## presentation-work-plan

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---

### Modules Overview and Resource Allocation
- Modules:
  - Module M1: Addressing Data Needs and Quality Concerns.
  - Module M2: Financial Access Survey (FAS).
  - Module M3: Online Learning.
  - Module M4: Statistical Information Management (SIM).
- M1 submodules and workstreams:
  - Real Sector Statistics (RSS) with workstreams: Residential Property Price Indexes (RPPIs), High-Frequency Indicators (HFIs), Source Data and Intermediate Statistics.
  - Fiscal and Debt Reporting (GFS/PSDS) with workstreams: Government Finance Statistics (GFS), Public Sector Debt Statistics (PSDS).
  - External Sector Statistics (ESS) with workstreams: Current Account of the Balance of Payments (CA BOP), Financial Account of the Balance of Payments (FA BOP).
- Indicative D4D Fund resource allocations:
  - USD 19-21 million for Module M1 (Addressing Data Needs and Quality Concerns).
  - USD 4-5 million for Module M2 (FAS).
  - USD 5-7 million for Module M3 (Online Learning).
  - USD 1-1.5 million for Module M4 (SIM).
  - Real Sector Statistics (RSS): USD 6-7 million.
  - Fiscal and Debt Reporting (GFS/PSDS): USD 7 million.
  - External Sector Statistics (ESS): USD 6-7 million.
- Advantages of the modular approach:
  - Ability to respond to newly emerging issues.
  - Flexibility to reallocate resources between countries and work streams.
  - Long-term planning certainty to match country absorptive capacities.
  - Efficient use of D4D Fund resources and synergy with other IMF CD vehicles.
  - Different paces in implementation across four modules, three submodules and seven work streams.

### Phasing, Delivery Modes, and Country Work Plans
- Phasing:
  - Workstreams planned across FY2019–FY2023 including sustainment of FAS (M2), development and launch of eight fundamental statistics courses (M3), and SIM advice and technical environments (M4).
- Typical country work plan components:
  - Baseline of existing practices developed from country diagnostics.
  - Decision on mode of CD delivery.
  - Assessment of synergies with other IMF CD vehicles and other CD providers.
  - Measures to address implementation risks.
  - Endorsement by country authorities.
- Diagnostic, training, and peer-learning elements:
  - Diagnostic: Assessment of need and capacity of country authorities.
  - Training: Rationale; Source data; Methodology; Compilation methods.
  - Peer learning: Exchange on best practices among countries with similar challenges.
- Delivery modes may include workshops, country-owned work plans, TA missions, and measures to assess progress versus country logframe milestones.

### Strategic Objective and Country Logframes
- D4D’s Strategic Objective:
  - Assist LLMICs in strengthening national statistical systems to cope with a challenging national and international policy environment, promote transparency and accountability, and offer efficient solutions to capacity development.
- Impact outcome:
  - More and better data are available for decision-makers and analysts to better inform economic policies and support monitoring of the SDGs.
- Objective (Module 1):
  - Policy-makers and the public have access to more and better data in three main statistical domains (real, external, and fiscal and debt statistics).
- Country logframe components:
  - Baselines developed from country diagnostics.
  - Targeted outcomes agreed with country authorities.
  - Milestones to measure progress towards outcomes.

