## 7.5 percentage points above its 2019 level. ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [7.5 percentage points above its 2019 level.](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/conferences/2023/2023-09-2023-global-debt-monitor.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/files/conferences/2023/2023-09-2023-global-debt-monitor.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/conferences/2023/2023-09-2023-global-debt-monitor.pdf.json) --- ### Highlights - Global debt declined 10 percentage points of GDP and reached 238 percent of GDP in 2022. - In U.S. dollars, global debt remained stable at USD 235 trillion. - Public debt fell 3.6 percentage points of GDP to 92 percent of GDP in 2022; the fall over the last two years reversed about a half of the surge during the pandemic. - Private debt by households and non-financial corporations dropped 6.4 percentage points of GDP to 146 percent of GDP in 2022. - The two years of large declines, amounting to 20 percentage points of GDP, only partially reversed the spike from the pandemic; global debt remained 9 percentage points of GDP above its pre-pandemic level in 2022. - Global debt appears to have returned to its historical upward trend; managing debt vulnerabilities should be key. ### Debt developments by country groups and debt types - Overall: - Private debt (household and non-financial corporate) drove the overall reduction; private debt dropped 6.4 percentage points to 146 percent of GDP in 2022 (or close to USD 144 trillion). - Advanced economies (AEs): - Average debt fell 12.2 percentage points to 278 percent of GDP in 2022. - Household debt came down to 74 percent of GDP. - Non-financial corporate debt came down to 93 percent of GDP. - Public debt continued to fall in 2022 to 114 percent of GDP, but remained 8 percentage points of GDP above its pre-pandemic level. - Emerging markets (EMs) excluding China: - Total debt fell 7.6 percentage points to reach 124 percent of GDP in 2022. - Private debt dropped 4.5 percentage points to 69 percent of GDP. - Public debt declined 3 percentage points in 2022 and stood at 55 percent of GDP, still 3.3 percentage points of GDP higher than its pre-pandemic level in 2019. - China: - Total debt rose 7.3 percentage points of GDP to 272 percent of GDP in 2022. - Public debt rose by 7 percentage points to reach 77 percent of GDP in 2021-2022. - Private debt increased in 2022 to 195 percent of GDP. - Overall, total debt in 2022 rose 25 percentage points of GDP above its pre-pandemic level. - China’s total debt in dollar terms was USD 47.5 trillion; compared with the United States at close to USD 70 trillion. - Low-income developing countries (LIDCs): - Total debt increased by about ½ percentage points of GDP to 88 percent of GDP in 2022. - Private debt increased to a new high of 39 percent of GDP in 2022. - Public debt persisted at 48 percent of GDP. - In 2022, LIDCs spent 23 percent of tax revenues on average just to make interest payments. ### Historical trends and drivers - Since the early 1970s, global public debt has tripled from about 30 percent of GDP to over 90 percent of GDP by 2022. - Global private debt tripled between 1960 and 2022. - China’s total debt-to-GDP ratio increased almost four-fold from around 70 percent in the mid-1980s to 272 percent of GDP in 2022. - Over half of the increase in the global debt-to-GDP ratio in the period 2008-2022 can be attributed to the rapid increase in China’s debt-to-GDP ratio above the rest of world. - Deleveraging after the Global Financial Crisis was notable in several AEs, especially in the household sector in the U.S.; thereafter private debts remained broadly stable in AEs but rose faster in EMs (notably China) and LIDCs. ### Selected historical weighted-average debt statistics (Percent of GDP, weighted averages) - Global total debt (World): 1950s 96.8 1960s 101.5 1968 106.4 1970s 115.0 1980s 144.3 1986 156.8 1990s 180.1 2000s 196.8 2004 198.6 2010s 219.4 2019 228.9 2020 258.0 2021 248.1 2022 238.1 - Global public debt (World): 1950s 56.2 1960s 39.8 1968 36.3 1970s 33.1 1980s 47.6 1986 54.3 1990s 62.0 2000s 66.5 2004 69.8 2010s 81.0 2019 84.9 2020 100.4 2021 96.0 2022 92.4 - Global private debt (World): 1950s 40.6 1960s 61.7 1968 70.0 1970s 81.9 1980s 96.7 1986 102.5 1990s 118.1 2000s 130.3 2004 128.8 2010s 138.3 2019 144.0 2020 157.6 2021 152.1 2022 145.7 ### Outlook, scenarios, and policy recommendations - Outlook: - After three years of the “rollercoaster,” global