## Mid-term review of Phase II of the Managing Natural Resource Wealth Trust Fund (MNRW-II) — Executive summary

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### Overview
- Mid-term review of Phase II covering progress to September 2021; evaluation conducted July 2021–May 2022 and covers January 2017 to September 2021.
- MNRW-TF: multi-partner Trust Fund established in 2011 by the IMF to build capacity in low- and lower-middle income countries in managing wealth from oil, gas and mining.
- Overseen by a Steering Committee (SC) of IMF and donor staff; endowed with an approximate budget of $30M.
- Mid-term review rating: 3 (a “good” in the IMF Results Based Management Framework scale).
- Notable progress despite the Covid-19 pandemic and absorption capacity challenges in LICs.

### Relevance
- Overall: TF has high relevance to key resource management challenges.
- Module-specific note: Module 4 (monetary and macroprudential policy and central bank operations) was found disconnected from management challenges posed by large and unpredictable resource revenue-related cash flows.
- Prioritization and strategy:
  - MNRW-II interventions were highly relevant to evolving needs, but prioritization across themes within countries was not always clear.
  - Country strategies recommended to: clarify prioritization of workstreams and make explicit links to national development plans and assistance from other development partners.
- Climate change and gender:
  - Incipient focus on climate change and gender; scope narrow and acceleration—particularly on energy transition issues—identified as urgent.
  - Energy Subsidy MOOC (2018–2020): over 2,500 registered and around 350 completed; course expenditure 75k; pre- and post-course test data show learning gains but reform impact not confirmed.
  - Integration of carbon pricing into FARI introduced in 2020; STA collaboration with EITI to compile transition-tracking data.
  - Gender participation in ICD-led courses ranged from 16% to 33%; examples: FARI East Africa track 23% women; West Africa track 3% women; STA-GO workshops Africa 32% women; Middle East and Central Asia 40% women; Western Hemisphere 50% women; one STA-RE Middle East workshop 55% women.
  - IMF project leads and STXs in the sample predominantly male (12 project leads flagged; only one was a woman; all interviewed STXs were men).

### Coherence
- Internal coherence within MNRW and with broader IMF work was good, except for module 4.
- External coherence: good synergies with other development partners; need to resume in-person coordination meetings post-pandemic.
- Strength: systematic promotion of interagency coordination at country level supporting a “whole government” approach.
- FARI functioned as a unifying framework across FAD-led workstreams and informed broader IMF research (example: Fiscal Monitor: How to Mitigate Climate Change, October 2019).

### Effectiveness
- Evidence of effectiveness includes improvements in:
  - Beneficiary capacity, corroborated by improvements in knowledge tests and self-reported confidence.
  - Systems and processes, including building data and models supporting evidence-based policymaking.
  - Design and implementation of policies and laws.
- Beneficiaries rated IMF contribution to these achievements as high.
- FARI: IMF has had sizable influence on modeling practice in the sector.

### Efficiency
- Training and technical assistance generally high quality and well sequenced.
- TF adapted proactively to Covid-19 with virtual delivery appreciated but less effective than in-person assistance.
- TF spending lagging, mostly due to country circumstances and pandemic impacts; execution for the TF stands at 64% (as of September 2021).
- Budgeting practice improvements recommended to prevent inflated budgets and poor allocation of resources.
- Example budgetary outcomes:
  - STA-RE project initially budgeted $2,320k; final spending reported at 1,338k (58% of initial budget) with an underspend of $932k at project closure.
  - MCM project in a particular country spent 54% of the budget (211k of an initial allocation of 388k).

### Impact
- Translating gains into impact on economic development or poverty reduction is difficult due to attribution problems and time lags.
- Program generates multiplier effects on other players, amplifying MNRW-II gains and extending reach to more countries and beneficiaries (e.g., FARI uptake by other DPs and modelling communities).

### Sustainability
- Sustainability undermined by absorption capacity issues:
  - Limited financial resourcing.
  - Low staff capacity and staff turnover.
  - Limited ability to tap into and retain capable staff.
- Continuity of support necessary; recommendations include:
  - RCDCs to assume an advisory role around tax policy advice.
  - Move from short-term assistance to long-term support modalities.
  - Strengthen IMF HQ mission model to support country-level engagement between missions.
  - Scale use of peripatetic advisers—Phase II experience showed clear gains.

### Strategy and management
- Country eligibility applied with flexibility; assistance deployed outside LICs when justified—tradeoffs in maintaining an LIC focus should be considered by the SC.
- SC performing well but should refocus on strategic issues; SC facilitated global and country-level coordination with room for improvement in leveraging SC for coordination with the World Bank.

### Top 5 recommendations (in order of priority)
1. Climate change: IMF should develop a strategy paper for SC discussion with options to bolster MNRW focus on energy transition, mindful of TF comparative advantage and accounting for broader IMF climate work to harness synergies or establish clear demarcation.
2. Country strategies: Anchor rationale for choosing workstreams in country strategies that identify key policy gaps and action priorities, and align these with country development plans and other development partners or broader IMF work.
3. Continuity and capacity: Address limited financial resourcing, low staff capacity, and staff turnover by:
   - Ensuring continuity of support.
   - Having RCDCs assume an advisory role around tax policy advice.
   - Moving from short-term assistance to long-term support modalities.
   - Scaling peripatetic advisers where effective.
4. Steering Committee use: Make better use of the SC for strategic guidance by providing digestible information and key strategy questions for SC meetings and showing evidence of how SC inputs have been incorporated.
5. Budgeting and transparency: Increase transparency of budgeting and spending by:
   - Organizing spending reports along both project and functional lines and against revised and original budgets.
   - Reporting functional lines (e.g., staff costs, STX, workshops, travel) to clarify inputs/outputs absorbing financial resources.
   - Requiring project leads to explain any end-of-project reallocation that exceeds 20% of the original budget to mitigate inflated project budgets and late reallocations.

