## cr17187

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### Executive Summary — mission context and scope
- A technical assistance (TA) mission by the Real Sector Statistics Advisor (RSA) at CARTAC to Paramaribo during February 7–17, 2017, at the request of the General Bureau of Statistics (GBS) of Suriname and in consultation with IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department (WHD).
- Objective: review and provide advice on improving the national accounts of Suriname, including consistency with the System of National Accounts 2008.

### Current status of national accounts — GBS outputs and gaps
- GBS currently produces:
  - annual estimates of GDP by economic activity (GDP-P) at current and constant 2007 prices;
  - annual current price estimates for GDP by expenditure (GDP-E) broadly consistent with the System of National Accounts 1993;
  - annual estimates of Gross National Income and Gross National Disposable Income;
  - Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI);
  - Quarterly labor force statistics;
  - Annual population estimates/projections by age and gender.
- GBS does not compile quarterly GDP.
- Central Bank of Suriname (CBS) currently compiles International Merchandise Trade Statistics (IMTS).

### Main findings on data sources and operational issues
- Need to expand use of administrative data, especially from the Tax Department, Ministry of Finance (MOF) and the Central Bank of Suriname (CBS).
- Business register needs updating using the 2015 Establishment Census and regulatory data.
- Annual and quarterly business surveys require redevelopment; subannual collection of prices and volume data should be expanded.
- Construction industry, trade and transport margin studies required to compile the 2015 SUT and to rebase GDP.
- High priority: request MOF to provide Government accounts data in Excel format for 2015 onward to reduce staff time wasted on data entry and transcription errors.
- Currently no data provided to the GBS by the Tax Department; formal agreement with the Department is needed to share tax registration data, company income tax returns and sales tax returns.
- Statistics Canada (PRASC) engagement: Director to share mission’s final report and arrange missions with Statistics Canada to assist quality assuring administrative and survey data for SUT and GDP-E development.

### Methodological recommendations — GDP by economic activity (GDP-P)
- Implement the 2008 SNA methodology for calculating and fully allocating Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured (FISIM).
- Implement work-in-progress (WIP) methodology for agriculture and construction.
- Discontinue the use of fixed intermediate consumption (IC) to output ratios for current price estimates.
- Improve deflation/reflation of intermediate consumption (IC) using composite weighted IC price indices based on the 2015 SUT input-output matrix and select at least 5–6 adjusted CPI/PPI-based price indices.
- Implement International Standard Industry Classification Revision 4 (ISIC Rev.4) for national accounts; revise industries and increase services detail (minimum two-digit ISIC Rev.4 for all relevant industries).
- Use volume extrapolation of deflated imports and outputs at a more detailed level to derive taxes less subsidies on products in constant prices.
- Quarterly GDP-P: methodological advice provided; development subject to additional budget and staffing.

### Methodological recommendations — GDP by expenditure (GDP-E)
- Use the benchmark-indicator approach to develop independent estimates of household final consumption expenditure (HFCE).
- Use the commodity flow approach at the detailed product level for gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) and changes in inventories.
- Add to gross capital formation: biological assets, research and development, database and software development, intellectual property, and net acquisition of valuables.
- Deflate expenditure components at the detailed product level.
- Present statistical discrepancy explicitly on the expenditure side (GDP-P considered more robust).

### Supply and Use Tables (SUT) and rebasing
- Advice on data sources and methodology to produce the 2015 SUT and rebase GDP.
- A draft SUT frame developed: 127 industries and 164 product groups.
- Training provided on compiling SUT, product and industry balances; separate Excel SUT templates and IMF Statistics Department SUT balancing software provided.
- Data inputs and main gaps identified for 2015 SUT: external trade data; 2013/14 HBS (price and volume adjust to 2015); 2012 Census for HFCE; 2015 ANAS and LFS; CBS external and financial sector data; MOF Government accounts.
- Informal sector coverage approach: calculate values per informal sector worker by industry multiplied by the number of informal workers using LFS and 2012 Census forward-rated to 2015; 2013/14 HBS provides partial backyard/own-consumption estimates.
- Illegal activities: use Customs and Police seizure data and conservative estimation methods given limited information.

### Capacity, resources, and institutional recommendations
- Staff capacity and budget:
  - Further staff capacity building required.
  - GBS budget needs expansion to improve data collection and compilation.
  - Recruit an additional two prices statisticians and two economic statisticians by January 31, 2019; recruit a prices and an economic statistician in both January 2018 and January 2019 per action plan.
- Institutional arrangements:
  - Implement formal data coordination through memoranda of understanding (MOU) with key data providers.
  - Establish a Technical Committee of key data providers and users to improve data coordination/project implementation.
- Financing and TA:
  - Secure additional budget and development partner financing by 12/31/2018.
  - Secure additional TA from PRASC and other partners by 12/31/2018; CARTAC to provide remote TA and planned missions (CARTAC expected to undertake around 4-5 national accounts and prices statistics missions).

### Action plan — medium-term implementation and timelines (selected milestones)
- Overall objective: Expansion and improvement of the national accounts consistent with the 2008 SNA and meeting e-GDDS requirements by 12/31/2021.
- Key target dates and milestones (selected):
  - Business register updated using Establishment Census data for 2015: 04/30/2017.
  - Revised production estimates for 2015 (gross up enterprise survey using updated register): 05/31/2017.
  - Informal sector and subsistence production estimates from 2012 Census, LFS, and HBS extraction: 06/15/2017.
  - Trade and freight transport margins studies completed: 06/15/2017.
  - Expanded merchandise commodity and trade in services data from CBS collected: 05/31/2017.
  - Improve annual enterprise survey, CPI, PPI (including BPI), XPI and MPI, and other indicators by 06/30/2018.
  - Establish Integrated Business Register (IBR): 06/30/2019.
  - Compile the 2015 SUT template and finalize SUT balancing and BM estimates: initial SUT product and industry list developed 02/17/2017; SUT balanced and finalized BM estimates produced by 07/31/2018.
  - Redevelop national accounts compilation system with 2015 base year and incorporate BM estimates: redevelopment completed by 07/31/2018; rebased annual GDP-P estimates compiled by 08/31/2018.
  - Link rebased GDP 2015 series to the 2007 series by 09/15/2018.
  - Compile quarterly GDP-P at current and constant prices by 08/31/2020 and disseminate quarterly GDP by economic activity at current and constant 2015 prices by 09/30/2020.
  - Dissemination improvements and release of rebased series targeted for 2018–2020 (examples: 08/31/2017 improved annual GDP series at 2007 prices; 09/30/2018 rebased 2015 GDP series).
- Implementation assumptions:
  - Authorities will ensure appropriate staff and other resources, including financing and TA, are available.
  - GBS to request PRASC TA and CARTAC support for specified activities.
  - Cooperation of key data providers (MOF, CBS, Tax Department) and Statistics Canada for PRASC activities.

### Data provision, surveys and business register — operational recommendations
- Request MOF to provide Government accounts data in Excel format for 2015 onward.
- Formal agreement with Tax Department needed to share tax registration data, company income tax returns and sales tax returns.
- Update business register using 2015 Establishment Census; move to Integrated Business Register (IBR) incorporating Tax Department registration.
- Redesign ANAS and QNAS samples:
  - QNAS is currently a census of businesses with ten or more employees (around 1,000 units); ANAS includes these large units.
  - Current QNAS response rate averages around 40 percent; ANAS around 65 percent.
  - Recommended stratification by contribution to industry turnover: large (80 percent), medium (next 10 percent), small (remainder); complete enumeration for largest 470 FPIs and largest 30 NPIs; proposed sample ≈ 2,000 units (assuming ≈ 13,000 active employing units).
  - Follow-up methodology: Impact 4-2-1 with strict response rate targets (e.g., QNAS large units: 100 percent; ANAS large units: 90 percent preliminary within 6 months, 100 percent final).
- Non-response estimation based on growth and movements for similar sized businesses; use CBS monthly survey data as movement indicators.

### Prices, indices and deflation strategy
- Develop and expand price indices: monthly PPI, monthly BPI, XPI and MPI by June 2018; combine previous CPI series (April–June 2009) with new CPI (April–June 2016 = 100) adjusted to 2015=100 at all COICOP levels.
- Redevelop BPI and collect producer prices for mining, manufacturing and utilities; collect prices paid by hardware stores for imported building materials to produce quarterly BPI and PPI by June 2018.
- Use detailed CPI components and composite indices as deflators for specific government expense categories and industry IC components (list of indices recommended preserved in source).
- Interim deflation: use detailed CPI where PPI absent; construct composite IC price indices based on 2015 SUT weights.