### Real Sector Statistics (RSS): RPPIs, HFIs, Source Data
- RPPI strategic outcome:
  - Strengthened compilation and dissemination of RPPIs by improving statistical infrastructure, source data, serviceability and metadata.
- RPPI five-year end outcomes (D4D period):
  - For around one-tenth of eligible countries that already have a basic RPPI: Compilation and dissemination will be brought in line with Handbook guidelines; staff capacity increased through CD.
  - For around one-eighth of eligible countries currently working on RPPI compilation: Staff capacity will be increased through CD.
  - For around four-fifths of eligible countries where no RPPI is available: Regional workshops will provide training, complemented by follow-up TA missions if sufficient progress in basic data collection.
  - Follow-up assessments through IMF CD activities and dissemination on NSDPs, IMF databases, and/or country web sites.
- RPPI economic rationale:
  - Residential property price trends inform assessment of banking sector risks; evidence suggests about two-thirds of booms in the sample end badly (a “troubled” real-estate boom defined as a housing boom followed by a recession of negative real GDP growth for two or more consecutive quarters).
  - G20 Data Gaps Initiative includes II.17: Residential Property Prices (RPPI) among recommended expansions.
- HFI strategic outcome and rationale:
  - Strengthened compilation and dissemination of well-defined, high-frequency indicators of economic activity.
  - About two-thirds of LLMICs compile some monthly or quarterly economic activity indicator but many lack GDP statistics and HFIs with desired periodicity and timeliness.
  - Annual information does not permit precise and timely identification of turning points—HFIs do better.
- Source Data and Intermediate Statistics delivery and expected contributions:
  - Make better use of existing source data (administrative data, business and household surveys, price indices, Big Data) to limit need for expensive new surveys.
  - Improve compilation of GDP estimates, facilitate re-basing of national accounts, produce granular sectoral GDP data, and prepare Services Producer Price Indices (SPPIs).
  - Expected contributions:
    - Improved national accounts including informal and digital economy estimates.
    - Reduced large revisions from periodic rebasing exercises.
    - Improved sectoral decompositions and cross-sectoral linkages.
    - New SPPI series to better differentiate productivity-driven price changes from general inflationary changes.
- Regional RSS activity examples:
  - WHD: 1 TA mission; EUR: 4 TA missions; APD: 1 workshop; AFR: 1 workshop and 6 TA missions.

### External Sector Statistics (ESS): Balance of Payments
- Strategic focus:
  - Improved balance of payments reliability to inform monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies and structural reform analysis.
  - Use of digitalization and new data sources (e.g., mobile money transactions) to reduce sizable data errors, improve remittances estimates, and address errors and omissions.
- Current Account needs:
  - More accurate and comprehensive data on international trade in goods and services to inform analysis of global value chains and the digital economy.
- Financial Account needs:
  - Strengthened analysis of cross-border risks and vulnerabilities via improved scope of financial account components including direct investment and external debt, and improved coverage of remittances.
- Regional ESS activity examples:
  - AFR: 3 TA missions; APD: 2 TA missions; MCD: 1 workshop and 5 TA missions.

### Fiscal and Debt Reporting (GFS/PSDS)
- Fiscal (GFS) strategic outcome and delivery:
  - Improved high-frequency GFS to understand government role, assess fiscal position, detect fiscal risks, foster accountability, and enhance cross-country comparability.
  - High-frequency GFS with improved quality, frequency, and timeliness compiled and disseminated for fiscal policy-makers, IMF surveillance, and the public.
  - Current status and baseline references include GFSM14 and GFSM86 frameworks.
  - Worldwide delivery example: 5 TA missions.
- Debt (PSDS) strategic outcome, rationale, and delivery:
  - Rising debt has led to Debt Sustainability Analysis rating downgrades.
  - Exact statistic: 34 percent of low-income, developing countries are now at high risk of/in debt distress compared to 21 percent in 2013.
  - Most countries that moved into high risk/in debt distress since 2013 are in sub-Saharan Africa.
  - Delivery focus: High-frequency PSDS, including contingent liabilities and arrears (as relevant), compiled and disseminated to fiscal policy-makers, the IMF for surveillance and PSDS databases, and the public.
  - Strategic outcome example—Debt-to-GDP series (Percent):
    - Sub-Saharan Africa (S SA) series for 2010–2016: 35.4, 37.5, 37.6, 39.9, 41.9, 46.7, 49.6.
    - Sub-Saharan Africa rebased series for 2010–2016: 27.8, 28.3, 28.3, 29.6, 31.8, 37.8, 43.7.
    - Tanzania series for 2010–2015: 40.2, 42.6, 45.4, 48.5, 53.0, 53.7.
    - Tanzania rebased series for 2010–2015: 27.8, 29.2, 30.9, 33.8, 37.2, 38.0.
  - Note: One-third of IMF member countries have not rebased national accounts for more than 10 years; best practice is to undertake rebasing every five year or less.
- Regional GFS/PSDS activity examples:
  - AFR: 3 workshops and 9 TA missions; MCD: 1 workshop and 3 TA missions; APD: 1 workshop and 3 TA missions.
- Quotations and mandates:
  - Communiqués (Finance Ministers & Central Bank Governors, March 20, 2018; IMFC, April 21, 2018) support TA in debt recording and reporting, and urge the IMF to strengthen fiscal frameworks and debt management capacity.

