book exposures. Investment banking activities will also be affected by a host of other regulatory initiatives, including the new accounting rules and higher standards for securitization, derivatives, and trading businesses, as well as measures to restrain certain activities. Yet, LCFIs with an investment banking focus have flexible business models and can adjust their strategies easily to mitigate the effects of the regulatory reforms, notwithstanding a multitude of regulations affecting their activities. The ultimate effect of the reforms on business models remains to be seen until the regulations take their final shape.03 Nov 2010 09:00:00 ESTStaff Positionhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24314http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23543The global financial system is still in a period of significant uncertainty. Although the ongoing recovery is expected to gradual strengthen balance sheets, progress toward stability has experienced a setback since the April 2010 GFSR. As discussed in this October 2010 report, policymakers in many advanced countries need to confront the interactions created by slow growth, rising sovereign indebtedness, and still fragile financial institutions by addressing legacy problems in the banking system, strengthening the fundamentals of sovereign and bank balance sheets, and clarifying regulatory reforms.29 Oct 2010 09:00:00 ESTGlobal Financialshttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23543http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23548"Heating Up in the South, Cooler in the North" broadly describes the economic scene for the Western Hemisphere. The report emphasizes how a mixed environment--with slow recovery in the United States and other advanced economies, but strength in Asia--differently shapes the outlooks for the diverse economies of Latin America and the Caribbean. This issue also focuses on financial issues in Latin America, with a chapter on the challenges of allowing credit to expand safely, without creating excessive risks, and a chapter that looks at macroprudential financial policies--topics especially important in today's context of low global interest rates and capital flows to emerging economies. The final chapter turns to Caribbean economies, exploring the drivers, and obstacles, that affect their growth.19 Oct 2010 09:00:00 ESTRegional Economichttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23548http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23731The question of what makes fiscal decentralization work is faced by many policymakers around the world. This book draws on both the relevant literature and policy and technical advice provided by the IMF to a wide range of member countries, and discusses the key factors that help make decentralization sustainable, efficient, and equitable from a macroeconomic perspective. It focuses on institutional reforms (in the revenue and expenditure assignments to different levels of government, the design of intergovernmental transfers, and public financial management systems) that are suited to different countries' circumstances, and their appropriate sequencing.06 Oct 2010 09:00:00 ESTOccasional Paperhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23731http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23542The recovery from the Great Recession is proceeding broadly as expected, but most advanced economies and a few emerging economies still face large adjustments, are recovering only sluggishly, and have continued high unemployment. By contrast, many emerging and developing economies are again seeing strong growth. A sustained, healthy global recovery rests on two rebalancing acts: internal rebalancing, with a strengthening of private demand in advanced economies, allowing for fiscal consolidation; and external rebalancing, with an increase in net exports in deficit countries and a decrease in net exports in surplus countries, notably emerging Asia. This edition of the World Economic Outlook examines the interactions between these two rebalancing acts and explores the policies required to support them. One of the two analytical chapters examines the effects on output and employment of fiscal consolidation in advanced economies using detailed budget data, and the other examines the collapse and recovery of trade in economies that have experienced crises.06 Oct 2010 09:00:00 ESTWorld Economichttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23542http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24204Three years after the onset of the global financial crisis, much has been done to reform the global financial system, but there is much left to accomplish. The regulatory reform agenda agreed by G-20 leaders in 2009 has elevated the discussions to the highest policy level and kept international attention focused on establishing a globally consistent set of rules. Comprehensive reform, once agreed and implemented in full, will have far-reaching implications for the global financial system and the performance of the world economy. In designing the reforms, it is imperative that policymakers keep their focus on the overarching objective of creating a financial system that provides a solid foundation for strong and sustainable economic growth. This paper argues that the current reforms are moving in the right direction, but many policy choices lie ahead—nationally and internationally?which are both urgent and challenging. Policies need to address not only the risks posed by individual banks but also, importantly, those posed by nonbanks and the system as a whole. The recent proposals of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) represent a substantial improvement in the quality and quantity of bank capital, but these apply only to a subset of the financial system.01 Oct 2010 09:00:00 ESTStaff Positionhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24204http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24204Three years after the onset of the global financial crisis, much has been done to reform the global financial system, but there is much left to accomplish. The regulatory reform agenda agreed by G-20 leaders in 2009 has elevated the discussions to the highest policy level and kept international attention focused on establishing a globally consistent set of rules. Comprehensive reform, once agreed and implemented in full, will have far-reaching implications for the global financial system and the performance of the world economy. In designing the reforms, it is imperative that policymakers keep their focus on the overarching objective of creating a financial system that provides a solid foundation for strong and sustainable economic growth. This paper argues that the current reforms are moving in