### Sector-specific key findings and recommendations (selected)
- Agriculture, forestry and fishing:
  - Accounted for 5.6 percent of GDP in 2015.
  - Recommendations: collect monthly/quarterly quantity and price data; add backyard/own-consumption coverage using 2015 SUT/HBS; implement WIP for seasonal crops and livestock in medium-term.
  - Livestock I/O ratio guidance: cattle 75 percent; sheep and goats 44 percent; pigs 80 percent; poultry 50 percent; continue 50 percent for rabbits, horses and donkeys.
  - Fisheries I/O ratio recommended to move from 50 percent to 40 percent per Fisheries Department estimate; include catch landed in Guyana from 2017 and estimate back to 2015.
  - Recommend ongoing large-sample Seasonal Agriculture Survey as cost-effective alternative to decadal census over a 10-year period.
- Mining and quarrying:
  - Use separate I/O ratios for each sub-industry based on 2015 SUT.
  - ANAS excludes production of small gold producers; use quantity of gold exports adjusted for domestic use as volume indicator.
  - Add own-account exploration output to GFCF; include informal operators and offshore petroleum exploration by identified operators.
- Manufacturing:
  - Accounted for 9.7 percent of GDP in 2015.
  - Use production quantities for KPV where possible; develop PPI and use detailed CPI proxies interim.
  - Reclassify publishing activities to communication and information services.
- Construction:
  - CPV compiled via commodity flow; current trade margin of 3 percent is low and needs review.
  - Undertake construction industry study to rebase BPI; commodity flow estimates to be compiled at more detailed level and split by residential, commercial and civil works.
- Wholesale and retail trade; motor vehicles:
  - Implement commodity flow approach at product group level; derive margins from 2015 SUT; separate motor vehicle sales and repairs per ISIC Rev.4 where possible.
- Transport and storage:
  - Compile separate estimates for buses, taxis and freight using vehicle registrations and cargo volumes as volume indicators; compile quarterly estimates using same indicators benchmarked to annual totals.
- Hotels and restaurants:
  - Separate accommodation services and food & beverage catering; use Tourist Foundation immigration and Visitor Exit Survey for volume and average expenditure indicators; compile quarterly estimates and sum to annual.
- Financial and insurance activities:
  - Implement 2008 SNA FISIM methodology; request detailed CBS banking data (interest payable/receivable by industry/households, split of NPISHs) to calculate and allocate FISIM including imports of FISIM.
  - Short-term fix for CBS dividend treatment: increase CBS output and GVA by dividend amount until detailed data provided.
- Government final consumption expenditure (GFCE):
  - Deduct sales revenue from output; derive KPV by deflating components using best proxy adjusted CPI at 2015=100; aggregate Government expenses into 15–20 broad groups for deflation.
- HFCE (household final consumption expenditure):
  - Current methods overestimate HFCE; recommendation: compile HFCE independently for 2015 series at detailed COICOP (4–6 digit) using benchmark-indicator approach and separate own-produced, domestically produced purchases, and imported purchases.
- Gross capital formation:
  - Improve GFCF by commodity flow at detailed product level; include own-produced GFCF for agriculture; compile biological assets, intellectual property products and valuables; improve CFC via PIM in medium-term.

### Surveys, benchmarks and studies needed
- Two BM studies recommended in early 2017: trade margins and freight transport margins (collect margins from major supermarkets and specialty stores); construction industry study underway to update construction costs and mark-ups for 2015 SUT.
- Fisheries and Agriculture surveys recommended:
  - Large-sample Fisheries Survey in 2020 for rebasing purposes.
  - Consider US Department of Agriculture-style multi-cropping Seasonal Agriculture Survey for improved ongoing data.
- Continuous survey program recommended: one large survey each year in a five-yearly cycle to smooth funding and provide regular rebasing data.

### Dissemination, metadata and quality assurance
- Improve dissemination: add separate tables on output and IC by activity in current and constant prices; tables of implicit price deflators for GVA, output and IC; revision tables; include advance release calendar on GBS website.
- Update and disseminate metadata on annual national accounts concepts, sources and methods via GBS website.
- GBS to approach Statistics Canada for PRASC QA support and CARTAC to provide remote TA; tentative follow-up CARTAC mission planned for August 2018 to review balanced 2015 SUT and finalize rebased GDP estimates.

*Source: IMF/CARTAC mission report Executive Summary (cr17187).*

### Executive Summary ......................................................................................................

### Executive Summary

### Mission context and scope
- A technical assistance (TA) mission was undertaken by the Real Sector Statistics Advisor (RSA) at the Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC) to Paramaribo during February 7–17, 2017, at the request of the General Bureau of Statistics (GBS) of Suriname and in consultation with IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department (WHD).
- Objective: review and provide advice on improving the national accounts of Suriname, including consistency with the System of National Accounts 2008.

### Current status of national accounts
- GBS currently produces:
  - annual estimates of GDP by economic activity (GDP-P) at current and constant 2007 prices;
  - annual current price estimates for GDP by expenditure (GDP-E) broadly consistent with the System of National Accounts 1993;
  - annual estimates of Gross National Income and Gross National Disposable Income.
- Quarterly GDP estimates are not compiled.

### Main findings on data sources and compilation
- Source data and operational issues identified:
  - Need to expand use of administrative data, especially from the Tax Department, Ministry of Finance (MOF) and the Central Bank of Suriname (CBS).
  - Business register needs updating using the 2015 Establishment Census and regulatory data.
  - Annual and quarterly business surveys require redevelopment.
  - Subannual collection of prices and volume data should be expanded.
  - Construction industry, trade and transport margin studies are required to compile the 2015 SUT and to rebase GDP.
- Data provision and processing:
  - High priority: request MOF to provide Government accounts data in Excel format for 2015 onward to reduce staff time wasted on data entry and transcription errors.
  - Currently no data provided to the GBS by the Tax Department; formal agreement with the Department is needed to share tax registration data, company income tax returns and sales tax returns.
  - Statistics Canada (PRASC) engagement: Director to share mission’s final report and arrange missions with Statistics Canada to assist quality assuring administrative and survey data for SUT and GDP-E development.

### Methodological recommendations — GDP by economic activity (GDP-P)
- Improvements recommended:
  - Implement the 2008 SNA methodology for calculating and fully allocating Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured (FISIM).
  - Implement work-in-progress methodology for agriculture and construction.
  - Discontinue the use of fixed intermediate consumption (IC) to output ratios for current price estimates.
  - Improve deflation/reflation of intermediate consumption (IC).
  - Implement International Standard Industry Classification Revision 4 (ISIC Rev.4) for national accounts.
  - Use volume extrapolation of deflated imports and outputs at a more detailed level to derive taxes less subsidies on products in constant prices.
- Quarterly GDP-P:
  - Broad methodological advice provided; development subject to additional budget.

### Methodological recommendations — GDP by expenditure (GDP-E)
- Advice included:
  - Use the benchmark-indicator approach to develop independent estimates of household final consumption expenditure.
  - Use the commodity flow approach at the detailed product level for gross fixed capital formation and changes in inventories.
  - Add to gross capital formation: biological assets, research and development, database and software development, intellectual property, and net acquisition of valuables.
  - Deflate expenditure components at the detailed product level.

### Supply and Use Tables (SUT) and rebasing
- Advice provided on data sources and methodology to produce the 2015 SUT and rebase GDP.
- A draft SUT frame of 127 industries and 164 product groups was developed.
- Training was provided on recommended changes in source data and methodology.
- CARTAC will provide remote TA as needed; a follow-up CARTAC mission is tentatively planned for August 2018 to review the balanced 2015 SUT and help finalize rebased GDP estimates for dissemination.

### Capacity, resources, and institutional recommendations
- Staff capacity and budget:
  - Further staff capacity building is required.
  - The budget of the GBS needs to be expanded to improve data collection and compilation.
  - An additional two prices statisticians and two economic statisticians need to be recruited by January 2019.
- Institutional arrangements:
  - Implement formal data coordination through memoranda of understanding (MOU) with key data providers.
  - Establish a Technical Committee of key data providers and users to improve data coordination/project implementation.

### Action plan — medium-term implementation and timelines (high-level highlights)
- Overall objective: Expansion and improvement of the national accounts consistent with the 2008 SNA and meeting e-GDDS requirements by 12/31/2021.
- Key target dates and milestones (selected):
  - Business register updated using Establishment Census data for 2015: 04/30/2017.
  - Revised production estimates for 2015 (gross up enterprise survey using updated register): 05/31/2017.
  - Informal sector and subsistence production estimates from 2012 Census, LFS, and HBS extraction: 06/15/2017.
  - Trade and freight transport margins studies completed: 06/15/2017.
  - Expanded merchandise commodity and trade in services data from CBS collected: 05/31/2017.
  - Improve annual enterprise survey, CPI, PPI (including BPI), XPI and MPI, and other indicators by 06/30/2018 (targeted staging and PRASC/CARTAC support noted per activity).
  - Establish Integrated Business Register (IBR): 06/30/2019.
  - Compile the 2015 SUT template and finalize SUT balancing and BM estimates: initial SUT product and industry list developed 02/17/2017; SUT balanced and finalized BM estimates produced by 07/31/2018.
  - Redevelop national accounts compilation system with 2015 base year and incorporate BM estimates: redevelopment completed by 07/31/2018; rebased annual GDP-P estimates compiled by 08/31/2018.
  - Link rebased GDP 2015 series to the 2007 series by 09/15/2018.
  - Compile quarterly GDP-P at current and constant prices by 08/31/2020 and disseminate quarterly GDP by economic activity at current and constant 2015 prices by 09/30/2020.
  - Dissemination improvements and release of rebased series and updated manuals targeted for 2018–2020 (specific dissemination dates include 08/31/2017 for improved annual GDP series at 2007 prices and 09/30/2018 for rebased 2015 GDP series).
- Staffing increase:
  - Increase GBS staffing by two prices and two economic statisticians by January 31, 2019; GBS to recruit a prices and an economic statistician in both January 2018 and January 2019 according to action plan.
- Financing and TA:
  - Secure additional budget and development partner financing by 12/31/2018.
  - Secure additional TA from PRASC and other partners by 12/31/2018; CARTAC to provide remote TA and planned missions.