*Mid-term review of Phase II of the Managing Natural Resource Wealth Trust Fund (MNRW-II), progress to September 2021.*

### Evidence base and methodology (summary)
- Evaluation driven by OECD-DAC research questions plus SC strategy and management questions.
- Sample of 6 countries plus multi-country projects (FARI, MRC course, MCM-led, STA-led interventions).
- Documentation reviewed: proposals, progress reports, TA reports.
- Primary evidence:
  - 54 interviews with SC members, IMF staff, short-term experts, development partners, and beneficiary authority staff and leaders.
  - Two surveys: global partner survey with 21 complete/partial responses (57% response rate) and beneficiary survey with 34 complete/partial responses (28% response rate).
- Evaluators used IMF RBM guidance and a 4–1 rating scale (4 = excellent; 3 = good; 2 = modest; 1 = poor). Evaluator’s overall assessment for the Trust Fund sample: 2.70 (rounded to 3).

### Key quantitative evaluation-question scores (sample averages)
- Relevance: 3.44
- Coherence: 3.09
- Effectiveness: 2.47
- Efficiency: 2.63
- Impact: 2.33
- Sustainability: 2.23
- Total for sample (average): 2.70 (rounded 3.00)

### Project-level highlights (selected rounded overall scores)
- Tax Policy: Overall Rounded 3.00
- Revenue Administration: Overall Rounded 3.00
- Public Financial Management: Overall Rounded 3.00
- Monetary and Macroprudential Policy: Overall Rounded 2.00
- Central Bank Operations: Overall Rounded 2.00
- National Accounts Statistics: Overall Rounded 3.00
- Government Finance Statistics: Overall Rounded 3.00
- Training: Overall Rounded 3.00

### Conclusions and prioritized recommendations — ten actionable items

1. Climate change and energy transition
- Findings:
  - Climate change identified as the leading challenge; MNRW best equipped to address the “transition” pillar of IMF climate approach.
  - IMF action on energy transition via MNRW not yet sufficiently intentional; energy subsidy reform is a major area (IMF estimate cited: energy subsidies cost about USD six trillion a year).
- Recommendations:
  - Produce a strategy paper outlining direction on energy transition, efforts to bolster MNRW focus on climate in current and next phase, and explicit demarcation vis-à-vis broader IMF climate efforts.
  - Complete and publicly share the carbon pricing integration into FARI.
  - Strengthen STA work on data to monitor energy transitions, including EITI partnerships.
  - Advise on “green” budgeting under PFM workstreams.
  - Consider implications for eligibility criteria and priorities for Phase III.

2. Anchor workstream choices in country-wide assessments
- Findings:
  - Workstream choices not consistently anchored to broader country strategies or diagnostics.
- Recommendations:
  - Anchor workstream selection to country diagnostics that identify key governance issues; explain complementarity with other IMF/DP initiatives; account for broader societal forces; align with national reform priorities.
  - Apply approach to new proposals and elevate current practice in remainder of Phase II.

3. Address absorption capacity and continuity
- Findings:
  - Limited financial resourcing, low staff capacity, and staff turnover jeopardize gains.
- Recommendations:
  - Where other DPs cannot be leveraged, consider direct support such as peripatetic advisers available remotely and in person.
  - Strengthen linkage to RCDCs; RCDCs should advise on tax policy.
  - Make TA with CD value the default mode; reserve “traditional” TA for justified cases, recognizing CD-oriented TA requires longer timeframes and adequate resources.

4. Better use of the Steering Committee (SC)
- Findings:
  - SC can be used more strategically.
- Recommendations:
  - Orient SC meetings to surface advice on key strategic questions; provide digestible information and show how SC inputs are incorporated.
  - Use SC to oversee EV recommendations and invite World Bank to relevant meetings while IMF honors invitations to EGPS SC meetings.

5. Budget transparency and scrutiny
- Findings:
  - Current budget practice opaque and limits scrutiny.
- Recommendations:
  - Increase transparency: organize spending reports along project and functional lines; report execution against revised and original budgets and projected annual allocations.
  - Require justification for end-of-project reallocations exceeding 20% of original budget.
  - Provide transaction-level data to future evaluators.

6. Broaden uptake and outreach for FARI
- Findings:
  - Multiplier effects noted when other organizations use FARI; not all modelling organizations use it.
- Recommendations:
  - Conduct outreach to other modelers (example organizations cited in evaluation) and proactively share revisions of the mission model.
  - Proactively broach disclosure of country models with authorities to make models public goods.

7. Greater ambition and operationalization on gender
- Findings:
  - Current gender ambition limited and under-operationalized.
- Recommendations:
  - Frame clearer, realistic gender ambitions; maintain and report gender-disaggregated participant data with tactics to improve balance.
  - Showcase women leaders in courses and analyze gender composition of IMF experts and staff to expand expert pool.

8. Relevance and future of MCM work to resource governance
- Findings:
  - MCM relevance to resource governance tenuous and implementation weak.
- Recommendations:
  - Decide whether to discontinue MCM interventions before end of Phase II.
  - If continuing, ensure clear justification for MNRW funding and stronger linkage to resource governance and commodity price–induced monetary issues.
  - Revisit original MCM mandate to ensure alignment.

9. Strengthen training practice and consistency
- Findings:
  - Training practice strong but inconsistent; impact and efficiency can be improved.
- Recommendations:
  - Develop internal guidance for consistent training design and assessment; ICD to play a stronger advisory role.
  - Avoid one-off training unless part of longer learning journeys with needs assessments, pre-/post-course requirements, and mentorship.
  - Run pre- and post-course assessments consistently; send post-course surveys for all courses and share results with the SC.
  - Use global courses to support country CD with participant overlap and preparatory requirements.

10. Strengthen societal buy-in and protect reforms across political cycles
- Findings:
  - Political cycles can reverse reforms; IMF mandate limits engagement with broader societal actors.
- Recommendations:
  - Support governments in communicating reforms to broader actors to build multi-stakeholder consensus.
  - Persuade government counterparts tactfully on benefits of broader disclosure and transparency.
  - Leverage existing multi-stakeholder mechanisms to support reform protection.

*External mid-term evaluation report for MNRW II — CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS.*

*External mid-term evaluation report: MNRW-II (September 27, 2022).*

### Executive summary ......................................................................................................