### Financial Access Survey (FAS)
- Objectives and strategic outcomes:
  - Continued production of the FAS to provide long time series on financial access.
  - Production of new data series to address rapidly changing data needs, with increasingly broad coverage and scope.
  - Provide basis for monitoring SDG financial inclusion indicator 8.10.1.
  - Contribute to research and policy on financial inclusion.
  - Adapted to close data gaps, capture innovation, and enhance relevance (including gender-disaggregated data, costs of financial access, and mobile money data).
- Evidence and stylized facts:
  - Chart statistic: ratio of female to male share of population with account at financial institutions versus poverty (US$ 2 threshold) with R² = 0.1232.
  - Presence indicators by region: mobile money agents per 100,000 adults and ATMs per 100,000 adults depicted across East Africa, West Africa, Other African Regions, Asia and the Pacific, and Other Regions.

### Online Learning (Module M3)
- Objective and delivery:
  - Development and implementation of a new online training curriculum covering eight fundamental statistical topical courses.
  - Translation in up to 5 languages, depending on availability of resources.
  - Certification from online training established as entry requirement to improve efficiency of face-to-face intermediate and advanced training.
  - Technology will deepen absorptive capacity for TA mission work.
  - Online training will spur positive externalities beyond macroeconomic statistics, essential for SDGs.
- Participant projections and milestones:
  - Historical and projected total number of participants in STA training shown across FY13–FY23 with a combined trend of actual STA face-to-face training and projection of online training (chart axis FY13 through FY23).
- Section 2 objective:
  - Objective of 50% increase from FY18.
- Strategic outcome:
  - Increased staff capacity through a new structured online learning curriculum that will enhance the reach of statistics training.
  - Pre-D4D Fund development of basic online course is close to completion.
  - Under the D4D Fund, eight fundamental STA courses will be rolled out and available online 24/7/365.
  - A broader and more diverse audience will have access to statistics training.

### Statistical Information Management (SIM, Module M4)
- Module goals:
  - Provide advice on statistical information management practices and related technical environments.
  - Support statistical information management as part of the D4D modular approach (timing and specific activities phased across FY2019–FY2023).
- Activities and expected impacts:
  - Streamline, standardize, and automate data management to enhance countries’ ability to compile and disseminate macroeconomic and financial statistics.
  - Improve statistical data and metadata lifecycle management and related frameworks, including tools needed for effective statistical information management and information on technical standards and statistical information models.
  - Disseminate and facilitate implementation of best practices in statistical data and metadata management and related frameworks established by the international community.
  - Transfer knowledge on governance structures; provide information on suitable technical standards and statistical information models; and advise on project design.
- Regional SIM activity example:
  - MCD: 2 TA missions.

*Christine Dieterich, Division Chief, IMF Statistics Department (STA); Work Plan presentation, June 22, 2018 (D4D Fund / IMF Statistics Department).*

