## IMF Asia-Pacific Regional Seminar on 2023 External Sector Report

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [IMF Asia-Pacific Regional Seminar on 2023 External Sector Report](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/oap/oap-home/2023/seminar-on-2023-esr-0913.pdf)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/oap/oap-home/2023/seminar-on-2023-esr-0913.pdf.md)
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### Event details and logistics
- Date and Time: September 13, 2023 (Wednesday) 10:30 a.m.-11:30 a.m. Japan time
- Venue: Hibikoku Conference Square, Room 8C, 8th floor, Hibiya-Kokusai Building, 2-2-3, Uchisaiwaicho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo
- Contact: Tel +81-3-5157-5039
- Speaker: Jiaqian Chen, Deputy Division Chief, Research Department, IMF
- Presentation format:
  - 40-minute presentation followed by a Q&A session
  - Language: English (No Japanese translation provided)
  - In-person only; registration required to attend by September 12 at 2 pm. (Japan time)
  - No online participation available

### Overview of the IMF External Sector Report (ESR) 2023 — scope and methodology
- Produced since 2012, the IMF’s annual External Sector Report analyzes global external developments and provides multilaterally consistent assessments of external positions of the world’s largest economies representing more than 90 percent of global GDP.
- Coverage includes current accounts, real exchange rates, external balance sheets, capital flows, and international reserves.

### Key findings from the 2023 External Sector Report (as presented)
- Global current account balances widened for a third consecutive year in 2022, driven by:
  - Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
  - The uneven recovery from the pandemic
  - Rapid tightening of US monetary policy
- Despite the widening of global current account balances, the IMF’s external sector assessments suggest that the overall size of excess global current account balances has remained unchanged since 2021, after declining for several years prior to that.
- Risks associated with excess global current account balances:
  - Can fuel trade tensions and protectionist measures
  - Can increase the risk of disruptive currency and capital flow movements
- The US dollar appreciation under the “global dollar cycle,” driven primarily by global financial risks, has negative spillovers on economic activity and imports, which fall harder on emerging market economies.
- Policy-relevant mitigants identified:
  - More flexible exchange rates
  - Better anchored inflation expectations
- Capital flow and financial center dynamics:
  - The uphill capital flows from emerging and developing economies to advanced economies reemerged in 2022
  - Financial centers are becoming increasingly important in the recycling of large current account surpluses and the funding of the US current account deficit

### Policy implications emphasized for external rebalancing
- Importance of efforts in both excess surplus and deficit economies to promote external rebalancing to reduce risks from large imbalances.
- Use of exchange rate flexibility and macroeconomic frameworks (including inflation anchoring) to mitigate negative spillovers from global dollar appreciation and financial stress.

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/oap/oap-home/2023/seminar-on-2023-esr-0913.pdf_