## MDS

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---

### Target audience, prerequisites, and evaluation
- Target audience: Mid-to-senior level officials in central banks and ministries of finance or economy involved in diagnosing the state of the macro-economy and making projections.  
- Prerequisites: Advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience, good quantitative skills, and proficiency in the use of Excel. It is highly recommended that applicants complete the online FPP.1x and FPP.2x courses and/or the face-to-face FPP course before enrolling in the face-to-face MDS or the online MDSx.  
- Performance evaluation: A multiple-choice test will be administered at the beginning and the end of the course to assess participants’ knowledge and the course’s learning impact.

### Learning objectives
- Analyze potential output and calculate output gaps, and diagnose the outlook for the economy.  
- Assess the stance of current fiscal, monetary & exchange rate, and financial policies.  
- Assess macro-financial linkages, including through the analysis of financial sector soundness indicators.  
- Assess the medium-term prospects of the economy, especially the sustainability of public and external debt, and identify impediments to long-term growth.  
- Identify possible external and internal economic risks and vulnerabilities to economic growth and identify policies to address them.

### MDS program structure (unit-level themes and instructional time)
- UNIT 0: Introductory Lecture: Course Overview  
  - Lecture 0 (0.5 hours): set out objectives; emphasize diagnostic tools focus; outline course; describe role of participant and counselor.  
  - C1. Case Study Introduction — Lecture C1 (1.5 hours): introduce case study exercise; highlight economic and political background; describe recent reforms and current government objectives; describe final workshop project.
- UNIT 1: Macroeconomic Framework  
  - Lecture 1 (1.5 hours): macroeconomic stability and financial stability; macroeconomic framework; introduces selected indicators table and flow of funds tables.  
  - Workshop 1 (1.5 hours): examine interrelationship among macroeconomic accounts; interpret selected indicators table using a country case study and selected indicators table review.
- UNIT 2: Supply and Productivity  
  - Lecture 2: Tools (1.5 hours): review measurement of GDP; define potential output and output gaps; introduce time series methods to measure potential output.  
  - Workshop 2 (1.5 hours): implement methods to estimate potential output; estimate potential output and output gaps using a variety of methods for case study country.  
  - Lecture 3: Growth Diagnostics and Structural Reform (1.5 hours): introduce growth accounting; production function approach to estimate potential output; growth diagnostics and structural reforms (including labor markets and unemployment).  
  - Workshop 3 (1.5 hours): diagnose case study country’s growth prospects; assess supply conditions; analyze Solow growth model; examine impediments to economic growth.
- UNIT 3: Analyzing Aggregate Demand  
  - Lecture 4 (1.5 hours): review expenditure decomposition of growth; analyze major components of aggregate demand; use business cycles and short-term indicators.  
  - Workshop 4 (1.5 hours): calculate contributions and use of high frequency indicators to assess short-run fluctuations; identify relative contributions to GDP growth of external and domestic demand; analyze trends in private consumption and investment.
- UNIT 4: Analyzing Inflation  
  - Lecture 5 (1.5 hours): review of inflation around world and region; costs of excessively high/low inflation; measurement of inflation, including headline and core; introduce Phillips curve and determinants of inflation.  
  - Workshop 5 (1.5 hours): measure inflation, calculate the Phillips curve, and assess inflation determinants; calculate headline, core, and trend inflation; analyze components and contributions; review recent regional inflation developments.
- UNIT 5: Assessing Monetary Policy  
  - Lecture 6 (1.5 hours): monetary policy frameworks (objectives and the fundamental trilemma; monetary policy regimes; role of macroprudential regulation); diagnostic tools (Taylor and inflation targeting rules); assess monetary policy stance.  
  - Workshop 6 (1.5 hours): acquire tools to assess stance of monetary policy; develop assessment tools using inflation expectations, real interest rates, yield curves, Taylor rules, and inflation targeting rules.
- UNIT 6: Assessing Macro-Financial Linkages  
