## Statement by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Statement by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/meetings/2026/annual/imfc/opec.pdf)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/meetings/2026/annual/imfc/opec.pdf.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/meetings/2026/annual/imfc/opec.pdf.json)

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### Global economic outlook
- Global economic growth is forecast at a robust 3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027.
- Major-economy forecasts:
  - US economic growth is forecast at 2.2% for 2026 and 2.0% for 2027.
  - Eurozone economic growth is forecast at 0.8% for 2026 and 1% for 2027.
  - Japan economic growth is forecast at 0.7% for 2026 and 0.8% for 2027.
  - China economic growth is forecast at 4.6% for 2026 and 4.5% for 2027.
  - India economic growth is forecast at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027.
  - Brazil economic growth is forecast at 2.0% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027.
  - Russia economic growth is forecast at 1.1% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.
- Drivers and risks noted:
  - Robust momentum in AI spending and consumer spending across major economies are anticipated principal drivers through end-2026.
  - Continued government-led support in China and India’s growth dynamics are highlighted.
  - Evolution of inflation and related developments in global financial conditions require close monitoring.

### Oil demand forecasts
- World oil demand growth in 2026 is forecast to increase by around 0.4 mb/d to average 105.8 mb/d.
- Regional and product details for 2026:
  - OECD oil demand is expected to ease by about 110 tb/d, y-o-y, to average 46.1 mb/d.
  - OECD Americas oil demand is expected to show y-o-y growth of about 290 tb/d, y-o-y.
  - OECD Europe oil demand is expected to decline by 190 tb/d, y-o-y.
  - OECD Asia-Pacific requirements are expected to contract by an average of 210 tb/d, y-o-y.
  - Non-OECD total oil demand is expected to rise by about 0.5 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 59.7 mb/d in 2026.
  - All non-OECD regions are expected to contribute to requirements except the Middle East, which is forecast to show a slight decline.
  - Transportation fuels – gasoline and jet/kerosene – along with NGLs/LPG and the "other products" category are expected to drive global oil demand in 2026.
- 2027 outlook:
  - Global oil demand is expected to rebound and increase by a considerable 2.4 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 108.2 mb/d.
  - OECD oil demand is forecast to increase by about 0.4 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2027.
  - Non-OECD oil demand is estimated to increase by about 2 mb/d, y-o-y, with India and Other Asia expected to lead, closely followed by China and the Middle East.
  - Transportation fuels and petrochemical feedstock are forecast to drive oil demand growth recovery in 2027.

### Supply and production
- Non-DoC liquids production forecasts:
  - Non-DoC liquids production in 2026 is forecast to grow by 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y.
  - Main drivers for 2026 growth are expected to be Brazil, the US, Canada and Argentina.
  - US liquids production is forecast to increase by 0.4 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, mainly driven by growth in NGLs output.
  - For 2027, non-DoC liquids supply is forecast to grow by another 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, led by Qatar, Canada, Brazil and Argentina.
- DoC liquids:
  - DoC NGLs and non-conventional liquids production in 2026 is forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d to average 8.7 mb/d.
  - DoC NGLs and non-conventional liquids production in 2027 is forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d to average 8.9 mb/d.
- Reported production levels:
  - According to secondary sources, DoC crude oil production increased by about 0.3 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 38.1 mb/d in August   2026, leading to an average of 37.3 mb/d since the start of the year.

### Investment and CAPEX
- Global oil and gas E&P CAPEX is expected to contract by approximately 2% in 2026, y-o-y, to an average of $613 bn.
- The 2026 CAPEX level is noted as substantially below the 2014 high of $878 bn.
- A moderate 6% expansion is forecast for 2027, y-o-y, lifting average spending to about $651 billion.
- Statement emphasizes that robust upstream investment remains indispensable for meeting future energy demand and sustaining adequate spare capacity.

### Stocks, inventories, and forward cover
- OECD commercial oil stocks:
  - Total OECD commercial oil stocks increased by 9.8 mb, m-o-m, in July, as per preliminary July data.
  - Stocks stood at 2,763 mb, which was about 57 mb lower than the same time one year ago, about 47.9 mb below the latest five-year average, and about 206.4 mb below the 2015–2019 average.
  - Crude and product stocks increased by 5.5 mb and 4.3 mb, m-o-m, respectively.
  - OECD commercial crude stocks stood at 1,313 mb, about 29.2 mb lower than the same time one year ago, about 35.2 mb below the latest five-year average and 149.7 mb below the 2015–2019 average.
  - OECD product stocks stood at 1,451 mb in July, 27.7 mb lower than the same time a year ago, 12.6 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 56.7 mb below the 2015–2019 average.
- Days of forward cover:
  - OECD commercial stocks increased by 0.3 days, m-o-m, in July, to stand at 59.3 days.
  - This is 1 day lower than the level registered in July 2025, 1.4 days below the latest five-year average, and 3.2 days below the 2015–2019 average.
  - Regional days-of-cover:
    - OECD Americas was 3.4 days below the latest five-year average, at 56.9 days.
    - OECD Europe was 0.6 days below the five-year average, at 67.7 days.
    - OECD Asia-Pacific stood 1.8 days above the latest five-year average, at 51.6 days.

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/meetings/2026/annual/imfc/opec.pdf_