## Navigating the Pandemic: A Multi-Speed Recovery

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---

JUNE 26, 2020 — Chikahisa SUMI, Director of the IMF Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific — November 4, 2020

### Where We Stand — Patches of Green Shoots
- Pandemic status:
  - Cumulative confirmed cases vary widely across Emerging Asia and Advanced Asia; data referenced to "Days since 100th confirmed cases" with data as of September 30, 2020. China’s data as of August 15, 2020, and cases remain stable thereafter.
- Containment measures:
  - Containment stringency indices (0-1, 1 = strictest) reported as Peak Level and Current Level. Data as of 09/08/2020; some countries eased further since 09/08/2020 (e.g. Australia, New Zealand).
- Economic activity:
  - Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Manager Index (index, 50+ = expansion) shown for China, Asia, Asia ex China across Q1, Q2, July, August. Data as of September 30, 2020.
- Inflation:
  - Inflation is subdued across the region apart from India. Inflation measures presented as year-over-year percent change for Headline, Food, Core. Data available as of September 30, 2020; Australia and New Zealand show data as of June; others as of August 2020.
- Commodity prices:
  - Commodity price index baseline: Jan 2, 2020 = 100, tracked for Metal, Oil, Natural Gas, Rice from Jan through Sep.

### Our Forecast — An Uncertain, Multi-speed Recovery
- World Economic Outlook (October 2020 vintage) headline projections (percent change from a year earlier):
  - 2020: World -4.4; Advanced Economies -5.8; U.S. -4.3; Euro Area -8.3; Japan -5.3; U.K. -9.8; Canada -7.1; China 1.9; EM and Developing -3.3.
  - Revision from June 2020 (2020): World 0.8; Advanced Economies 2.3; U.S. 3.7; Euro Area 1.9; Japan 0.5; U.K. 0.4; Canada 1.3; China 0.9; EM and Developing -0.2.
  - 2021: World 5.2; Advanced Economies 3.9; U.S. 3.1; Euro Area 5.2; Japan 2.3; U.K. 5.9; Canada 5.2; China 8.2; EM and Developing 6.0.
  - Revision from June 2020 (2021): World -0.2; Advanced Economies -0.9; U.S. -1.4; Euro Area -0.8; Japan -0.1; U.K. -0.4; Canada 0.3; China 0.2; EM and Developing 0.2.
- Regional projections:
  - Advanced Asia: 2020 -2.2; 2021 6.9. China and India projections provided with India on a fiscal year basis.
  - Emerging Markets Asia: selected 2020 / 2021 values:
    - Indonesia 2020 0.2; 2021 6.1.
    - Malaysia 2020 -6.0; 2021 4.8.
    - Philippines 2020 -8.3; 2021 7.8.
    - Vietnam 2020 1.6; 2021 5.3.
    - Bangladesh 2020 3.8; 2021 6.1.
- Potential output:
  - Asia Potential Output Forecast (2019 = 100) shows downward revision comparing January 2020 versus October 2020 for regional aggregate (Australia, China, Hong Kong SAR, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan Province of China, and Thailand).
- Macro policy support:
  - Fiscal measures reported as weighted average percent of GDP (Asia AE, Asia EM, Total Asia) with above-the-line and below-the-line components. Data as of September 30, 2020.
  - Policy rate cuts in Asian EMs reported in basis points for Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, India, Indonesia, Thailand, China. Data as of September 30, 2020.
  - All rate cuts announced in 2020; several Asian central banks adopted unconventional monetary policy measures.