  - Lecture 7 (1.5 hours): importance of assessing financial sector risks; impact of financial conditions on macro outlook and vice versa; assessment of depth of financial markets; feedback of financial conditions on real economy; review Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs) and Balance Sheet Approach (BSA).  
  - Workshop 7 (1.5 hours): calculate and interpret diagnostic tools (financial sector soundness and risk indicators); examine financial sector indicators and risk exposures; investigate financial linkages among sector balance sheets.
- UNIT 7: Assessing Fiscal Policy  
  - Lecture 8 (1.5 hours): review fiscal accounts and indicators; analysis of composition of expenditures and revenues; calculate cyclically adjusted and structural balances (aggregated and disaggregated approaches); review fiscal multipliers; assess fiscal policy stance; includes assessment of fiscal balances in resource-rich countries.  
  - Workshop 8 (1.5 hours): measure fiscal balances and assess fiscal stance; identify sources of changes in current fiscal position; compute primary balances; calculate cyclically-adjusted and structural balances; assess fiscal policy stance.
- UNIT 8: Assessing Fiscal Sustainability  
  - Lecture 9 (1.5 hours): define fiscal solvency and fiscal sustainability; link debt dynamics to government budget constraint; role of contingent liabilities from financial sector or entitlements; analysis of public debt dynamics; IMF debt sustainability framework: debt baseline and risk scenarios.  
  - Workshop 9 (1.5 hours): implement public debt dynamic equation using an abbreviated IMF debt sustainability framework; introduce debt sustainability assessments; develop baseline scenario; conduct sensitivity analysis to key assumptions; explore alternative debt sustainability scenarios.
- UNIT 9: Assessing the External Position and the Exchange Rate  
  - Lecture 10: Assessing the External Position (1.5 hours): review Balance of Payments accounts; analyze the Current Account and links to domestic demand (drivers, intertemporal choice, trade and savings-investment perspective; terms of trade and commodity prices); analyze the Capital and Financial Account; review external vulnerability indicators and crises.  
  - Workshop 10 (1.5 hours): analyze trends driving external accounts; assess whether trends create external risks.  
  - Lecture 11: Assessing Competitiveness and the Exchange Rate (1.5 hours): measures of competitiveness (price and non-price competitiveness; unit labor costs; export market shares); discuss equilibrium exchange rates (PPP-based, External Balance Assessment (EBA)).  
  - Workshop 11 (1.5 hours): implement methods to analyze competitiveness and exchange rate misalignment; compute export market shares; apply EBA methodology to regional case and comparators; consider misalignment in context of EBA results and external indicators.
- UNIT 10: External Debt Sustainability and Foreign Reserve Adequacy  
  - Lecture 12 (1.5 hours): introduce indicators of external risk; discuss the International Investment Position (IIP); examine IMF reserve adequacy metrics; introduce framework for external debt sustainability assessment.  
  - Workshop 12 (1.5 hours): assess external debt sustainability and reserve adequacy; analyze external debt sustainability and calculate reserve adequacy measures.
- UNIT 11: Assessing Risk  
  - Lecture 13 (1.5 hours): identify key macroeconomic vulnerabilities & risks (weak fundamentals; external risks including shocks from other countries; domestic risks including policy implementation and political risks); develop a taxonomy of crisis; present a risk assessment matrix.  
  - Workshop 13 (1.5 hours): derive a country risk assessment matrix based on evaluation of external and internal vulnerabilities; identify possible shocks, consider likelihood and potential impact.
- UNIT 12: Wrap-up  
  - Lecture 14 (1.0 hours): review key takeaways and key policy issues (macroeconomic policy mix; fiscal issues including structural and sustainability; financial stability; growth policy and structural reforms); review expectations for group presentations.

### Group project and assessment output
- Workshop 14 (10 hours) Objective: provide an overall assessment of the state of a selected economy.  
- Analysis delivered will:  
  - diagnose the current situation in the economy to inform policy decisions of authorities;  
  - specify areas of vulnerabilities;  
  - outline general directions for macroeconomic policy adjustment.  
- Output: A powerpoint presentation for a briefing with the Minister of Finance and the Governor of the Central Bank.

