## MNRW FY20 report (May 2019 – April 2020) — Executive summary and program report

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### INTRODUCTION AND PROGRAM SCOPE
- The Managing Natural Resource Wealth Thematic Fund (MNRW) supports low and lower-middle income countries by strengthening capacity for natural resource management across five modules: fiscal regime design and implementation, revenue administration, macro-fiscal and public financial management, exchange rate policy frameworks, and statistics; plus cross-cutting training and research.
- Reporting period: Fiscal Year 2020 (FY20), defined as May 2019 – April 2020, with focused operational review of the second half of the financial year.

### IMPACT OF COVID-19 AND OPERATIONAL ADJUSTMENTS
- Multi-dimensional impacts from the covid-19 pandemic:
  - Public health disruptions and international travel restrictions affected capacity development delivery.
  - Commodity price collapse reduced revenue, investment, and growth prospects, particularly for fossil fuel producers; higher gold prices benefit some countries.
  - Price shock affects extractive industry profitability, with higher‑cost or riskier projects more exposed; production curtailments and deferred investment decisions are occurring.
- IMF departmental guidance prepared for natural-resource-rich countries covered:
  - Natural Resource Fiscal Regimes: Tax Policy Response (advocates letting automatic stabilizers operate; general tax relief should apply broadly; limited temporary relief such as royalties may be warranted in exceptional cases).
  - Revenue Administration: Safeguarding Revenues for Oil-Producing Countries (emphasizes managing compliance and interagency collaboration).
  - Fiscal Policy Response to the Sharp Decline in Oil Prices (recommends drawing on buffers to accommodate temporary spending and preserving medium-term fiscal sustainability; prepare for prolonged low oil prices post-pandemic).
  - Assessing Stress from Oil Price Shocks (advises scenario-based assessment of bank soundness and liquidity pressures).
- Operational adaptations in FY20:
  - IMF travel restrictions introduced in February 2020; transition to work-from-home in March 2020.
  - Several activities originally planned for February–April were converted to remote delivery; online training uptake increased.
  - Remote delivery modalities planned for FY21 include sequenced strategy-setting missions, modeling tool development via STX, legislative drafting support with technical counterparts, and blended remote training.

### PROGRAM PORTFOLIO AND FINANCIAL IMPLEMENTATION — key figures and execution
- Portfolio totals and execution to end-April 2020:
  - Total approved projects by end-April 2020: $26.4 million.
  - Projects proposed for endorsement by the Steering Committee: $2.8 million.
  - Expected program funds to be fully committed at the half-way point in Phase II: about $29 million.
  - Cumulative spending through April 30, 2020: $14.6 million (56 percent of approved budgets).
  - FY20 spending: $5.0 million.
  - Total approved budgets for direct technical assistance projects (including scoping missions) by end-April 2020: $20.1 million; cumulative spending through April on these: $11.0 million; FY20 expenditure on direct TA: $3.9 million.
- Table 2 (MNRW Phase II: Portfolio Summary) selected figures (as presented):
  - Indicative Expenditure Envelope, per 2016 Program Document: 30,000
  - Latest Approved Budget as of Apr 2020: 26,379
  - FY18 Actual Expenses: 4,625
  - FY19 Actual Expenses: 4,982
  - FY20 Actual Expenses: 5,040
  - Actual Total Expenses, as of April 30, 2020: 14,647
- Direct Technical Assistance and module-level figures (as presented):
  - Direct Technical Assistance: Indicative 17,351; Latest Approved 19,128; FY18 2,724; FY19 3,951; FY20 3,649; Actual Total 10,324; Share of Total Indicative 58%; Share of Total Approved 73%; Share of Total Actual 70%; Actual Expenses Relative to Approved Budgets 54%.
  - Module 1: Fiscal Regimes: 4,164 / 5,367 / 1,049 / 977 / 767 / 2,793 / 14% / 20% / 19% / 52%
  - Module 2: Revenue Administration: 5,032 / 4,897 / 487 / 1,092 / 1,042 / 2,621 / 17% / 19% / 18% / 54%
  - Module 3: Macro-Fiscal: 3,123 / 4,407 / 505 / 740 / 758 / 2,003 / 10% / 17% / 14% / 45%
  - Module 4: Exchange Rate and Macroprudential: 2,082 / 1,406 / 103 / 273 / 606 / 982 / 7% / 5% / 7% / 70%
  - Module 5: Statistics: 2,950 / 3,051 / 581 / 869 / 476 / 1,925 / 10% / 12% / 13% / 63%
  - Scoping Missions: Indicative 728; Latest Approved 1,011; Actual Total 723; Actual vs Approved 72%.
  - Research Projects and Analytical Tools: Indicative 2,177; Latest Approved 1,260; Actual Total 481; Actual vs Approved 38%.
  - Workshops & Training: Indicative 7,120; Latest Approved 4,258; FY18 1,350; FY19 596; FY20 655; Actual Total 2,601; Share of Total Indicative 24%; Share of Total Approved 16%; Actual Expenses Relative to Approved Budgets 61%.
  - Project Management: Indicative 2,627; Latest Approved 723; Actual Total 518; Actual vs Approved 72%.
  - Staff Costs: Indicative 2,215; Latest Approved 629; Actual Total 518; Actual vs Approved 82%.
  - Trust Fund Management Fee: Indicative 1,963; Latest Approved 1,726; Actual Total 958; Actual vs Approved 56%.
- Operational notes:
  - Allocation follows the 2016 Program Document indicative envelope, tilting toward more funding for direct technical assistance.
  - Scoping missions used strategically for diagnostics and project design.
  - Freed resources from lower project management spending reallocated to capacity development.
  - Portfolio management may reallocate funds to higher-traction projects and crisis-related CD demands to achieve full execution.

