## Thomas Kroen ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [Thomas Kroen](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/cv/pdfs/thomas-kroen.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/files/cv/pdfs/thomas-kroen.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/cv/pdfs/thomas-kroen.pdf.json) --- ### Contact Information - tkroen@imf.org - 609-933-4888 - International Monetary Fund, 1900 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20431 ### Professional Experience - International Monetary Fund, 2022 - present - Economist, Program, World Economic Studies Division (WEO), Research Dept.; (Prior) Regional Studies & Oman desk (one-off), Middle East & Central Asia Dept. ### Education - Princeton University, 2016-2022 - PhD in Economics - Fields: Finance, Macroeconomics - London School of Economics, 2015-2016 - M.Sc. Econometrics and Mathematical Economics - University of Mannheim, 2012-2015 - B.Sc. Economics (Minor: Mathematics) ### Research Fields - Banking, Macro-Finance, Corporate Finance ### Working Papers 1. “Payout Restrictions and Bank Risk-Shifting.” With Fulvia Fringuellotti. 2024 (revised version coming soon). - Examines effects of bank payout restrictions imposed during the COVID-crisis in 2020 on risk-shifting incentives within US banks. - Uses a high-frequency differences-in-differences empirical strategy. - Finds that when share buybacks are banned and dividends restricted for Fed-supervised banks: - Equity prices fall. - CDS spreads and bond yields decline differentially. - Results indicate payout restrictions shift risk from debt towards equity holders. - After lifting the restrictions: - Both effects revert. - Removing the restrictions is followed by higher payouts and by differentially stronger growth in riskier (non-investment grade) lending. - While lending portfolios become riskier, spreads charged on loans decline, suggesting risk-shifting by bank equityholders. 2. “Falling Rates and Rising Superstars.” With Ernest Liu, Atif Mian, and Amir Sufi. 2022. Revise & Resubmit at American Economic Review. - Investigates whether low interest rates contribute to rising market concentration. - Uses firm financials and high frequency monetary policy shocks. - Finds falling interest rates disproportionately benefit industry leaders, especially when the initial interest rate is already low. - Falling rates raise valuation of industry leaders relative to followers and this effect snowballs as the interest rate approaches zero. - Mechanisms: - (i) cost of borrowing falls more for industry leaders, - (ii) industry leaders can raise more debt, increase leverage, and buyback more shares, - (iii) capital investment and acquisitions increase more for industry leaders. - All three effects snowball as the interest rate approaches zero. - Provides empirical support that extremely low interest rates and the rise of superstar firms are connected. 3. “Payout Policy Reform and Investor Horizons.” 2022. - Studies how investor horizons affect corporate payout and investment policies using the 1982 share repurchase liberalization in the US as a natural experiment. - Finds firms with greater pre-reform short-termist ownership increase payouts by .85% of total assets relative to firms with a more long-term investor base. - Increase is entirely driven by net share repurchases while dividends do not fall after the event. - The increase in payouts is mirrored by an equally sized decline in investment, showing sizable real effects on firm behavior. - Tests exploiting newly digitized insider trading data support that results are driven by myopic considerations, rather than reduced agency costs following the reform. 4. “Financial Stability in a Higher-for-Longer Interest Rate Environment in MENA.” With Adrian Alter, Bashar Hlayhel, and Thomas Piontek. 