### Executive summary

### Overview
- The document is the mid-term review of Phase II of the Managing Natural Resource Wealth Trust Fund (MNRW-II), covering progress to September 2021.
- The MNRW-TF is a multi-partner fund established in 2011 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to build capacity in low- and lower-middle income countries in managing wealth from oil, gas and mining.
- The TF is overseen by a Steering Committee (SC) comprising IMF and key donor staff and is endowed with an approximate budget of $30M.
- The mid-term review rates the TF a 3 (a “good” in the IMF Results Based Management Framework scale), noting notable progress despite the Covid-19 pandemic and absorption capacity challenges in LICs.

### Relevance
- The TF has high relevance to key resource management challenges overall.
- Module 4 (monetary and macroprudential policy and central bank operations) was found disconnected from the specific management challenges posed by large and often unpredictable resource revenue-related cash flows.
- MNRW-II interventions were highly relevant to evolving needs of target authorities, but prioritization across themes within countries was not always clear.
- Country strategies are recommended to:
  - Clarify prioritization of workstreams.
  - Make explicit links to national development plans and assistance from other development partners.
- The TF has seen incipient focus on climate change and gender, but the scope has been narrow; acceleration—particularly on energy transition issues—is identified as urgent.

### Coherence
- Internal coherence within MNRW and with broader IMF work (not funded by the TF) was good, except for module 4.
- External coherence showed good synergies with other development partners, with areas for improvement:
  - Need to resume in-person coordination meetings with key players after the pandemic.
- A key strength is systematic promotion of interagency coordination at the country level, supporting a “whole government” approach to interrelated governance challenges.

### Effectiveness
- Evidence of effectiveness includes improvements in:
  - Beneficiary capacity, corroborated by improvements in knowledge tests.
  - Systems and processes, notably building data and models that support evidence-based policymaking.
  - Design and implementation of policies and laws.
- Beneficiaries rated the IMF contribution to these achievements as high.
- Through FARI, the IMF has had a sizable influence on modeling practice in the sector.

### Efficiency
- Training and technical assistance were of high quality and well sequenced overall.
- The TF made proactive adjustments to the onset of the Covid pandemic; virtual delivery was appreciated but did not match in-person assistance effectiveness.
- TF spending is lagging, mostly due to country circumstances and pandemic impacts.
- Improvements recommended in budgeting practice to prevent inflated budgets that lead to poor allocation of resources.

### Impact
- Despite progress in resource management, translating these gains into impact on economic development or poverty reduction is difficult due to attribution problems and lags.
- The program generates important multiplier effects on other players, amplifying MNRW-II gains and extending reach to more countries and beneficiaries.

### Sustainability
- Sustainability is undermined by absorption capacity issues:
  - Limited financial resourcing.
  - Low staff capacity and staff turnover.
  - Limited ability to tap into and retain capable staff.
- Continuity of support is necessary; this calls for:
  - RCDCs to assume an advisory role around tax policy advice (the bulk of MNRW assistance).
  - A move from short-term assistance to long-term support modalities.
  - Strengthening the IMF HQ mission model to support country-level engagement between missions.
- The use of peripatetic advisers under Phase II showed clear gains.

### Strategy and management
- The TF applied country eligibility criteria with flexibility and deployed assistance outside LICs where a case could be made; tradeoffs in maintaining an LIC focus should be considered by the SC.
- The SC is performing well but a refocus on strategic issues is important to IMF and donor representatives.
- The SC has facilitated global and country-level coordination; further improvements include better leveraging the SC for coordination with the World Bank.

### Top 5 recommendations (in order of priority)
1. Climate change: The IMF should develop a strategy paper for SC discussion with options to bolster MNRW focus on energy transition, mindful of the TF comparative advantage and accounting for broader IMF climate work to harness synergies or establish clear demarcation.
2. Country strategies: Anchor rationale for choosing workstreams in country strategies that identify key policy gaps and action priorities, and align these with country development plans and other development partners or broader IMF work.
3. Continuity and capacity: Address limited financial resourcing, low staff capacity, and staff turnover by:
   - Ensuring continuity of support.
   - Having RCDCs assume an advisory role around tax policy advice.
   - Moving from short-term assistance to long-term support modalities.
   - Scaling peripatetic advisers where effective.
4. Steering Committee use: Make better use of the SC for strategic guidance by providing digestible information and key strategy questions for SC meetings and showing evidence of how SC inputs have been incorporated.
5. Budgeting and transparency: Increase transparency of budgeting and spending by:
   - Organizing spending reports along both project and functional lines and against revised and original budgets.
   - Reporting functional lines (e.g., staff costs, STX, workshops, travel) to clarify which inputs/outputs absorb financial resources.
   - Requiring project leads to explain any end-of-project reallocation that exceeds 20% of the original budget to mitigate inflated project budgets and late reallocations.

*Mid-term review of Phase II of the Managing Natural Resource Wealth Trust Fund (MNRW-II), progress to September 2021.*

### INTRODUCTION

### INTRODUCTION

### Overview
- The mid-term review of the Managing Natural Resource Wealth Phase II (MNRW-II) was conducted between July 2021 and May 2022 and covers the period January 2017 to September 2021.
- MNRW-II has been under implementation since 2017 until 2024 and is endowed with a budget of around $30 million.
- The Trust Fund received contributions from Australia, the European Union, the Netherlands, Norway, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.
- The IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department provides overall coordination; representatives from donor governments and IMF staff sit on the Trust Fund’s steering committee (SC) to provide oversight and strategic guidance.

### Scope, methodology, and evidence base
- The evaluation was driven by OECD-DAC research questions and additional strategy and management questions from the SC.
- A sample of 6 countries was reviewed, covering projects across the different MNRW-II workstreams, plus a sample of multi-country projects: Fiscal Analysis of Resource Industries (FARI), Macroeconomic Management in Resource-Rich Countries course (MRC course), MCM-led interventions, and STA-led interventions.
- Documentation reviewed included proposals, progress reports, and TA reports.
- Primary evidence sources:
  - 54 interviews with SC members, IMF staff, short-term experts, development partners, and beneficiary authority staff and leaders.
  - Two surveys: a global partner survey with 21 complete/partial responses (57% response rate) and a beneficiary survey with 34 complete/partial responses (28% response rate).
- The evaluators applied IMF results-based management (RBM) guidance and used a 4–1 rating scale (4 = excellent; 3 = good; 2 = modest; 1 = poor) to evaluate questions and workstreams. Effectiveness ratings were informed by IMF logframe ratings.
- Interviews were conducted under confidentiality with no direct attribution. The report does not identify sample countries.