### Implementation assumptions and support
- Assumptions stated in the action plan:
  - The authorities will ensure that appropriate staff and other resources, including financing and TA, are available to implement the action plan.
  - GBS to request PRASC TA and CARTAC support for specified activities.
  - Availability and cooperation of key data providers (MOF, CBS, Tax Department) and Statistics Canada for PRASC activities.

*Source: IMF/CARTAC mission report Executive Summary (cr17187).*

### 1. In response to a request from the General Bureau of Statistics (GBS) of

### cr17187 - 1. In response to a request from the General Bureau of Statistics (GBS) of

### Mission overview and main objectives
- A CARTAC Real Sector Statistics Advisor (RSA) mission to Paramaribo during February 7–17, 2017, reviewed and advised on improving Suriname’s national accounts, including consistency with the System of National Accounts 2008 (2008 SNA).
- GBS current outputs:
  - Annual GDP by economic activity (GDP-P) at current and constant 2007 prices.
  - Annual GDP by expenditure (GDP-E) at current prices broadly consistent with the 1993 SNA.
  - Annual Gross National Income and Gross National Disposable Income.
  - Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI).
  - Quarterly labor force statistics.
  - Annual population estimates/projections by age and gender.
- GBS does not compile quarterly GDP; Central Bank of Suriname (CBS) currently compiles International Merchandise Trade Statistics (IMTS).

### e-GDDS and methodological priorities
- Key recommendations tied to e-GDDS:
  - Rebase GDP to 2015.
  - Produce independent annual GDP-E at current and constant prices.
  - Encourage production of quarterly GDP at current and constant prices, a monthly Producer Price Index (PPI), and a monthly production volume index as relevant.
  - Include an advance release calendar on the GBS website.
- Director is considering development of quarterly GDP and a quarterly PPI.

### Mission outputs and follow-up
- Mission activities:
  - Reviewed and advised on annual GDP-P and GDP-E estimates.
  - Advised on quarterly GDP-P methodologies.
  - Advised on methodology and source data for Supply and Use Tables (SUT) and rebasing to 2015.
  - Provided training to GBS staff and drafted a medium-term action plan and draft timetable.
- Capacity and resource needs identified: increased budget, additional staffing, further staff capacity building.
- Implementation timeline: progressive over a five-year period.
- Planned support and next steps:
  - Director to share final report and arrange missions with Statistics Canada under PRASC for quality assurance of administrative and survey data, development of GDP-E methodology, and SUT compilation.
  - CARTAC to provide remote TA as needed.
  - Tentative follow-up CARTAC mission planned for August 2018 to review balanced 2015 SUT and help finalize rebased annual GDP estimates.

*Executive materials included in report: Executive Summary, draft Action Plan, Sections II–VI, Appendices I–IV.*

### II. Statistics prerequisites — legal and institutional environment
Findings
- Statistics Act assigns primary responsibility and authority to GBS for collection, processing, dissemination of real sector and other statistics; working arrangements largely consistent with responsibilities.
- Other producers: CBS (external and financial sector statistics), Ministry of Finance (fiscal statistics).
- Confidentiality: individual reporters’ data are kept confidential and used for statistical purposes only.
- Current approach relies on goodwill for mandatory reporting; response rates are low:
  - Quarterly National Accounts Survey (QNAS) response rate averages around 40 percent.
  - Annual National Accounts Survey (ANAS) response rate averages around 65 percent.
- Data sharing between agencies and GBS needs strengthening and formalization via memoranda of understanding (MOU).
- GBS involvement required in design of censuses/surveys to ensure adequacy for national accounts.

Recommendations
- Amend the legislation to strengthen penalties and streamline enforcement for non-compliance.
- Provide a pamphlet to new survey units identifying the uses of the data requested.
- Provide survey respondents with industry specific output and intermediate consumption (IC) and compensation of employees (COE) data to help improve response rates.
- GBS censuses or surveys should not be designed or conducted without the input and sign-off of the national accounts team.
- Access to data within the GBS by national accounts compilers should be routine and not require Director level approval.
- Establish a technical working group on economic statistics that meets quarterly to improve data coordination and internal access to GBS data.
- Update the MOU between the GBS and the CBS and establish MOU with other key data producing agencies (e.g., Agriculture Department, Customs, Fisheries Department, Tax Department).

### II.B Staff capacity and other resources
Findings
- Current national accounts compilation staffing level is adequate, but overall GBS staffing and resources for data collection and economic statistics are inadequate.
- Additional work required: updating business register; expanding data collection for PPI including Building Inputs Price Index (BPI); producing BPI, PPI, exports price index (XPI) and imports price index (MPI); redeveloping national accounts compilation systems and worksheets.
- Additional budget and four statisticians needed to meet expansion requirements.
- Need to strengthen technical knowledge and system development skills of compilers; more time required for methodological improvements, data analysis, and quality assurance.
- Some staff received CARTAC and other TA training; additional training on 2008 SNA issues required.
- Office facilities generally adequate but will need expansion with recruitment.

Recommendations
- Recruit a prices statistician and an economic statistician in both January 2018 and January 2019.
- Introduce more selective editing to reduce staff workloads given Customs is auditing import manifests for outliers.
- GBS approach Statistics Canada to assist with developing a quality assurance framework to strengthen staff focus on data quality.
- Build staff capacity through in-house coaching and mentoring, alternate compilers checking worksheets, and conducting 1–2 hours training sessions weekly.

### II.C Financing and technical assistance
Findings
- Current funding for data coordination, necessary surveys, and improving economic statistics is inadequate.
- Current funding model requires bidding for additional resources for each major survey (e.g., Household Budget Survey (HBS)), causing delays and affecting rebasing frequency for CPI and GDP.
- Recommended continuous survey program: one large survey each year in a five-yearly cycle to smooth funding and provide regular rebasing data.
- Implementation of expanded data collection and coordination activities requires additional financing and TA.
- CARTAC expected to undertake around 4-5 national accounts and prices statistics missions to assist with the medium-term action plan, subject to authorities providing additional staffing and financing.
- Further TA needed from other providers (e.g., US Department of Agriculture) for agriculture and fishing surveys.

Recommendations
- Increase the GBS budget in 2018 and 2019 to cover additional data collection, coordination and staffing costs for this project.
- Secure budget and implement a continuous survey program, with one large survey each year.
- Secure PRASC TA to assist with improving the business register, enterprise and household surveys; quality assuring output data; compilation of the SUT and GDP-E estimates; and development of the XPI and MPI.

### III. Data sources
Findings
- Mission reviewed available annual and subannual value, volume, indicator and prices data for national accounts compilation; identified scope to expand data collection and improve response rates.
- Proposed data strategy: greater use of administrative data plus benchmark (BM) studies and surveys to address data gaps for SUT and BM estimates.
- Strategy to implement benchmark-indicator approach for ongoing annual and quarterly compilation, leveraging administrative datasets and using GBS surveys to adjust administrative data to align with 2008 SNA.
- Main data sources reviewed are discussed in Appendix II (report).

Recommendations
- Assist key data providing agencies to improve classifications and quality of administrative data systems.
- Make greater use of administrative data from regulatory agencies.
- Develop the Integrated Business Register (IBR) in coordination with the Tax Department, business licensing agencies and CBS to facilitate continuous updating.
- Implement data collection for the BPI and PPI, redesign ANAS and QNAS samples and questionnaires, and strengthen response follow-up procedures.
- Conduct a five-yearly cycle of benchmark studies and surveys needed to compile the SUT and rebase the CPI and GDP.

### IV. Supply and Use Tables (SUT)
Findings
- Current GBS staff lacks experience producing SUTs; urgent need to rebase GDP from 2007 to 2015.
- Given resources, possible to compile a whole-economy SUT based on product commodity flow balances, industry balances, and input-output matrix; insufficient source data for satellite accounts or institutional sector accounts.
- Earlier CARTAC 2015 SUT reviewed: essentially a commodity flow framework without input-output matrix; intended to produce balanced annual GDP-P and GDP-E but not completed timely due to staff and source data constraints.
- Classification details:
  - 2,342 products classified by Central Product Classification, Version 2 (CPC).
  - 32 industries classified by ISIC Rev. 3.
  - CPC aggregated to 32 product groups per Classification of Products by Activity (CPA) due to lack of production and government consumption detail at CPC level.
- During the mission a list for 2015 BM estimates was developed:
  - 164 product groups based on the CPA.
  - 127 industries based on ISIC Rev. 4.
- Current industry gross value-added (GVA) estimates are based on ISIC Rev. 3; intention to align compilation worksheets with ISIC Rev. 4 and 2008 SNA.
- RSA provided training on compiling SUT, product balance and industry balance worksheets; separate Excel SUT templates provided for corporations, Government, NPISHs, households, rest of the World, and whole economy, plus templates for industry and product balances.
- IMF Statistics Department’s new SUT balancing software was provided.
- Industry balance compilation explained: compile output, IC and GVA by institutional sector for each industry and reconcile with product balances compiled via commodity flow approach at basic and purchaser prices.
- Data inputs and main gaps identified for 2015 SUT: use external trade data; 2013/14 HBS (price and volume adjust to 2015); 2012 Census of Population and Housing for HFCE; 2015 ANAS and Labor Force Survey (LFS) data; external and financial sector data from CBS; Government accounts from MOF.
- Informal sector coverage approach: calculate values per informal sector worker by industry multiplied by number of informal workers using LFS and 2012 Census forward-rated to 2015; 2013/14 HBS provides partial estimates for backyard and other own-consumption production.
- Illegal activities coverage: use Customs and Police data on drug seizures and percentage estimates of seizures vs estimated supply; police for other illegal activities; legal betting/gambling establishments for illegal gambling. Conservative estimates recommended given limited data.