2024. - Conducts cross-country corporate and banking sector stress tests for the MENA region under a “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment using granular micro data. - Results: - Corporate sector debt at risk may increase sizably from 12 to 30 percent of total corporate debt. - Banking systems would be broadly resilient in an adverse scenario featuring higher interest rates, corporate sector stress, and rising liquidity pressures. - Tier-1 capital ratios decline by 2.3 percentage points in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and 4.0 percentage points in non-GCC MENA countries. - In the cross-section of banks, banks with higher ex-ante vulnerabilities and state-owned banks suffer greater losses. - Capital losses in the adverse scenario could limit lending and adversely impact growth, though overall losses are characterized as manageable. ### Work in Progress - “The Energy Origins of the Global Inflation Surge”. With Jorge Alvarez. 2024. - “Low Interest Rates, Financial Intermediation, and Firm Competition”. With Puriya Abbassi. 2023. ### Analytical Contributions to Policy Publications - “Trade Patterns Amid Shocks and a Changing Geopolitical Landscape”, Chapter 3, April 2024 MCD REO. - “A Roadmap to Central Bank Digital Currency in the Middle East and Central Asia”, IMF MCD Departmental Paper. 2024. - “Oman 2023 Article IV Consultation Staff Report”. - “Higher for Longer: What are the Macrofinancial Risks?”, Chapter 3, October 2023 MCD REO. - “Monetary Policy: Where do the Middle East and Central Asia Stand?”, Chapter 2, April 2023 MCD REO. ### Research Experience - 2020 - 2021: Research Assistant for Prof. Markus Brunnermeier - 2019: Visiting Researcher, Bundesbank - 2018: Ph.D. Research Intern, Bundesbank - 2018: Research Assistant for Prof. Arlene Wong - 2017: Research Assistant for Prof. Atif Mian - 2015: Research Intern at Halle Institute for Economic Research ### Teaching - Princeton, Spring 2019: ECO 101: Introduction to Macroeconomics — Preceptor and Course Organizer for Prof. Elizabeth Bogan - Princeton, Fall 2019, Fall 2020: ECO 101: Introduction to Macroeconomics — Preceptor and Course Organizer for Prof. Alan Blinder - Princeton, Spring 2020: ECO 462/ FIN 515: Portfolio Theory and Asset Management — Preceptor for Professors Yacine Aït-Sahalia and Sebastian Merkel - Princeton, Spring 2021: ECO 363: Corporate Finance — Preceptor for Professor David Schoenherr ### Presentations (including scheduled) - 2024: EEA/ ESEM, BIS-CEPR-SCG-SFI Conference on Financial Intermediation (poster), ECB Conference on Financial Stability and Macroprudential Policy* - 2022: Boston Fed, ESRB, Fed Board, Frankfurt (SAFE), Georgia Tech, Mannheim, PIMCO - 2021: Princeton, AFFI Doctoral Workshop, QMU Economics and Finance PhD Workshop, Warwick Economics PhD Conference, German Economic Association, Inter Finance PhD Seminar, NFA PhD Workshop, FMA, Bundesbank Workshop Banks and Financial Markets, EGSC at WUSTL - 2020: EGSC at WUSTL, Princeton Macro Lunch, Princeton Finance Lunch - 2019: Princeton Finance Lunch ### Awards and Fellowships - Ieke van den Burg Prize (awarded by European Systemic Risk Board), 2022 - ReMatch Summer 2021 Funding (Mentorship Program), 2021 - Griswold Center for Economic Policy Graduate Student Fellowship, 2020–2021 - Princeton Economic Graduate Fellowship, 2016–2022 - Fellowship by Konrad-Adenauer Foundation (monthly stipend), 2013–2016 ### Other Activities - Panelist at JRCPPF Undergraduate Research in Economics & Finance Forum, 2021 - Organizer of Finance Ph.D. Student Lunch, 2020 – 2021 - Mentor for Undergraduate Students through ReMatch Mentorship Program, 2020 – 2021 ### References - Professor Atif Mian, Department of Economics, Bendheim Center for Finance, Princeton University; 609-258-6718; atif@princeton.edu - Professor Markus Brunnermeier, Department of Economics, Bendheim Center for Finance, Princeton University; 609-903-1549; markus@princeton.edu - Professor Motohiro Yogo, Department of Economics, Bendheim Center for Finance, Princeton University; 609-258-4467; myogo@princeton.edu ### Languages and Skills - Languages: German (native), French (native), Spanish (intermediate) - Software: Stata, MATLAB, R, Python, LATEX, Microsoft Office --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/cv/pdfs/thomas-kroen.pdf_