### Risks — Trade and Balance Sheets
- Trade risks:
  - Growth spillovers: effect of a 1 percentage point GDP growth increase in China, United States, and Euro Area on GDP growth in REO14 countries (excluding China) shown with betas and 1 standard deviation confidence bands.
  - Trade exposure: share of trade exposure (imports plus exports) to China, United States, and Euro Area as percent of total trade for REO14 countries; data as of September 30, 2020.
  - Projected annual trade growth, 2020 and 2021 (percent) presented for country group including Philippines, Thailand, India, Indonesia, Hong Kong SAR, Australia, Japan, Malaysia, Korea, Singapore, New Zealand, Taiwan Province of China, Vietnam, China, World; calculated as average of import and export volume percent change. Data as of September 30, 2020.
  - China-US tensions simulated under a "China-US: Technological Dislocation Scenario": simulated percent deviation from baseline in 10 years for China, Rest of Asia, and US.
  - Tourism and remittances vulnerability:
    - Tourist arrivals y/y percent change (May 2020): Europe -57.9 percent; Asia and the Pacific -60.0 percent.
    - Tourism receipts in Asia Pacific as percent of nominal GDP (GDP weighted average, 2018) with maxima for Maldives and Thailand and Hong Kong SAR.
    - Remittances to Asia Pacific as percent of GDP in 2019 with maxima (Tonga, Nepal, Korea).
- Balance sheet risks:
  - Private leverage: Household Debt and Corporate Debt charts for Q1 2020 show percent of GDP across Asia EMs, Asia AEs, Global EMs, Global AEs, Worldwide. Data as of September 30, 2020.
  - Corporates with Interest Coverage Ratio < 2 (percent) for most recent quarter in 2020: Japan, Korea, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam.
  - Profitability (EBIT/Total Asset, weighted average) shows drops relative to the Global Financial Crisis for several countries in 2019 and 2020Q1/Q2.
  - Financial sector vulnerabilities:
    - Financial Sector Risk Index (0 to 100) reported for Advanced Asia, Emerging Asia, LIC Frontier Asia with 2019Q3 and 2020Q3 comparisons.
    - Financial Soundness Indicators: Non-performing loans and Return on Assets for 2019 and 2020Q1.
  - Market and flow risks:
    - Stock market performance index (Jan-01-2020 = 100) for AE and EMDE tracked.
    - Uncertainty indices: World uncertainty index; World pandemic uncertainty index (RHS); World trade uncertainty index (RHS).
    - Asia EM cumulative portfolio flows (billions of USD) tracked; IIF and IMF staff calculations.
  - Public debt sustainability:
    - Public debt percent of GDP series (2009–2025 projections) showing 10th/90th percentile and median.
    - Downgrades in sovereign ratings or outlook (number of countries) for Asia EMs and Asia AEs include 2020 downgrades. Data as of September 30, 2020.

### Policy Recommendations
- Health and containment:
  - Strong containment: social distancing; enforceable self-quarantines.
  - Increase capacity for accurate testing and timely and effective contact tracing.
  - Strengthen healthcare systems: hospital capacity, medical equipment and service providers.
  - Develop vaccine distribution strategy.
  - Evidence references: testing and tracing policies at time of exit affect confirmed cases 30 days after relaxation of containment measures (Deb, Furceri, Ostry and Tawk (2020a)). Charts show Average, Strong, Weak testing/tracing scenarios with confirmed cases deviation from baseline (log percentage points).
- Fiscal and monetary support:
  - Timely, targeted fiscal support can be helpful. Impact of containment policy on industrial production (implied by changes in NO2 emissions) after 30 days varies with fiscal stimulus and policy rate cuts (Deb, Furceri, Ostry and Tawk (2020b)). Implied impacts shown for Low fiscal stimulus vs High fiscal stimulus; Small policy rate cut vs Large policy rate cut.
  - Impact of fiscal shocks on industrial production reported as betas (percent) under Baseline, Low Mobility, Low Containment (controlling for mobility).
  - Fiscal composition priorities:
    - Direct budget support focused on health care, better-targeted social protection, assistance for viable SMEs.
    - Prioritize green investment and technological infrastructure.
    - High-debt countries should commit to credible medium-term fiscal strategy.
    - Concessional donor funds for low income countries (especially Pacific Islands Countries).
  - Asia-specific targeted measures (percent of countries implementing policies) include enhanced unemployment benefits, loans/grants/guarantees, wage subsidies, tax relief, cash transfer. Data as of September 30, 2020.
- Monetary policy recommendations:
  - Further easing and unconventional monetary policy as feasible; improve transmission.
  - Debt monetization may be considered but should be time-bound within a clear operational framework to preserve central bank independence.
  - Greater attention to elevated financial risks; tighten macroprudential policies only if warranted.
  - Exchange rate should continue to act as a shock absorber.
  - Well-designed capital flow measures appropriate in some circumstances.
  - Central Bank Policy Actions (selected Asia) enumerated: FX funding facility; FX intervention; Term Repo; Government bond purchase program; Reserve requirement ratio change; Policy rate change (number of central banks implementing each).