Recommendations
- Calculate freight transport margins and trade margins using CPI prices and equivalent import and producer prices.
- Update BM ratios for construction project inputs and mark-ups.

### V. GDP by economic activity (introductory findings)
- The mission provided main findings and recommendations to expand and improve GDP-P estimates (detailed findings and recommendations included in Appendix III).
- Workstreams include adapting classifications to ISIC Rev. 4, redeveloping compilation worksheets, implementing rebasing to 2015, and completing balanced SUT to support GDP-P and GDP-E estimates.

*This summary is based on the CARTAC RSA mission report to the General Bureau of Statistics of Suriname (February 7–17, 2017).*

### 22. The compilation methodology and worksheets for producing the annual

### 22. The compilation methodology and worksheets for producing the annual

### Annual and quarterly GDP-P compilation: current status and needs
- The compilation methodology and worksheets for producing the annual GDP-P estimates were reviewed during the mission.
- There is considerable scope to improve the annual compilation methodology.
- Most of the data required to compile the quarterly GDP-P estimates are being collected, but:
  - Access to these data and the timeliness of providing the data to the national accounts compilers needs to be significantly improved.
- Most industry estimates are to be compiled using single value (e.g., QNAS output data) or volume indicators (e.g., output quantities, LFS employment) benchmarked to the annual output and IC estimates using the Excel Proportional Denton Method Benchmarking software.
- Resulting estimates are to be deflated or reflated using relevant CPI, PPI or other price indices and benchmarked to derive:
  - equivalent constant price value (KPV) estimates, or
  - current price value (CPV) estimates.
- A more disaggregated commodity flow approach will be used for the construction industry and wholesale and retail trade.

### Integrated compilation system and data consistency
- An integrated compilation system for producing the annual and quarterly GDP-P estimates is to be developed.
- All compilers should use the same input data files for industry and expenditure component compilation workbooks, for example:
  - 2015=100 price indices developed using the BPI, CPI, MPI, PPI and XPI;
  - other current price indicators;
  - population, employment and other volume indicators.
- This will ensure consistent use of survey data, price indices and indicators.
- Quarterly indicators would still be benchmarked to the more comprehensive annual estimates.
  - Where subannual indicator and prices data are being used to compile the annual estimates, the quarterly estimates would be compiled first with the annual estimates being the sum of the relevant quarterly estimates.

### Dissemination and metadata
- Dissemination of the annual estimates can be improved by adding:
  - separate tables on output and IC by economic activity in current and constant prices;
  - tables of implicit price deflators for GVA, output, and IC;
  - revision tables.
- Metadata documentation of the annual national accounts concepts, sources and methods needs to be updated and disseminated via the GBS’s website.

### Recommendations (methodology, classification, indices, and scope)
- Rebase the GDP-P estimates to the 2015 base year in order to compile KPV estimates using contemporary industry cost structures.
- Discontinue the use of fixed IC to output ratios for CPV estimates.
- Develop composite weighted IC price indices, using the weights based on 2015 SUT input-output matrix to select at least 5–6 adjusted CPI/PPI-based price indices, to reflate the KPV IC to derive the CPV IC estimates or to deflate CPV estimates to derive the KPV estimates.
- Transition from ISIC Rev. 3 to ISIC Rev. 4.
- Revise the industries for which annual estimates are compiled, including increasing the level of detail that services industry estimates are compiled (e.g., business and personal services), while ensuring compilation is still done at a minimum two-digit ISIC Rev. 4 level for all relevant industries.
- Use the benchmark-indicator approach to extrapolate the BM estimates using partial data as value and volume indicators, instead of attempting to develop actual annual estimates by adjusting the partial data using limited information.
- Convert business financial year data to calendar year using subannual indicators (e.g., revenue) and benchmarking.
- Introduce the 2008 SNA work-in-progress (WIP) methodology for construction in the 2015 GDP series and for agriculture in the medium-term.
- Improve the coverage of the informal sector activities in the 2015 GDP series; and production for own consumption of non-agriculture produce and illegal activities (where feasible) in the medium-term.
- Revise the current trade margins applied in the construction and trade worksheets.
- Implement the 2008 SNA methodology for calculating financial services indirectly measured (FISIM) and improve its allocation by industry and expenditure component.
- Split out non-profit institutions serving households (NPISHs) production by economic activity.
- Implement volume extrapolation of deflated imports and outputs at a more detailed level to derive taxes on products in constant prices.

### VI. GDP BY EXPENDITURE — overview
- The GBS compiles annual GDP-E estimates at current prices, with private consumption derived as a residual.
  - This private consumption residual includes elements of GFCF, changes in inventories, as well as final consumption expenditure (FCE) by NPISHs.
- Several 2008 SNA recommendations need to be implemented (e.g., biological assets, artistic originals).
- The mission conducted a training session on concepts, data sources and methodologies for compiling expenditure components.
- Further assistance on developing the GDP-E methodology and worksheets, and producing the estimates is to be requested from the PRASC project.
- The difference between the sum of the GDP-E components and GDP-P is the statistical discrepancy:
  - Given the GDP-P estimates are more robust, the discrepancy should be shown explicitly on the expenditure side.

### A. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE)
- GFCE CPV estimates are based on Government accounts data, to which an estimate for FISIM is added.
- Sales revenue needs to be deducted from output.
- KPV GFCE estimates are to be derived by adding the deflated components.
- KPV estimate for compensation of employees (COE) can be derived by deflating the CPV estimate using the weighted wage index.
- KPV estimates should be derived separately for:
  - consumption of fixed capital (CFC), and
  - intermediate consumption (IC) components (to include FISIM) at a more detailed level.
- Detailed expenses in Government accounts should be aggregated into 15-20 broad expenditure groups with the best proxy adjusted CPI (i.e., 2015 = 100) used to deflate estimates to derive KPV estimates.
- Advice was provided on developing a new workbook including detailed estimates of Government output, IC, GVA (to include CFC) and GFCE by Classification of the Functions of Government and ISIC Rev. 4 based on Government accounts data.
- Example price deflators suggested for specific government expense categories (to be discussed with MOF before use), including:
  - CPI electricity for electricity;
  - CPI water charges for water;
  - goods CPI for supplies and materials;
  - CPI for communications for communications;
  - construction industry implicit price deflator (IPD) for buildings and roads repairs and maintenance;
  - CPI for vehicle repairs and maintenance for vehicle maintenance and repairs;
  - actual rents CPI for rental of assets;
  - insurance CPI for insurance;
  - land transport CPI for local travel;
  - air transport CPI for international travel;
  - CPI education for training;
  - restaurants IPD for hosting and entertainment;
  - services CPI for professional and other services;
  - goods CPI for other/sundry expenses.
- CPV and KPV estimates for GFCE derived by deducting Government sales revenue from Government output estimates at the function/industry level, using the IPD for Government output to deflate Government sales to derive the KPV sales estimates.

### B. Final Consumption Expenditure of NPISHs
- Separate estimates of FCE by NPISHs are not currently compiled.
- CPV estimates can be produced using output estimates compiled using data from the ANAS, adjusted for sales data.
- KPV output estimates can be derived by deflating the CPV COE estimates using a wage index and using a composite price index for IC to deflate CPV estimates to derive KPV estimates.

### C. Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HFCE)
- Current CPV method: derived at the 1 to 2-digit COICOP level using average expenditure per household in 2007 multiplied by number of households adjusted for CPI changes, or a broad commodity flow approach.
  - Both methods overestimate HFCE.
  - Limitations of first method: assumes poorer rural households have similar expenditure to richer coastal households.
  - Limitations of commodity flow approach: includes tax rates and trade margins not adjusted to reflect actual tax collected or percentage purchased from traders; assumes no compositional change; assumes fixed proportion of supply is HFCE; assumes supply side estimates are correct; ignores net migration from rural to urban areas.
- Recommendation: compile HFCE estimates independently for the 2015 GDP series, using relevant value or volume indicators to extrapolate base year estimates using detailed COICOP (4-6 digit) rather than using a commodity flow approach directly.
- The mission provided an HFCE template to compile separate CPV and KPV estimates of:
  - own-produced,
  - domestically produced purchases, and
  - purchases of imported goods and services at detailed COICOP level.
- Commodity flow approach at more detailed product level can derive value indicators to extrapolate benchmark estimates.
- Available sources to investigate feasibility include detailed value (e.g., sales to residents from utility companies) and volume (e.g., household formation, population by gender, electricity connections, student enrolments) data.
- Same approach could be used for quarterly estimates, with annual estimates as the sum of relevant quarters.
- For consumption of own-produced goods:
  - CPV and KPV estimates can be compiled using CPV and KPV output for relevant agriculture, forestry, fishing and manufacturing industries as value and volume indicators.
  - Same approach for owner-occupied dwellings.
- For purchases of domestically produced goods and services:
  - KPV estimates can be compiled using KPV output from production side at detailed industry level as volume indicators to extrapolate base year estimates, then reflate using relevant CPI to derive CPV estimates.
  - This ensures KPV estimates reflect base period margins for goods and product taxes; reflation with CPI reflects changes in margins and product taxes.
- For imported component:
  - Imports valued at c.i.f. adjusted for re-exports, classified according to the detailed Standard International Trade Classification, can derive imported consumer goods estimates used as value indicators for CPV estimates.
  - c.i.f. values need adjustment for import duties, excise and other product taxes and fees; and trade margins.
  - Imports of services based on balance of payments estimates.
  - Detailed CPI then used to deflate these estimates to derive equivalent KPV estimates.