### Coverage and program structure
- Around 21 countries received assistance in Phase II: Bolivia, Cameroon, Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ghana, The Gambia, Guyana, Kenya, Liberia, Mauritania, Mongolia, Mozambique, Myanmar, Niger, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Senegal, Solomon Islands, Uganda, and Uzbekistan.
- MNRW-II is articulated around five interlinked modules:
  1. Fiscal regimes, licensing, and contracting
  2. Revenue administration
  3. Macro-fiscal, public financial management, and expenditure policy
  4. Exchange rate regimes and macroprudential policies
  5. Statistics for managing natural resources
- The program combines analytical work (research, handbooks, templates, modelling tools) with country-level capacity development (technical assistance, workshops, conferences) and multi-country interventions (courses, workshops).

### Overall assessment and workstream ratings
- Evaluator’s overall assessment for the Trust Fund in the sample is 2.70 (rounded to 3 or “good”).
- The highest scoring workstream in the sample is training (noting impact and sustainability were N/D for multi-country training), and national accounts statistics scores highly; central bank operations scores the lowest.
- Average evaluation-question scores for the sample:
  - Relevance: 3.44
  - Coherence: 3.09
  - Effectiveness: 2.47
  - Efficiency: 2.63
  - Impact: 2.33
  - Sustainability: 2.23
  - Total for sample (average): 2.70 (rounded 3.00)
- Project-level workstream scores (average and rounded overall shown):
  - Tax Policy (6 projects, 9 objectives): Relevance 3.56; Coherence 3.33; Effectiveness 2.89; Efficiency 2.89; Impact 2.67; Sustainability 2.44; Overall (average) 2.96; Overall Rounded 3.00
  - Revenue Administration (4 projects, 10 objectives): Relevance 3.50; Coherence 3.00; Effectiveness 2.60; Efficiency 2.80; Impact 2.20; Sustainability 2.30; Overall (average) 2.73; Overall Rounded 3.00
  - Public Financial Management (3 projects, 7 objectives): Relevance 3.57; Coherence 3.57; Effectiveness 2.14; Efficiency 2.29; Impact 2.14; Sustainability 2.00; Overall (average) 2.62; Overall Rounded 3.00
  - Monetary and Macroprudential Policy (1 project, 2 objectives): Relevance 2.00; Coherence 1.50; Effectiveness 1.50; Efficiency 2.00; Impact 2.00; Sustainability 2.00; Overall (average) 1.75; Overall Rounded 2.00
  - Central Bank Operations (1 project, 1 objective): Relevance 3.00; Coherence 2.00; Effectiveness 1.00; Efficiency 1.00; Impact 1.00; Sustainability 1.00; Overall (average) 1.50; Overall Rounded 2.00
  - National Accounts Statistics (1 project, 1 objective): Relevance 4.00; Coherence 3.00; Effectiveness 3.00; Efficiency 3.00; Impact 3.00; Sustainability 2.00; Overall (average) 3.00; Overall Rounded 3.00
  - Government Finance Statistics (1 project, 1 objective): Relevance 3.00; Coherence 3.00; Effectiveness 2.00; Efficiency 3.00; Impact 3.00; Sustainability 3.00; Overall (average) 2.83; Overall Rounded 3.00
  - Training (1 project, 1 objective): Relevance 4.00; Coherence 3.00; Effectiveness 3.00; Efficiency 3.00; Impact N/D; Sustainability N/D; Overall (average) 3.25; Overall Rounded 3.00
- Total for sample (aggregated averages): Relevance 3.44; Coherence 3.09; Effectiveness 2.47; Efficiency 2.63; Impact 2.33; Sustainability 2.23; Overall 2.70; Total for sample (rounded) 3 3 2 3 2 2

### Relevance — key findings
- Relevance consistently scores high across workstreams (ratings between 3 and 4), except for Monetary and Macroprudential Policy (module 4), which scores lower.
- MNRW-II interventions were found highly relevant to the needs of target authorities and link conceptually to UN SDGs (notably Goal 17, Target 17.1).
- Department-specific relevance:
  - FAD’s tax policy work helps diagnose and improve fiscal regimes.
  - Revenue administration work helps identify and manage tax administration risks.
  - PFM work supports improved resource revenue forecasting and assessment of compliance with fiscal rules or special funds.
  - STA aims to improve statistical data critical to evidence-based policymaking.
  - FARI integrates work across modules 1–3 and can leverage module 5 data.
- Module 4 (Monetary and Macroprudential Policy; Central Bank Operations) exhibited a tenuous link to core resource governance; much module 4 work focused on monetary policy communications and was conducted in countries not highly dependent on natural resource export earnings.
- Consultation and alignment:
  - FAD made concerted use of scoping missions to build/verify demand and develop needs assessments with roadmaps and milestones.
  - STA leveraged regional workshops to observe and assess support needs.
  - Instances of weak client buy-in were observed where offers of additional assistance met with simple acquiescence and later implementation delays.
  - Project proposals generally provide workstream-level rationale but lack comprehensive analysis of strategic choices among competing workstreams; country-wide resource governance diagnostics (e.g., linking with TADAT and PEFA where feasible) were recommended to strengthen strategic focus.
- Responsiveness to baseline capacity:
  - Country-level CD with strong training components often used comprehensive skills gap assessments and training plans; peripatetic advisers supported tailored, responsive support.
  - Multi-country workshops: FAD-led FARI workshops included pre-course requirements (e.g., excel, modelling concepts); STA-GO workshops lacked pre-course requirements and inconsistent baseline assessments, producing mismatches between technical content and participant capacity and language barriers in mixed-language workshops.
  - Recommendation: run capacity assessments or pre-course requirements before all future in-person workshops.
- Relevance to climate change:
  - MNRW-II’s ambitions on energy transition were modest initially but the program supported:
    - An Energy Subsidy MOOC (2018–2020): over 2,500 registered and around 350 completed; course expenditure was 75k; pre- and post-course test data show clear learning gains but impact on actual reform was not confirmed.
    - Integration of carbon pricing into FARI fiscal regime analysis (introduced in 2020), including work on a model for the LNG sector.
    - STA collaboration with EITI to compile data to track energy transition pathways.
  - Surveys indicate demand for additional assistance, especially from producers concerned about investment costs and stranded assets; SC suggests accelerating CD on climate change issues.
- Relevance to gender:
  - The TF had a modest gender focus conceptually (support for gender-disaggregated employment data) and practically tracked women’s participation in courses.
  - No evidence was found that the TF aided compilation of gender-disaggregated employment data in sample countries due to poor quality of labour statistics.
  - Reported women participation rates in ICD-led courses ranged from 16% to 33%; selected workshop participation examples:
    - FARI East Africa track: 23% women; West Africa track: 3% women.
    - STA-GO workshops: Africa 32% women; Middle East and Central Asia 40% women; Western Hemisphere 50% women.
    - One STA-RE Middle East workshop: 55% women.
  - IMF project leads and STXs in the evaluation sample were predominantly male (12 project leads flagged; only one was a woman; all interviewed STXs were men).
  - Opportunities exist to increase women’s participation (e.g., targeted outreach, platforming women leaders), especially in ICD-led courses where the stakeholder pool is broader.