### Structural Policies to Reduce Scarring and Support Reallocation
- Facilitate resource reallocation to reduce scarring and promote green and inclusive growth.
- Strengthen insolvency regimes and available tools for the Asia Pacific.
- Employment changes by industry classification:
  - Comparisons of GFC peak-to-trough vs COVID-19 (Q4 2019 vs Q2 2020) show differential impacts across Essential Industries, Teleworkable Industries, Non-Teleworkable Industries, Social Industries.

### Main Conclusions
- The recovery is multi-speed and the pandemic is far from over; downside risks are large.
- Policy support needed until recovery is entrenched:
  - Strong healthcare and containment measures.
  - Targeted, sustainable public spending.
  - Supportive monetary policy.
- Monitor elevated credit risks and tighten macroprudential policies in line with recovery.
- Reduce scarring by facilitating resource reallocation and promote green and inclusive growth.

### Country-Specific Developments (Selected Highlights)
- China: Handoff from stimulus- to private-demand-driven recovery; Growth Forecast (2019Q4=100) series for Private Consumption, Public Investment, GDP across 2019Q2–2021Q4. COVID-19 timeline markers: 20/01/2020, 20/03/2020, 20/05/2020, 20/07/2020, 20/09/2020; events include tightened border controls and outbreaks in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Beijing, Xinjiang & Liaoning.
- India: Policies cushion slowdown but more support needed; COVID-19 daily cases and containment stringency series with dates 15-Jan, 10-Feb, 7-Mar, 2-Apr, 28-Apr, 24-May, 19-Jun, 15-Jul, 10-Aug, 5-Sep (vertical scales include Thousands and Stringency Index (RHS)).
- Japan: Aggressive policy response supports outlook; contributions to 2020 growth revision (October WEO - Jan WEO) decomposed into GDP, Private Consumption, Private GFCF, Exports, Imports (vertical axis -7.00 to 1.00). Daily new COVID-19 cases include a "State of Emergency" marker.
- Korea: Containment & policy support mitigate impact; Real GDP growth forecasts (2020) shown for Korea -1.9 and Advanced Economies -5.8 with interquartile range. COVID-19 cases and testing (7-day averages) plotted with dates 21-Feb to 21-Sep. Central government finances (percent of GDP) show Revenue and Expenditure for 2019, 2020 (fcst), 2021 (fcst) with "Supplementary budgets" annotation.
- ASEAN: Growth hit by stringent lockdown & external demand; Containment heatmap constructed from Oxford’s COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. Tourist arrivals (2018Q1–2020Q2): country series include Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Cambodia with vertical axis -120 to 40. Exports in Goods Growth (Jun–Jul 2020) show country-specific y/y percent changes.
- CLMV: Sharp decline in growth puts livelihoods at risk; Real GDP Growth and Poverty Rate Comparison, 2020 for Lao P.D.R., Bangladesh, Cambodia, Nepal. Poverty Rate data vintages: KHM-2014, LAO-2012, NPL-2019, BGD-2016. Bangladesh data refer to a fiscal year starting July 1 and ending June 30.
- Pacific Islands: Debt sustainability is a key concern:
  - Public debt/GDP tracked for FY2009, FY2012, FY2015, FY2018, FY2021, FY2024 with subgroup distinctions "Public debt/GDP (falling)" and "Public debt/GDP (rising)". Note 1/: Debt falling: RMI, FJI, FSM, SLB.
  - Debt composition by creditors (As of FY2019, In percent): Multilateral 60.3; Bilateral: Paris Club 12.4; Bilateral: Non Paris Club 27.3. Nauru, Tuvalu excluded; Marshall Islands and Micronesia (FY2018).