### COUNTRY-LEVEL CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT — MODULE HIGHLIGHTS AND FY20 RESULTS
- Module 1 (Fiscal Regimes): support for tax policy, fiscal modeling, revenue forecasting.
  - Aggregate spending: Cumulative spending through April 2020 amounted to $2.8 million against approved budgets of $5.4 million.
  - FY20 execution: Annual spending in FY20 was $0.8 million.
  - Country highlights (selected): Ghana, Guyana, Liberia, Mozambique, Myanmar, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, The Gambia, Uganda, Uzbekistan — activities included STX visits, remote PSA technical support, draft legislative amendments, and planning for remote delivery in FY21.
- Module 2 (Revenue Administration): strengthen revenue administration capacity in mining and petroleum sectors.
  - Aggregate spending: Cumulative spending through April 2020 amounted to $2.6 million against approved budgets of $4.9 million.
  - FY20 execution: More than $1.0 million spending in FY20.
  - Country highlights (selected): Ghana, Guyana, Kenya, Liberia, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, Uganda — activities included diagnostics, STX visits, on-demand remote CD facilities, development of oil and gas risk matrices, and compliance improvement plans.
- Module 3 (Macro-Fiscal and PFM): strengthen management of natural resource revenue flows.
  - Aggregate spending: Cumulative spending through April 2020 reached $2.0 million with total approved budgets of $4.4 million.
  - FY20 execution: Total spending of $0.8 million; new projects in DRC and Senegal; Mongolia project concluded.
  - Country highlights (selected): Bolivia, Congo, D.R., Mongolia, Niger, Senegal, Uganda — activities included cash management, revenue forecasting, public investment management, and remote inception missions.
- Module 4 (Exchange Rate and Macroprudential): delivered via umbrella project financing a long-term expert (LTX).
  - Aggregate spending: Cumulative spending through April 2020 reached $1.0 million against approved budgets of $1.6 million.
  - FY20 execution: Accelerated pace with FY20 spending of $0.6 million.
  - Country highlights (selected): Uganda completed project support on monetary operations; missions to Kyrgyz Republic, Philippines, Uzbekistan, and scoping to Guyana postponed.
- Module 5 (Statistics): two multi-country projects on real sector statistics and government finance statistics.
  - Aggregate spending: Cumulative spending through April 2020 amounted to $1.9 million against total approved budgets of $3.1 million.
  - FY20 execution: Pace slowed in last quarter due to travel restrictions.
  - Real sector highlights: Two regional workshops on Guide to Analyze Natural Resources in National Accounts (Russian-speaking MCD/EUR and Spanish-speaking WHD); support to Guyana on Oil GDP forecasts using FARI model.
  - GFS highlights: Regional workshop for Latin America in November 2019; GFS mission to Guyana in February 2020 to upgrade fiscal statistics from GFSM 86 to GFSM 2014.

### RESEARCH PROJECTS, FARI DEVELOPMENT, AND HANDBOOK
- Aggregate spending: Cumulative spending through April 2020 reached $0.5 million against total budget envelope of $1.3 million.
- FY20 execution: Spending in FY20 increased to $0.3 million to scale up FARI development and training.
- FARI tool and training:
  - Modernization of model tool and methodology near completion.
  - Integration of FARI into training expanded via two regional workshops in East and West Africa.
  - Workshop curriculum blended classroom teaching, hands-on fiscal modeling, online learning leveraging selected MOOC modules on Macroeconomic Management in Resource-Rich Countries (MRC), and participant case studies.
- Handbook:
  - Ongoing work on the Handbook on Fiscal Transparency related to natural resources, with completion expected in FY21.

### TRAINING DELIVERY, ONLINE COURSES, AND PARTICIPATION
- Aggregate training spending: Cumulative spending through April 2020 amounted to $2.6 million with total approved budgets of $4.3 million.
- Response to covid-19: IMF online courses, including MRC and ESR, made available globally with extended timelines; increased participant numbers observed; pilot remote abbreviated MRC course planned for June 2020.
- MOOC and course participation (as presented):
  - English-language MRC MOOC: 3,680 registered participants during FY20, including 634 from MNRW eligible countries; 162 participants successfully completed the course.
  - French-language MOOC: Launched April 2019; open self-paced since November 2019.
  - Russian-language MOOC: Expected to be launched in FY21.
  - Online course attracted 1,955 participants, including 333 from MNRW eligible countries; 93 participants successfully completed the course.
  - Energy Subsidy Reform online course: 1,023 participants, including 207 from MNRW eligible countries; 42 participants successfully completed the course.
  - CEMAC training: Customized training to Chad delivered January 2020; follow-up missions on hold.

### RESULTS-BASED MONITORING (RBM) — MILESTONES AND OUTCOMES
- RBM system and performance:
  - RBM rates outcomes on a 1-4 scale: [4] fully achieved; [1] not achieved; [2] and [3] intermediate.
  - Milestone implementation is improving, with average milestone ratings typically satisfactory.
  - Outcomes lag milestones and generally take considerably more time to reach satisfactory levels.
  - Most outcomes are clustered in the “partially achieved” region; milestones generally rate higher than outcomes across almost all projects.
  - Exception: Mongolia (Module 3) has concluded with milestone and outcome ratings converging to approximately “largely achieved.”
- Selected project-level RBM results and FY20 activities (selected highlights):
  - DRC (M3): cash management, revenue forecasts and PIM commenced; adoption of regulations to allow direct payment to the TSA largely achieved; weekly revenue forecasts milestone partially achieved; consolidation of Mining fund for Future generations (FFG) into budget as a special account fully achieved.
  - Ghana (M1/M2): FAD expert engagement on mining and petroleum fiscal policy; CD delivery affected by revenue authority senior management change but recommenced.
  - Guyana (M1/M2): PRAU established and staffed; Customs Petroleum Unit protocols supported.
  - Kenya (M2): Oil and gas sector risk matrices developed and milestone fully met.
  - Liberia (M1/M2): FARI workshop and PSA fiscal terms modeling milestones met; mining risk matrix finalized.
  - Niger (M3): Directorate General of Public Enterprises fully achieved; several fiscal risk and methodology milestones largely achieved.
  - Research (FARI): model redesign nearing completion; simplified petroleum and mining FARI models developed; workshops delivered to West and East African countries.
  - Fiscal Transparency Guide: FAD working towards Handbook on Fiscal Transparency relating to natural resources (Pillar IV), to be published by end of FY21.

### MID-TERM INDEPENDENT EVALUATION
- Mid-term independent evaluation scheduled to launch in May 2020 with procurement initiation.
- External evaluations temporarily suspended due to travel restrictions and unequal access to facilities and technology; beneficiary authorities engaged in crisis response.
- Essential Terms and Conditions require independent evaluation “not later than 40 months after the activities financed under the Subaccount with respect of each funding cycle have begun.”
- Proposal: postpone initiation of the independent evaluation tentatively by 6 months (to November 2020) for Steering Committee endorsement.