### D. Gross Capital Formation (GFCF)
- GFCF estimates are based on ANAS output data, but level of reporting of GFCF is inadequate.
- Improvements:
  - Compile estimates using commodity flow approach at more detailed product level.
  - Construction GFCF: adjust output by deducting repairs and maintenance and adding relevant taxes and transfer of ownership costs.
  - Same methodology for annual and quarterly estimates.
  - Include own-produced GFCF for agriculture (e.g., dams, fences, irrigation canals).
- Machinery, transport and other equipment:
  - CPV estimates can be improved by adding imports and domestic production of capital goods plus taxes and margins, less exports and HFCE, at disaggregated product level.
  - KPV estimates derived by deflating detailed CPV commodity values using relevant MPI.
  - Unit value-based MPI indices likely have significant variations; unit values will need trimming for outliers.
- Production output relating to mining and petroleum exploration needs to be added to GFCF.
- Estimates for biological assets (e.g., breeding livestock and fruit trees); intellectual property products; database and software development; artistic originals; and scientific R&D need compilation in production worksheets and then used in GFCF.
- GBS to work with the Agriculture Department to develop WIP compilation methodology needed to compile biological assets estimates.
- CFC estimates:
  - Can be compiled by adjusting depreciation data from ANAS and using the perpetual inventory model (PIM).
  - Survey data along with data on net imports of various industry specific machinery and equipment and loans can be used to develop detailed PIM to compile stock of GFCF by activity and then apply CFC rates.
  - In short term, possible to develop CFC estimates using percent ratios based on estimated useful age of assets applied to GFCF estimates by type.
- Inventories:
  - Data on changes in inventories reported on ANAS forms or extracted from financial statements can be included but should not be grossed up using business register turnover data unless response rates are over 90 percent.
  - Agriculture Department annual bulletin includes inventories of livestock numbers by type, enabling calculation of changes in inventories for livestock.
- Acquisition less disposals of valuables:
  - Can be compiled using commodity flow approach, using external trade, HBS, ANAS and Government accounts data for the 2015 SUT.
  - GBS view: households do not hold precious gems, metals or jewelry as a store of wealth.
  - Quarterly imports of precious metals and stones, antiques and collectibles (adjusted for international visitors’ purchases) can be used to extrapolate base year estimate to derive quarterly CPV estimates.
  - General CPI can be used to deflate CPV estimates to derive KPV estimates.

### E. Exports and Imports of Goods and Services
- CPV estimates for imports and exports of goods and services are compiled using Customs trade data and balance of payments services credits and debits estimates.
  - It would be better to use CBS merchandise trade data as it is adjusted for change of ownership, coverage and timing.
- FISIM on exports and imports need to be included in services credits and debits.
- Need to conduct regular surveys to collect expenditure data for resident expenditure abroad.
- KPV estimates for goods can be compiled using unit value-based MPI and XPI.
- Travel credits allocated across products in HFCE compilation; relevant product level CPI should be used for deflation.
- Imports of freight and insurance services:
  - Cargo volumes of imports could be used as volume indicators to extrapolate BM estimates to derive KPV estimates.
- Travel debits:
  - A weighted price index of the CPIs for the main countries visited abroad can be used to deflate travel debits.
- Other exports and imports of services:
  - Equivalent implicit price deflator from production worksheets can be used.
- Need to collect balance of payments income and services data by predominant country from the CBS to:
  - identify main partner countries,
  - develop weighted price indices using relevant price indices for those countries,
  - identify most relevant inter-bank lending rate to apply to FISIM imports.

### Appendix II — assessment of selected data sources (high-level)
- Administrative and regulatory data available from Government agencies that are or could be used by GBS include:
  - agriculture and fisheries data from Agriculture and Fisheries Departments;
  - foreign trade, cargo and shipping data from Customs Department;
  - balance of payments and banking data from Central Bank of Suriname (CBS);
  - fiscal and tax revenue data from Ministry of Finance (MOF).
- Meetings with Agriculture Department, Fisheries Department, Customs Department, CBS and the Tourism Foundation identified new data to improve national accounts (e.g., updated intermediate consumption-output (I/O) ratios).

### Agriculture Department data — specifics and gaps
- FAO-promoted routine data collection used by Agriculture Department covers crop production quantities and area cultivated; used to extrapolate 2008 Agriculture Census benchmark estimates.
- Coverage limited to coastal areas but includes subsistence farming.
- Annual survey of fruit and vegetable growers was last conducted in 2014.
- Intermediate consumption (IC) and labor costs data are not collected.
- Prices are collected from farmers and assumed to be farm-gate.
- Department provides data to GBS on an annual basis but has subannual data.
- Actions suggested:
  - GBS to meet Department technical staff to collect updated I/O ratios for three major crop groupings being used.
  - Use rural coastal data to ratio estimate production in the interior based on average production and 2012 Census data on farming households.
  - Check production data to see if adjusted for post-harvest loss.
  - Backyard production for own consumption not covered and needs estimation using 2013/14 Household Budget Survey (HBS) and the 2015 Supply and Use Tables (SUT).
  - Request quarterly production data from the Department.

*Source: cr17187 - 22. The compilation methodology and worksheets for producing the annual*

### 5. The RSA advised that the conduct an ongoing large-sample Seasonal

### 5. The RSA advised that the conduct an ongoing large-sample Seasonal Agriculture Survey would provide more accurate and complete data at around the same cost as an Agriculture Census over a 10-year period

### Agriculture survey, SUT rebasing, and WIP/GFCF
- Finding: An ongoing large-sample Seasonal Agriculture Survey would provide more accurate and complete data at around the same cost as an Agriculture Census over a 10-year period.
- Action: The US Department of Agriculture multi-cropping area sample survey implemented in Ethiopia and Rwanda was explained and the Department was encouraged to discuss this option with the FAO and the US Department of Agriculture.
- Finding: Development of work-in-progress (WIP) estimates discussed; crop calendar and cost structure data by major crop type requested to develop WIP estimates.
- Finding: Given abundant rainfall and adequate irrigation, production is continuous for most fruit and vegetables, so the WIP methodology is not required for most produce; some crops like onions and yams are seasonal and require crop calendars and cost data.
- Recommendation: GBS staff should work with the Department staff to develop WIP estimates for inclusion in the 2020 SUT.
- Recommendation: Use the next Population Census to collect data on number of fruit trees (by type) owned by households to help develop gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) estimates for fruit trees.
- Difficulty noted: Most trees are not in orchards, being planted and not necessarily cared for in backyards, complicating GFCF measurement.

### Livestock data, inventories, and I/O ratios
- Current practice: Livestock Division provides annual data to the GBS on estimated stocks and animals slaughtered (cattle, goats, sheep and pigs); poultry (broilers and layers) and eggs production.
- Method: Livestock inventories and poultry are estimated using a basic perpetual inventory method (PIM); FAO is assisting the Division to collect data to develop the standard FAO PIM over the next year.
- Data collection: Cost structure and related data are collected from main producers or estimated at industry level using known output and imported inputs (e.g., animal feed).
- Current estimated I/O ratios:
  - cattle: 75 percent
  - sheep and goats: 44 percent
  - pigs: 80 percent
  - poultry: 50 percent
- Finding: Latest surveyed inventory of livestock is the 2008 Agriculture Census; coverage not considered to be good.
- Slaughter coverage and adjustments:
  - Coverage for cattle and pigs slaughtered: felt to be quite comprehensive.
  - Coverage for goats, sheep, poultry, ducks and rabbits: not comprehensive.
  - Division estimates of additional on-farm slaughter (as a percent of recorded inventories and in addition to recorded data):
    - goats and sheep: a further 50 percent
    - chicken: 25 percent
  - Ducks: estimated to be 50 percent of chicken in terms of inventories and slaughter; around 12,000 a year sold to supermarkets and the rest slaughtered on farm.
- Stock counts and other figures:
  - rabbits: approximately 1 to 1.5 million
  - dairy herd: 4,200 heads (3,000 cows)
  - horses: 500
  - donkeys: 3
- Consumption-based cross-checks requested: average consumption data for cross-checks should be used:
  - beef and pork: 5.5 Kgs each
  - goats and sheep: 0.5 Kgs each
  - chicken: 14.5 chicken
- Recommendation: Use the next Population Census to collect stocks of male and female animals by type (cattle, sheep, goats, pigs, poultry, rabbits and other animals).
- Recommendation: Strongly recommended that the GBS support the Agriculture Department in implementing a similar Agriculture Survey for Suriname akin to the US Department of Agriculture survey (which also collected livestock birth rates, age, gender, farm slaughter and other information).