the right direction, but many policy choices lie ahead—nationally and internationally?which are both urgent and challenging. Policies need to address not only the risks posed by individual banks but also, importantly, those posed by nonbanks and the system as a whole. The recent proposals of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) represent a substantial improvement in the quality and quantity of bank capital, but these apply only to a subset of the financial system.01 Oct 2010 09:00:00 ESTStaff Positionhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24204http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23343Risks to global financial stability have eased as the economic recovery has gained steam. But policies are needed to reduce sovereign vulnerabilities, ensure a smooth deleveraging process, and complete the regulatory agenda. The April 2010 Global Financial Stability Report examines systemic risk and the redesign of financial regulation; the role of central counterparties in making over-the-counter derivatives safer; and the effects of the expansion of global liquidity on receiving economies.20 May 2010 09:00:00 ESTGlobal Financialshttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23343http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23814With increasing fiscal challenges in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, multilateral surveillance of fiscal developments, a key part of the IMF's surveillance responsibilities, has gained further importance. In response, the Fiscal Monitor was launched in 2009 to survey and analyze the latest public finance developments, update fiscal implications of the crisis and medium-term fiscal projections, and assess policies to put public finances on a sustainable footing. Previous issues of the Monitor were published in the IMF's Staff Position Notes series, but starting with this issue, the Monitor will be a part of the IMF's World Economic and Financial Surveys series, to complement the overviews presented in the World Economic Outlook (WEO) and the Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR). The Fiscal Monitor is prepared twice a year by the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department. The Monitor's projections are based on the same database used for the April 2010 WEO and GFSR. The fiscal projections for individual countries have been prepared by IMF desk economists, and, in line with the WEO guidelines, assume that announced policies will be implemented.13 May 2010 09:00:00 ESTFiscal Monitorhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23814http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22479This paper explores the role of exchange rates in emerging economies with inflation-targeting regimes, an issue that has become especially germane during the current episode of financial turmoil and volatile capital flows. Under inflation targeting, the interest rate is the main monetary policy tool for influencing activity and inflation, and there is little agreement about the appropriate role of the exchange rate.The exchange rate is a more important monetary policy tool for emerging economies that have adopted inflation targeting than it is for inflation-targeting advanced economies. Inflation-targeting emerging economies generally have less flexible exchange rate arrangements and intervene more frequently in the foreign exchange market than their advanced economy counterparts. The enhanced role of the exchange rate reflects these economies' greater vulnerability to exchange rate shocks and their less developed financial markets. However, their sharper focus on the exchange rate may cause some confusion about the commitment of their central banks to achieve the inflation target and may also complicate policy implementation. Global inflation pressures, greater exchange rate volatility, and the financial stresses from the global financial turmoil that began in mid-2007 are heightening these tensions.24 Nov 2009 09:00:00 ESTOccasional Paperhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22479http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22584The October 2009 Global Financial Stability Report chronicles the evolution of the path toward reestablishing sound credit intermediation and the near-term risks that could interrupt its restoration, including the rising burden of sovereign financing. The report addresses how to restart securitization markets and the pitfalls if done improperly. The effectiveness of unconventional public sector interventions and the principles for disengagement are discussed. The report also discusses the design of medium-term policies that aim to reshape the financial system to make it more resilient and stable. 02 Nov 2009 09:00:00 ESTGlobal Financialshttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22584http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22594This volume examines the impact on economic performance of structural policies-policies that increase the role of market forces and competition in the economy, while maintaining appropriate regulatory frameworks. The results reflect a new dataset covering reforms of domestic product markets, international trade, the domestic financial sector, and the external capital account, in 91 developed and developing countries. Among the key results of this study, the authors find that real and financial reforms (and, in particular, domestic financial liberalization, trade liberalization, and agricultural liberalization) boost income growth. However, growth effects differ significantly across alternative reform sequencing strategies: a trade-before-capital-account strategy achieves better outcomes than the reverse, or even than a "big bang"; also, liberalizing the domestic financial sector together with the external capital account is growth-enhancing, provided the economy is relatively open to international trade. Finally, relatively liberalized domestic financial sectors enhance the economy's resilience, reducing output costs from adverse terms-of-trade and interest-rate shocks; increased credit availability is one of the key mechanisms.15 Oct 2009 09:00:00 ESTOccasional Paperhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22594http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22576This edition of the World Economic Outlook explores the prospects for growth in the aftermath of the financial crisis. The fragile nature of the recovery will present many challenges. These include the need for continued strong monetary, fiscal, and financial policies, ongoing efforts to restore the financial sector to health, improvements in private demand, and preparation of exit strategies on the fiscal, monetary, and financial fronts. The first of two analytical chapters included