### Coherence — key findings
- Coherence scores are generally high (ratings ≥ 3) except for Monetary and Macroprudential Policy and Central Bank Operations (ratings around 2 for internal coherence).
- Coherence within MNRW:
  - FARI served as a unifying framework for FAD-led tax policy, revenue administration, and PFM work, enabling mission planning and internal collaboration.
  - Cross-departmental collaboration occurred: FAD and STA contributed modules for the MRC course; FARI materials were adapted for online use when in-person activities were suspended.
  - Identified areas to strengthen: ICD input into regional workshops led by other departments and greater use of MOOCs for country-level CD.
- Coherence with non-MNRW IMF interventions:
  - Conceptual coherence maintained with IMF analytical frameworks (e.g., SDT aligned with GFSM 2014).
  - FARI informed broader IMF research (e.g., Fiscal Monitor: How to Mitigate Climate Change, October 2019).
  - Good collaboration with RCDCs on revenue administration, PFM, and national accounts statistics in several countries; in reviewed instances no duplication was found and responsibilities were delineated.
  - Good coordination with IMF surveillance activities, including input into surveillance missions and alignment with Article IV recommendations.
- Fostering client-side coherence:
  - IMF promoted interagency coordination via interagency teams in FAD-led and STA-led work; these teams generally worked well and in some instances MOUs helped clarify responsibilities.
  - Interagency coordination remained IMF-dependent in some cases; one isolated case showed limited coordination between tax policy and revenue administration counterparts.
  - STA-GO promoted coordination among national statistical offices, ministries of finance, ministries of natural resources, and EITI national secretariats; participants valued inter-agency cooperation to reduce siloed operations.
- External coherence with development partners:
  - Overall good coordination with development partners, though improvements are possible in anchoring IMF interventions conceptually to other DPs at design stage.
  - Global-level coordination: SC served as a vehicle for coordination; FAD consulted industry actors and think tanks on FARI but did not systematically include some DPs that use modeling (e.g., World Bank, IGF).
  - STA-GO coordinated with the EITI secretariat in workshops; some planned STA partnerships did not materialize.
  - Factors affecting coordination quality included COVID-19 impacts on in-person coordination, IMF rules on deferral of TA report dissemination to clients, and instances where clients requested IMF non-coordination with other DPs.

### Effectiveness — key findings
- TF effectiveness is rated 2 overall in the evaluation project sample (the reviewer notes the perfect average for the TF is 2.47).
- Evaluator ratings generally track with IMF objective ratings where available (4 instances compared), with some cases of recent TF progress not yet captured in logframes.
- Evidence of results:
  - Capacity-level: new agencies built and supported; staff and leaders report improved confidence and ability to perform roles using data and models for forecasts, audits, and oversight.
  - Systems and processes: improved intergovernmental coordination, data collection, and model development to inform policymaking.
  - Policy-level: development of new policies or laws, amendments to existing laws, and development of implementation rules necessary for law application.
- Beneficiaries reported that many changes would not have been possible without IMF support.

*Source: Mid-term review of the Managing Natural Resource Wealth Trust Fund Phase II (MNRW-II), conducted July 2021–May 2022.*

### Box 1 provides a summary of salient MNRW-II achievements. It is noted that results were not even across

### Box 1 — Summary of salient MNRW-II achievements

### Key findings on achievements and implementation

- Results were not even across target countries and some countries fared better than others.
- Delays have been observed in delivering milestones, but these are largely explained by country-specific circumstances.

*External mid-term evaluation report: MNRW-II (September 27, 2022).*

### Box 1 – Examples of salient achievements

### Box 1 – Examples of salient achievements

### Salient achievements — tax policy, revenue administration, PFM, cross-cutting
- On tax policy:
  - Modelling expertise developed in government for independent revenue forecasting and related decision-making.
  - Approval of revised tax or general extractive sector legislation in line with good practice and/or ensuring consistency of rules for all extractive projects.
- On revenue administration:
  - Detailed assessment of capacity gaps and bespoke mentoring plans for improved revenue administration.
  - Development of in-house expertise for resource sector tax audits, including via the development of new specialised resource industry tax administration units.
  - Development of risk matrix to define and identify key risks as a way of informing and focusing compliance management.
- On PFM:
  - Revised organisational structures that supports better medium-term budgeting.
  - Detailed annual calendar for the preparation of the macro-budgetary framework.
  - Mandatory requirements to prepare cash flow and expenditure commitment plans.
  - Consolidation of intergenerational resource funds into national budget.
- Cross-cutting:
  - Improved statistical data compilation for evidence-based policy decisions.
  - Improved coordination between different agencies, including through MOUs spelling out respective roles and protocols for sharing of information.
  - FARI is now used by a host of DPs to inform their work and advice to governments, civil society and other stakeholders in MNRW countries and beyond, with evidence of strong multiplier effects.