### Fisheries data, coverage, and survey needs
- Current methods: Fisheries Department collects production data via a census of 80 large industry vessels and a sample of around 1,000 smaller artisanal vessels at main landing sites; Department is tracking 40 percent of the smaller vessels.
- Annual activities: An annual census of fishing vessels by size is conducted and used to gross up sample fish catch by type of vessel.
- Inclusion rules:
  - Landed catch of fishing vessels licensed in Suriname should be included in production estimates, including fish landed in Guyana.
  - Catch landed in Guyana (by 60 vessels a day) will be included from 2017 and needs to be estimated back to 2015.
  - Fish landed by foreign registered/licensed vessels normally operating in Suriname waters would be included.
  - Landed catch of foreign vessels not resident in Suriname and caught on the high seas is an import.
- Coverage gaps and needs:
  - Subsistence fishing not covered and needs to be estimated using HBS consumption of own caught fish data.
  - Illegal fishing considered minimal.
  - Need to measure value of recreational/charter fishing and fishing competitions in the national accounts.
- Temporal resolution:
  - Most fishers go out on a daily basis; larger vessels make trips longer than a day.
  - Processing is currently annual due to resource constraints; need to process volume and price data monthly or quarterly to derive values that fluctuate through the year and produce quarterly estimates.
- I/O ratio:
  - Department estimates an I/O ratio of 40 percent (based on a cost structure survey for artisanal vessels conducted in 2014 and information on industry vessels).
- Recommendation: GBS support the Fisheries Department in securing budget funding to conduct a large sample Fisheries Survey in 2020 for the subsequent rebasing exercise.

### Customs data, ASYCUDA World, and trade data quality
- System: Customs is using ASYCUDA World; customs declarations and ship manifests lodged electronically at all ports.
- Migration issue: Move to ASYCUDA World was not smooth; classification codes from previous system were not transferable due to old server failure, resulting in no overlap between old and new datasets; new system lacked supplementary (local) codes and coding had to be amended to ensure full coverage.
- Inspection rates and risk management:
  - Physical inspection of around ten percent of containers and other cargo at all ports.
  - This is around half the sample that other countries in the region use.
  - Main focus on value data for imports subject to import duties and quantities for excise; other imports/exports checked on sample basis.
- Integrity concerns:
  - Customs’ main concern: deliberate undervaluation.
  - Limited misclassification to similar or other products with lower tariffs.
  - Smuggling: main seizures relate to alcohol and tobacco but not considered significant; limited monitoring of land borders or coastal landing sites may mean significant smuggling depending on tax differentials with neighboring countries.
  - Transshipment of illegal drugs noted (e.g., 900 kilograms of cocaine were seized recently); domestic use considered insignificant; level of domestic use of imported drugs needs further investigation.
- Data quality recommendations:
  - Use the valuation module of ASYCUDA and allow outlier analysis to assess and compare unit-values with previous month’s average price; update thresholds regularly using commodity prices data from major trading partners.
  - Given current quality assurance measures, data quality concerns exist, especially for exports and low duty imports; GBS staff needs to focus on commodities not being checked by Customs officers.
  - Customs valuation of imports is based on cost and freight as not all importers report insurance and Customs does not insist on it.
- Classification, timing, and coverage issues:
  - Differences in codes used by GBS and Customs discussed regarding re-exports need resolution.
  - For compilation, timing should be at point of import and valued when ownership changes from non-residents to resident traders.
  - Customs re-exports should be reclassified as exports if there is a change of ownership.
  - CBS has noted coverage, valuation and timing improvements needed (e.g., goods exported on a consignment basis).
  - Smaller gold producers sell to middlemen that report to the CBS; a new entrant started exporting gold in November 2016 but none of these exports are reflected in the Customs data.
  - Exports of crude oil and imports of refined petroleum products appear to be under recorded.
  - Going forward, Customs needs to provide better coverage and data quality on international freight and insurance to improve the c.i.f. / f.o.b. ratios at commodity level.
- Recommendation: Industry coding of registered units is needed to identify direct imports versus imports sold by traders (the latter included in commodity flow estimates used to extrapolate trade margins in the production account).
- Recommendation: GBS assist the Customs Department in implementing International Standard Industry Classification for All Economic Activities, Revision 4 (ISIC Rev. 4).

### Central Bank of Suriname (CBS) and financial sector data
- Current provision: GBS is provided by the CBS with annual balance of payments and financial data on activities of the CBS and commercial banks; GBS uses trade in services, income and current transfers data in compiling GDP-E, Gross National Income and Gross Disposable Income estimates.
- Data sources and reconciliation:
  - CBS uses its International Transactions Reporting System, survey of traders (covering 90 percent of exports and 60 percent of imports), Foreign Exchange Commission data, and Customs trade data to produce balance of payments estimates.
  - Adjustments are made for change of ownership, coverage, valuation and timing to Customs data in producing international merchandise trade f.o.b. estimates at commodity group level.
  - CBS staff and GBS trade statisticians need to work together to reconcile the trade statistics each produce.
  - GBS needs to formally request CBS provide more detailed commodity level data for merchandise trade and detailed services data for compiling GDP-E.
- Coverage gaps: Neither CBS nor GBS have information on activities of credit unions and cooperatives; CBS needs to expand coverage of these and other financial institutions.
- Foreign exchange dealers: For foreign exchange dealers’ activities, the Foreign Exchange Commission should be approached for the data.
- Banking data details needed:
  - Banks provide stocks of deposits by broad institutional sector and industry, and loans and advances by industry, households, and nonresidents; these are used in allocating financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM).
  - GBS should request from CBS:
    - interest payable on deposits and interest receivable on loans and advances by industry and households;
    - a split of non-profit institutions serving households (NPISHs) and others for deposits;
    - data on value of deposits and loans (other investment) and related interest receivable/payable by residents by main countries of the non-resident banks.
  - These data are needed to properly calculate and allocate FISIM (including imports of FISIM).
- Monthly indicators: CBS conducts a monthly survey of 200 businesses to produce monthly economic indicators; it takes over a month for the survey response rate to be around 60 percent before monthly indicators are compiled and provided to management.

### Ministry of Finance and Tax Department data sharing
- Finding: Annual provision by the MOF of Government accounts data is generally timely and considered of good quality for coverage and classification of revenue and expenditure items.
- Current format issue: Data provided in hard copy publications for each department/agency; staff time wasted on data entry and potential transcription errors.
- Recommendation: GBS should give high priority to requesting that the data be provided in Excel format for 2015 onward.
- Data gap: No data provided to the GBS by the Tax Department.
- Recommendation: With support of the Minister of Finance, GBS needs to implement a formal agreement with the Tax Department to share tax registration data, company income tax returns and sales tax returns.

### Tourism Foundation immigration data
- Data availability: Monthly Immigration data on number of stay-over tourists available from the Tourist Foundation covering purpose of visit by home country by accommodation type and by length of stay.
- Data quality note: Nationality and residency distinction — GBS needs to check that residency (Question 16 on home country) data are used not nationality (Question 9a).
- Provided: GBS is provided with number of stay-over tourists by type of accommodation.
- Recommendation: The length of stay should also be requested as it is seasonal and can vary over the years; tourist numbers by actual length of stay are a better volume indicator than using tourist arrival numbers multiplied by the 2007 average length of stay.