in this edition, "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: What Do We Learn from Booms and Busts?" explores whether there is a role for monetary policy in preventing asset price busts. The second, "Medium-Run Output Evolutions after Crises: A Historical Perspective," explores the effect of large economic shocks on output and its composition, including variations related to initial conditions, the type of shock, and economic policies.15 Oct 2009 09:00:00 ESTWorld Economichttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22576http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22848The economic and financial crisis is affecting the fiscal accounts of virtually every country. Public sector support for the financial system, fiscal stimulus and the automatic stabilizers, as well as the revenue decline from the downturn in commodity and asset prices, are leading to sharp increases in deficits and debt stocks around the world. Expansionary fiscal policy continues to be necessary in the short term to stimulate economic recovery. But it is now essential that governments reassess the state of their public finances in light of the global crisis and adopt strategies that will ensure medium- and long-term fiscal sustainability. Many of the advanced economies most affected by the crisis are also those where age-related spending will increase markedly in the coming years, adding particular urgency to the need to identify medium-term consolidation strategies. This new paper, which focuses mainly on advanced and emerging market economies, employs projections based on the April 2009 World Economic Outlook to quantify the fiscal implications of the crisis for a cross-section of countries. The authors assess the post-shock fiscal balances and debt outlook, and suggest ways for governments to clarify their strategies for maintaining fiscal solvency.18 Sep 2009 09:00:00 ESTOccasional Paperhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22848http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22575This edition of the World Economic Outlook explores how a dramatic escalation of the financial crisis in September 2008 provoked an unprecedented contraction of activity and trade, despite active policy responses. It presents economic projections for 2009 and 2010, and also looks beyond the current crisis, considering factors that will shape the landscape of the global economy over the medium term, as businesses and households seek to repair the damage. The analysis also outlines the difficult policy challenges presented by the overwhelming imperative to take all steps necessary to restore financial stability and revive the global economy, and the longer-run need for national actions to be mutually supporting. The first of two analytical chapters, "What Kind of Economic Recovery?" explores the shape of the eventual recovery. The second, "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging and Developing Economies," focuses on the role of external financial linkages and financial stress in transmitting economic shocks.22 Apr 2009 09:00:00 ESTWorld Economichttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22575http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=21531Low-income countries continue to face significant challenges in meeting their vast development needs while maintaining a sustainable debt position, even after many of these countries have benefited from substantial debt relief. These challenges are further exacerbated by changes in the financial landscape, including the emergence of new creditors and investors, the use of more complex financing vehicles, and the development of domestic markets. The joint World Bank/IMF debt sustainability framework is well placed to help address these challenges and reduce the risks of renewed episodes of debt distress. This paper explains the analytical underpinnings of the framework and the means to ensure its full effectiveness.25 Feb 2009 09:00:00 ESTOccasional Paperhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=21531http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22247This paper surveys the foreign exchange markets, money and secondary government security markets, and stock exchanges in 107 smaller economy countries. The underdevelopment of these markets impedes risk transfer, monetary policy, corporate financing, and the capacity to absorb capital inflows. This study marks a first step toward formulating policies to develop essential smaller economy financial markets by documenting the stylized facts and presenting a framework for assessing the policy issues.16 Dec 2008 09:00:00 ESTOccasional Paperhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22247http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22028A unique international exercise in information-gathering and analysis An extraordinary confluence of global forces has kept the world economy strong in the past few years, but there are now numerous challenges to growth. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) presents the IMF's leading economists' analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium terms. It is a respected, one-stop, trusted resource offering remarkable insight, balance, and perspective to decision makers and policymakers worldwide. Published at least twice yearly, the World Economic Outlook presents the outlook for growth, inflation, trade, and other economic developments in a clear, practical format. Each WEO considers the issues affecting advanced and emerging economies. The analytic chapters provide the global intelligence required to deal with global interdependence. These analyses focus on pressing concerns or hotly debated issues, putting prospects for liquidity, inflation, and growth into context. The statistical appendix presents historical data as well as projections and selected series from World Economic Outlook database updated for each report. The October 2008 edition examines commodity prices and inflation, economic cycles in the aftermath of financial crises, the role of fiscal policy during downturns, and current account imbalances in emerging economies. Recent analytic chapters have examined climate change, the housing cycle, commodity prices, capital inflows, globalization and inequality, and the global business cycle.17 Oct 2008 09:00:00 ESTWorld Economichttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22028http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22027The Global Financial Stability Report identifies potential fault lines in the global financial system that could lead to crisis, while providing comprehensive coverage of mature and emerging financial markets. The GFSR focuses on current conditions in global financial markets, highlighting issues that could pose risks