### Regional case studies (examples provided)
- Africa: South Africa (2010)  
- Asia: India (2018Q1); Indonesia (2017/2018Q3); Malaysia (2017); South Korea (2013); Sri Lanka (2018); Vietnam (2016)  
- Europe & Middle East: Georgia (under construction); Turkey (2015)  
- Western Hemisphere: Costa Rica (2013)

### MDSx (online) — target audience and access requirements
- Target audience: All government officials are welcome to register; particularly relevant for officials in central banks and ministries of finance or economy who are directly involved in diagnosing the state of the macro-economy and making projections.  
- Language: The course is offered in English.  
- Requirements and qualifications:  
  - Some knowledge of economics is helpful.  
  - Basic Excel skills and access to a computer with a reliable Internet connection and a Google Chrome web browser are essential.

### MDSx — course description, objectives, and pedagogy
- Presented by the IMF Institute, the online course is designed to build up participants’ ability to assess a country’s macroeconomic situation and emphasizes practical tools for day-to-day macroeconomic analysis.  
- The course covers assessments of: the current state of the macroeconomy; the stance of fiscal and monetary policy; financial stability; and the medium-term prospects of the economy, taking into account the sustainability of public and external debt, possible misalignments of the exchange rate, and vulnerabilities arising in the different sectors.  
- Pedagogy: The course uses a case study to illustrate application of tools and to show how they can contribute to the policymaking process.

### MDSx — course objectives (competencies upon completion)
- Analyze potential output and calculate output gaps, identify the expenditure composition of growth, measure inflation, and assess inflation sources.  
- Assess the stance of monetary and fiscal policy and interpret financial sector soundness and risk indicators.  
- Analyze public and external debt sustainability and the external position and evaluate possible exchange rate misalignment.  
- Assess the medium-term prospects of the economy, taking into account the sustainability of public and external debt, and identify impediments to long-term growth.

### MDSx — lecture-by-lecture syllabus (modules and key topics)
- Lecture 1 - Macroeconomic Framework: Describe macroeconomic stability and financial stability; present the macroeconomic framework; introduce selected indicators table and flow of funds tables.  
- Lecture 2 - Supply and Productivity - Tools (Module 1 - Supply and Productivity): Review measurement of GDP   Supply Constraint; define potential output and output gaps     The Cobb-Douglas Approach; introduce time series methods to estimate potential output   Interpreting the Growth Decomposition.  
- Lecture 3 - Supply and Productivity – Growth Diagnostics and Structural Reform (Module 2 - Potential Output and Output Gaps): Discuss production function approach to estimate potential output; Aggregate Supply and Aggregate Demand, the Price Level and Equilibrium; introduce growth accounting; Potential Output and Output Gaps; describe growth diagnostics and discuss structural reform; Diagnostic Tools - Estimating Potential Output/Output Gap.  
- Lecture 4 - Analyzing Aggregate Demand (Module 3 - Analyzing Aggregate Demand): Review expenditure decomposition of growth    Growth Decomposition in Excel and Its Interpretation; analyze major components of aggregate demand    Analysis of Consumption and Investment; describe the use of business cycles and short-term indicators to understand short-term fluctuations    Aggregate Demand, the Business Cycle, and Co-movements.  
- Lecture 5 - Analyzing Inflation (Module 4 - Analyzing Inflation): Discuss cost of excessively high/low inflation   Concepts and Measurements; describe the measurement of inflation, including headline and core inflation   Determinants of Inflation; introduce the Phillips curve and determinants of inflation   The Phillips Curve.  
- Lecture 6 - Analyzing Monetary Policy (Module 5 - Analyzing Monetary Policy): Describe monetary policy frameworks   Keys for Monetary Policy Diagnostics; introduce Taylor and inflation targeting rules   Linking Tools to Frameworks and Mechanisms; assess monetary policy stance   Diagnostic Tools.  
- Lecture 7 - Assessing Macro-Financial Linkages (Module 6 - Macrofinancial Linkages): Motivate the importance of assessing financial sector risks   A first look at the banking system balance sheet: capital adequacy and asset quality; highlight the impact of financial conditions to macroeconomic outlook and vice a versa   Looking further: Vulnerabilities arising from shocks to earnings, liquidity, and exchange rates; review financial sector soundness indicators   Introducing variability: Z-score and other measures.  
- Lecture 8 - Assessing Fiscal Policy (Module 7 - Fiscal Policy): Review fiscal accounts   Cyclically-Adjusted Fiscal Balance; calculate and interpret the cyclically adjusted and structural fiscal balances   Fiscal Stance and Fiscal Impulse; assess the stance of fiscal policy   Fiscal Multipliers.  
- Lecture 9 - Assessing Fiscal Sustainability (Module 8 - Fiscal Sustainability): Analysis of public debt dynamics   Public Debt Dynamics; introduce fiscal sustainability assessment   Stabilizing Debt; show IMF debt sustainability framework   Macro-Fiscal Risks.  
- Lecture 10 - Assessing the External Position (Module 9 - The External Position): Review the balance of payment accounts   An Overview of the Current Account; analyze the current account and links to domestic demand   Alternative Perspectives of the Current Account; analyze the capital and financial accounts   Drivers of The Current Account.  
- Lecture 11 - Assessing Competitiveness and the Exchange Rate (Module 10 - The Real Exchange Rate and Competitiveness): Describe measures of competitiveness   Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rates; present and illustrate IMF approaches to exchange rate assessments   External Balance Assessment.  
- Lecture 12 - Assessing External Debt Sustainability and Foreign Reserve Adequacy (Module 11 - External Sustainability and External Vulnerability): Examine IMF reserve adequacy metric   External Debt Sustainability; introduce framework for external debt sustainability assessment   Reserve Adequacy.  
- Lecture 13 - Assessing Risk (Module 12 - Risks and Vulnerabilities): Identify key macroeconomic vulnerabilities   Risks and Vulnerabilities; develop a taxonomy of crisis   Interrelated Risks and Vulnerabilities; describe risk assessment matrix   The Risk Assessment Matrix (RAM).