### Business Register, Establishment Census, ANAS, QNAS, and survey improvements
- Business register:
  - Current register includes around 13,000 establishments; based on registration data from various institutions but not the Tax Department.
  - Mission recommended moving to an Integrated Business Register (IBR) and using reported output or turnover in preference to employment for rating up businesses.
  - IBR should be based on various registry data, especially Tax Department registration.
  - Proposed register fields: statistics registration number, contact person and business address and contact details, institutional sector, primary and secondary industry, latest year’s employment, latest year’s output/turnover data.
- Establishment Census (conducted in 2016 for the 2015 reference year):
  - Collected registration data for units classified by primary industry (ISIC Rev. 4), employment and turnover to update the register.
  - Farmers selling animals or crops directly at markets should not be classified as retailers; fishers selling fish to final consumers could be classified as retailers but require volume data to avoid double-counting.
  - Included all units with a fixed location.
  - Response rate: approximately 89 percent.
  - Establishment Census and surveys include FPIs, public corporations and NPIs, but exclude agriculture, forestry and fishing industries and Government agencies/departments.
- QNAS and ANAS design:
  - QNAS sample is a census of all businesses with ten or more employees (around 1,000 units); ANAS also includes these large units.
  - Largest units by industry are completely enumerated; smaller units with less than ten employees are sampled (1 in 4 or 1 in 5 depending on budget).
  - QNAS response rate averages around 40 percent.
  - ANAS total response rate averages around 65 percent; response rates for large units still around 40 percent and higher response rates for smaller units (over 70 percent).
- Recommended ANAS/QNAS sample redesign and stratification:
  - Move to sampling using turnover as main criterion for FPIs and level of funding for NPIs.
  - Stratify units by contribution to industry turnover:
    - large: those contributing 80 percent of the industry’s turnover;
    - medium: the next 10 percent;
    - small: the remainder.
  - Complete enumeration recommended for the largest 470 FPIs and the largest 30 NPIs (would form the reduced QNAS sample).
  - Medium-sized business stratum (next 10 percent of output by industry) would include around 500 units (sample 1 in 5).
  - Small business stratum sampled 1 in 10.
  - Assuming around 13,000 active employing units, the proposed design would provide a sample of around 2,000 units.
  - Own account workers (with or without unpaid family workers) should be excluded from grossing up to avoid duplication with LFS-derived estimates.
  - Separate questionnaire should be used for NPIs; registered agriculture corporations should be included in the survey for cost structure information.
- Calendar year alignment:
  - Respondents often provide annual data based on their own financial year; annual estimates must be adjusted to calendar year using quarterly turnover from QNAS and benchmarking for large units.
  - If off-calendar reporting cannot be changed, stagger ANAS data collection for large units through the year to align with respondents’ financial year end (by sending questionnaires 2–3 months after financial year end) to smooth workloads and aid follow-up.
- Response rate targets and follow-up methodology:
  - Current response rates for ANAS and QNAS are too low.
  - Implement Impact 4-2-1 methodology: follow-up action four times greater for large units and twice more for medium-sized units than for small units.
  - QNAS response rate targets for large units: 100 percent even if data provided is partial (e.g., sales revenue for the quarter).
  - ANAS response rate targets for large units:
    - 90 percent for preliminary results within 6 months after the reference year (preliminary = completed forms as opposed to basic indicators/partial data);
    - 100 percent for final results.
  - ANAS response rate targets for medium-sized units:
    - around 70 percent for preliminary results;
    - 80 percent for final results.
  - ANAS response rate targets for small units:
    - around 50 percent for preliminary results;
    - 60 percent for final results.

*Source: cr17187 - 5. The RSA advised that the conduct an ongoing large-sample Seasonal Agriculture Survey would provide more accurate and complete data at around the same cost as an Agriculture Census over a 10-year period.*

### 30. Non-response estimation should be based on the growth and movements for

### 30. Non-response estimation should be based on the growth and movements for

### Non-response estimation and survey data integration
- Non-response estimation should be based on the growth and movements for other similar sized businesses.
- Revision studies can be used to adjust the preliminary data.
- Emphasis on data quality: growth rates rather than actual levels, because survey results will be used as indicators to extrapolate benchmarks.
- Access to the monthly survey data compiled by CBS should be requested to:
  - cross-check quarterly estimates, or
  - use as movement indicators where there is non-response.
- For quarterly GDP compilation, the GBS must collaborate with CBS to collect monthly and quarterly value and volume data from administrative sources (e.g., Fisheries Department, Ministry of Finance), telecommunication companies, and utility companies.

### Household Surveys
- 2013/14 HBS data used for CPI rebasing and essential for compiling the 2015 SUT and rebasing GDP.
- Coverage gap: survey did not include the interior; only coastal urban and rural areas.
  - Need to ratio estimate expenditure for households in the interior using "80 percent of the expenditure of rural households in coastal areas" as a proxy (GBS staff estimate interior households' average incomes are around 80 percent of coastal rural households).
  - Grossing up must be done separately for urban, coastal rural and interior households.
- Labour Force Survey (LFS):
  - Conducted quarterly.
  - Sample size: 2,400 households.
  - Households located in 4 Districts: Paramaribo, Wanica, Nickerie and Commewijne.
  - Survey response rates: around 58 percent to 65 percent; with no overlap of sample.
  - Data collected on employment and income for employers, employees, own-account workers and unpaid family workers classified by ISIC Rev. 4.
  - Annualized sample results should be grossed up to estimate:
    - formal sector employment in services and other industries not adequately covered by the ANAS, and
    - informal sector employment (i.e., own-account and unpaid family workers).
  - Income data are not grossed up or published due to lower response rates; however, they should be used to calculate average incomes (i.e. output) per worker for national accounts compilation.

### Tourism Surveys
- Visitor Exit Survey questionnaire reviewed: well-designed, succinct, easy to complete with good sequencing.
- Recommendation: include a question near the front asking for total estimated in-country cost of the visit and persons covered to aid cross-checking.
- Current plan to conduct the survey twice a year (December 19, 2016 to January 31, 2017 and later in 2017 during low season) is inadequate.
  - Recommendation: conduct the survey continuously through the year with a minimum monthly sample of around 500 completed forms.

### Benchmark (BM) Studies
- Two BM studies recommended in early 2017 to collect data by product group on trade margins and freight transport margins.
  - Preferred approach: collect margins from a small sample of the largest supermarkets and specialty stores for broad SUT product categories.
  - Freight transport margins study to collect freight costs associated with these broad product groups.
- Given budget constraints, alternative: deduct import prices paid by traders and producer prices, and associated tax/duty rates from equivalent CPI prices for 2015 to derive proxies for combined trade and transport margin by product group, adjusted for percentage of goods traded.
- Construction industry study:
  - A study is underway to update construction costs and mark-ups for the 2015 SUT.
  - Important that this study collects data to enable separate BM estimates for:
    - residential dwelling construction,
    - commercial property construction, and
    - civil works.

### Prices and Price Indices
- New monthly CPI (April–June 2016 = 100) released mid-2016 with expenditure weights based on 2013/14 HBS; classified using COICOP and CPC.
- CARTAC prices statistics mission confirmed for August 21 to September 1, 2017 to review and advise on improving data collection, compilation and dissemination.
- National accounts compilers must have access to detailed CPI prices and indices to improve GDP estimates.
- Previous CPI series (April–June 2009) for January 2015 onwards needs to be combined with new series at all COICOP levels (i.e., 1 to 8 digit) and adjusted to 2015=100 for national accounts use.
- GBS redeveloping building inputs price indices (BPI):
  - BPI is a retail price index based on sale prices reported by hardware stores.
  - RSA recommended collecting monthly producer prices covering mining, manufacturing and utilities, and prices paid by hardware stores for imported building materials to produce quarterly BPI and PPI by June 2018.
- GBS planning to develop XPI and MPI using unit-value data and smoothing techniques for main trading partner countries; these also need to be compiled by June 2018.

### Methodology for Compiling GDP by Economic Activity (overview)
- Annual GDP by economic activity methodology reviewed; currently broadly consistent with 1993 SNA and compiled using ISIC Rev. 3 for 2007 onward.
- Considerable scope for improvement, including:
  - Rebase GDP-P estimates to 2015 base year to compile constant price value (KPV) estimates using contemporary industry cost structures.
  - Discontinue fixed IC to output (I/O) ratios for CPV estimates where used.
  - Develop composite weighted IC price indices using weights based on 2015 SUT and select at least 5–6 price indices (e.g., adjusted CPI or other price indices) to reflate KPV IC to derive CPV IC or deflate CPV estimates to derive KPV estimates.
  - Transition from ISIC Rev. 3 to ISIC Rev. 4.
  - Increase level of detail for services industry estimates while ensuring at least two-digit ISIC Rev. 4 compilation.
  - Use benchmark-indicator approach to extrapolate base year BM estimates using partial data as value and volume indicators rather than adjusting partial data with fixed ratios.
  - Convert businesses’ financial year data to calendar year using subannual indicators and benchmarking.
  - Introduce 2008 SNA work-in-progress (WIP) methodology for construction in the 2015 GDP series and for agriculture crops and livestock in the medium term.
  - Improve coverage of informal sector activities; production for own consumption of non-agriculture produce; and illegal activities (where feasible).
  - Use more disaggregated commodity flow approach for construction and wholesale and retail trade.
  - Revise wholesale to retail trade margins applied in construction and trade worksheets.
  - Implement 2008 SNA methodology for calculating FISIM and improve its allocation by industry and expenditure component.
  - Split out non-profit institutions production by economic activity.
  - Volume extrapolation of deflated imports and outputs at a more detailed level to derive taxes on products in constant prices.
- Quarterly GDP-P estimates:
  - Subject to additional budget and staffing, quarterly GDP-P estimates can be compiled in both current and constant 2015 prices over the medium-term.
  - Most industries can be compiled using single value or volume indicators benchmarked to annual output and IC estimates using Excel Proportional Denton Method Benchmarking software.
  - Resulting estimates can be deflated or reflated using relevant CPI or other price indices and benchmarked to derive equivalent KPV or CPV estimates.
- Integrated compilation system recommended so annual and quarterly GDP-P estimates use the same input data files (e.g., 2015 = 100 price indices from CPI, PPI, XPI, MPI, BPI; current price indicators; population, employment and other volume indicators).
  - Quarterly indicators benchmarked to comprehensive annual estimates.
  - Where subannual indicator and price data are used for annual estimates, compile quarterly estimates first and sum to annual estimates.