to financial market stability and market access by emerging market borrowers. The October 2008 GFSR reflects information available up to September 15, 2008.10 Oct 2008 09:00:00 ESTGlobal Financialshttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22027http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22027The Global Financial Stability Report identifies potential fault lines in the global financial system that could lead to crisis, while providing comprehensive coverage of mature and emerging financial markets. The GFSR focuses on current conditions in global financial markets, highlighting issues that could pose risks to financial market stability and market access by emerging market borrowers. The October 2008 GFSR reflects information available up to September 15, 2008.10 Oct 2008 09:00:00 ESTGlobal Financialshttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22027http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22027The Global Financial Stability Report identifies potential fault lines in the global financial system that could lead to crisis, while providing comprehensive coverage of mature and emerging financial markets. The GFSR focuses on current conditions in global financial markets, highlighting issues that could pose risks to financial market stability and market access by emerging market borrowers. The October 2008 GFSR reflects information available up to September 15, 2008.10 Oct 2008 09:00:00 ESTGlobal Financialshttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22027http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=21761Uruguay has experienced a remarkable recovery since the 2002 crisis, supported by sound policies and favorable external conditions. With the framework put in place in 2002, Uruguay abandoned an exchange rate peg in favor of a free float, adoped a monetary regime initially based on money targets, improved financial prudential norms and supervision, and accumulated significant central bank reserves. Against this background, Uruguay now faces issues beyond those addressed to stabilize the economy. As the country pursues key postcrisis monetary and financial reforms, the analysis provided in this paper has a direct bearing on the ongoing efforts to move toward a fully fledged inflation-targeting regime and develop interest rates as monetary instruments, as well as on the preparedness of the financial system to deal with shocks, and the adequacy of current central bank reserves.25 Jul 2008 09:00:00 ESTOccasional Paperhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=21761http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22171Policy Discussion Paper No. 08/301 Jul 2008 09:00:00 ESTPolicy Discussionhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22171http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22007Although capital inflows are generally beneficial to recipient countries, they also pose a challenge for the conduct of economic policy. This paper proposes a conceptual taxonomy to guide the design of policy responses in the face of capital flows. We explore how responses to capital surges should be differentiated based on the source of balance of payments pressures. We also examine whether the policy choices in emerging market countries conform to the taxonomy's predictions and find some correspondence, especially during periods of high global liquidity.01 Jun 2008 09:00:00 ESTPolicy Discussionhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22007http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=21645This paper examines the various roles of IMF financing in crisis prevention. Emerging market economies that experienced financial crises in the past have been subject to enormous economic and social costs, highlighting the importance of crisis prevention. While the main defense against a crisis lies in a country’s own policies and institutional framework, the IMF can contribute to these efforts through its surveillance activities, provision of technical assistance, and promotion of standards and codes. But the IMF may be able to contribute to crisis prevention more directly by providing contingent financial support. This paper explores the theoretical basis of, and empirical evidence for, possible “crisis prevention programs.”16 May 2008 09:00:00 ESTOccasional Paperhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=21645http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=21921This paper assesses the proposal, publicly debated in recent years in Italy, to reduce public debt by selling public assets, especially nonfinancial tangible assets. The main findings indicate that, although selling public assets has some merit if done to make more productive use of them, practical complications abound. Moreover, such sales might weaken underlying fiscal discipline. Other heavily indebted countries have reduced their debt much more than Italy without heavy recourse to extraordinary sales. In this context, the case of Belgium is of particular interest. Weighing the trade-offs, if properly and transparently done, the sale of public assets can complement, to a limited extent, fiscal consolidation, but should not be considered as an alternative to it.01 May 2008 09:00:00 ESTPolicy Discussionhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=21921http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=20359The global expansion is losing speed in the face of a major financial crisis. The slowdown has been greatest in the advanced economies, particularly in the United States, where the housing market correction continues to exacerbate financial stress. The emerging and developing economies have so far been less affected by fi nancial market developments and have continued to grow at a rapid pace, led by China and India, although activity is beginning to slow in some countries. At the same time, headline infl ation has increased around the world, boosted by the continuing buoyancy of food and energy prices. Policymakers around the world are facing a diverse and fast-moving set of challenges, and although each country's circumstances differ, in an increasingly multipolar world it will be essential to meet these challenges broadly, taking full account of cross-border interactions. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) presents the IMF staff's analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries. It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects. It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF's global surveillance activities. 