## OYA CELASUN

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**Canonical URL:** [OYA CELASUN](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/cv/pdfs/oya-celasun.pdf)

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### Personal Information
- Nationality: Danish, Turkish.

### Education
- Ph.D. Economics, University of Maryland at College Park, May 2001.  
  - Dissertation: “Price Setting Behavior and Inflation Dynamics in Small Open Economies”  
  - Advisors: Guillermo A. Calvo, Harry H. Kelejian, Carmen M. Reinhart.  
  - Fields of Specialization: Open Economy Macroeconomics, Econometrics.
- M.A. Economics, Bilkent University, Ankara, Turkey, 1995.
- B.S. Industrial Engineering, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey, 1992.

### Professional Experience
- Division Chief, Research Department, World Economic Studies Division, IMF, 2015/12-present.
- Deputy Division Chief, Research Department, World Economic Studies Division, IMF, 2015/03-2015/12.
- Mission Chief for Uruguay and Assistant to the Director, Western Hemisphere Department, Southern II Division, IMF, 2012/10-2014/02.
- Deputy Division Chief, Western Hemisphere Department, North America Division, IMF, 2011/04-2012/10.
- Senior Economist, Western Hemisphere Department, North America Division, IMF, 2008/12-2011/03.
- Economist, Research Department, Macroeconomic Studies Division, IMF, 2008/05-2008/11.
- Economist (Temporary Assignment Program), Finance Department, IMF, 2007/06-2008/04.
- Economist, Research Department, Macroeconomic Studies Division, IMF, 2002/10-2007/06.
- Economist, Middle Eastern Department, IMF, 2001/10-2002/09.

### External Publications (selected)
- “The Next Step: Latin America's Growing Economies”; joint with Alejandro Werner; Americas Quarterly, March 2013.
- “The U.S. Economy in the Aftermath of the Great Recession” (translated into Turkish), Görüş Magazine, Spring 2012.
- “Sovereign Debt and Corporate Borrowing Costs in Emerging Markets”; joint with Senay Agca; Journal of International Economics 88, September 2012, 198–208. (Nominated for the Best Paper Award, 2012 FMA Conference and 2011 European FMA Conference.)
- “Banking Sector Reforms and Corporate Borrowing Costs in Emerging Markets”; joint with Senay Agca; Emerging Markets Finance and Trade 48, November-December 2012, 71–95.
- “Boon or Burden? The Effect of Private-Sector Debt on the Risk of Sovereign Default in Developing Countries”; joint with Philipp Harms; Economic Inquiry 49 (1), January 2011, 70-88.
- “Financial Deregulation, Private Foreign Borrowing, and the Risk of Sovereign Default: A Political Economy Analysis”; joint with Philipp Harms; Frontiers in Economics and Finance 7, April 2010, 82–100.
- “Managing Aid Surprises”; joint with Jan Walliser; Finance and Development 45 (3), September 2008.
- “Predictability of Development Aid: Do Fickle Donors Undermine Aid Effectiveness?”; joint with Jan Walliser; Economic Policy 23, July 2008, 545-594. (Featured in The Economist’s Economics Focus, July 10, 2008).
- “Inflation Inertia and Credible Disinflation”; joint with Guillermo Calvo and Michael Kumhof; Journal of International Economics 73, March 2007, 48-68.
- “Sticky Inflation and the Real Effects of Exchange Rate Based Stabilization,” Journal of International Economics 70, September 2006, 115-139.
- “Predictability of Budget Aid: Recent Experiences”; joint with Jan Walliser; in S. Koeberle, Z. Stavreski, and J. Walliser, eds. Budget Support as More Effective Aid?: Recent Experiences and Emerging Lessons. Washington: World Bank, 2006.
- “Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach”; joint with Xavier Debrun and Jonathan Ostry; IMF Staff Papers 53 (3), December 2006 (earlier version issued as IMF WP 06/67).
- “Would "Cold Turkey" Work in Turkey?”; joint with Gaston Gelos and Alessandro Prati; IMF Staff Papers 51 (3), December 2004 (earlier version issued as IMF WP 03/49, also featured in the IMF Survey, June 2003).
- “Obstacles to Disinflation: What is the Role of Fiscal Expectations?”; joint with Gaston Gelos and Alessandro Prati; Economic Policy, October 2004 (earlier version issued as IMF WP 04/111).
- “A Theory of Rational Inflationary Inertia”; joint with Guillermo A. Calvo and Michael Kumhof; in P. Aghion, R. Frydman, J. Stiglitz, and M. Woodford, eds. Knowledge, Information and Expectations in Modern Macroeconomics: In Honor of Edmund S. Phelps. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2002.