### FINANCIAL UPDATE, LIQUIDITY, AND WORKPLAN ADJUSTMENTS
- Pledges and receipts (as presented):
  - Current level of pledges to the MNRW stands at $27.97 million against the target budget of $30 million.
  - Overall payments received as of April 30, 2020 amounted to $24.1 million; combined with interest earned and transfers, a total of $25.9 million has been received into the subaccount.
  - Partners Total: 27,971 (pledged) and 24,115 (payments received).
  - Internal Transfers Total: 1,077 (pledged and received).
  - Grand Total: 29,048 (pledged) and 25,192 (received).
- Liquidity and projections:
  - Projected cashflow position satisfactory under agreed disbursement schedule.
  - Expenditures for FY21 are projected to be $6.35 million.
  - Annual implementation projected at the higher end to meet expected dramatic increase in CD demands.
  - Total workplan endorsed to date is US$26.4 million.
  - MNRW execution to end April 2020 was US$14.7 million.
- Proposed changes and endorsements:
  - Endorsement sought for US$1.9 million for new projects and US$0.9 million for budget adjustments to existing projects.
  - Resources “returned” to the subaccount for reallocation to other activity amount to US$0.3 million.
  - The changes to the workplan sum to US$2.8 million; if endorsed, total workplan amount would be $29.14 million.
  - Management expects normal budget adjustments will return at least US$100,000 to the subaccount.
  - If exchange rate movements dramatically affect liquidity, further reductions and budget adjustments would be sought and the workplan reduced accordingly.

### OUTLOOK, PRIORITIES, AND RECOMMENDATIONS
- Priority actions recommended:
  - Ensure continued strong implementation of the MNRW project portfolio.
  - Deploy alternative modalities for remote delivery of capacity development given travel uncertainties and pandemic-related constraints.
  - Reallocate funds where necessary to projects with more traction and to meet emerging crisis-related demands for capacity development.
  - Project managers should incorporate lessons learned from FY20 remote delivery experience and tailor remote modalities to country-specific connectivity and institutional constraints.

*Source: Managing Natural Resource Wealth Thematic Fund (MNRW) FY20 report (May 2019 – April 2020), Executive Summary and Phase II program documentation.*

### EXECUTIVE SUMMARY __________________________________________________________________________ 6

### EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

### INTRODUCTION
- The Managing Natural Resource Wealth Thematic Fund (MNRW) supports low and lower-middle income countries by strengthening capacity for natural resource management across five modules: fiscal regime design and implementation, revenue administration, macro-fiscal and public financial management, exchange rate policy frameworks, and statistics; plus cross-cutting training and research.
- The report covers program implementation in Fiscal Year 2020 (FY20), defined as May 2019 – April 2020, with focused operational review of the second half of the financial year.

### IMPACT OF COVID-19
- The MNRW report notes a multi‑dimensional impact from the covid-19 pandemic:
  - Public health disruptions and international travel restrictions have a significant effect on capacity development delivery.
  - Commodity price collapse has reduced revenue, investment, and growth prospects, particularly for fossil fuel producers; higher gold prices benefit some countries.
  - The price shock affects extractive industry profitability, with higher‑cost or riskier projects more exposed; production curtailments and deferred investment decisions are occurring.
- IMF departments (Fiscal Affairs and Monetary and Capital Markets) prepared topical guidance notes for natural-resource-rich countries covering:
  - Natural Resource Fiscal Regimes: Tax Policy Response (advocates letting automatic stabilizers operate; general tax relief should apply broadly; limited temporary relief such as royalties may be warranted in exceptional cases).
  - Revenue Administration: Safeguarding Revenues for Oil-Producing Countries (emphasizes managing compliance and interagency collaboration).
  - Fiscal Policy Response to the Sharp Decline in Oil Prices (recommends drawing on buffers to accommodate temporary spending and preserving medium-term fiscal sustainability; prepare for prolonged low oil prices post-pandemic).
  - Assessing Stress from Oil Price Shocks (advises scenario-based assessment of bank soundness and liquidity pressures).
- Operational adjustments during FY20:
  - IMF travel restrictions introduced in February 2020; transition to work-from-home in March 2020.
  - Several activities originally planned for February–April were converted to remote delivery; online training uptake increased.
  - Examples of continued FY20 Q4 capacity development include work in Congo, D.R. (cash management and revenue forecasting), FARI regional training in East and West Africa, Liberia (petroleum fiscal terms guidance), Nigeria workshop participation, Sierra Leone (legal guidance on Extractive Industries Fiscal Regime Law), and Senegal (macro-fiscal framework and natural gas revenue forecasting model).
- Remote delivery modalities being explored for FY21 include:
  - Strategy-setting and policy advisory missions delivered in narrower, sequenced formats.
  - Development of modeling tools and revenue forecasting frameworks via short-term experts (STX).
  - Legislative drafting and implementation support with established technical counterparts.
  - Remote training integrating existing online material with customized support.
- MNRW remote delivery examples (selected) include:
  - FY20 QIV remote delivery: Bolivia (M3) stock-taking; Guyana (M1) PSA implementation; Liberia (M1) PSA fiscal terms; Mongolia (M3) financial programming training; Senegal (M3) macro-fiscal and petroleum revenue forecasting; Uganda (M2) extractive industries risk matrix.
  - Remote delivery underway or planned for FY21: Congo, D.R. (M3) cash management and PIM; Ghana (M1) fiscal regime reform and mining revenue model; Ghana (M2) risk matrix and interagency protocols; Guyana (M1) fiscal regime implementation and petroleum revenue forecasting; Kenya (M2) compliance improvement; Mozambique (M2) oil and gas risk matrix; Sierra Leone (M1/M2) legislative support and EIRA implementation; Uganda (M2/M3) compliance plans and fiscal rules; Uzbekistan (M1) mining modeling and online course participation.
  - Remote delivery proposed: Ghana (M2) revenue administration; Guyana (M1/M2) natural resource fiscal regime reform and compliance risk management; Kenya (M2) international tax risk management; Mozambique (M1) revenue forecasting; Uganda (M2) international tax risk management and statutory interpretation.