09 Apr 2008 09:00:00 ESTWorld Economichttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=20359http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=19789Designed to meet the basic needs of economists and statisticians, this pamphlet is unique in providing an explanation of the key principles underlying macroeconomic statistics when viewed as an integrated system. It highlights the interrelationships between the various sectors and provides a bridge linking the various macroeconomic accounts statistics-national accounts, balance of payments, government finance statistics, and monetary and financial statistics-to assist the reader in understanding the main concepts underlying these statistics. It does so by simplifying many of the concepts, explaining common features and differences, showing how the four key statistical areas harmonize, and providing examples to demonstrate the practical application and uses of the concepts within the conceptual framework. The pamphlet completely updates Pamphlet No. 29, Macroeconomic Accounts: An Overview, by Poul Hølst-Madsen, which was published in 1985.29 Aug 2007 09:00:00 ESTPamphlet Serieshttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=19789http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=21171Australia has enjoyed fifteen years of uninterrupted economic expansion since 1992 despite shocks such as the Asian crisis in 1997-98 and the information technology bust in 2000-01. This resilient economic performance owes much to wide-ranging structural reforms and the improved frameworks for monetary and fiscal policies that were implemented after the Australian dollar was floated in 1983. In addition to gaining the expected macroeconomic benefits from exchange rate flexibility, the float appeared to help motivate and facilitate the subsequent reforms. Australia's experience with adapting to a floating currency may therefore be of broader interest.01 Jul 2007 09:00:00 ESTPolicy Discussionhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=21171http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=20652Welfare states can be reformed successfully, and popular support for reforms can be maintained. But this requires an internally consistent package of labor market, fiscal, and product market reforms, including some kind of buy-in, through, for example, tax cuts. Empirical analysis combined with a select number of case studies-comprising Ireland, Denmark, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom-reveals that successful reformers focused on increasing labor supply through benefit reform, lowering tax wedges, and lowering government consumption. At the same time, greater labor supply translated into employment growth more effectively in the presence of liberal labor and product markets.01 May 2007 09:00:00 ESTPolicy Discussionhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=20652http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=20354The global economy grew strongly in the first half of 2007, although turbulence in financial markets has clouded prospects. While the 2007 forecast has been little affected, the baseline projection for 2008 global growth has been reduced by almost ½ percentage point relative to the July 2007 World Economic Outlook Update. This would still leave global growth at a solid 4¾ percent, supported by generally sound fundamentals and strong momentum in emerging market economies. Risks to the outlook, however, are firmly on the downside, centered around the concern that financial market strains could deepen and trigger a more pronounced global slowdown. Thus, the immediate focus of policymakers is to restore more normal financial market conditions and safeguard the expansion. Additional risks to the outlook include potential inflation pressures, volatile oil markets, and the impact on emerging markets of strong foreign exchange inflows. At the same time, longer-term issues such as population aging, increasing resistance to globalization, and global warming are a source of concern.11 Apr 2007 09:00:00 ESTWorld Economichttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=20354http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=18456Over the past three decades, public spending on infrastructure, as a share of GDP, has been on the decline worldwide. Although the link between infrastructure investment and economic growth is not yet fully understood, the quality of infrastructure clearly affects a country's productivity, competitiveness in export markets, and ability to attract foreign investment. This EI explores the following questions: Should countries increase public investment in infrastructure? If the answer is yes, how can they do so in a fiscally responsible manner? Are public-private partnerships a viable alternative?21 Mar 2007 09:00:00 ESTEconomic Issuehttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=18456http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=19780The IMF’s World Economic Outlook is packed with country specific facts, figures, and worldwide projections that present the outlook for growth, inflation, trade, and other economic developments in a clear, practical format. Leading international economists pull together the latest data on key topics, producing informed projections and policy analyses that show where the global economy is headed in the years to come. Business executives, policymakers, bankers, investors, marketing strategists, and economists worldwide refer to the WEO with confidence because it delivers a balanced view of the current economic situation, built upon the respected and extensive macroeconomic expertise and statistical resources of the IMF. The WEO is the product of a unique international exercise in information gathering and analysis performed by over 1,000 economists on the IMF staff. An annual subscription to the World Economic Outlook, published at least twice a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, offers a comprehensive assessment of the international economic situation as well as prospects for the future. With its analyses backed by the expertise and unparalleled resources of the IMF, the World Economic Outlook is the authoritative reference in its field. Today, when even small economic fluctuations can trigger major financial swings, the WEO supplies a solid source of actionable information and data.19 Sep 2006 09:00:00 ESTWorld Economichttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=19780http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=18850Pamphlet Series, No. 5517 Aug 2006 09:00:00 ESTPamphlet Serieshttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=18850http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=19398The current round of multilateral trade negotiations-the Doha Round-presents an opportunity for countries to reap the benefits of trade liberalization. Unfortunately, a number of misconceptions about the likely impact of trade reforms has, in part, impeded more rapid progress toward completion of the Round. This