### IMF Publications (selected)
- “Where Are Commodity Exporters Headed? Output Growth in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom”; joint with Aqib Aslam, Rudolfs Bems, Samya Beidas-Strom, Sinem Kılıç-Çelik, and Zsoka Koczan, Chapter II in the October 2015 World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund.
- “Fiscal Policy in Latin America: Lessons and Legacies of the Global Financial Crisis”; joint with an IMF staff team; IMF Staff Discussion Note No. SDN/15/06, April 30, 2015.
- “The U.S. Manufacturing Recovery: Uptick or Renaissance?”; joint with Gabriel di Bella, Tim Mahedy, Chris Papageorgiou; IMF Working Paper No. WP/14/28, February 12, 2014.
- “Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States” (with Roxana Mihet and Lev Ratnovski), IMF Working Paper No. WP/12/89, March 01, 2012.
- “U.S. Household Wealth and Saving: The Micro Story Behind the Macro Dynamics”; joint with Daniel Cooper, Jihad Dagher, Rahul Giri; in United States: Selected Issues, IMF Country Report No. 12/214.
- “Output Losses Following Financial Crises—A Sensitivity Analysis”; joint with Geoff Keim and Martin Sommer; in United States: Selected Issues, IMF Country Report No. 12/214.
- “House Prices and Household Wealth in Canada”; joint with Jihad Dagher and Alejo Costa; in Canada: Selected Issues, IMF Country Report No. 11/365.
- “Household Deleveraging and the Recovery”; joint with Grace Bin Li and Martin Sommer; in United States: Selected Issues, IMF Country Report No. 11/202.
- “The Financing of Future U.S. Federal Deficits”; joint with Martin Sommer; in United States: Selected Issues, IMF Country Report 10/248.
- “The U.S. Federal Debt Outlook: Reading the Tea Leaves”; joint with Geoffrey Keim; IMF Working Paper No. WP/10/62, March 01, 2010.
- “How Does Public External Debt Affect Corporate Borrowing Costs in Emerging Markets?”; joint with Senay Agca; IMF Working Paper No. 09/266, December 01, 2009.
- “Spillovers from U.S. Federal Debt Issuance: The Case of Emerging Market Sovereign Borrowing”; in United States: Selected Issues, IMF Country Report No. 09/229.
- “The U.S. Federal Debt Outlook: A Stochastic Simulation Approach”; joint with Geoffrey Keim; in United States: Selected Issues, SM/09/229.
- “On the Properties of Various Estimators for Fiscal Reaction Functions”; joint with Joong Shik Kang; IMF Working Paper No. 06/182, July 01, 2006.
- “Perspectives on Chilean External Debt”; in Chile: Selected Issues, SM/05/316.
- “Turkey’s Inflation Process”; in Turkey: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix, 2004. Reprinted in IMF Occasional Paper No. 242, Turkey at the Crossroads: From Crisis Resolution to EU Accession.
- “The Synchronization of Output Fluctuations and Options for Monetary Unification in West Africa”; joint with Alejandro Justiniano; mimeo.
- “Exchange Rate Regime Considerations in an Oil Economy: The Case of the Islamic Republic of Iran”; in Islamic Republic of Iran: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix, SM/02/212. Also published as IMF Working Paper No. 03/26, January 01, 2003.
- “An Analysis of the Money Demand and Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran”; joint with Mangal Goswami; in Islamic Republic of Iran: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix, SM/02/212. Also published as IMF Working Paper No. 02/205.

### Other Papers
- “Capital Flows, Macroeconomic Management and the Financial System: Turkey, 1989–1997”; joint with Dong He and Cevdet Denizer; World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 2141, July 1999.
- “The 1994 Currency Crisis in Turkey,” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 1913, April 1998.

### Refereeing
- Journal of Political Economy, Journal of International Economics, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Economies of Transition, Journal of International Money and Finance, Journal of Macroeconomics, Journal of Development Economics.

### Teaching Experience
- Teaching Assistant: Econometrics (graduate level), University of Maryland, Fall 1997-Spring 2000.
- Instructor: Probability and Statistics (undergraduate level), University of Maryland, Fall 1996-Spring 1997.

### Awards
- Central Bank of Turkey, Young Economist Award, 2001.
- Graduate Assistantship, University of Maryland, 1996-2001.
- Fulbright Fellowship, 1995.

### Skills
- Languages: English (fluent), Spanish (advanced), Danish (fair), Turkish (native).
- Computer Skills: Stata, TSP, Eviews, Matlab, Excel.

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/cv/pdfs/oya-celasun.pdf_