*International Monetary Fund.*

### 0. Overview

### 0. Overview

### Target audience, prerequisites, and evaluation
- Target audience: Mid-to-senior level officials in central banks and ministries of finance or economy involved in diagnosing the state of the macro-economy and making projections.  
- Prerequisites: Advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience, good quantitative skills, and proficiency in the use of Excel. It is highly recommended that applicants complete the online FPP.1x and FPP.2x courses and/or the face-to-face FPP course before enrolling in the face-to-face MDS or the online MDSx.  
- Performance evaluation: A multiple-choice test will be administered at the beginning and the end of the course to assess participants’ knowledge and the course’s learning impact.

### Learning objectives
- Analyze potential output and calculate output gaps, and diagnose the outlook for the economy.  
- Assess the stance of current fiscal, monetary & exchange rate, and financial policies.  
- Assess macro-financial linkages, including through the analysis of financial sector soundness indicators.  
- Assess the medium-term prospects of the economy, especially the sustainability of public and external debt, and identify impediments to long-term growth.  
- Identify possible external and internal economic risks and vulnerabilities to economic growth and identify policies to address them.

### MDS program structure (unit-level themes and instructional time)
- UNIT 0: Introductory Lecture: Course Overview  
  - Lecture 0 (0.5 hours): set out objectives; emphasize diagnostic tools focus; outline course; describe role of participant and counselor.  
  - C1. Case Study Introduction — Lecture C1 (1.5 hours): introduce case study exercise; highlight economic and political background; describe recent reforms and current government objectives; describe final workshop project.

- UNIT 1: Macroeconomic Framework  
  - Lecture 1 (1.5 hours): macroeconomic stability and financial stability; macroeconomic framework; introduces selected indicators table and flow of funds tables.  
  - Workshop 1 (1.5 hours): examine interrelationship among macroeconomic accounts; interpret selected indicators table using a country case study and selected indicators table review.

- UNIT 2: Supply and Productivity  
  - Lecture 2: Tools (1.5 hours): review measurement of GDP; define potential output and output gaps; introduce time series methods to measure potential output.  
  - Workshop 2 (1.5 hours): implement methods to estimate potential output; estimate potential output and output gaps using a variety of methods for case study country.  
  - Lecture 3: Growth Diagnostics and Structural Reform (1.5 hours): introduce growth accounting; production function approach to estimate potential output; growth diagnostics and structural reforms (including labor markets and unemployment).  
  - Workshop 3 (1.5 hours): diagnose case study country’s growth prospects; assess supply conditions; analyze Solow growth model; examine impediments to economic growth.