### Section 1

### presentation-work-plan - Section 1

### Modules Overview
- Module M1: Addressing Data Needs and Quality Concerns.
- Module M2: Financial Access Survey (FAS).
- Module M3: Online Learning.
- Module M4: Statistical Information Management (SIM).
- Submodules and workstreams under M1:
  - Real Sector Statistics (RSS) with workstreams: Residential Property Price Indexes (RPPIs), High-Frequency Indicators (HFIs), Source Data and Intermediate Statistics.
  - Fiscal and Debt Reporting (GFS/PSDS) with workstreams: Government Finance Statistics (GFS), Public Sector Debt Statistics (PSDS).
  - External Sector Statistics (ESS) with workstreams: Current Account of the Balance of Payments (CA BOP), Financial Account of the Balance of Payments (FA BOP).
- Indicative D4D Fund resource allocations:
  - USD 19-21 million for Module M1 (Addressing Data Needs and Quality Concerns).
  - USD 4-5 million for Module M2 (FAS).
  - USD 5-7 million for Module M3 (Online Learning).
  - USD 1-1.5 million for Module M4 (SIM).
  - Real Sector Statistics (RSS): USD 6-7 million.
  - Fiscal and Debt Reporting (GFS/PSDS): USD 7 million.
  - External Sector Statistics (ESS): USD 6-7 million.
- Advantages of the modular approach:
  - Ability to respond to newly emerging issues.
  - Flexibility to reallocate resources between countries and work streams.
  - Long-term planning certainty to match country absorptive capacities.
  - Efficient use of D4D Fund resources and synergy with other IMF CD vehicles.
  - Different paces in implementation across four modules, three submodules and seven work streams.

### General Issues (Phasing, Delivery Modes, Work Plan)
- Phasing of workstreams planned across FY2019–FY2023 including sustainment of FAS (M2), development and launch of eight fundamental statistics courses (M3), and SIM advice and technical environments (M4).
- Typical country work plan components:
  - Baseline of existing practices developed from country diagnostics.
  - Decision on mode of CD delivery.
  - Assessment of synergies with other IMF CD vehicles and other CD providers.
  - Measures to address implementation risks.
  - Endorsement by country authorities.
- Diagnostic, training, and peer-learning elements:
  - Diagnostic: Assessment of need and capacity of country authorities.
  - Training: Rationale; Source data; Methodology; Compilation methods.
  - Peer learning: Exchange on best practices among countries with similar challenges.
- Delivery modes depend on available information and diagnostics; the work plan may include workshops, country-owned work plans, TA missions, and measures to assess progress versus country logframe milestones.

### Strategic and Country Logframes
- D4D’s Strategic Objective:
  - Assist LLMICs in strengthening national statistical systems to cope with a challenging national and international policy environment, promote transparency and accountability, and offer efficient solutions to capacity development.
- Impact outcome:
  - More and better data are available for decision-makers and analysts to better inform economic policies and support monitoring of the SDGs.
- Objective (Module 1):
  - Policy-makers and the public have access to more and better data in three main statistical domains (real, external, and fiscal and debt statistics).
- Real Sector Statistics — RPPI objective and five-year outcomes:
  - Strengthened compilation and dissemination of RPPIs, including by developing/improving statistical infrastructure, source data, serviceability and metadata.
  - At end of five-year D4D period:
    - For around one-tenth of eligible countries that already have a basic RPPI: Compilation and dissemination will be brought in line with Handbook guidelines; staff capacity increased through CD.
    - For around one-eighth of eligible countries currently working on RPPI compilation: Staff capacity will be increased through CD.
    - For around four-fifths of eligible countries where no RPPI is available: Regional workshops will provide training, complemented by follow-up TA missions if sufficient progress in basic data collection.
  - Follow-up assessments through IMF CD activities and dissemination on NSDPs, IMF databases, and/or country web sites.
- Country logframe includes:
  - Baselines developed from country diagnostics.
  - Targeted outcomes agreed with country authorities.
  - Milestones to measure progress towards outcomes.

### Workstreams Structure (M1 core role)
- M1 provides:
  - Core statistics CD aimed at improving economic policy-making, detecting risks and vulnerabilities, and supporting SDG reporting.
  - A holistic approach addressing an economy’s most pressing data gaps and quality issues, leveraging IMF country team experience.
  - Flexibility in CD delivery mode.