### PROGRAM PORTFOLIO AND FINANCIAL IMPLEMENTATION
- Portfolio status and execution:
  - Total approved projects by end-April 2020: $26.4 million.
  - Projects proposed for endorsement by the Steering Committee: $2.8 million.
  - Expected program funds to be fully committed at the half-way point in Phase II: about $29 million (including redeployment of remaining funds in projects to be closed).
  - Cumulative spending through April 30, 2020: $14.6 million (56 percent of approved budgets).
  - FY20 spending: $5.0 million.
  - Total approved budgets for direct technical assistance projects (including scoping missions) by end-April 2020: $20.1 million; cumulative spending through April on these: $11.0 million; FY20 expenditure on direct TA: $3.9 million.
  - Most in-country module projects have execution rates between 40% and 80%; several recently endorsed CD projects have lower execution rates.
- Table 2 (MNRW Phase II: Portfolio Summary) key figures (all figures as presented):
  - Indicative Expenditure Envelope, per 2016 Program Document: 30,000
  - Latest Approved Budget as of Apr 2020: 26,379
  - FY18 Actual Expenses: 4,625
  - FY19 Actual Expenses: 4,982
  - FY20 Actual Expenses: 5,040
  - Actual Total Expenses, as of April 30, 2020: 14,647
  - Direct Technical Assistance: Indicative 17,351; Latest Approved 19,128; FY18 2,724; FY19 3,951; FY20 3,649; Actual Total 10,324; Share of Total Indicative 58%; Share of Total Approved 73%; Share of Total Actual 70%; Actual Expenses Relative to Approved Budgets 54%.
  - Module breakdown (Indicative / Latest Approved / FY18 / FY19 / FY20 / Actual Total / Share of Indicative / Share of Approved / Share of Actual / Actual vs Approved):
    - Module 1: Fiscal Regimes: 4,164 / 5,367 / 1,049 / 977 / 767 / 2,793 / 14% / 20% / 19% / 52%
    - Module 2: Revenue Administration: 5,032 / 4,897 / 487 / 1,092 / 1,042 / 2,621 / 17% / 19% / 18% / 54%
    - Module 3: Macro-Fiscal: 3,123 / 4,407 / 505 / 740 / 758 / 2,003 / 10% / 17% / 14% / 45%
    - Module 4: Exchange Rate and Macroprudential: 2,082 / 1,406 / 103 / 273 / 606 / 982 / 7% / 5% / 7% / 70%
    - Module 5: Statistics: 2,950 / 3,051 / 581 / 869 / 476 / 1,925 / 10% / 12% / 13% / 63%
  - Scoping Missions: Indicative 728; Latest Approved 1,011; Actual Total 723; Actual vs Approved 72%.
  - Research Projects and Analytical Tools: Indicative 2,177; Latest Approved 1,260; Actual Total 481; Actual vs Approved 38%.
  - Workshops & Training: Indicative 7,120; Latest Approved 4,258; FY18 1,350; FY19 596; FY20 655; Actual Total 2,601; Share of Total Indicative 24%; Share of Total Approved 16%; Actual Expenses Relative to Approved Budgets 61%.
  - Project Management: Indicative 2,627; Latest Approved 723; Actual Total 518; Actual vs Approved 72%.
  - Staff Costs: Indicative 2,215; Latest Approved 629; Actual Total 518; Actual vs Approved 82%.
  - Steering Committee: Indicative 214; Latest Approved 94.
  - Independent Evaluation: Indicative 198.
  - Total: Indicative 30,000; Latest Approved 26,379; Actual Total Expenses as of April 30, 2020: 14,647; Trust Fund Management Fee: Indicative 1,963; Latest Approved 1,726; Actual Total 958; Actual vs Approved 56%.
- Operational notes:
  - Allocation of activities follows the 2016 Program Document indicative envelope, with a tilt toward more funding for direct technical assistance.
  - Scoping missions are used strategically for diagnostics and project design.
  - Development of analytical tools and workshops/training execution picked up; project management spending is below the indicative envelope, with freed resources reallocated to capacity development.
  - Project portfolio will be managed per operational guidance to achieve full execution; this may require reallocating funds to higher‑traction projects and meeting crisis-related CD demands.

### CD FOCUS AND RESULTS
- Delivery and outcomes:
  - Project implementation held up well in FY20 despite travel restrictions; many planned activities in February–April were postponed, but some were converted to remote delivery at short notice.
  - Achievement of milestones under the Results-Based Management (RBM) framework continues to strengthen, with average milestone ratings improving and typically satisfactory; outcomes generally require more time to reach satisfactory levels.
- Figure highlights (as presented):
  - MNRW Approved Work Program by Module: Module 1, 5,367,000; Module 2, 4,898,000; Module 3, 4,408,000; Module 4, 1,407,000; Module 5, 3,051,000; Research, 1,260,000; Training, 3,970,000; Workshop, 289,000.
  - MNRW Approved Work Program by Region: Africa, 11,550,988; Asia Pacific, 1,754,879; Middle East & Central Asia, 291,451; Western Hemisphere, 2,883,103.
  - Number of active and completed projects by module remained broadly stable through FY20.
  - Average milestone rating of due milestones ranges across modules between 1.0 and 4.0, with most modules around the satisfactory band.
  - Average outcome rating per module is lower than milestone ratings and typically requires more time to reach satisfactory levels.

### RESULTS-BASED MONITORING AND EVALUATION
- RBM performance:
  - Milestone implementation is improving, with average milestone ratings typically satisfactory.
  - Outcomes lag milestones and generally take considerably more time to reach satisfactory levels.
  - MNRW Phase II country-level projects show strengthening RBM scores and improving average ratings of due milestones.

### OUTLOOK AND PRIORITIES
- Priority actions recommended by the MNRW report:
  - Ensure continued strong implementation of the MNRW project portfolio.
  - Deploy alternative modalities for remote delivery of capacity development given travel uncertainties and pandemic-related constraints.
  - Reallocate funds where necessary to projects with more traction and to meet emerging crisis-related demands for capacity development.
  - Project managers should incorporate lessons learned from FY20 remote delivery experience and tailor remote modalities to country-specific connectivity and institutional constraints.

*Source: Managing Natural Resource Wealth Thematic Fund (MNRW) FY20 report (May 2019 – April 2020), Executive Summary.*

### 9.      The country-level projects are undertaken within five thematic modules. Table 1

### MNRW Phase II — Country-level projects undertaken within five thematic modules

### Overview
- The country-level projects are organized within five thematic modules.  
- Tables referenced present aggregate overviews by module and expenditure data for individual projects.  
- Cumulative spending figures through April 2020 are reported by module and project in the program summary.