- UNIT 3: Analyzing Aggregate Demand  
  - Lecture 4 (1.5 hours): review expenditure decomposition of growth; analyze major components of aggregate demand; use business cycles and short-term indicators.  
  - Workshop 4 (1.5 hours): calculate contributions and use of high frequency indicators to assess short-run fluctuations; identify relative contributions to GDP growth of external and domestic demand; analyze trends in private consumption and investment.

- UNIT 4: Analyzing Inflation  
  - Lecture 5 (1.5 hours): review of inflation around world and region; costs of excessively high/low inflation; measurement of inflation, including headline and core; introduce Phillips curve and determinants of inflation.  
  - Workshop 5 (1.5 hours): measure inflation, calculate the Phillips curve, and assess inflation determinants; calculate headline, core, and trend inflation; analyze components and contributions; review recent regional inflation developments.

- UNIT 5: Assessing Monetary Policy  
  - Lecture 6 (1.5 hours): monetary policy frameworks (objectives and the fundamental trilemma; monetary policy regimes; role of macroprudential regulation); diagnostic tools (Taylor and inflation targeting rules); assess monetary policy stance.  
  - Workshop 6 (1.5 hours): acquire tools to assess stance of monetary policy; develop assessment tools using inflation expectations, real interest rates, yield curves, Taylor rules, and inflation targeting rules.

- UNIT 6: Assessing Macro-Financial Linkages  
  - Lecture 7 (1.5 hours): importance of assessing financial sector risks; impact of financial conditions on macro outlook and vice versa; assessment of depth of financial markets; feedback of financial conditions on real economy; review Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs) and Balance Sheet Approach (BSA).  
  - Workshop 7 (1.5 hours): calculate and interpret diagnostic tools (financial sector soundness and risk indicators); examine financial sector indicators and risk exposures; investigate financial linkages among sector balance sheets.

- UNIT 7: Assessing Fiscal Policy  
  - Lecture 8 (1.5 hours): review fiscal accounts and indicators; analysis of composition of expenditures and revenues; calculate cyclically adjusted and structural balances (aggregated and disaggregated approaches); review fiscal multipliers; assess fiscal policy stance; includes assessment of fiscal balances in resource-rich countries.  
  - Workshop 8 (1.5 hours): measure fiscal balances and assess fiscal stance; identify sources of changes in current fiscal position; compute primary balances; calculate cyclically-adjusted and structural balances; assess fiscal policy stance.

- UNIT 8: Assessing Fiscal Sustainability  
  - Lecture 9 (1.5 hours): define fiscal solvency and fiscal sustainability; link debt dynamics to government budget constraint; role of contingent liabilities from financial sector or entitlements; analysis of public debt dynamics; IMF debt sustainability framework: debt baseline and risk scenarios.  
  - Workshop 9 (1.5 hours): implement public debt dynamic equation using an abbreviated IMF debt sustainability framework; introduce debt sustainability assessments; develop baseline scenario; conduct sensitivity analysis to key assumptions; explore alternative debt sustainability scenarios.

- UNIT 9: Assessing the External Position and the Exchange Rate  
  - Lecture 10: Assessing the External Position (1.5 hours): review Balance of Payments accounts; analyze the Current Account and links to domestic demand (drivers, intertemporal choice, trade and savings-investment perspective; terms of trade and commodity prices); analyze the Capital and Financial Account; review external vulnerability indicators and crises.  
  - Workshop 10 (1.5 hours): analyze trends driving external accounts; assess whether trends create external risks.  
  - Lecture 11: Assessing Competitiveness and the Exchange Rate (1.5 hours): measures of competitiveness (price and non-price competitiveness; unit labor costs; export market shares); discuss equilibrium exchange rates (PPP-based, External Balance Assessment (EBA)).  
  - Workshop 11 (1.5 hours): implement methods to analyze competitiveness and exchange rate misalignment; compute export market shares; apply EBA methodology to regional case and comparators; consider misalignment in context of EBA results and external indicators.