### IMF Support and Capacity Development under COVID-19
- Delivery modes and activities:
  - Remote TA; Online training; Peer-to-peer JIMS seminar for Asia policy makers; Virtual training for JISPA scholars; Weekly VTCs with STI; Reopening for staff; Remote TA improving connectivity; In-person training using University of the South Pacific network; Reopening regional training centers/travel.
- Capacity development centers and offices referenced: PFTAC, CDOT, SARTTAC, OAP.
- Acronyms explained in context: CDOT= Capacity Development Office Thailand; OAP= Regional Office for Asia and Pacific; PFTAC= Pacific Technical Assistance Center; SARTTAC= South Asia Regional Training and Technical Assistance Center; STI= Singapore Training Institute; JIMS= Japan-IMF Macroeconomic Seminar for Asia; JISPA= Japan-IMF Scholarship Program for Asia.

### Inequality, Labor Markets, and Social Unrest
- Labor market scarring:
  - Asia: Change in Unemployment Rate by Age Cohort, Latest versus Pre-COVID (median; in percentage points) displays values from -1.4 to 0.4 with Male and Female series.
  - Change in Labor Force Participation Rate by Gender during Crises (in percentage points) compares COVID-19 (Q4 2019 vs Q2 2020, or latest available) to GFC (Peak to trough).
  - Labor Force Participation Rate series available as of September 30, 2020; regional definition: Asia refers to REO14 where available.
- Informality and redistribution:
  - Redistribution: Regional Comparison (in Gini points, 2016 or latest) computed as difference between market GINI and net GINI (SWIID v8.2).
  - Share of Informal Employment: Regional Comparison (percent of non-agricultural employment) contrasts Asia AE, Asia EM, Emerging Markets, Advanced Economies, OECD Global, Emerging Europe, Latin America, Middle East & North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa with a 0–80 percent scale.
- Social unrest risk:
  - Average response of net Gini to a pandemic for 175 countries, 1961-2017 presented with impulse response functions and 90 percent confidence bands (Furceri, Loungani, Ostry and Pizzuto (2020)).
  - Marginal effect of net Gini on Civil Disorder plotted with a 90 percent confidence interval; Civil Disorder score ranges from 0-4 (ICRG sign inverted).

### Capacity Development: Program Support Priorities (Selected Countries)
- PNG: PFM, revenue administration, bank supervision and regulation, and GFS.
- MDV: Fiscal transparency, revenue administration, banking/insurance supervision, and national accounts.
- WSM: Tax revenue business continuity and insurance reform.
- MMR: Revenue administration, expenditure reporting, financial reforms, and external debt statistics.
- MNG: Tax and customs administration.

*IMF Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020 — Section 2*

### Section 1

### Navigating the Pandemic: A Multi-Speed Recovery
JUNE 26, 2020
Chikahisa SUMI
Director of the IMF Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
November 4, 2020

### Where We Stand — Patches of Green Shoots
- Pandemic status across Emerging Asia and Advanced Asia shows wide variation in cumulative confirmed cases (log scale charts); data referenced to "Days since 100th confirmed cases" with data as of September 30, 2020. China’s data as of August 15, 2020, and cases remain stable thereafter.
- Containment measures have been eased at different speeds; containment stringency indices (0-1, 1 = strictest) reported as Peak Level and Current Level. Data as of 09/08/2020; note that some countries eased further since 09/08/2020 (e.g. Australia, New Zealand).
- Economic activity is picking up: Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Manager Index (index, 50+ = expansion) shown for China, Asia, Asia ex China across Q1, Q2, July, August. Data as of September 30, 2020.
- Inflation is subdued across the region apart from India. Inflation measures presented as year-over-year percent change for Headline, Food, Core. Data available as of September 30, 2020; Australia and New Zealand show data as of June; others as of August 2020.
- Commodity prices (Jan 2, 2020 = 100) tracked for Metal, Oil, Natural Gas, Rice from Jan through Sep.