paper addresses some of the most egregious of these misconceptions and presents results from IMF research that sheds light on these issues. In particular, this paper argues that: (i) developing countries have much to gain from their own trade liberalization; (ii) preference erosion could be significant for some countries, but it is not a justification for postponing tariff reductions; (iii) tariffs applied against agricultural products in rich countries actually harm developing countries more than subsidies; and (iv) a disproportionate share of agricultural subsidies in rich countries goes to large wealthy farmers.01 Aug 2006 09:00:00 ESTPolicy Discussionhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=19398http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=19774The IMF's World Economic Outlook is packed with country specific facts, figures, and worldwide projections that present the outlook for growth, inflation, trade, and other economic developments in a clear, practical format. Leading international economists pull together the latest data on key topics, producing informed projections and policy analyses that show where the global economy is headed in the years to come. Business executives, policymakers, bankers, investors, marketing strategists, and economists worldwide refer to the WEO with confidence because it delivers a balanced view of the current economic situation, built upon the respected and extensive macroeconomic expertise and statistical resources of the IMF. The WEO is the product of a unique international exercise in information gathering and analysis performed by over 1,000 economists on the IMF staff. An annual subscription to the World Economic Outlook, published at least twice a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, offers a comprehensive assessment of the international economic situation as well as prospects for the future. With its analyses backed by the expertise and unparalleled resources of the IMF, the World Economic Outlook is the authoritative reference in its field. Today, when even small economic fluctuations can trigger major financial swings, the WEO supplies a solid source of actionable information and data. 19 Apr 2006 09:00:00 ESTWorld Economichttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=19774http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=18143Efforts to liberalize world trade are increasingly focusing on strengthening the links between low-income countries’ trade policies and their development strategies. However, although greater trade openness promises faster growth for poor countries, it also presents risks to those with small and undiversified economies. This pamphlet explores research by Fund staff into the nature and magnitude of these risks and proposes targeted policy solutions to ease adjustments and encourage developing countries to choose fuller participation in the world trading system.06 Apr 2006 09:00:00 ESTEconomic Issuehttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=18143http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=18455Policymakers are often reluctant to grant independence to the agencies that regulate and supervise the financial sector because of the fear that these agencies, with their wide-ranging responsibilities and powers, could become a law unto themselves. This pamphlet describes mechanisms for making regulatory agencies accountable not only to the government but also to the industry they supervise and the public at large, with examples from a range of countries.14 Mar 2006 09:00:00 ESTEconomic Issuehttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=18455http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=18918There has been a growing recognition of the importance of transparency for economic growth and social development in oil producing countries. This paper analyzes transparency issues in Cameroon's oil sector. It shows that, while substantial efforts have already been undertaken, continued action is necessary to strengthen transparency. The paper seeks to identify why and how transparency, especially in the fiscal area, matters for economic development and poverty reduction in Cameroon.01 Mar 2006 09:00:00 ESTPolicy Discussionhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=18918http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=18848China has achieved tremendous economic progress in the last three decades, but there is much work to be done to make the economy resilient to large shocks, ensure the sustainability of its growth, and translate this growth into corresponding improvements in the economic welfare of its citizens. We discuss the complex challenges that Chinese policymakers face in striking the right balance in terms of speed and coordination of reforms. We argue that China's current stage of development, along with its rising market orientation and increasing integration with the world economy, may make the incremental and piecemeal approaches to reforms increasingly untenable and, in some cases, could even generate risks of their own. The present favorable domestic and external circumstances provide an excellent window of opportunity for bolder reforms and for tackling some deep-rooted problems without causing much economic disruption.01 Mar 2006 09:00:00 ESTPolicy Discussionhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=18848http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=18454A growing number of countries are adopting flexible exchange rate regimes because flexibility offers more protection against external shocks and greater monetary independence. Other countries have made the transition under disorderly conditions, with the sharp depreciation of their currency during a crisis. Regardless of the reason for adopting a flexible exchange rate, a successful transition depends on the effective management of a number of institutional and operational issues. The authors of this Economic Issue describe the necessary ingredients for moving to a flexible regime, as well as the optimal pace and sequencing under different conditions.09 Jan 2006 09:00:00 ESTEconomic Issuehttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=18454http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=18757While a number of emerging market crises were characterized by widespread contagion during the 1990s, more recent crises (notably, in Argentina) have been mostly contained within national borders. This has led some observers to wonder whether contagion might have become a feature of the past, with markets now better discriminating between countries with good and bad fundamentals. This paper argues that a prudent working assumption is that contagion has not vanished permanently. Available data do not seem to point to a disappearance