## pr23439-sinhala-sri-lanka ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [pr23439-sinhala-sri-lanka](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/news/press-release/2023/pr23439-sinhala-sri-lanka.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/files/news/press-release/2023/pr23439-sinhala-sri-lanka.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/news/press-release/2023/pr23439-sinhala-sri-lanka.pdf.json) --- ### IMF Board decision and financing package - The IMF Executive Board approved a 48-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement for Sri Lanka and completed the first review under the program. - IMF financing immediately available: �. ගැ. �. ��යන 254� (එ. ජ. ෙඩාල� ��යන 337� පමණ) for immediate disbursement. - With additional approvals, total IMF support envisaged: �. ගැ. �. ��යන 508� (එ.ජ. ෙඩාල� ��යන 670� පමණ). - At program approval (2023 මා�� 20), Sri Lanka’s total financing needs under the EFF were estimated at �. ගැ. � ��යන 2.286� (එ.ජ. ෙඩාල� ��යන 3� පමණ). ### Program implementation and performance - Program implementation described as broadly satisfactory with most quantitative and structural performance criteria met. - Shortfalls: one quantitative performance criterion (other than the fiscal primary balance) missed for end-September 2023; some are recorded as either met with delay or nonobserved. - IMF staff highlighted improved policy transparency and governance as important steps. - Authorities’ commitment to fiscal consolidation, restoration of debt sustainability, rebuilding reserves, and lowering inflation received praise. ### Policy priorities and recommendations - Emphasize sustained implementation of policies to: - Restore debt sustainability. - Raise government revenue. - Rebuild fiscal buffers. - Reduce inflation and stabilize macroeconomic conditions. - Strengthen governance and policy transparency. - Specific priorities mentioned: - Revenue-based fiscal reforms to strengthen fiscal consolidation and reduce debt. - Monetary policy to focus on inflation objectives and preserve macro-financial stability. - Strengthening bank supervision, liquidity planning, and macroprudential policies to safeguard financial sector stability. - Protecting and enhancing social safety nets to shield the most vulnerable and reduce poverty and risk exposure. - The IMF stressed that maintaining program momentum and completing reforms, including revenue mobilization, will be critical to achieving durable macroeconomic stabilization and to securing additional financing support. ### Selected economic projections and indicators (2020–2028) - Real GDP: 2020 -4.6; 2021 3.5; 2022 -7.8; 2023 -3.6; 2024 1.8; 2025 2.7; 2026 3.0; 2027 3.1; 2028 3.1 - Inflation (average, Colombo CPI): 2020 4.6; 2021 6.0; 2022 45.2; 2023 17.9; 2024 7.9; 2025 5.6; 2026 5.4; 2027 5.3; 2028 5.2 - Inflation (end-of-period, Colombo CPI): 2020 4.2; 2021 12.1; 2022 54.5; 2023 4.8; 2024 6.6; 2025 5.6; 2026 5.4; 2027 5.3; 2028 5.2 - GDP Deflator growth: 2020 3.3; 