### Our Forecast — An Uncertain, Multi-speed Recovery
- World Economic Outlook (October 2020 vintage) headline projections (percent change from a year earlier):
  - 2020: World -4.4; Advanced Economies -5.8; U.S. -4.3; Euro Area -8.3; Japan -5.3; U.K. -9.8; Canada -7.1; China 1.9; EM and Developing -3.3.
  - Revision from June 2020: World 0.8; Advanced Economies 2.3; U.S. 3.7; Euro Area 1.9; Japan 0.5; U.K. 0.4; Canada 1.3; China 0.9; EM and Developing -0.2.
  - 2021: World 5.2; Advanced Economies 3.9; U.S. 3.1; Euro Area 5.2; Japan 2.3; U.K. 5.9; Canada 5.2; China 8.2; EM and Developing 6.0.
  - Revision from June 2020 for 2021: World -0.2; Advanced Economies -0.9; U.S. -1.4; Euro Area -0.8; Japan -0.1; U.K. -0.4; Canada 0.3; China 0.2; EM and Developing 0.2.
- Regional projections:
  - Advanced Asia: 2020 -2.2; 2021 6.9. China and India projections provided with India on a fiscal year basis.
  - Emerging Markets Asia: 2020 varies across countries (examples: Indonesia 0.2; Malaysia -6.0; Philippines -8.3; Vietnam 1.6; Bangladesh 3.8). 2021 projections generally show recovery (examples: Indonesia 6.1; Malaysia 4.8; Philippines 7.8; Vietnam 5.3; Bangladesh 6.1).
- Potential output has a persistent drop: Asia Potential Output Forecast (2019 = 100) plotted for January 2020 versus October 2020, indicating a downward revision; regional aggregate includes Australia, China, Hong Kong SAR, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan Province of China, and Thailand.
- Macro policy support unprecedented:
  - Fiscal measures reported as weighted average percent of GDP (Asia AE, Asia EM, Total Asia) with above-the-line and below-the-line components. Data as of September 30, 2020.
  - Policy rate cuts in Asian EMs reported in basis points for countries including Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, India, Indonesia, Thailand, China. Data as of September 30, 2020.
  - All rate cuts announced in 2020; several Asian central banks adopted unconventional monetary policy measures.

### Risks — Trade and Balance Sheets
- Trade risks:
  - Growth spillovers: effect of 1 percentage point GDP growth increase in China, United States, and Euro Area on GDP growth in REO14 countries (excluding China) shown (beta with 1 standard deviation confidence bands).
  - Trade exposure: share of trade exposure (imports plus exports) to China, United States, and Euro Area as percent of total trade for REO14 countries; data as of September 30, 2020.
  - Projected annual trade growth, 2020 and 2021 (percent): country bars include Philippines, Thailand, India, Indonesia, Hong Kong SAR, Australia, Japan, Malaysia, Korea, Singapore, New Zealand, Taiwan Province of China, Vietnam, China, World. Calculated as average of import and export volume percent change. Data available as of September 30, 2020.
  - China-US tensions pose downside risks to GDP via trade disruption, direct productivity effects, and technological diffusion effects; simulated impact on GDP shows percent deviation from baseline in 10 years for China, Rest of Asia, and US under a "China-US: Technological Dislocation Scenario".
  - High reliance on tourism and remittances increases vulnerability: Tourists arrivals by region displayed as percent change year-over-year (Europe -57.9 percent, Asia and the Pacific -60.0 percent, others) with data as of May 2020. Tourism receipts in Asia Pacific reported as percent of nominal GDP (range; GDP weighted average, 2018) with World Average and maxima (Maldives, Thailand, Hong Kong SAR). Remittances to Asia Pacific reported as percent of GDP in 2019 (range; GDP weighted average) with maxima (Tonga, Nepal, Korea).
- Balance sheet risks:
  - Private balance sheets are highly leveraged: Household Debt and Corporate Debt charts for Q1 2020 show percent of GDP across Asia EMs, Asia AEs, Global EMs, Global AEs, Worldwide. Data available as of September 30, 2020.
  - Share of corporates with Interest Coverage Ratio < 2 (percent) for most recent quarter in 2020: Japan, Korea, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam.
  - Profitability (EBIT/Total Asset, weighted average) shows drops relative to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) for several countries in 2019 and 2020Q1/Q2.
  - Financial sector vulnerabilities rising: Financial Sector Risk Index (model-based assessment, 0 to 100) reported for Advanced Asia, Emerging Asia, LIC Frontier Asia with 2019Q3 and 2020Q3 comparisons; Financial Soundness Indicators (Non-performing loans, Return on Assets) presented for 2019 and 2020Q1.
  - A return to risk aversion could hurt financial stability: stock market performance index (Jan-01-2020 = 100) for AE and EMDE, uncertainty indices (World uncertainty index, World pandemic uncertainty index (RHS), World trade uncertainty index (RHS)). Asia EM cumulative portfolio flows (billions of USD) tracked, with IIF and IMF staff calculations.
  - Public debt sustainability deteriorating: public debt percent of GDP series (2009–2025 projections) showing 10th/90th percentile and median; downgrades in sovereign ratings or outlook (number of countries) for Asia EMs and Asia AEs include 2020 downgrades. Data as of September 30, 2020.