of the main channels that contribute to transmitting crises across countries. Moreover, anticipation of the Argentine crisis by international investors may help explain the recent absence of contagion.01 Jan 2006 09:00:00 ESTPolicy Discussionhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=18757http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=18740Assessments regarding the effectiveness of sovereign debt restructurings are often summarized by comparisons of the net present value of debt service before and after the restructuring. These calculations are inherently sensitive to the choice of discount rate. This paper explores issues that arise in selecting discount rates when evaluating sovereign debt restructurings. It suggests using a range of discount rates and centering the analysis around the internal rate of return to assess whether the debt restructuring has generated net present value savings or costs to the debtor.01 Dec 2005 09:00:00 ESTPolicy Discussionhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=18740http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=19097The World Economic Outlook is the product of a unique international exercise in information gathering and analysis performed by IMF staff to guide key initiatives and to serve IMF member countries. Published at least twice a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, the World Economic Outlook offers a comprehensive picture of the international economic situation and prospects for the future. With its analyses backed by the expertise and resources of over 1,100 IMF economists, the World Economic Outlook is the authoritative reference in its field. Today, even small economic fluctuations can trigger major financial swings. It’s vital to have the latest perspective on what’s happening and where it could lead in the coming months and years. The World Economic Outlook brings you that perspective, giving you analyses, forecasts, and figures you’ll use all year long.20 Sep 2005 09:00:00 ESTWorld Economichttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=19097http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=17385Financial sector liberalization was high on the agenda of policymakers during the last quarter of the twentieth century. But there were significant differences in the pace and scale of reform. This pamphlet examines the factors triggering-or impeding and even reversing-financial reform in 35 economies, both industrial and developing.12 Jul 2005 09:00:00 ESTEconomic Issuehttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=17385http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=17385Financial sector liberalization was high on the agenda of policymakers during the last quarter of the twentieth century. But there were significant differences in the pace and scale of reform. This pamphlet examines the factors triggering-or impeding and even reversing-financial reform in 35 economies, both industrial and developing.12 Jul 2005 09:00:00 ESTEconomic Issuehttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=17385http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=17384The Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative, launched in 1999 by the IMF and the World Bank, was the first coordinated effort by the international financial community to reduce the foreign debt of the world’s poorest countries. It was based on the theory that economic growth in heavily indebted poor countries was being stifled by heavy debt burdens, making it virtually impossible for these countries to escape poverty. However, most of the empirical research on the effects of debt on growth has lumped together a diverse group of countries, and the literature on the countries’ impact of debt on poor is scant. This pamphlet presents the findings of the authors’ empirical research into the subject, analyzing the channels through which debt affects growth in low-income countries.01 Jun 2005 09:00:00 ESTEconomic Issuehttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=17384http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=16604In an ideal world, primary education would be universal and publicly financed, and all children would be able to attend school regardless of their parents’ ability or willingness to pay. In many poor countries, however, governments lack either the financial resources or the political will to provide each child with a basic education, despite the benefits that would accrue not only to individuals but to society as a whole. In some of these countries, parents cover part or all of the cost of their children’s education. This paper explores the pros and cons of user payments.21 Apr 2004 09:00:00 ESTEconomic Issuehttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=16604http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=16993In nearly every major financial crisis of the past decade-from East Asia to Russia, Turkey, and Latin America-political interference in financial sector regulation helped make a bad situation worse. Political pressures not only weakened financial regulation, but also hindered regulators and supervisors from taking action against troubled banks. This paper investigates why, to fulfill their mandate to preserve financial sector stability, financial sector regulators and supervisors need to be independent-from the financial services industry as well as from the government-as well as accountable.08 Mar 2004 09:00:00 ESTEconomic Issuehttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=16993http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=15954Fiscal policy affects sustainable development through its effects on growth, the environment, and resource development. What are the relationships between fiscal policy and sustainable development, and how does the IMF seek to promote sustainable development in its policy advice? What lessons have been learned so far, and how can governments, the international community, and international financial institutions more fully support sustainable development?12 Aug 2002 09:00:00 ESTPamphlet Serieshttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=15954http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=15804The author-a top decision maker at the IMF for two decades-first focuses on the system of quotas and voting power in the IMF and concludes that it calls for reforms to enhance equity among the membership. He then examines decision making in the Executive Board, with an emphasis on consensus building in a cooperative institution, and the record of political oversight of the international monetary system through the Interim Committee and its successor, the International Monetary and Financial Committee. In that context, the author also comments on the impact on IMF decision