## A Post-Pandemic Assessment of the Sustainable Development Goals

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [A Post-Pandemic Assessment of the Sustainable Development Goals](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/news/seminars/2021/sdg-event/benedek-gemayel-ati-presentation-sdn-093021.pdf)

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### Context and background
- Presentation by Dora Benedek and Edward Gemayel, International Monetary Fund, IMF AFRICA TRAINING INSTITUTE, SEPTEMBER 30, 2021.
- SDG Composite Index, 2020 (Range: 0-100). Source: 2020 SDG Index and Dashboard Reports. Note: The Index is based on pre-COVID19 data. Plots exclude extreme values for EMs and AEs.
- COVID-19 Deaths and Cases, 2020-2021 (Millions of people). Source: World Health Organization as of Sep 19, 2021.
- Real Growth Rates, 2018-2024 (Percent). Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook.
- IMF Resources Committed to Low Income Countries (USD billions). Source: IMF Staff calculations.

### Macroeconomic impact of the pandemic
- Estimated Change in Global Extreme Poverty Rates due to COVID-19 (Millions of people). Source: IMF, Fiscal Monitor October 2020.
- Fiscal Balance and Government Debt (Percent of GDP, weighted average). Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook October 2020.
- Estimated Change in Inequality due to COVID-19 (Gini coefficient, percent, simple average). Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook October 2020. Note: The number of the countries in the sample is shown in the parenthesis. The sample size for Year 2008 is smaller due to data availability.
- Average changes in employment, by skill level, second quarter of 2020 (year-on-year) (Percentage). Source: ILO (2021). Note: The sample consists of 50 high-and middle-income countries and territories with employment data for the second quarter of 2020 disaggregated by occupation. The skill levels are based on ISCO-08; see ILOSTAT for further details.
- SDG Performance in Selected Countries, 2020. Source: Sachs et. al. (2020).

### Financing needs to meet the SDGs
- Additional Annual Financing Needs to Meet SDGs (Percent of GDP). Source: IMF Staff estimates.
- Post-COVID Financing Needs (Percent of GDP per year). Source: IMF Staff estimates.
- Post-COVID Financing Needs under Ambitious Reforms (Percent of GDP per year). Source: IMF Staff estimates. Note: Financing needs are the average of four case study countries.
- Financing Needs under Ambitious Reform (Percent of GDP per year). Source: IMF Staff calculations.
- Cross-country examples cited: Rwanda, Nigeria. Source: IMF Staff calculations.

### Policies to improve development outcomes ("Improving the Odds")
- Policy areas highlighted:
  - Public resources
  - Private resources
  - Human capital (health, education)
  - Infrastructure (water, roads, power)
  - Government revenue
  - GDP
  - Pro-growth structural reforms
  - Domestic revenue mobilization
  - Policies to spur private investment
  - Donor support
- Projected effects and examples:
  - Additional Spending and GDP per Capita in 2030. Source: Gaspar et. al. (2019).
  - Distribution of Tax to GDP Ratios, 2019. Sources: IMF World Revenue Longitudinal Database and IMF, World Economic Outlook. Note: 37 AEs, 94 EMs and 59 LIDCs.
  - Losses from Poor Infrastructure Governance (Percentage deviation from full efficiency). Source: Schwartz et. al., 2020.
  - Rwanda: Private Participation in Infrastructure (Percent of GDP). Source: World Bank PPI Database. Note: World Bank-sponsored projects with private participation, excluding cancelled projects.
  - Foreign Direct Investment in LIDCs (2015-19 5-year average, percent of GDP). Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook. Note: Countries with negative 5-year FDI inflows, small island states, and oil producers not shown.
  - Pakistan: GDP Per Capita (In constant 2019 USD). Source: IMF Staff calculations.
  - Cambodia: Human Capital (Index, 2019=100). Source: IMF Staff calculations.
  - Cambodia and Rwanda: Effects of Increased ODA (Year in which SDGs can be met). Source: IMF Staff calculations.
  - Evolution of Official Development Assistance to LIDCs, 1990-2018. Source: OECD; World Bank. Note: Official development assistance covers net loans expressed on a cash basis prior to 2018 and on accrual basis thereafter.

### Key messages and conclusions
- "Achieving the SDGs by 2030 will be a daunting challenge." (Presentation conclusion)
  - "The pandemic added to the challenge."
  - "Long-term economic scarring could further worsen the picture."
- Role of domestic reforms:
  - "Ambitious domestic reforms are crucial."
  - "They can cover up to half of the SDG needs."
  - "Authorities should (re)start such reforms as soon as possible."
- Role of international support:
  - "Even as countries undertake comprehensive reforms, the SDGs will be significantly delayed without a contribution from the international community."
  - "Additional donor support is hence critical for the SDG agenda."
  - "Contributing to development is in the interest of all."

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/news/seminars/2021/sdg-event/benedek-gemayel-ati-presentation-sdn-093021.pdf_