### Policy Recommendations
- Health and containment:
  - Strong containment (social distancing, enforceable self-quarantines).
  - Increased capacity for accurate testing and timely and effective contact tracing.
  - Better healthcare systems: hospital capacity, medical equipment and service providers.
  - Vaccine distribution strategy.
  - Evidence: testing and tracing policies at time of exit affect confirmed cases 30 days after relaxation of containment measures (Deb, Furceri, Ostry and Tawk (2020a)); charts show Average, Strong, Weak testing/tracing scenarios with confirmed cases deviation from baseline (log percentage points).
- Fiscal and monetary support:
  - Timely targeted fiscal support can be helpful. Impact of containment policy on industrial production (implied by changes in NO2 emissions) after 30 days varies with fiscal stimulus and policy rate cuts (Deb, Furceri, Ostry and Tawk (2020b)). Bars show implied impact on industrial production: Low fiscal stimulus vs High fiscal stimulus; Small policy rate cut vs Large policy rate cut.
  - Impact of fiscal shocks on industrial production reported as betas (percent) under Baseline, Low Mobility, Low Containment (controlling for mobility).
  - Composition of fiscal expenditures is critical:
    - More direct budget support focused on health care, better-targeted social protection, assistance for viable SMEs.
    - Prioritize green investment and technological infrastructure.
    - High debt countries should commit to credible medium-term fiscal strategy.
    - Concessional donor funds for low income countries (especially Pacific Islands Countries).
  - Asia: Targeted help to households and workers (percent of countries implementing policies) shows implementation of enhanced unemployment benefits, loans/grants/guarantees, wage subsidies, tax relief, cash transfer. Data as of September 30, 2020.
- Monetary policy recommendations:
  - Further easing and unconventional monetary policy as feasible, improve transmission.
  - Debt monetization may be considered (but time-bound within clear operational framework to preserve central bank independence).
  - Greater attention to elevated financial risks; tighten macroprudential policies only if warranted.
  - Exchange rate should continue to act as a shock absorber.
  - Well-designed capital flow measures appropriate in some circumstances.
  - Central Bank Policy Actions (selected Asia) enumerated: FX funding facility, FX intervention, Term Repo, Government bond purchase program, Reserve requirement ratio change, Policy rate change (number of central banks implementing each).
- Structural policies to reduce scarring and support resource reallocation:
  - Facilitate resource reallocation to reduce scarring and promote green and inclusive growth.
  - Insolvency regimes and available tools for the Asia Pacific discussed; employment changes by industry classification during crises (GFC peak to trough vs COVID-19 Q4 2019 vs Q2 2020) show differential impacts on Essential Industries, Teleworkable Industries, Non-Teleworkable Industries, Social Industries.