### Real Sector Statistics (RSS) — RPPIs, HFIs, Source Data
- CD Work Plan on RPPIs:
  - Strategic outcome: Strengthened compilation and dissemination of RPPIs by improving statistical infrastructure, source data, serviceability and metadata.
  - Economic rationale: Residential property price trends are important to assess banking sector risks; evidence suggests about two-thirds of booms in the sample end badly (a “troubled” real-estate boom defined as a housing boom followed by a recession of negative real GDP growth for two or more consecutive quarters).
  - G20 Data Gaps Initiative includes II.17: Residential Property Prices (RPPI) among recommended expansions.
- CD Work Plan on HFIs:
  - Strategic outcome: Strengthened compilation and dissemination of well-defined, high-frequency indicators of economic activity.
  - Economic rationale:
    - About two-thirds of LLMICs compile some monthly or quarterly economic activity indicator but many lack GDP statistics and HFIs with desired periodicity and timeliness.
    - Annual information does not permit precise and timely identification of turning points—HFIs do better.
- CD Work Plan on Source Data and Intermediate Statistics:
  - Economic rationale and delivery:
    - Make better use of existing source data (administrative data, business and household surveys, price indices, Big Data) to limit need for expensive new surveys.
    - Improve compilation of GDP estimates, facilitate re-basing of national accounts, produce granular sectoral GDP data, and prepare Services Producer Price Indices (SPPIs).
    - Expected contributions:
      - Improved national accounts including informal and digital economy estimates.
      - Reduced large revisions from periodic rebasing exercises.
      - Improved sectoral decompositions and cross-sectoral linkages.
      - New SPPI series to better differentiate productivity-driven price changes from general inflationary changes.
  - Regional activity examples:
    - WHD: 1 TA mission; EUR: 4 TA missions; APD: 1 workshop; AFR: 1 workshop and 6 TA missions.

### External Sector Statistics (ESS) — Balance of Payments
- CD Work Plan on Current Account BOP and Financial Account BOP:
  - Economic rationale:
    - Improved balance of payments reliability can affect monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies and inform structural reform needs.
    - Digitalization and new data sources (e.g., mobile money transactions) can reduce sizable data errors, improve remittances estimates, and address errors and omissions.
    - Current Account: More accurate and comprehensive data on international trade in goods and services to inform analysis of global value chains and the digital economy.
    - Financial Account: Strengthened analysis of cross-border risks and vulnerabilities via improved scope of financial account components including direct investment and external debt, and improved coverage of remittances.
  - Regional activities indicated: AFR: 3 TA missions; APD: 2 TA missions; MCD: 1 workshop and 5 TA missions.

### Fiscal and Debt Reporting (GFS/PSDS)
- CD Work Plan on Fiscal Reporting (GFS):
  - Economic rationale:
    - Improved high-frequency GFS is needed to fully understand government role, assess fiscal position, detect fiscal risks, foster accountability, and enhance cross-country comparability.
  - Delivery focus:
    - High-frequency GFS with improved quality, frequency, and timeliness compiled and disseminated for fiscal policy-makers, IMF surveillance, and the public.
  - Current status and baseline references include GFSM14 and GFSM86 frameworks.
  - Worldwide delivery example: 5 TA missions.
- CD Work Plan on Debt Reporting (PSDS):
  - Economic rationale:
    - Rising debt has led to Debt Sustainability Analysis rating downgrades.
    - 34 percent of low-income, developing countries are now at high risk of/in debt distress compared to 21 percent in 2013.
    - Most countries that moved into high risk/in debt distress since 2013 are in sub-Saharan Africa.
    - Quotations from Communiqués (Finance Ministers & Central Bank Governors, March 20, 2018; IMFC, April 21, 2018) supporting TA in debt recording and reporting, and urging the IMF to strengthen fiscal frameworks and debt management capacity.
  - Delivery focus:
    - High-frequency PSDS, including contingent liabilities and arrears (as relevant), compiled and disseminated to fiscal policy-makers, the IMF for surveillance and PSDS databases, and the public.
  - Strategic outcome example: Evolution of Risk of Debt Distress and illustrated Debt-to-GDP ratios before and after rebasing GDP:
    - Sub-Saharan Africa (S SA) Debt-to-GDP series (Percent) for 2010–2016 includes exact values: 35.4, 37.5, 37.6, 39.9, 41.9, 46.7, 49.6 for one series and 27.8, 28.3, 28.3, 29.6, 31.8, 37.8, 43.7 for the rebased series.
    - Tanzania Debt/GDP series (Percent) for 2010–2015 includes exact values: 40.2, 42.6, 45.4, 48.5, 53.0, 53.7 and the corresponding rebased series 27.8, 29.2, 30.9, 33.8, 37.2, 38.0.
  - Note: One-third of IMF member countries have not rebased national accounts for more than 10 years; best practice is to undertake rebasing every five year or less.
  - Regional activity examples: AFR: 3 workshops and 9 TA missions; MCD: 1 workshop and 3 TA missions; APD: 1 workshop and 3 TA missions.