- UNIT 10: External Debt Sustainability and Foreign Reserve Adequacy  
  - Lecture 12 (1.5 hours): introduce indicators of external risk; discuss the International Investment Position (IIP); examine IMF reserve adequacy metrics; introduce framework for external debt sustainability assessment.  
  - Workshop 12 (1.5 hours): assess external debt sustainability and reserve adequacy; analyze external debt sustainability and calculate reserve adequacy measures.

- UNIT 11: Assessing Risk  
  - Lecture 13 (1.5 hours): identify key macroeconomic vulnerabilities & risks (weak fundamentals; external risks including shocks from other countries; domestic risks including policy implementation and political risks); develop a taxonomy of crisis; present a risk assessment matrix.  
  - Workshop 13 (1.5 hours): derive a country risk assessment matrix based on evaluation of external and internal vulnerabilities; identify possible shocks, consider likelihood and potential impact.

- UNIT 12: Wrap-up  
  - Lecture 14 (1.0 hours): review key takeaways and key policy issues (macroeconomic policy mix; fiscal issues including structural and sustainability; financial stability; growth policy and structural reforms); review expectations for group presentations.

### Group project and assessment output
- Workshop 14 (10 hours) Objective: provide an overall assessment of the state of a selected economy.  
- Analysis delivered will:  
  - diagnose the current situation in the economy to inform policy decisions of authorities;  
  - specify areas of vulnerabilities;  
  - outline general directions for macroeconomic policy adjustment.  
- Output: A powerpoint presentation for a briefing with the Minister of Finance and the Governor of the Central Bank.

### Regional case studies (examples provided)
- Africa: South Africa (2010)  
- Asia: India (2018Q1); Indonesia (2017/2018Q3); Malaysia (2017); South Korea (2013); Sri Lanka (2018); Vietnam (2016)  
- Europe & Middle East: Georgia (under construction); Turkey (2015)  
- Western Hemisphere: Costa Rica (2013)

*International Monetary Fund.*

### ANNEX 2. DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES OF THE ONLINE

### ANNEX 2. DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES OF THE ONLINE VERSION (MDSX)

### Target audience and access requirements
- Target audience: All government officials are welcome to register; particularly relevant for officials in central banks and ministries of finance or economy who are directly involved in diagnosing the state of the macro-economy and making projections.
- Language: The course is offered in English.
- Requirements and qualifications:
  - Some knowledge of economics is helpful.
  - Basic Excel skills and access to a computer with a reliable Internet connection and a Google Chrome web browser are essential.

### Course description and instructional focus
- Presented by the IMF Institute, the online course is designed to build up participants’ ability to assess a country’s macroeconomic situation and emphasizes practical tools for day-to-day macroeconomic analysis.
- The course covers assessments of:
  - the current state of the macroeconomy;
  - the stance of fiscal and monetary policy;
  - financial stability; and
  - the medium-term prospects of the economy, taking into account the sustainability of public and external debt, possible misalignments of the exchange rate, and vulnerabilities arising in the different sectors.
- Pedagogy: The course uses a case study to illustrate application of tools and to show how they can contribute to the policymaking process.

### Course objectives (expected competencies upon completion)
- Analyze potential output and calculate output gaps, identify the expenditure composition of growth, measure inflation, and assess inflation sources.
- Assess the stance of monetary and fiscal policy and interpret financial sector soundness and risk indicators.
- Analyze public and external debt sustainability and the external position and evaluate possible exchange rate misalignment.
- Assess the medium-term prospects of the economy, taking into account the sustainability of public and external debt, and identify impediments to long-term growth.