### Module 1 (fiscal regime)
- Purpose: Support design and implementation of fiscal regimes (tax policy), fiscal modeling, and revenue forecasting.
- Aggregate spending: Cumulative spending through April 2020 amounted to $2.8 million against approved budgets of $5.4 million.
- FY20 execution: Annual spending in FY20 slowed to about $0.8 million, partly reflecting delayed or scaled-back activities due to travel restrictions.
- Country-level activity highlights:
  - Ghana (M1): CD delivery in FY20 proceeded as planned. Two STX visits in second half of FY20 including participation in a Presidential Taskforce workshop on mining fiscal policy. FY21 intention to shift to remote delivery supporting mining fiscal regime reform and petroleum revenue forecasting.
  - Guyana (M1): First oil production from the Liza field commenced in early 2020 and has continued despite the covid-19 outbreak and collapse in oil prices. An expert on production sharing fiscal regimes contracted to provide on-demand remote support; HQ support to update revenue forecasting framework. Further policy and legislative work await resolution of disputed electoral result.
  - Liberia (M1): February workshop on sectoral mining modeling and model production sharing agreement (PSA); follow-up STX support on PSA fiscal terms delivered remotely. Scope to provide targeted capacity development remotely is being explored.
  - Mozambique (M1): April mission to take stock of tax policy changes over last six years postponed. Scope for remote delivery of mission and capacity development on modeling and revenue forecasting under discussion with authorities.
  - Myanmar (M1): Planned April 2020 mission cancelled due to travel restrictions. Feasibility of remote delivery in FY21 unclear.
  - Nigeria (M1): STX discussed timeline and strategy for petroleum fiscal regime reform and updated FARI evaluation regime options. STX participated in related workshop in London organized by UK DFID. Significant fiscal pressures from oil price collapse increase uncertainty about petroleum fiscal reforms. Targeted remote support on petroleum fiscal modeling and revenue forecasting may be possible in FY21.
  - Sierra Leone (M1): STX visit supported drafting legislative amendments to Extractive Industries Fiscal Law; fiscal modeling STX converted to remote delivery (planned training proved hard to deliver). Plan to move to remote delivery in FY21 focusing on legal support and fiscal modeling.
  - The Gambia (M1): Initial mission cancelled due to covid-19 travel restrictions. Project to start in FY21 through remote support and online training focusing initially on FARI modeling training customized to The Gambia.
  - Uganda (M1): Transfer of interest in Uganda Oil project completed and tax treatment clarified (August 2019 mission advised on tax options). Plans for revenue forecasting workshop in FY21 on hold while options for remote support explored.
  - Uzbekistan (M1): STX visit in FY20 on mining modeling postponed due to travel restrictions; portion of work expected to be delivered remotely in FY21 (H1).

### Module 2 (revenue administration)
- Purpose: Strengthen capacity in revenue administrations for the mining and petroleum sector.
- Aggregate spending: Against approved budgets of $4.9 million, cumulative spending through April 2020 amounted to $2.6 million.
- FY20 execution: Project delivery held up with more than $1.0 million spending in FY20; some activities impacted by travel restrictions in last quarter of FY20.
- Remote assistance: On-demand remote technical assistance programs underway since early 2019 in all sub-Saharan countries.
- Country-level activity highlights:
  - Ghana (M2): Project implementation delayed until transition of Ghana Revenue Authority senior management completed in FY20, complicating transition to remote delivery. On-demand remote CD facility in place since February 2019 and will continue in FY21. Remote CD planned for FY21 including EI tax reporting forms, oil and gas risk matrix, and information exchange between government agencies.
  - Guyana (M2): HQ Customs diagnostic mission and two follow-up STX visits on customs procedures completed; STX on petroleum unit organizational structure executed before travel restrictions. Seven in-country visits delivered by peripatetic advisor prior to resignation in January 2020; search underway for new peripatetic tax administration advisor. FY21 remote support plans focus on customs petroleum unit, oil and gas sector risk compliance matrix, and international tax risks.
  - Kenya (M2): One diagnostic mission and two STX visits delivered before travel restrictions. On-demand remote CD facility in place since May 2019 and will continue in FY21. FY21 remote CD focus: validation of oil and gas risk matrix, information exchange and cooperation between regulators, international tax risks, and operationalization of a compliance management strategy for EI sector.
  - Liberia (M2): Two in-country STX visits delivered before travel restrictions. On-demand remote CD facility in place since May 2019; FY20 remote CD focused on developing risk filters for mining risk matrix and a compliance improvement plan. Discussions ongoing with LRA to tailor remote CD to support compliance improvement plan and other priorities.
  - Mozambique (M2): Implementation delayed by general elections causing two STX missions to be cancelled; a third STX mission planned for March 2020 cancelled due to covid-19 travel restrictions. On-demand remote CD facility in place since January 2019 and will continue in FY21. FY21 CD will focus on developing a risk matrix for oil, gas and related services sector and developing MOUs for cooperation and information sharing between EI regulatory agencies. Discussions ongoing with tax authority regarding extending the project for two-years.
  - Sierra Leone (M2): STX visits completed prior to travel restrictions, including one on VAT arrears for extractive industries, three on developing EI compliance strategy and implementing EIRA regime. On-demand remote CD facility in place since June 2019 and will continue in FY21. FY21 CD focus on developing and operationalizing a compliance improvement plan.
  - Uganda (M2): One HQ mission and one in-country STX visit delivered in FY20 focusing on statutory interpretation training, developing oil and gas sector risk matrix, and information exchange/cooperation protocols. On-demand remote CD facility in place since January 2019 and will continue in FY21.

