/external/pubs/cat/createx/AFRDeptpapers.aspxThe Departmental African Paper Series covers research on Sub-Saharan Africa conducted by Fund staff, particularly on issues of broad regional or cross-country interest.Imf.Org RSS Feed GeneratorENhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40480The reform of energy subsidies is an important but challenging issue for sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. There is a relatively large theoretical and empirical literature on this issue. While this paper relies on that literature, too, it tailors its discussion to SSA countries to respond to the following questions: Why it is important to reduce energy subsidies? What are the difficulties involved in energy subsidy reform? How best can a subsidy reform be implemented? This paper uses various sources of information on SSA countries: quantitative assessments, surveys, and individual (but standardized) case studies.18 Apr 2013 09:00:00 ESTAfrican Departmental Paperhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40480http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40219The Kingdom of Swaziland (hereinafter “Swaziland”) is a small, open economy bordering Mozambique and South Africa with a population of 1.1 million people. It is a landlocked country with an economy heavily dependent on concentrates, sugar exports, and tourism, and with more than 80 percent of its imports originating from South Africa. Swaziland is a member of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) and has increasingly relied on SACU transfers in the last few years as a source of fiscal revenue and foreign exchange receipts. Its currency, the lilangeni, is pegged at parity with the South African rand under the Common Monetary Area. The rand is also legal tender in Swaziland. After two difficult fiscal years, Swaziland has regained fiscal space with a sharp increase in transfers from the Southern African Customs Union (SACU). The deficits accumulated during these two fiscal years (13.4 and 6.0 percent of GDP in 2011/12 and 2012/13, respectively) led to: (i) a significant drawdown of gross official reserves at the central bank, (ii) significant domestic borrowing, and (iii) an accumulation of domestic payment arrears, estimated at E 1.6 billion (5.4 percent of GDP) at end-March 2012. Arrears affected largely pension funds and government suppliers (each account for about 40 percent of the total stock of arrears). As a result, real GDP growth is projected to contract by 1.5 percent in 2012, mostly because of the accumulated arrears, a stagnant credit to the private sector, and weak confidence in Swaziland fiscal and external sustainability. With SACU transfers increasing from about 10 percent of GDP in 2011/12 to 22.5 percent in 2012/13, some fiscal space was regained. The windfall revenue has been used to repay an advance taken by the central bank and to reduce arrears by E 250 million as of end-September 2012. An additional E 720 million in arrears to the public pension fund have been restructured into a three-year loan. Higher SACU transfers have also improved external balances by reducing the current account deficit and increasing central bank reserves. Reserves are broadly adequate at E 6.0 billion (3.1 months of imports) at end-November 2012, a significant improvement from the E 3.7 billion recorded at end-March 2012.01 Feb 2013 09:00:00 ESTAfrican Departmental Paperhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40219http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25430Swaziland has faced a significant fiscal crisis since 2010, in the wake of loss of transfers from the Southern African Customs Union (SACU). The fiscal crisis has led to increasing vulnerabilities, not only of public finances but also on commercial banks and the private sector. This paper provides an analysis of Swaziland's main macroeconomic vulnerabilities and the main policy implications of the analysis.23 Dec 2011 09:00:00 ESTAfrican Departmental Paperhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25430http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25181African Departmental Paper No. 11/0604 Oct 2011 09:00:00 ESTAfrican Departmental Paperhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25181http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25154This paper examines whether a mix of tighter fiscal policy, looser monetary policy, and greater reserve build-up would increase growth and depreciate the rand in real terms. The experience of South Africa over the last twenty years is looked at using a number of econometric techniques that control for the external environment.25 Aug 2011 09:00:00 ESTAfrican Departmental Paperhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25154http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25151This paper provides an assessment of the South African potential output for the period 1985-2010 by applying both structural and nonstructural estimation techniques. The analysis suggests that, while potential output growth steadily accelerated in the post-apartheid era to about 3 1/2 percent (1994-2008), it has decelerated considerably following the outbreak of the financial crisis, as was observed in other advanced and emerging economies. While this indicates that, at around -1 1/ 2 percent, the estimated 2010 output gap was lower than previously thought, there is a fair amount of uncertainty regarding its "true" magnitude, reflecting in part the backward looking nature of the estimation methods. The paper concludes that the potential growth is likely to gradually revert to its precrisis pace and the output gap to have closed by early 2012.25 Aug 2011 09:00:00 ESTAfrican Departmental Paperhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25151http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24512The Southern African Customs Union (SACU) is facing its biggest challenge in its 100 years of existence. The global economic crisis has significantly reduced its revenue outlook, which is having a disproportionate impact on its smaller member countries, and which calls for an appropriate policy response. This paper discusses specifically the implications for Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, and Swaziland, and provides recommendations regarding the proper fiscal response by these countries to the decline in SACU revenue.01 Jan 2011 09:00:00 ESTAfrican Departmental Paperhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24512http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23901African Departmental Paper No. 10/0323 Jun 2010 09:00:00 ESTAfrican Departmental Paperhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23901http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23898African Departmental Paper No. 10/0227 May 2010 09:00:00 ESTAfrican Departmental Paperhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23898http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23897This paper analyzes the impact of Benin's public wage policy on medium and long-term fiscal and debt sustainability. The main findings are that if the wage bill continues to increase in line with recent trends, debt and fiscal sustainability could be compromised by excessive deficits or by crowding out growth-enhancing public investment. The study shows that with fiscal policy guided by targets aimed at maintaining debt sustainability, population growth, and the intent to progress towards the Millennium Development Goals, there will be little space for civil service pay increases. Limiting wage bill increases to maintain fiscal sustainability is only a first step in the authorities' broader objective of reforming the civil service.25 May 2010 09:00:00 ESTAfrican Departmental Paperhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23897