debt is likely to rise again over the medium-term under business-as-usual. - The macroeconomic conditions that provided relief to debt ratios in 2021-2022 are fading: the rebound of real GDP growth is fading and inflation is projected to stabilize at a low level over the medium term (July 2023 WEO Update). - If global debt resumes its rising trend, the pandemic-related rollercoaster will be a temporary deviation around the long-term rising trend. - Policy recommendations: - Governments should adopt strategies to help reduce debt vulnerabilities over the medium term. - Vigilant monitoring of household and non-financial corporate debt burdens and related financial stability risks. - To reduce public debt vulnerabilities, build a credible medium-term fiscal framework to balance short-term spending needs with medium-term fiscal sustainability (April 2023 Fiscal Monitor). - For LIDCs: improve tax capacity and revenue mobilization to restore fiscal sustainability; address harsher financing terms caused by deteriorated risk perceptions and limited market access. - More generally: raise medium-term growth through structural reforms to boost potential output; pursue international cooperation on taxation and carbon pricing to alleviate pressures on public financing and mobilize resources for private investment. *Fiscal Affairs Department | International Monetary Fund | September 2023* ### 7.5 percentage points above its 2019 level. ### 2023-09-2023-global-debt-monitor - 7.5 percentage points above its 2019 level. ### Highlights - Global debt declined 10 percentage points of GDP and reached 238 percent of GDP in 2022. - In U.S. dollars, global debt remained stable at USD 235 trillion. - Public debt fell 3.6 percentage points of GDP to 92 percent of GDP in 2022; the fall over the last two years reversed about a half of the surge during the pandemic. - Private debt by households and non-financial corporations dropped 6.4 percentage points of GDP to 146 percent of GDP in 2022. - The two years of large declines, amounting to 20 percentage points of GDP, only partially reversed the spike from the pandemic; global debt remained 9 percentage points of GDP above its pre-pandemic level in 2022. - Global debt appears to have returned to its historical upward trend; managing debt vulnerabilities should be key. ### Debt developments by country groups and debt types - Overall: Private debt (household and non-financial corporate) drove the overall reduction; private debt dropped 6.4 percentage points to 146 percent of GDP in 2022 (or close to USD 144 trillion). - Advanced economies (AEs): - Average debt fell 12.2 percentage points to 278 percent of GDP in 2022. - Household debt came down to 74 percent of GDP. - Non-financial corporate debt came down to 93 percent of GDP. - Public debt continued to fall in 2022 to 114 percent of GDP, but remained 8 percentage points of GDP above its pre-pandemic level. - Emerging markets (EMs) excluding China: - Total debt fell 7.6 percentage points to reach 124 percent of GDP in 2022. - Private debt dropped 4.5 percentage points to 69 percent of GDP. - Public debt declined 3 percentage points in 2022 and stood at 55 percent of GDP, still 3.3 percentage points of GDP higher than its pre-pandemic level in 2019. - China: - Total debt rose 7.3 percentage points of GDP to 272 percent of GDP in 2022. - Public debt rose by 7 percentage points to reach 77 percent of GDP in 2021-2022. - Private debt increased in 2022 to 195 percent of GDP. - Overall, total debt in 2022 rose 25 percentage points of GDP above its pre-pandemic level. - China’s total debt in dollar terms was USD 47.5 trillion; compared with the United States at close to USD 70 trillion. - Low-income developing countries (LIDCs): - Total debt increased by about ½ percentage points of GDP to 88 percent of GDP in 2022. - Private debt increased to a new high of 39 percent of GDP in 2022. - Public debt persisted at 48 percent of GDP. - In 2022, LIDCs spent 23 percent of tax revenues on average just to make interest payments. ### Historical trends and drivers - Since the early 1970s, global public debt has tripled from about 30 percent of GDP to over 90 percent of GDP by 2022. - Global private debt tripled between 1960 and 2022. - China’s total debt-to-GDP ratio increased almost four-fold from around 70 percent in the mid-1980s to 272 percent of GDP in 2022. - Over half of the increase in the global debt-to-GDP ratio in the period 2008-2022 can be attributed