### Module 3 (macro-fiscal and public financial management)
- Purpose: Help finance ministries strengthen management of natural resource revenue flows.
- Aggregate spending: Cumulative spending through April 2020 reached $2.0 million with total approved budgets of $4.4 million.
- FY20 execution: Delivery held up well with total spending of $0.8 million; start of two new projects in DRC and Senegal; Mongolia project concluded.
- Country-level activity highlights:
  - Bolivia (M3): Remote STX took stock of project implementation in April; plans for further remote delivery in FY21 being considered. Possible need to extend project beyond December 2020.
  - Congo, D.R (M3): One in-country STX (cash management) followed by three remote-delivery STX (public investment management, cash management and revenue forecasting) in April and May. Continued remote delivery in FY21 expected focusing on macroeconomic framework and budget process, mining revenue forecasts and cash management.
  - Mongolia (M3): Project completed in FY20 with an STX on financial programming and fiscal reporting. Remote support provided on draft appraisal templates for public investment management.
  - Niger (M3): Mission on fiscal risk management in February; follow-up STX postponed. Remote delivery challenging due to IT technology constraints in Niger.
  - Senegal (M3): Inception mission conducted remotely advising on legal framework, fiscal rules, and stabilization funds. FY21 work plan to be reprogrammed prioritizing activities deliverable remotely.
  - Uganda (M3): Planned mission on fiscal rules postponed as authorities focused on immediate response to covid-19 crisis. Tentative plan to deliver mission remotely in July.

### Module 4 (exchange rate and macro-prudential frameworks)
- Implementation: Implemented through an umbrella project financing a long-term expert (LTX) providing technical assistance on monetary policy frameworks for natural resource-rich countries and related analytical work.
- Aggregate spending: Cumulative spending through April 2020 reached $1.0 million against approved budgets of $1.6 million.
- FY20 execution: Pace of execution accelerated with total spending in FY20 of $0.6 million.
- Country-level activity highlights:
  - Uganda (M4): Third and last mission under the project took place in February. Technical assistance provided on monetary policy operational framework with focus on foreign exchange operations. The mission completed the Uganda project under Module 4, sharpening central bank monetary operations and communications to support inflation targeting framework in context of flexible exchange rate.
  - Exchange rate regimes and macroprudential frameworks (M4): Several missions postponed due to covid-19 travel restrictions, including missions to Kyrgyz Republic (monetary policy, dollarization issues, liquidity forecasting and management, and macroeconomic forecasting); the Philippines (review of BSP’s monetary policy communication framework and practices); Uzbekistan (operational building blocks to strengthen monetary and foreign exchange operations in preparation for IT regime); and a scoping mission to Guyana (monetary policy and exchange rate frameworks following start of oil production). Baseline plan for FY21 is to field above missions subject to travel restrictions, authorities’ remote conferencing capacity, and near-term priorities. Anticipated economic fallout from COVID-19 may lead authorities to reassess TA needs. Analytical work on the TA handbook will continue.

### Module 5 (statistics)
- Structure: Two multi-country projects providing capacity development on real sector statistics and government finance statistics.
- Aggregate spending: Cumulative spending through April 2020 amounted to $1.9 million against total approved budgets of $3.1 million.
- FY20 execution: Pace of execution slowed in last quarter of FY20 due to covid-19 related travel restrictions.
- Real sector (M5) highlights:
  - Two regional workshops on implementing the IMF’s Guide to Analyze Natural Resources in National Accounts:
    - Russian-speaking MCD and EUR countries: Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Ukraine in November 2019 at the Joint Vienna Institute (JVI), with a self-funded participant from Israel.
    - Spanish-speaking WHD countries: Bolivia, Chile, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, and Suriname plus attendees from Mozambique, and Sao Tomé and Principe.
  - Discussions with Uzbek officials on receiving CD are on hold due to travel restrictions.
  - CARTAC Real Sector Statistics Advisor confirmed in January that work to rebase Guyana’s GDP was on track, paving way for MNRW CD mission in early FY21; further outreach on hold.
  - Assistance provided to Guyana country team on improving forecasts of Oil GDP using the FARI model and additional source data.
  - By end of April 2020, all but two intended CD missions were implemented. Subject to SC approval of extension of Module 5 to end-FY21, two missions to Guyana and Uzbekistan planned by end-April 2021, in-country or remotely.
- Government finance statistics (M5) highlights:
  - One regional workshop for Latin American countries (Guyana, Honduras, and Guatemala) in November 2019 at IMF HQ encouraged collaboration to align with GFSM 2014 methodology for GFS and EITI Summary Data Template.
  - GFS mission to Guyana in February 2020 advised upgrading fiscal statistics from GFSM 86 to GFSM 2014 reflecting expected increase in fiscal revenues from oil production.
  - Two TA GFS missions to Guyana and Bolivia scheduled by end-October 2020 for reporting revenues from natural resources with GFSM 2014 implementation; outbreak of coronavirus makes timing uncertain. Remote support to help authorities prepare and assess possible remote TA if travel difficulties continue.

### Research projects and workshops
- Aggregate spending: Cumulative spending through April 2020 reached $0.5 million against a total budget envelope of $1.3 million.
- FY20 execution: Spending during FY20 increased to $0.3 million, reflecting scaling up of activities to further develop and use the FARI fiscal regime modeling and revenue forecasting tool.
- FARI tool development and training:
  - Modernization of model tool and methodology brought close to completion.
  - Integration of FARI into training expanded via two regional workshops in East and West Africa immediately prior to travel restrictions.
  - Workshop curriculum blended classroom teaching, hands-on fiscal modeling, online learning leveraging selected MOOC modules on Macroeconomic Management in Resource-Rich Countries (MRC), and participant case studies.
  - Travel restrictions may delay next round of regional workshops.
- Handbook: Ongoing work on the Handbook on Fiscal Transparency related to natural resources, with completion expected in FY21.

### Training
- Aggregate spending: Cumulative spending through April 2020 amounted to $2.6 million with total approved budgets of $4.3 million.
- Response to covid-19: Online training adapting to ensure uninterrupted access to IMF expertise for government officials and public. All IMF online courses, including MRC and Energy Subsidy Reform (ESR), made available globally with extended registration and completion timelines. An increase in participant numbers observed. A remote delivery of an abbreviated MRC course to be piloted in June 2020.
- MRC course activity and participation:
  - English-language MOOC: Self-paced since January 2019. During FY20, attracted 3,680 registered participants, including 634 from MNRW eligible countries; 162 participants successfully completed the course.
  - French-language MOOC: Launched April 2019; open on self-paced basis since November 2019.
  - Russian-language MOOC: Expected to be launched in FY21.
  - Online course attracted 1,955 participants, including 333 from MNRW eligible countries; 93 participants successfully completed the course (language not explicitly specified in source text for these numbers).
- Energy Subsidy Reform online course: Attracted 1,023 participants, including 207 from MNRW eligible countries; 42 participants successfully completed the course.
- CEMAC training: Customized training to Chad on macroeconomic policy frameworks delivered January 2020; follow-up missions to Chad and Central African Republic on hold due to travel restrictions; remote delivery options being explored.