2021 8.5; 2022 48.8; 2023 20.4; 2024 10.1; 2025 6.3; 2026 5.4; 2027 5.3; 2028 5.2 - Nominal GDP growth: 2020 -1.5; 2021 12.3; 2022 37.2; 2023 16.1; 2024 12.1; 2025 9.1; 2026 8.6; 2027 8.5; 2028 8.5 - National savings (percent of GDP): 2020 31.6; 2021 33.0; 2022 33.4; 2023 31.8; 2024 30.8; 2025 30.5; 2026 30.9; 2027 31.4; 2028 31.4 - Government savings: 2020 -8.3; 2021 -7.3; 2022 -6.2; 2023 -6.0; 2024 -3.1; 2025 -0.9; 2026 -0.3; 2027 0.3; 2028 0.6 - Private savings: 2020 39.9; 2021 40.3; 2022 39.7; 2023 37.8; 2024 33.9; 2025 31.4; 2026 31.3; 2027 31.1; 2028 30.8 - National investment (percent of GDP): 2020 33.0; 2021 36.7; 2022 34.4; 2023 30.3; 2024 31.6; 2025 31.6; 2026 32.0; 2027 32.4; 2028 32.3 - Government investment: 2020 6.2; 2021 7.4; 2022 7.0; 2023 4.1; 2024 5.1; 2025 5.1; 2026 5.0; 2027 5.0; 2028 5.0 - Private investment: 2020 26.8; 2021 29.4; 2022 27.4; 2023 26.2; 2024 26.5; 2025 26.5; 2026 27.0; 2027 27.4; 2028 27.2 - Savings-Investment balance (percent of GDP): 2020 -1.4; 2021 -3.7; 2022 -1.0; 2023 1.5; 2024 -0.8; 2025 -1.1; 2026 -1.1; 2027 -1.0; 2028 -0.8 - Government balance contribution: 2020 -14.5; 2021 -14.7; 2022 -13.3; 2023 -10.1; 2024 -8.2; 2025 -6.0; 2026 -5.3; 2027 -4.7; 2028 -4.4 - Private balance contribution: 2020 13.1; 2021 11.0; 2022 12.3; 2023 11.6; 2024 7.5; 2025 4.9; 2026 4.3; 2027 3.8; 2028 3.6 - Public finance (percent of GDP): - Revenue and grants: 2020 8.8; 2021 8.3; 2022 8.3; 2023 10.2; 2024 13.0; 2025 15.0; 2026 15.0; 2027 15.1; 2028 15.2 - Expenditure: 2020 21.0; 2021 20.0; 2022 18.5; 2023 19.0; 2024 20.3; 2025 20.3; 2026 19.7; 2027 19.3; 2028 19.1 - Primary balance: 2020 -5.9; 2021 -5.7; 2022 -3.7; 2023 -0.7; 2024 0.8; 2025 2.3; 2026 2.3; 2027 2.3; 2028 2.3 - Central government balance: 2020 -12.2; 2021 -11.7; 2022 -10.2; 2023 -8.8; 2024 -7.3; 2025 -5.3; 2026 -4.7; 2027 -4.2; 2028 -3.9 - Central government gross financing needs: 2020 26.1; 2021 31.0; 2022 33.9; 2023 27.8; 2024 25.3; 2025 23.0; 2026 19.8; 2027 17.1; 2028 12.3 - Central government debt: 2020 96.7; 2021 102.7; 2022 115.5; 2023 107.8; 2024 110.3; 2025 111.4; 2026 110.8; 2027 108.0; 2028 104.6 - Public debt: 2020 105.1; 2021 114.9; 2022 125.8; 2023 114.1; 2024 115.9; 2025 116.3; 2026 115.1; 2027 111.7; 2028 107.9 - Money and credit (percent change, end of period): - Reserve money: 2020 3.4; 2021 35.4; 2022 3.3; 2023 9.0; 2024 16.9; 2025 9.1; 2026 8.6; 2027 8.5; 2028 8.5 - Broad money: 2020 23.4; 2021 13.2; 2022 15.5; 2023 7.0; 2024 18.2; 2025 9.1; 2026 8.6; 2027 8.5; 2028 8.5 - Domestic credit: 2020 24.6; 2021 19.5; 2022 18.8; 2023 5.5; 2024 10.6; 2025 3.0; 2026 2.0; 2027 3.7; 2028 3.2 - Credit to private sector: 2020 6.5; 2021 13.1; 2022 6.4; 2023 0.3; 2024 7.7; 2025 8.7; 2026 9.4; 2027 9.6; 2028 9.5 - Credit to private sector (adjusted for inflation): 2020 1.9; 2021 7.2; 2022 -38.8; 2023 -17.6; 2024 -0.2; 2025 3.2; 2026 4.0; 2027 4.3; 2028 4.3 - Credit to central government and public corporations: 2020 53.6; 2021 26.5; 2022 31.1; 2023 9.8; 2024 12.8; 2025 -1.0; 