to the rapid increase in China’s debt-to-GDP ratio above the rest of world. - Deleveraging after the Global Financial Crisis was notable in several AEs, especially in the household sector in the U.S.; thereafter private debts remained broadly stable in AEs but rose faster in EMs (notably China) and LIDCs. ### Outlook, scenarios, and policy recommendations - Outlook: - After three years of the “rollercoaster,” global debt is likely to rise again over the medium-term under business-as-usual. - The macroeconomic conditions that provided relief to debt ratios in 2021-2022 are fading: the rebound of real GDP growth is fading and inflation is projected to stabilize at a low level over the medium term (July 2023 WEO Update). - If global debt resumes its rising trend, the pandemic-related rollercoaster will be a temporary deviation around the long-term rising trend. - Policy recommendations: - Governments should adopt strategies to help reduce debt vulnerabilities over the medium term. - Vigilant monitoring of household and non-financial corporate debt burdens and related financial stability risks. - To reduce public debt vulnerabilities, build a credible medium-term fiscal framework to balance short-term spending needs with medium-term fiscal sustainability (April 2023 Fiscal Monitor). - For LIDCs: improve tax capacity and revenue mobilization to restore fiscal sustainability; address harsher financing terms caused by deteriorated risk perceptions and limited market access. - More generally: raise medium-term growth through structural reforms to boost potential output; pursue international cooperation on taxation and carbon pricing to alleviate pressures on public financing and mobilize resources for private investment. *2023 Global Debt Monitor — Fiscal Affairs Department | International Monetary Fund | September 2023* ### References ### 2023-09-2023 Global Debt Monitor - References ### Bibliographic and referenced works - Benitez, Juan Carlos, Mario Mansour, Miguel Pecho, and Charles Vellutin, 2023, “Building Tax Capacity in Developing Countries, July 2023, IMF Staff Discussion Note, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund - Gaspar, Vitor, Paulo Medas, and Roberto Perrelli, 2023, “Riding the Global Debt Rollercoaster,” December 2022, Washington, IMF, 2023, “Chapter 1: On the Path to Policy Normalization,” Fiscal Monitor, April. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund - IMF, 2023, “World Economic Outlook Update,” July 2023, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund ### Global Debt Database (GDD) — scope and updates - Coverage and history: - The IMF Global Debt Database (GDD) covers private and public debt for 190 countries dating back to the 1950s. - The 2022 update covers 190 countries for the period 1950-2021. - Until 2022, the GDD was updated annually in December of the following year of latest data availability. The release date has been advanced to September from 2023 onwards. - Distinguishing features versus other databases: - Multidimensional approach offering multiple debt series with different coverages (e.g., central government, general government, nonfinancial public sector). - More than doubles the cross-sectional dimension of existing private debt datasets. - Integrity checked through bilateral consultations with officials and IMF country desks. - Relies on primary sources; reported debt series are compiled without recourse to extrapolation, interpolation, or auxiliary regressions. Original data series are adjusted for definition and coverage differences whenever feasible. - Contact for queries: - For further queries, refer to the GDD webpage on the IMF website or send an e-mail to IMF-GDD@imf.org. ### Public debt series in the GDD — definitions and coverage - Public debt series correspond to gross debt owed by the general and/or central government as defined in the IMF’s Public Debt Statistics: Guide for Compilers 2011. - The GDD provides available debt statistics for central government debt, general government debt, and non-financial public sector debt. - Instruments covered: (i) loans; (ii) debt securities; (iii) currency and deposits; (iv) insurance, pension, and standardized guarantee schemes; (v) other accounts payable; and (vi) special drawing rights. - SOE debt inclusion: - SOE debts are included where public debt series cover the nonfinancial public sector/public sector (debt of SOEs included in public sector), or when private debt series come from financial