### Learning gains — test-score evidence for selected workshops
- Participant knowledge tests show tangible learning gains after training; FAD used these tests to inform program adaptation.
- Reported pre- and post-course test outcomes (selected workshops sampled by the evaluator):
  - 2020-21 virtual face-to-face MRC (ICD): Self-reporting, no verification. Aggregate for 3 courses. Pre-course: Not available. Post-course: Not available. Change: +16 percentage points.
  - 2020-21 self-paced MRC (ICD): Self-reporting, no verification. Aggregate for 2 courses. Pre-course: Not available. Post-course: Not available. Change: +14 percentage points.
  - 2020 FARI workshop 2, remote (FAD): Raw data and analysis verified by evaluator. Pre-course: 49%. Post-course: 67%. Change: +18 percentage points.
  - 2020 FARI workshop 3, remote (FAD): Raw data and analysis verified by evaluator. Pre-course: 32%. Post-course: 44%. Change: +12 percentage points.
  - March 2019 MCD workshop at CEF (STARE): Raw data and analysis verified by evaluator. Pre-course: 34%. Post-course: 44%. Change: +10 percentage points.
  - November 2019 MCD JVI workshop at CEF (STARE): Raw data and analysis verified by evaluator. Pre-course: 43%. Post-course: 62%. Change: +19 percentage points.
- Benchmarks and interpretation:
  - ICD benchmarks: a 15 percentage points progression between capture points and a minimum of 60 percent on the post-course test. A 15 percentage points progression was achieved in half of trainings reviewed; a minimum of 60 percent on post-course was achieved in half of workshops reviewed.
  - FAD analysis: learning gains were more sizable on multiple choice questions (example: third workshop MCQs from 37% to 57%) and more marginal for questions requiring calculations (example: third workshop calculations from 14% to 17%); this informed FAD’s focus on strengthening modelling and Excel capacity.

### CD value of TA
- The evaluation distinguishes “traditional TA” (IMF delivers outputs with limited beneficiary involvement) from TA with hands-on capacity development (IMF works with beneficiaries to build capacity while delivering outputs).
- The review notes instances where legislation was primarily developed by IMF experts with beneficiaries engaged only at review stage; it suggests reversing roles where feasible to strengthen beneficiary skills and ownership.
- Recommendation: “traditional” TA should be the exception; criteria should drive explicit analysis on when pure TA is justified, recognizing CD-oriented TA requires greater IMF resources and longer timeframes.

### Efficiency — evaluator ratings and key issues
- Overall evaluator efficiency rating: 3.
- Workstream ratings: most rounded 3; Public Financial Management rated 2.29 (rounded down to 2); Monetary and Macroprudential Policy Central Bank Operations workstreams rate low due to follow-up and spending issues.
- Budgeting, spending & reporting:
  - Execution for the TF stands at 64% (as of September 2021).
  - The program is underspending, largely due to COVID-19 and country circumstances; IMF projections suggest the TF will spend the remainder of funding by end of this phase in FY2024 (but underlying assumptions were not made available).
  - Select project budget examples:
    - STA-RE project initially budgeted $2,320k for six regional workshops and 12 TA missions; later reduced by ~207k following partial reallocation to STA-GO. Final spending reported at 1,338k; this is 58% of the initial budget with an underspend of $932k at project closure.
    - MCM project in a particular country spent 54% of the budget (211k of an initial allocation of 388k).
  - Some reallocations only took place at project closure; a handful of reallocations could have been done earlier.
  - Current IMF spending reporting practice is described as opaque: budgets are created by finance using project managers’ activity inputs; spending reports present execution against the most recent reallocation (initial allocations removed), which limits scrutiny.
  - Recommendation: future budgets should present spending against both original and amended allocations; IMF should share more detailed budget data (approvals and spending by budget function and list of transactions) for future evaluations.

### Quality of TA and training
- Quality of TA:
  - IMF TA is assessed as rigorous, practical, timely and reform-oriented.
  - TA reports shared were of sound quality, combining rigour and practical recommendations.
  - Survey results: IMF assistance regarded as superior to that of other development partners; TA missions are the most favored engagement channel for country beneficiaries.
  - Areas for improvement: more realistic delivery timeframes and better follow-up on TA reports (specific gap in one MCM-led intervention).
- Quality of training:
  - IMF practice in design, delivery and assessment of workshops is sound but inconsistent across departments; an institutional gap exists for advising and monitoring rigour in training design and assessment.
  - Strengths: use of multiple teaching methods (lectures, exercises, discussions, participant-led presentations, case studies); end-of-workshop satisfaction surveys rate around 4.4/5 and above (select FAD, STA, ICD interventions).
  - Inconsistencies noted:
    - Choice of incremental vs. one-off training varies; FAD provides staged training series while STA-led regional workshops were often one-off events.
    - Inconsistent application of knowledge tests: FAD, STA-RE and ICD used pre- and post-course tests; STA-GO did not, despite this being a key progress indicator.
  - Recommendation: stagger learning journeys, combine training with pre- and post-course requirements and follow-up support where possible; ICD guidance exists on assessing training but has limited advisory role on curriculum design and needs assessment.