### Financial Access Survey (FAS)
- Objectives and strategic outcomes:
  - Continued production of the FAS to provide long time series on financial access.
  - Production of new data series to address rapidly changing data needs, with increasingly broad coverage and scope.
  - Provide basis for monitoring SDG financial inclusion indicator 8.10.1.
  - Contribute to research and policy on financial inclusion.
  - Adapted to close data gaps, capture innovation, and enhance relevance (including gender-disaggregated data, costs of financial access, and mobile money data).
- Evidence and stylized facts:
  - Charts illustrate relationships such as ratio of female to male share of population with account at financial institutions versus poverty (US$ 2 threshold) with R² = 0.1232.
  - Presence of ATMs and mobile money agents by region: mobile money agents per 100,000 adults and ATMs per 100,000 adults depicted across East Africa, West Africa, Other African Regions, Asia and the Pacific, and Other Regions.

### Online Learning
- Objectives and delivery:
  - Development and implementation of a new online training curriculum covering eight fundamental statistical topical courses.
  - Translation in up to 5 languages, depending on availability of resources.
  - Certification from online training established as entry requirement to improve efficiency of face-to-face intermediate and advanced training.
- Participant projections:
  - Historical and projected total number of participants in STA training shown across FY13–FY23 with a combined trend of actual STA face-to-face training and projection of online training (chart axis FY13 through FY23).

### Statistical Information Management (SIM)
- Module M4 will:
  - Provide advice on statistical information management practices and related technical environments.
  - Support statistical information management as part of the D4D modular approach (timing and specific activities phased across FY2019–FY2023).

*Christine Dieterich, Division Chief, IMF Statistics Department (STA); Work Plan presentation, June 22, 2018 (D4D Fund / IMF Statistics Department).*

### Section 2

### presentation-work-plan - Section 2

### Objective
- Objective of 50% increase from FY18

### Strategic Outcomes
- The key outcome of this module is increased staff capacity through a new structured online learning curriculum that will enhance the reach of statistics training.
- Pre-D4D Funddevelopment of basic online course is close to completion.
- Under the D4D Fund, eight fundamental STA courses will be rolled out and available online 24/7/365.
- Technology will deepen absorptive capacity for TA mission work.
- Online training will spur positive externalities beyond macroeconomic statistics—which is essential for SDGs.
- A broader and more diverse audience will have access to statistics training.

### Economic Rationale
- MCD: 2 TA missions
- Disseminate and facilitate implementation of best practices in statistical data and metadata management and related frameworks established by the international community. This includes:
  - Transferring knowledge on governance structures;
  - Providing information on suitable technical standards and statistical information models; and
  - Advice on project design.

### Statistical Information Management — Activities and Expected Impacts
- To facilitate the use and dissemination of statistical data, this module will assist statistical offices, central banks, and ministries of finance to improve data management practices and infrastructure by:
  - Streamlining, standardizing, and automating data management, with the goal to enhance countries’ ability to compile and disseminate macroeconomic and financial statistics; and
  - Improving statistical data and metadata lifecycle management and related frameworks, including tools needed for effective statistical information management and information on technical standards and statistical information models.

---


_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/capacity-developement/d4d/presentation-work-plan.pdf_