making of the activities of groups of members, and of the differing interests of major shareholders. Thereafter, he recalls the distinctive features of the financial crises of the 1990s and examines their evolving implications for IMF governance. The essay concludes with an appraisal of IMF governance.09 Aug 2002 09:00:00 ESTPamphlet Serieshttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=15804http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=15650Looks at the policy choices involved in creating pension schemes, particularly whether it is advisable to move away from government pay-as-you-go pensions toward private or publicly funded plans. Examines the reasons for the controversy surrounding pension design, and whether the second level of pension systems should be mandatory, private, funded, and defined-contribution.30 Apr 2002 09:00:00 ESTEconomic Issuehttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=15650http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=15251This pamphlet describes the financial structure and operations of the IMF, as well as the sources of IMF financing, the policies associated with the use of IMF resources, the role of the IMF as trustee to various accounts that are administered by it, and the safeguards established for protecting the IMF’s resources. Published in 1990. Extensively revised in 2001 (sixth edition).18 Dec 2001 09:00:00 ESTPamphlet Serieshttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=15251http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=3448This pamphlet describes the IMF-World Bank initiative begun in 1996 to address in a comprehensive manner the overall debt burden of eligible heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs) pursuing programs of adjustment and reform supported by the two organizations. The aim of the Initiative is to reduce these countries' debt to sustainable levels so that they can meet current and future debt service obligations without unduly compromising growth. This pamphlet describes the rationale for and the main features of the Initiative as it was originally conceived in 1996 and its implementation through the fall of 1999, which culminated in the approval of an enhanced HIPC Initiative in late 1999 that is aimed at providing deeper and more rapid debt relief to a larger number of countries. The enhanced HIPC Initiative also seeks to ensure that debt relief is integrated into a comprehensive poverty reduction strategy that is developed with broad-based participation and tailored to the country's circumstances.03 Dec 1999 09:00:00 ESTPamphlet Serieshttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=3448http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=2844Papers on Policy Analysis and Assessment No. 98/1401 Dec 1998 09:00:00 ESTPolicy Analysishttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=2844http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=2784Papers on Policy Analysis and Assessment No. 98/1301 Oct 1998 09:00:00 ESTPolicy Analysishttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=2784http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=2692The IMF is increasingly emphasizing "high-quality growth" - that is, growth that is sustainable, that is accompanied by appropriate domestic and external balances, that respects the environment, and that is aided by policies that reduce poverty and foster greater equity. This pamphlet focuses on how the IMF works to reduce poverty and improve equity.02 Sep 1998 09:00:00 ESTPamphlet Serieshttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=2692http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=2766Papers on Policy Analysis and Assessment No. 98/1201 Sep 1998 09:00:00 ESTPolicy Analysishttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=2766http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=2765Papers on Policy Analysis and Assessment No. 98/1101 Sep 1998 09:00:00 ESTPolicy Analysishttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=2765http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=2711Papers on Policy Analysis and Assessment No. 98/1001 Aug 1998 09:00:00 ESTPolicy Analysishttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=2711http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=2689Papers on Policy Analysis and Assessment No. 98/901 Aug 1998 09:00:00 ESTPolicy Analysishttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=2689http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=2673Papers on Policy Analysis and Assessment No. 98/801 Jul 1998 09:00:00 ESTPolicy Analysishttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=2673http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=2650Papers on Policy Analysis and Assessment No. 98/701 Jun 1998 09:00:00 ESTPolicy Analysishttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=2650http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=2593Papers on Policy Analysis and Assessment No. 98/401 May 1998 09:00:00 ESTPolicy Analysishttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=2593http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=2591Papers on Policy Analysis and Assessment No. 98/501 May 1998 09:00:00 ESTPolicy Analysishttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=2591http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=714Against the background of the changing international economic environment, this pamphlet examines the general rationale for IMF financial support and the relationship between such support and IMF surveillance in carrying out the IMF's responsibility to seek to avoid and help to correct maladjustments in countries' balance of payments. It analyzes the circumstances in which IMF financing continues to have an important role, draws possible lessons for the role of the IMF from the Mexican financial crisis, and discusses the future need for IMF resources.04 Dec 1996 09:00:00 ESTPamphlet Serieshttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=714http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=566Public expenditures policy, together with efforts to raise revenue, is at the core of efficient and equitable adjustment. Public expenditure productivity has critical implications for fiscal adjustment, particularly as the competition for limited public resources intensifies. By providing a framework for defining and analyzing public expenditure productivity and unproductive expenditures, this pamphlet discusses how economic policymakers may approach these issues.10 Aug 1995 09:00:00 ESTPamphlet Serieshttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=566http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=258Pamphlet Series, No. 4415 Sep 1987 09:00:00 ESTPamphlet Serieshttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=258