### Financials and Project Overview (selected figures preserved verbatim)
- Direct Technical Assistance (A): Original Approved Budget 19,379; Latest Approved Budget as of Apr 2020 19,128; FY18 Total Expenses 2,724; FY19 Total Expenses 3,951; FY20 Total Expenses 3,649; Total Expenses 10,324; Remaining Budget 8,804; Execution (%) 54%
- Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroprudential Policies (M4): Original Approved Budget 1,195; Latest Approved Budget as of Apr 2020 1,195; FY18 Total Expenses 103; FY19 Total Expenses 185; FY20 Total Expenses 483; Total Expenses 771; Remaining Budget 424; Execution (%) 65%
- Developing Capacity for Compiling Statistics for MNRW - GO (M5): Original Approved Budget 778; Latest Approved Budget as of Apr 2020 985; FY18 Total Expenses 203; FY19 Total Expenses 399; FY20 Total Expenses 102; Total Expenses 704; Remaining Budget 281; Execution (%) 71%
- Developing Capacity for Compiling Statistics for MNRW - RE (M5): Original Approved Budget 2,272; Latest Approved Budget as of Apr 2020 2,066; FY18 Total Expenses 377; FY19 Total Expenses 470; FY20 Total Expenses 374; Total Expenses 1,221; Remaining Budget 845; Execution (%) 59%
- Scoping Missions (B): Original Approved Budget 1,107; Latest Approved Budget as of Apr 2020 1,011; FY18 Total Expenses 294; FY19 Total Expenses 191; FY20 Total Expenses 238; Total Expenses 723; Remaining Budget 288; Execution (%) 72%
- Research Project (C): Original Approved Budget 1,290; Latest Approved Budget as of Apr 2020 1,260; FY18 Total Expenses 571; FY19 Total Expenses 063; FY20 Total Expenses 184; Total Expenses 817; Remaining Budget 793; Execution (%) 8%
- Workshops (D): Original Approved Budget 372; Latest Approved Budget as of Apr 2020 288; FY18 Total Expenses 230; FY19 Total Expenses 42; FY20 Total Expenses 162; Total Expenses 88; Remaining Budget -; Execution (%) 100%
- Other Training (E): Original Approved Budget 3,970; Latest Approved Budget as of Apr 2020 3,970; FY18 Total Expenses 1,119; FY19 Total Expenses 554; FY20 Total Expenses 639; Total Expenses 2,313; Remaining Budget 1,657; Execution (%) 58%
- Administrative/Governance Cost (F): Original Approved Budget 360; Latest Approved Budget as of Apr 2020 723; FY18 Total Expenses 200; FY19 Total Expenses 139; FY20 Total Expenses 179; Total Expenses 518; Remaining Budget 205; Execution (%) 72%
- Total (A+B+C+D+E+F): Original Approved Budget 26,478; Latest Approved Budget as of Apr 2020 26,379; FY18 Total Expenses 4,625; FY19 Total Expenses 4,982; FY20 Total Expenses 5,040; Total Expenses 14,647; Remaining Budget 11,732; Execution (%) 56%
- Trust Fund Management Fee: 1,732 (Original Approved Budget); Latest Approved Budget as of Apr 2020 1,726; FY18 Total Expenses 303; FY19 Total Expenses 326; FY20 Total Expenses 330; Total Expenses 958; Remaining Budget 768

(Note: The table includes detailed per-country budget and expenditure lines with exact figures; selected entries above preserved exactly as presented.)

### Results-based Monitoring and Evaluation
- The Results-based Monitoring (RBM) Framework summary scores for country-level projects are reported in the program documentation (Figure 3 referenced).

*Source: MNRW Phase II program documentation, MNRW Phase II — project report through April 2020.*

### 17.      Outcome ratings for almost all projects are on the right track. Outcomes are

### mnrw2020 - 17.      Outcome ratings for almost all projects are on the right track. Outcomes are

### Outcome and milestone performance
- Outcomes are improvements expected to occur in beneficiary countries with the assistance of MNRW-funded CD.
- The Fund’s Results-Based Management (RBM) system rates outcomes on a 1-4 scale, where: [4] means fully achieved, [1] means not achieved, and [2] and [3] denote shades in between.
- Currently, most outcomes are clustered in the “partially achieved” region.
- Milestones rate higher than outcomes across almost all projects, indicating projects are on track in real time and that outcome ratings are likely to converge upward once projects reach completion.
- Almost all projects are situated above the 45-degree line when comparing average rating of due milestones against RBM outcome scores, confirming milestone ratings exceed outcome ratings.
- Exception: Mongolia (Module 3) has reached its end, with milestone and outcome ratings converging to approximately the same level of “largely achieved.”