### Main Conclusions
- The recovery is multi-speed and the pandemic is far from over; downside risks are large.
- Policy support is needed until recovery is entrenched:
  - Strong healthcare and containment measures.
  - Targeted, sustainable public spending.
  - Supportive monetary policy.
- Important to monitor elevated credit risks and tighten macroprudential policies in line with recovery.
- Imperative to reduce scarring by facilitating resource reallocation and promote green and inclusive growth.

*International Monetary Fund*

### Section 2

### Country-Specific Developments (Section 2)

### China: Handoff from stimulus- to private-demand-driven recovery
- Growth forecast baseline references: Growth Forecast (2019Q4=100) with series shown for Private Consumption, Public Investment, GDP and visible quarters 2019Q2, 2019Q4, 2020Q2, 2020Q4, 2021Q2, 2021Q4.
- COVID-19 epidemiology and border controls:
  - Timeline markers include dates: 20/01/2020, 20/03/2020, 20/05/2020, 20/07/2020, 20/09/2020.
  - Events: China tightens border controls; Surge of imported cases in Heilongjiang; New cases in Jilin; Outbreak in Beijing; Outbreak in Xinjiang & Liaoning.
- Case reporting classifications and scales shown for Imported (LHS,before Mar 12), Local (LHS,before Mar 12), Local (RHS,after Mar 12), Imported (RHS,after Mar 12).

_Source: China National Health Commission; China National Bureau of Statistics and IMF staff estimates._

### India: Policies cushion the slowdown, but more support needed
- COVID-19 daily cases and containment stringency: time series dates include 15-Jan, 10-Feb, 7-Mar, 2-Apr, 28-Apr, 24-May, 19-Jun, 15-Jul, 10-Aug, 5-Sep.
- Vertical scale annotations include Thousands for daily confirmed cases and a Stringency Index (RHS) plotted concurrently.

_Sources: CEIC, and IMF staff calculation._

### Japan: Aggressive policy response supports economic outlook
- Contributions to 2020 growth revision (October WEO - Jan WEO) decomposed into GDP, Private Consumption, Private GFCF, Exports, Imports with vertical axis spanning -7.00 to 1.00.
- Daily new COVID-19 cases time series sourced to Our World in Data COVID-19 Dataset; and IMF staff.
- A "State of Emergency" marker is noted on the COVID-19 time series.

_Sources: WEO October 2020; and IMF staff estimates._

### Korea: Containment & policy support mitigate COVID impact
- Real GDP growth forecasts (2020) shown for Korea and Advanced Economies with annotated values -1.9 and -5.8 and an "Interquartile Range" band.
- COVID-19 cases and testing (7-day averages) plotted with dates: 21-Feb, 21-Mar, 21-Apr, 21-May, 21-Jun, 21-Jul, 21-Aug, 21-Sep; left scale labeled "7-day avg new cases", right scale labeled "7-day avg tests".
- Central government finances (percent of GDP) show Revenue and Expenditure series for years 2019, 2020 (fcst), 2021 (fcst) with an annotation "Supplementary budgets" related to expenditure.

_Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff calculations._

### ASEAN: Growth hit by stringent lockdown & external demand
- Stringency of Containment Measures Heatmap (Index) constructed from Oxford’s COVID-19 Government Response Tracker and IMF staff calculations; green reflects no or little containment measures, red reflects most stringent containment measures.
- Tourist Arrivals, Selected ASEAN Countries (Annual percentage change) series from 2018Q1 through 2020Q2 showing country lines for Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Cambodia with vertical axis from -120 to 40.
- Exports in Goods Growth, Selected ASEAN Countries (Year-on-year change, in percent) for Jun-Jul 2020 with country series Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam and vertical axis from -35 to 20.

_Sources: Oxford’s COVID-19 Government Response Tracker; Haver Analytics; IMF staff calculations._

### CLMV: Sharp decline in growth puts livelihoods at risk
- Real GDP Growth and Poverty Rate Comparison, 2020:
  - Countries plotted: Lao P.D.R., Bangladesh, Cambodia, Nepal.
  - Indicators include "Revision since Jan WEO", "Average growth (2010-20)" and "Poverty Rate (RHS)".
  - Poverty Rate data vintage: KHM-2014, LAO-2012, NPL-2019, BGD-2016. Bangladesh’s data refer to a fiscal year starting July 1 and ending June 30.

_Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook database, World Bank WDI and National Authorities._

### Pacific Islands: Debt sustainability is a key concern
- Public debt to GDP ratio: by subgroup (In percent) annotated across fiscal years FY2009, FY2012, FY2015, FY2018, FY2021, FY2024 with subgroup distinction "Public debt/GDP (falling)" and "Public debt/GDP (rising)". Note 1/: Debt falling: RMI, FJI, FSM, SLB.
- Debt composition by creditors (As of FY2019, In percent) shows components:
  - Multilateral 60.3
  - Bilateral: Paris Club 12.4
  - Bilateral: Non Paris Club 27.3
- Nauru, Tuvalu excluded; Marshall Islands and Micronesia (FY2018).

_Sources: Country Teams._

### IMF Support and Capacity Development under COVID-19
- Delivery modes and activities:
  - Remote TA
  - Online training
  - Peer-to-peer JIMS seminar for Asia policy makers
  - Virtual training for JISPA scholars
  - Weekly VTCs with STI
  - Reopening for staff
  - Remote TA, improving connectivity
  - In-person training using University of the South Pacific network
  - Reopening regional training centers/travel
- Capacity development centers and offices referenced: PFTAC, CDOT, SARTTAC, OAP.
- Note acronyms: CDOT= Capacity Development Office Thailand; OAP= Regional Office for Asia and Pacific; PFTAC= Pacific Technical Assistance Center; SARTTAC= South Asia Regional Training and Technical Assistance Center; STI= Singapore Training Institute; JIMS= Japan-IMF Macroeconomic Seminar for Asia; JISPA= Japan-IMF Scholarship Program for Asia.

### Inequality, Labor Markets, and Social Unrest
- Labor market scarring:
  - Asia: Change in Unemployment Rate by Age Cohort, Latest versus Pre-COVID (median; in percentage points) displays values from -1.4 to 0.4 with Male and Female series.
  - Asia: Change in Labor Force Participation Rate by Gender during Crises (in percentage points) compares COVID-19 (Q4 2019 vs Q2 2020, or latest available) to GFC (Peak to trough).
  - Labor Force Participation Rate (in percent) series available as of September 30, 2020; regional definition notes: Asia refers to REO14 where available.
- Informality and redistribution:
  - Redistribution: Regional Comparison (in Gini points, 2016 or latest) computed as difference between market GINI and net GINI (SWIID v8.2).
  - Share of Informal Employment: Regional Comparison (percent of non-agricultural employment) contrasts Asia AE, Asia EM, Emerging Markets, Advanced Economies, OECD Global, Emerging Europe, Latin America, Middle East & North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa with a 0–80 percent scale.
- Social unrest risk:
  - Average response net Gini to a pandemic for 175 countries, 1961-2017 is presented with impulse response functions and 90 percent confidence bands (Furceri, Loungani, Ostry and Pizzuto (2020)).
  - Marginal effect of net Gini on Civil Disorder plotted with a 90 percent confidence interval; Civil Disorder score ranges from 0-4 (ICRG sign inverted) and marginal effects are shown by Net Gini coefficient.

_Sources: Haver Analytics; SWIID v8.2; ICRG; Furceri, Loungani, Ostry and Pizzuto (2020); IMF staff calculations._

### Capacity development: program support priorities (selected countries)
- PNG: PFM, revenue administration, bank supervision and regulation, and GFS
- MDV: Fiscal transparency, revenue administration, banking/insurance supervision, and national accounts
- WSM: Tax revenue business continuity and insurance reform
- MMR: Revenue administration, expenditure reporting, financial reforms, and external debt statistics
- MNG: Tax and customs administration

_Source: Country Teams._

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/oap/oap-home/2020/2020-oct-reo-chikahisa-sumi.pdf_