### Lecture-by-lecture syllabus (modules and key topics)
- Lecture 1 - Macroeconomic Framework
  - Describe macroeconomic stability and financial stability
  - Present the macroeconomic framework
  - Introduce selected indicators table and flow of funds tables

- Lecture 2 - Supply and Productivity - Tools (Module 1 - Supply and Productivity)
  - Review measurement of GDP   Supply Constraint
  - Define potential output and output gaps     The Cobb-Douglas Approach
  - Introduce time series methods to estimate potential output   Interpreting the Growth Decomposition

- Lecture 3 - Supply and Productivity – Growth Diagnostics and Structural Reform (Module 2 - Potential Output and Output Gaps)
  - Discuss production function approach to estimate potential output
    Aggregate Supply and Aggregate Demand, the Price Level and Equilibrium
  - Introduce growth accounting
    Potential Output and Output Gaps
  - Describe growth diagnostics and discuss structural reform
    Diagnostic Tools - Estimating Potential Output/Output Gap

- Lecture 4 - Analyzing Aggregate Demand (Module 3 - Analyzing Aggregate Demand)
  - Review expenditure decomposition of growth
    Growth Decomposition in Excel and Its Interpretation
  - Analyze major components of aggregate demand
    Analysis of Consumption and Investment
  - Describe the use of business cycles and short-term indicators to understand short-term fluctuations
    Aggregate Demand, the Business Cycle, and Co-movements

- Lecture 5 - Analyzing Inflation (Module 4 - Analyzing Inflation)
  - Discuss cost of excessively high/low inflation   Concepts and Measurements
  - Describe the measurement of inflation, including headline and core inflation   Determinants of Inflation
  - Introduce the Phillips curve and determinants of inflation   The Phillips Curve

- Lecture 6 - Analyzing Monetary Policy (Module 5 - Analyzing Monetary Policy)
  - Describe monetary policy frameworks   Keys for Monetary Policy Diagnostics
  - Introduce Taylor and inflation targeting rules   Linking Tools to Frameworks and Mechanisms
  - Assess monetary policy stance   Diagnostic Tools

- Lecture 7 - Assessing Macro-Financial Linkages (Module 6 - Macrofinancial Linkages)
  - Motivate the importance of assessing financial sector risks   A first look at the banking system balance sheet: capital adequacy and asset quality
  - Highlight the impact of financial conditions to macroeconomic outlook and vice a versa   Looking further: Vulnerabilities arising from shocks to earnings, liquidity, and exchange rates
  - Review financial sector soundness indicators   Introducing variability: Z-score and other measures

- Lecture 8 - Assessing Fiscal Policy (Module 7 - Fiscal Policy)
  - Review fiscal accounts   Cyclically-Adjusted Fiscal Balance
  - Calculate and interpret the cyclically adjusted and structural fiscal balances   Fiscal Stance and Fiscal Impulse
  - Assess the stance of fiscal policy   Fiscal Multipliers

- Lecture 9 - Assessing Fiscal Sustainability (Module 8 - Fiscal Sustainability)
  - Analysis of public debt dynamics   Public Debt Dynamics
  - Introduce fiscal sustainability assessment   Stabilizing Debt
  - Show IMF debt sustainability framework   Macro-Fiscal Risks

- Lecture 10 - Assessing the External Position (Module 9 - The External Position)
  - Review the balance of payment accounts   An Overview of the Current Account
  - Analyze the current account and links to domestic demand   Alternative Perspectives of the Current Account
  - Analyze the capital and financial accounts   Drivers of The Current Account

- Lecture 11 - Assessing Competitiveness and the Exchange Rate (Module 10 - The Real Exchange Rate and Competitiveness)
  - Describe measures of competitiveness   Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rates
  - Present and illustrate IMF approaches to exchange rate assessments   External Balance Assessment

- Lecture 12 - Assessing External Debt Sustainability and Foreign Reserve Adequacy (Module 11 - External Sustainability and External Vulnerability)
  - Examine IMF reserve adequacy metric   External Debt Sustainability
  - Introduce framework for external debt sustainability assessment   Reserve Adequacy

- Lecture 13 - Assessing Risk (Module 12 - Risks and Vulnerabilities)
  - Identify key macroeconomic vulnerabilities   Risks and Vulnerabilities
  - Develop a taxonomy of crisis   Interrelated Risks and Vulnerabilities
  - Describe risk assessment matrix   The Risk Assessment Matrix (RAM)

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/icd/mds.pdf_