### Selected project-level results and activities (FY20)
- Bolivia (M3): An STX remote mission took stock of achievements and pending challenges; assessment requested by the new Vice minister of Treasury who took office in February 2020.
- DRC (M3): TA commenced in cash management, revenue forecasts and public investment management; milestone on adopting regulations to allow direct payment of central government revenues to the TSA largely achieved; milestone for weekly revenue forecasts to the cash management committee partially achieved; consolidation of the Mining fund for Future generations (FFG) into budget as a special account fully achieved.
- Ghana (M1): FAD expert attended Presidential Taskforce workshop on mining and petroleum fiscal policy; delivered workshop for the Mining Fiscal Working Group; agreed data templates and process for the Minerals Commission to collect data necessary to model existing mines.
- Ghana (M2): CD delivery temporarily halted after senior management changes at Ghana Revenue Authority; engagement in February 2020 yielded agreement to recommence CD.
- Guyana (M1): Expert on production sharing fiscal regimes contracted from start of 2020 to provide on-demand remote support.
- Guyana (M2): PRAU established and staffed; refinement of PRAU organizational structure completed; milestone on implementing staffing and capacity assessment recommendations largely met; follow-up missions on Customs role in EI sector supported establishment of Customs Petroleum Unit and protocols.
- Kenya (M2): Oil and gas sector risk matrices developed and corresponding milestone fully met; work focused on strengthening KRA knowledge of EI industries and organizing inter-agency working group for an MOU among EI regulators.
- Liberia (M1): FARI workshop on sectoral mining project and initial advice on model PSA fiscal terms in February; milestone on modeling fiscal terms of a new model PSA fully met; milestone on preparing draft revisions largely met.
- Liberia (M2): Mining risk matrix for large and medium scale miners finalized (milestone fully met); risk filters developed; work on artisanal sector matrix commenced; compliance work program milestone largely achieved.
- Mongolia (M3): Support to improve financial programming model and quarterly fiscal reports; introduced macro-fiscal function arrangements and recommended a formal financial program workgroup.
- Mozambique (M2): Progress formalizing information exchange among regulatory stakeholders; commenced development of risk matrix for oil, gas and related services sector.
- Niger (M3): Advice on identifying, quantifying, analyzing, and disclosing fiscal risks, including PPPs; milestone creating a Directorate General of Public Enterprises fully achieved; milestones on sensitivity analyses to resource prices and data exchange calendars largely achieved; methodologies for budget execution and forecast deviation analysis largely achieved.
- Nigeria (M1): STX visit to Abuja in January 2020 discussed timeline and strategy for petroleum fiscal regime reform and updated FARI evaluation analysis; participation in UK-DFID FOSTER workshop in London.
- Senegal (M3): Remote CD commenced on legal framework, fiscal rule scenarios, and options for stabilization and sovereign wealth funds; prepared gas and oil management section of PFM strategy.
- Sierra Leone (M1): Legal support produced draft legislative amendments.
- Sierra Leone (M2): Development of risk factors and evaluation matrix fully achieved; related risk-assessment milestone largely achieved; support for GST compliance improvement plan for VAT arrears and EI compliance improvement plan; formalizing information exchange among regulatory stakeholders fully achieved.
- Uganda (M1): Development of the Uganda Oil Project proceeded; transfer of interest between two parties completed and tax treatment clarified, paving way for final investment decision.
- Uganda (M2): Coordinated plans for data and information sharing largely achieved; mining risk matrix undergoing validation; oil-and-gas risk matrix development continuing; risk-assessment milestone partially met.
- Uganda (M4): Third mission assisted on monetary policy operational framework, with particular focus on foreign exchange operations.
- Research (FARI): Mission model redesign nearing completion; new simplified FARI petroleum and mining models developed; first of three workshops delivered to seven West African and six East African countries.
- Research (Fiscal Transparency Guide): FAD working towards producing an accompanying Handbook on Fiscal Transparency relating to natural resources (Pillar IV), to be published by the end of FY21.
- Capacity for compiling statistics (GO): One regional workshop for Latin American countries (Guyana, Honduras, Guatemala) in November; GFS mission to Guyana in February 2020; Guyana upgrading fiscal statistics from GFSM 86 to GFSM 2014.
- Capacity for compiling statistics (RE): Two regional workshops (Russian-speaking MCD and EUR; Spanish-speaking WHD) to implement IMF’s Guide to Analyze Natural Resources in National Accounts.
- CEMAC training: Customized mission to Chad on Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks for Resource-Rich Countries focusing on debt sustainability and fiscal rules.
- Energy subsidy reform MOOC: Attracted 1,955 participants in FY2020, including 333 from MNRW eligible countries; 93 participants successfully completed the course.
- Training in macroeconomic management in resource-rich countries (MRC): English-language MOOC attracted 634 participants from MNRW eligible countries; French-language MOOC launched April 2019 and open self-paced since November 2019 has attracted 207 participants from MNRW eligible countries.

### Mid-term independent evaluation
- The MNRW mid-term independent evaluation was scheduled to launch in May 2020 with initiation of the procurement process.
- All IMF external evaluations of externally financed activities were temporarily suspended due to ongoing travel restrictions and unequal access to facilities and technology among stakeholders.
- Beneficiary authorities are engaged in dealing with the crisis and cannot devote time and resources to inputting into evaluations; therefore the MNRW evaluation is proposed to be postponed.
- The Essential Terms and Conditions of the MNRW Subaccount (Annex II of the LoU) specify that “not later than 40 months after the activities financed under the Subaccount with respect of each funding cycle have begun, an independent evaluation of the activities financed under the Subaccount will be initiated”.
- Proposal: postpone initiation of the independent evaluation by tentatively 6 months (to November 2020). This request being submitted for endorsement by the Steering Committee.

### Financial update, liquidity, and workplan adjustments
- Current level of pledges to the MNRW stands at $27.97 million against the target budget of $30 million.
- Overall payments received as of April 30, 2020 amounted to $24.1 million and, combined with interest earned and transfers, a total of $25.9 million has been received into the subaccount.
- Future payments under agreements are subject to exchange rate fluctuations; majority of financing received, so large liquidity impact not expected.
- Funding gap will be less than $1 million; IMF will continue outreach to new donors and current partners to assess topping up contributions.
- Pro-rata share of unspent balance from Phase I is in process of being returned to Oman.
- Partners Total: 27,971 (pledged) and 24,115 (payments received) as shown in partner table.
- Internal Transfers Total: 1,077 (pledged and received).
- Grand Total: 29,048 (pledged) and 25,192 (received) as presented.
- Projected cashflow position satisfactory; under agreed disbursement schedule, cash balance will ensure implementation of endorsed MNRW activities.
- Expenditures for FY21 are projected to be $6.35 million.
- Annual implementation projected at the higher end to meet expected dramatic increase in CD demands, aligned with increased number of IMF lending programs during the COVID-19 crises.
- Total workplan endorsed to date is US$26.4 million.
- MNRW execution to end April 2020 was US$14.7 million.
- Endorsement sought for US$1.9 million for new projects and US$0.9 million for budget adjustments to existing projects.
- Resources “returned” to the subaccount for reallocation to other activity amount to US$0.3 million (included in the Table on Proposed Revisions and New Modules).
- The changes to the workplan sum to US$2.8 million.
- These changes, if endorsed, would take the total workplan amount to $29.14 million.
- Management expects careful management of project expenditures and normal budget adjustments will return at least US$100,000 to the subaccount.
- If exchange rates at time of receipt of pending installments dramatically affect liquidity, further reductions and budget adjustments would be sought and the workplan would be reduced accordingly.

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/capacity-developement/mnrw/mnrw2020.pdf_