### Sequencing, synergies, remote delivery
- Sequencing and synergies:
  - Sequencing of activities is sound: analytical tools/frameworks developed in Phase I informed applied work in Phase II (examples: Guide to Analyse Natural Resources in National Accounts, template tables, EITI Summary Data Template, FARI).
  - Training built baseline knowledge to make TA more effective and to catalyse beneficiary demand for country TA.
  - Example of cross-fertilization: participation in the MRC course led to development of a complex country CD package.
  - IMF extended reach beyond MNRW by inviting participants from outside eligible country list to global courses/workshops (ICD MOOCs, STA-RE regional workshops), stimulating peer learning.
  - Opportunity: strengthen alignment of global courses with country-level CD; evidence shows only 3 out of 99 officials in the evaluator’s interview/sample list attended ICD-led global workshops (2018–2020), suggesting scope to better link global offerings to country work (e.g., minimum participant overlap, use of ICD offerings as entry-level requirements or refreshers).
- Remote delivery:
  - IMF proactively moved to remote delivery during the pandemic (remote TA, blended curricula, MOOC modules, video material) but remote delivery did not deliver comparable results to in-person.
  - Example: 70% of participants did not complete the remote sessions of the FARI regional workshop for Anglophone Africa.
  - Factors limiting remote uptake: beneficiary distractions, technical difficulties, strong preference for in-person intensive engagement, difficulty building trust when staff turnover occurs.
  - Recommendation: return to in-person delivery while integrating lessons from virtual delivery; deliver some preparatory or follow-up content remotely to make in-person time more productive.

### Impact — evaluator ratings and observed outcomes
- Overall evaluator impact rating: 2.
- Progress observed at workstream level: more visible in tax policy (possible better laws for extractives), national accounts (better data leading to GDP rebasing), and government finance interventions (data informing EITI data collection).
- Examples and evidence:
  - Anecdotal evidence of improved tax collection in one country in the sample potentially attributable to IMF CD.
  - High-quality training and relevance of professionals trained support conversion of learning gains to improved professional practice.
  - Recommendation: consider alumni surveys 1 year after training (and repeated over time) to capture emerging results; ICD already uses alumni follow-up in some practice and results could be mainstreamed.

### Multiplier effects and reach
- Coherence with external frameworks and partnerships increased multiplier effects:
  - STA-GO partnership with EITI and EITI adoption of the SDT led to EITI providing GFSM2014 training/mentorship to all EITI implementing countries, extending STA-GO’s reach.
  - FARI influenced other organizations and helped create an extractive modelling community; evidence of FARI informing Open Oil’s work in Guyana, NRGI’s work in Tunisia and IFG’s model-driven assistance; World Bank and African Development Bank are also taking up FARI.
- Opportunity: IMF can be more intentional in outreach to other players leveraging modelling and in country-level discussion about disclosing models to build multi-stakeholder consensus and transparency.

### Sustainability — ratings, constraints, and continuity options
- Overall sustainability rating: 2. Government finance rates a 3 (due to EITI's role); other workstreams rate in the range of 2.
- Factors undermining sustainability:
  - Staff capacity, resourcing and staff retention are main constraints.
  - Evidence of trained staff turnover, often poached by private sector or other institutions offering higher remuneration.
  - FAD considered proposing job retention schemes, but these are difficult given civil service pay scales.
- Absorption capacity and continuity of support:
  - Continuous support over more years than short-term projects is needed in low-capacity contexts.
  - Capacity assessments should be part of project preparation with skill gaps clearly defined and presented to client governments.
  - Limitations of the IMF “CD (or TA) mission model” noted: where baseline capacity is low or commitment weak, mission model struggles; in some cases meaningful progress required IMF staff physically in-country.
- Options and innovations to improve continuity and sustainability:
  - Embedding IMF interventions in the work of players with in-country presence (e.g., EU on PFM, embedded fellows/secondments like ODI fellows).
  - Expanding support from RCDCs across workstreams; RCDCs provided backstopping on revenue administration, PFM and national accounts, but tax policy remains HQ-delivered and lack of specialized tax policy field staff is a gap.
  - Deploying peripatetic advisers where continuous support and mentoring is needed; example: an appointed peripatetic advisor supported trust building, capacity gap observation, and targeted capacity development planning. Consideration is underway to deploy additional RCDC peripatetic advisers on a regional basis.

### Protecting reforms across political cycles
- Changes in governments and political directions can reverse reforms; at least one country in the review experienced reversal of IMF-supported reforms after a new political leadership took office.
- Limitation: IMF’s mandate and nonpartisan stance limit engagement with broader societal actors (parliaments, independent institutes, civil society) that influence policy and can help protect reforms.
- Recommendation: IMF can play a stronger role in helping governments better communicate the importance and substance of reforms to build broader societal buy-in; ensure other actors in the development ecosystem engage with the public to support reform protection.

### Strategy and management — country eligibility and Steering Committee (SC)
- Country eligibility:
  - Priority accorded to resource-rich LICs and lower-middle income countries (LMICs) but process allowed exceptions (including upper middle income EITI implementers).
  - Majority of SC members supportive of broadening eligibility to include middle income countries; no consensus and some members stress continued focus on LICs/LMICs.
  - Considerations suggested: introduce additional criteria (vulnerability to shocks, climate lens/energy transition support, producers of critical minerals).
  - SC deliberation recommended on whether to establish or maintain a priority list.
- Steering Committee guidance and coordination:
  - Positive appreciation of SC role and information level; survey: 8 of 10 responses favorable on SC role.
  - Suggestions for improvement:
    - Presentation and type of information: use visuals to summarize key data; surface results and case studies.
    - Access to information: simplify access to donor portal and flag new information.
    - Strategic focus: IMF should table its own strategic issues for SC discussion and be more forthcoming on program/country challenges.
    - Responsiveness: demonstrate how SC comments have been taken on board.
  - SC as vehicle for donor coordination:
    - Data suggest room to better leverage SC for global and country-level coordination; only half of respondents agreed SC facilitated global coordination and most neither agreed nor disagreed about country-level coordination.
    - Suggestions: more systematic mission briefings/debriefings for DPs; IMF staff should be more proactive in outreach to DPs.
    - Coordination with World Bank: IMF invited WB to two SC meetings; WB invitations to IMF events (EGPS) have not been accepted by IMF. Recommendation: both IMF and World Bank should attend respective TFs SC meetings to strengthen information sharing and coordination.

*Reported by the external mid-term evaluation (MNRW-II).*

### CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

### CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

### Overall assessment
- The MNRW is making an important contribution to lifting the quality of governance in resource-rich low and lower-middle income countries.
- The focus on interrelated policy challenges creates a comprehensive assistance package aligned with the IMF’s comparative advantage, rooted in high quality guidance, frameworks, models and analysis.
- IMF work is clearly demarcated from the work of others and, where possible, synergies with other development partners have been created.
- Important progress is noted, but continued focus is needed to bring capacity investments to long-term sustainability given low baselines and absorption capacity issues jeopardizing CD absorption.
- The review produces ten actionable recommendations in order of priority that can be implemented in the remainder of phase II.