2026 -3.7; 2027 -1.5; 2028 -3.0 - Balance of Payments (in millions of U.S. dollars): - Exports: 2020 10,048; 2021 12,499; 2022 13,106; 2023 12,365; 2024 13,555; 2025 14,377; 2026 15,111; 2027 15,846; 2028 16,651 - Imports: 2020 -16,055; 2021 -20,638; 2022 -18,291; 2023 -17,887; 2024 -20,718; 2025 -23,002; 2026 -24,322; 2027 -25,144; 2028 -26,049 - Current account balance: 2020 -1,187; 2021 -3,285; 2022 -744; 2023 1,232; 2024 -634; 2025 -908; 2026 -879; 2027 -846; 2028 -764 - Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2020 -1.4; 2021 -3.7; 2022 -1.0; 2023 1.5; 2024 -0.8; 2025 -1.1; 2026 -1.1; 2027 -1.0; 2028 -0.8 - Current account balance net of interest (percent of GDP): 2020 0.5; 2021 -2.1; 2022 0.1; 2023 2.9; 2024 1.2; 2025 0.9; 2026 0.9; 2027 1.1; 2028 1.3 - Export value growth (percent): 2020 -15.9; 2021 24.4; 2022 4.9; 2023 -5.7; 2024 9.6; 2025 6.1; 2026 5.1; 2027 4.9; 2028 5.1 - Import value growth (percent): 2020 -19.5; 2021 28.5; 2022 -11.4; 2023 -2.2; 2024 15.8; 2025 11.0; 2026 5.7; 2027 3.4; 2028 3.6 - Gross official reserves (end of period): - In millions of U.S. dollars: 2020 5,664; 2021 3,139; 2022 1,898; 2023 3,806; 2024 5,346; 2025 7,477; 2026 9,894; 2027 13,525; 2028 15,320 - In months of prospective imports of goods & services: 2020 3.2; 2021 2.0; 2022 1.2; 2023 2.0; 2024 2.6; 2025 3.4; 2026 4.3; 2027 5.7; 2028 6.2 - In percent of ARA composite metric: 2020 46.0; 2021 24.7; 2022 16.4; 2023 33.2; 2024 44.7; 2025 59.9; 2026 77.1; 2027 99.7; 2028 109.6 - Usable Gross official reserves (end of period): - In millions of U.S. dollars: 2020 5,664; 2021 1,565; 2022 462; 2023 2,371; 2024 3,910; 2025 7,477; 2026 9,894; 2027 13,525; 2028 15,320 - In months of prospective imports of goods & services: 2020 3.2; 2021 1.0; 2022 0.3; 2023 1.3; 2024 1.9; 2025 3.4; 2026 4.3; 2027 5.7; 2028 6.2 - In percent of ARA composite metric: 2020 46.0; 2021 12.3; 2022 4.0; 2023 20.7; 2024 32.7; 2025 59.9; 2026 77.1; 2027 99.7; 2028 109.6 - External debt (public and private): - In billions of U.S. dollars: 2020 53.4; 2021 58.4; 2022 57.4; 2023 53.8; 2024 55.5; 2025 57.7; 2026 59.9; 2027 63.4; 2028 65.1 - As a percent of GDP: 2020 63.2; 2021 65.9; 2022 76.7; 2023 64.7; 2024 68.0; 2025 70.4; 2026 71.8; 2027 72.7; 2028 70.3 - Memorandum items: - Nominal GDP (in billions of rupees): 2020 15,672; 2021 17,600; 2022 24,148; 2023 28,033; 2024 31,422; 2025 34,291; 2026 37,226; 2027 40,397; 2028 43,812 - REER appreciation (percent, period average): 2020 0.6; 2021 -6.0; 2022 -4.8; 2023 -5.2; 2024 -3.7; 2025 -5.8; 2026 -4.0; 2027 -1.5; 2028 0.0 - Exchange Rate (period average): 2020 185.6; 2021 198.8; 2022 322.6; 2023 ...; 2024 ...; 2025 ...; 2026 ...; 2027 ...; 2028 ... - Exchange Rate (end of period): 2020 186.4; 2021 200.4; 2022 363.1; 2023 ...; 2024 ...; 2025 ...; 2026 ...; 2027 ...; 2028 ... *Source: Data provided by the Sri Lankan authorities; and IMF staff estimates.* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/news/press-release/2023/pr23439-sinhala-sri-lanka.pdf_