accounts (SOEs included in private debt series). ### Private debt series in the GDD — definitions and methodology - The GDD reports household and non-financial private corporate debt. - Private sector debt is defined as the gross outstanding stock of all liabilities that are debt instruments, in line with the System of National Accounts 2008. - Cross-border debt flows are considered. - A narrower alternative measure of private debt focusing on core instruments (loans and debt securities) is also compiled to expand country coverage, mirroring the BIS database approach. ### Calculation of aggregate debt-to-GDP ratios - Aggregate debt-to-GDP ratio for a country group is computed as a GDP-weighted average of individual countries’ debt-to-GDP ratios using period-average USD-converted GDP: - If di denotes country i’s debt-to-GDP ratio and Yi_USD the country’s GDP in USD using the period-average exchange rate, then: - d = (Σ di * Yi_USD) / (Σ Yi_USD) - Equivalently expressed using period-average exchange rate Ai. - Notes on aggregation: - Using GDP-weighted average explains why adding up country debt ratios does not necessarily equal the global ratio. - For countries reporting only public or private debt (but not both), missing series are treated as zero when calculating group aggregates (this underestimates aggregated debt ratios for groups; example: about 2 percentage points of GDP for global private debts in recent years). - If a country previously reported a debt series but has missing recent values, missing values are filled by assuming unchanged nominal debt stock since the latest observation. ### Data transparency - Debt transparency is defined as timely disclosure of debt to the general public (who owes how much, to whom, and under which instruments and conditions). - The GDD enhances data transparency by providing timely and accurate disclosure of public and private debt across a wide range of countries. ### Selected historical weighted-average debt statistics shown in Tables 1–3 (Percent of GDP, weighted averages) - Global total debt (World): - 1950s 96.8 1960s 101.5 1968 106.4 1970s 115.0 1980s 144.3 1986 156.8 1990s 180.1 2000s 196.8 2004 198.6 2010s 219.4 2019 228.9 2020 258.0 2021 248.1 2022 238.1 - Global public debt (World): - 1950s 56.2 1960s 39.8 1968 36.3 1970s 33.1 1980s 47.6 1986 54.3 1990s 62.0 2000s 66.5 2004 69.8 2010s 81.0 2019 84.9 2020 100.4 2021 96.0 2022 92.4 - Global private debt (World): - 1950s 40.6 1960s 61.7 1968 70.0 1970s 81.9 1980s 96.7 1986 102.5 1990s 118.1 2000s 130.3 2004 128.8 2010s 138.3 2019 144.0 2020 157.6 2021 152.1 2022 145.7 ### Notes and data considerations included with figures and tables - Table and figure notes: - Group aggregates are calculated using all countries that reported statistics for at least one debt series. - To ensure consistency between total debt statistics and its breakdown to public and private debt, a missing debt series is treated as zero for group aggregates whenever the country has never reported such series. If a country has reported the series before but has missing recent values, missing values are filled by assuming unchanged nominal debt stock since the latest observation. - China’s public debt numbers presented cover a narrower perimeter of the general government than IMF staff’s estimates in China Article IV reports. China’s private sector debt includes 1/3 of local government financing vehicle debt and the debt of other off-budget government funds. - Debt-to-GDP ratios above 300 percent are not shown in certain figures. - Figures 4, 6, and 8 include debt data marked in grey for 181, 81, and 82 countries, respectively. - The whiskers in boxplots show the range of 1.5 times of the respective interquartile range. - A hypothetical scenario line for global total debt assumes China’s total debt-to-GDP ratio increased annually at the same rate as the average emerging markets excluding China from its initial level in the database at about 100percent of GDP in 1995. - The contribution of the real GDP growth rate (g) each year is given by g/(1+g)*debt-to-GDP ratio at the end of the previous year. The direct contribution of the inflation rate (π) each year is π/(1+γ)*debt-to-GDP ratio at the end of the previous year, where γ is the nominal GDP growth rate during the year under study. *Fiscal Affairs Department | International Monetary Fund | September 2023* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/conferences/2023/2023-09-2023-global-debt-monitor.pdf_