### 1. Climate change and energy transition
Findings
- Climate change is identified as the leading challenge and MNRW is best equipped to address the “transition” pillar of the IMF’s climate approach (mitigation, adaptation and transition).
- Positive initiatives exist, but IMF action on energy transition via MNRW is not yet sufficiently intentional.
- Far more could be done on energy subsidy reform; IMF estimates (before recent price surges) that energy subsidies cost about USD six trillion a year.

Recommendations
- Produce a strategy paper outlining direction of travel on energy transition, efforts to bolster MNRW focus on climate in the current phase and next phase, and explicit demarcation of broader IMF climate efforts to ensure synergies or clear division of labor.
- Complete and publicly share the carbon pricing integration into FARI.
- Strengthen STA work on collecting and using data to monitor energy transitions, including partnerships with the EITI.
- Under PFM workstreams, advise on “green” budgeting, including for infrastructure projects funded by taxes on natural resources.
- Consider implications of Steering Committee debates and potential phase III design changes for eligibility criteria and priorities.

### 2. Anchoring workstream choices in country-wide assessments
Findings
- Choice of workstreams at country level is not consistently anchored to broader country strategies or diagnostics.

Recommendations
- Anchor workstream selection to country diagnostics that:
  - identify key resource governance issues and gaps;
  - explain how MNRW work builds on or complements other IMF initiatives or other development partners;
  - account for broader societal forces beyond governments; and
  - align with national reform priorities.
- Apply this approach to new proposals and use the remainder of phase II to elevate current practice.

### 3. Absorption capacity undermines program gains
Findings
- Limited financial resourcing, low staff capacity, and staff turnover jeopardize program gains.
- Continuity of support is necessary, especially in low-capacity contexts; HQ/expert missions alone are insufficient.

Recommendations
- Where IMF cannot leverage other development partners, consider providing direct support such as a peripatetic adviser available remotely and in person for responsive support.
- Strengthen linkage to RDCDs; RCDCs should assume an advisory role around tax policy advice.
- Make TA with CD value the default mode of CD unless a case for pure TA can be made—this requires longer implementation timeframes and adequate resources.

### 4. Better use of the Steering Committee (SC)
Findings
- The TF can make better strategic use of the Steering Committee for guidance.

Recommendations
- Orient SC meetings toward surfacing advice on key challenges, policy or strategy questions the IMF is grappling with.
- Provide key questions, digestible information to inform SC feedback, and updates on how SC inputs have been taken on board.
- Use the SC to oversee that EV recommendations are addressed in the remainder of phase II.
- Invite the World Bank to attend all relevant meetings and ensure IMF honor of invitations to attend EGPS SC meetings.

### 5. Budget transparency and scrutiny
Findings
- Current IMF/MNRW budget practice is opaque and prevents meaningful scrutiny.

Recommendations
- Increase transparency of budgeting and spending.
- Immediately organize spending reports along both project and functional lines.
- Report execution against revised and original budgets, and against projected annual allocations.
- Require project leads to explain any end-of-project reallocation that exceeds 20% of the original budget.
- Provide future evaluators with transaction data for meaningful analysis.

### 6. Broaden uptake of FARI
Findings
- Significant multiplier effects were noted when other organizations use FARI, but not all modeling organizations currently use it.

Recommendations
- Conduct concerted outreach to other modelers (for example OfD, GIZ and WB staff and experts, ODI fellows), proactively share revisions of the mission model, and involve them in future strategy discussions to build collective buy-in.
- Proactively broach disclosure of country models with country authorities so models can become public goods that inform other players and societal forces.

### 7. Greater ambition on gender
Findings
- Current gender ambition is limited and could be made more explicit and operational.

Recommendations
- Frame clearer, realistic ambitions around gender.
- Maintain collection of gender-disaggregated participant data and include these in progress reports with tactics to improve gender balance.
- Showcase leadership of women in courses (including as presenters).
- Analyze gender composition of IMF training and TA experts and staff to monitor internal imbalances and expand the IMF expert pool.

### 8. Relevance of MCM work to resource governance
Findings
- The relevance of MCM’s work to resource governance challenges is tenuous and its implementation has been weak.

Recommendations
- Decide whether to discontinue MCM interventions before the end of phase II.
- If continuing or resuming MCM work, ensure clear justification for MNRW funding and stronger linkage to resource governance and commodity price–induced monetary issues.
- Revisit original MCM mandate: “to support economic growth and financial stability by helping LICS to adapt their policy framework to large and unpredictable swings in commodity prices.”

### 9. Training practice: strengths, inconsistency, efficiency
Findings
- Training practice is good but inconsistent; efficiency and impact can be improved.

Recommendations
- Develop internal guidance to improve consistency in training; ICD may play a stronger role in familiarizing staff from other departments and monitoring adherence.
- Avoid one-off training unless integrated into longer learning journeys with needs assessments, pre- and post-course requirements, or mentorship to support incremental learning and application.
- Run pre- and post-course assessments consistently; send post-course surveys for all courses (including those not delivered by ICD) and share results with the SC.
- Leverage global courses to support country CD by preparing staff for in-depth training and refreshing knowledge over time.
- Regularly report in progress reports the extent to which global courses include staff involved in country CD.

### 10. Strengthening societal buy-in for reform
Findings
- Changes in reform commitment across political cycles undermine gains and sustainability.

Recommendations
- Support governments in communicating the importance of reform to a broader range of actors to build multi-stakeholder consensus and collective commitment to protect reform across political cycles.
- Tactfully persuade government counterparts of the benefits of broader disclosure and transparency.
- Tap into existing multi-stakeholder mechanisms where they exist to support broader societal buy-in.

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/capacity-developement/mnrw/mnrw-ii-external-mid-term-evaluation-report-2022-09-27-final.pdf_