### ISIC A - Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (key findings and recommendations)
- Agriculture and forestry accounted for 5.6 percent of GDP in 2015.
- Growing of crops:
  - Agriculture Department provides annual area cultivated, production quantities and average basic farm gate (and producer) prices for 20 crop types.
  - CPV output: average basic price × production quantity for each crop and aggregated.
  - KPV output: average basic price for 2007 × production quantities for each crop and aggregated.
  - CPV IC estimated using value of imports of agricultural inputs; GVA derived as residual.
  - BM I/O ratio for 2007 of 25 percent used to derive KPV IC and GVA.
  - Suggested improvements:
    - Use value and volume estimates as indicators to extrapolate 2015 SUT BM estimates.
    - Request monthly or quarterly quantity and price data to calculate monthly or quarterly values and aggregate for annual estimates.
    - Add coverage adjustment for backyard production for own consumption using 2015 SUT/HBS data.
    - Use household formation rates for extrapolation; adjust production for post-harvest loss and include subsistence production.
    - Add coverage adjustment for other small crop types based on 2015 SUT.
    - Use 2015 SUT values for each IC component divided by total hectares to calculate 2015 KPV of IC per hectare, multiply by hectares cultivated to estimate KPV IC.
    - Update 2015 value of IC components using price indices to compile CPV IC or continue to use value of imports as a value indicator to extrapolate BM estimate.
    - In longer-term, use WIP approach to compile separate quarterly IC and output estimates at current and constant prices for seasonal crops, with GVA as residual.
- Raising of livestock:
  - Separate data on animals slaughtered (cattle, goats, sheep and pigs) and production data for poultry, eggs and milk obtained from Agriculture Department, along with CPI price movement of meat to compile CPV and KPV output.
  - Fixed BM I/O ratio of 50 percent used to compile CPV and KPV IC and GVA.
  - GBS needs to collect quarterly livestock production data from Livestock Division and use separate I/O ratios by animal type provided during mission:
    - cattle 75 percent,
    - sheep and goats 44 percent,
    - pigs 80 percent,
    - poultry and eggs—chicken and ducks—50 percent.
  - Continue 50 percent I/O ratio for rabbits, horses and donkeys.
  - Increase coverage for animals slaughtered on farm by:
    - further 50 percent for goats and sheep, and
    - 25 percent of chicken.
  - Improve coverage for honey production, chicken manure, ducks, rabbits and equines.
  - Request abattoir quarterly data on average live carcass weight and price paid to farmers by animal type.
  - Use value and volume estimates as indicators to extrapolate 2015 SUT BM estimates; cross-check output using average consumption per capita from Livestock Division.
  - Annual KPV output, IC and GVA would be sum of quarterly KPV estimates; same for CPV output with quarterly CPV output benchmarked to annual CPV IC to derive quarterly CPV IC and GVA as residual.
  - Medium-term recommendation: use WIP approach to compile separate quarterly IC and output estimates at current and constant prices; implement PIM to improve output estimates including growth in live animals and slaughter, and estimating GFCF of breeding animals.
    - Requires data on livestock inventories, birth and death rates (from Livestock Division), and imports of breeding and other animals.
- Hunting and trapping:
  - No current estimates compiled.
  - Investigate value for inclusion in 2015 SUT and rebased GDP.
  - Main sources: HBS data on household consumption and exports data on live wild animals; 2012 Census may identify hunting households.
- Agriculture support services mainly provided by Government and not significant.
- Forestry:
  - Production data cover logging of poles and round logs; traditional charcoal production and firewood gathering provided by Forestry Department, along with export prices for logs and fixed I/O ratio of 25 percent used for annual CPV and KPV estimates.
  - Recommendation: compile estimates for each of three products separately using benchmark-indicator approach as I/O ratios differ.
  - National accounts compiler should contact Forestry Department for best ratio estimates for 2015 SUT and collect prices data for charcoal and firewood.
  - Include own account gathering of firewood and poles by rural households using HBS data or Forestry Department under coverage adjustment ratios.
  - Request quarterly data; imported charcoal prices could be used as proxy to construct price index to reflate KPV to CPV.
- Fishing:
  - GBS receives annual total landed fish and shrimp catch quantities from Fisheries Department and uses annual average CPI price for fresh fish and global shrimp price to compile CPV and KPV output.
  - BM I/O ratio of 50 percent used to derive CPV and KPV IC and GVA.
  - Fishing accounted for 4.8 percent of GDP in 2015; estimates need more disaggregation.
  - GBS should work with Fisheries Department to:
    - improve value and volume information by fish species,
    - update cost structure information annually,
    - discontinue use of fixed I/O ratios for CPV estimates (replace 50 percent I/O ratio with 40 percent estimated by Fisheries Department).
  - Coverage improvements needed to include sale of fish bladders (Department to provide estimated value) and subsistence fishing using HBS data.
  - Fish output should be estimated by species for main fish types.
  - Collect monthly or quarterly volume data from Department and apply monthly/quarterly average prices (using CPI prices for fish and shrimp adjusted to remove margins and taxes) to derive values that fluctuate through the year to improve annual estimates and produce quarterly estimates.
  - Quarterly volume indicators to extrapolate base year value of output to derive quarterly KPV estimates; annual estimate is sum of quarterly estimates.
  - Annual KPV output estimates reflated using weighted prices to derive annual CPV estimates; quarterly value indicators benchmarked to annual estimates to derive quarterly CPV estimates.

### ISIC B - Mining and Quarrying (key findings)
- ANAS data used to compile CPV estimates for bauxite, crude oil and gold extraction and exploration activities.
- Company annual reports used to ensure output, IC and GVA correctly split between mining and manufacturing activities.
- Weighted volume data and 2007 BM I/O ratio used to derive KPV estimates.
- For gold extraction, volume of pre-sifted earth is used as a volume indicator.
  - Recommendation: better to use actual gold production quantities from gold manufacturing because the amount of gold extracted per ton of earth is variable.

*IMF staff report: cr17187 - 30. Non-response estimation should be based on the growth and movements for*

### 17. Separate I/O ratios for each sub-industry based on the 2015 SUT should be

### 17. Separate I/O ratios for each sub-industry based on the 2015 SUT should be

### Mining and mineral products; exploration and gold
- Use separate I/O ratios for each sub-industry based on the 2015 SUT.
- ANAS excludes production of small gold producers; use quantity of gold exports, adjusted for gold for domestic use, as the volume indicator — to be discussed with CBS staff.
- The value of own account exploration needs to be separately calculated and added to GFCF.
- Output, IC and GVA relating to mining exploration by informal operators and petroleum exploration offshore by the 8-9 operators identified by the CBS (not covered in the ANAS) need to be added to production and GFCF estimates.

### Quarrying (sand, gravel, stone)
- CPV estimates based on ANAS data but response rate is poor and much activity is informal.
- Better to estimate sand, gravel and stone quantities using construction industry average ratios from the study being done to weight the BPI.
  - Ratios generally: four parts sand to one-part cement and two parts gravel to one-part cement.
- Consider collecting purchase prices for sand, gravel and stone from hardware stores to construct price indices.

### ISIC C — Manufacturing: scope, methods, and coverage improvements
- Manufacturing activities include: alumina, processed gold, refined petroleum products, processed shrimps, rice, and other manufacturing.
- CPV estimates based on ANAS data.
- KPV output estimates (except for other manufacturing) derived by extrapolating the 2007 BM estimate using quantities of production.
- For other manufacturing a volume index based on quantities imported raw materials is used.
- Recommendation: use LFS employment data for these industries.
- 2007 I/O ratios are used to derive KPV IC and GVA estimates.
- Manufacturing accounted for 9.7 percent of GDP in 2015.
  - More resources needed for estimates and explicit measurable coverage of meat processing, non-metallic products and fabricated metal products.
- For the 2015 SUT and ISIC Rev. 4 series, produce separate benchmark-indicator estimates for 20 industries (listed in source).
- Coverage improvements needed to include informal sector and production for own use (e.g., fabricated metals, furniture).
- Publishing activities to be reclassified to communication and information services.

### Specific manufacturing adjustments and price/quantity guidance
- Add hides and skins output (secondary output of meat manufacturing).
- Reduce paddy volume data proxy for rice to 82 percent (rice/paddy ratio).
- Estimate animal feed produced based on the 18 percent residual.
- Adjust shrimp quantities using Fisheries Department data to remove domestic consumption of fresh shrimp.
- In absence of appropriate prices use export price of the producers or CPI prices for rice and shrimp adjusted to remove margins and taxes.
- Currently, rice and shrimp industries are overestimated.
- Refined petroleum products manufacturing needs to be split into four component products and estimated separately; KPV should use product quantities due to considerable composition changes.
- Medium-term: benchmark quarterly value indicator from the QNAS to annual CPV estimates based on improved ANAS.

### Prices, deflators, and PPI development
- Development of the PPI recommended.
- Interim: use more detailed level CPI for deflation/reflation.
  - Examples: CPI for jams/jellies for preserved fruit and vegetables; CPI for bakery products for bakeries; CPI for soft drinks; CPI for alcoholic beverages; CPI for wearing apparel; CPI textbooks for printing; CPI cement for concrete products; CPI for wood furniture.
- Collect more detailed level volume indicators to compile KPV estimates where price data lacking.
- Quarterly estimates should match annual compilation detail where possible.
- If quarterly volume indicator unavailable, use QNAS as value indicator to extrapolate BM estimates and derive quarterly CPV; use relevant CPI to deflate CPV to derive annual KPV.

### Data gap strategies for missing recent data
- If delays in latest volume/value data, alternative data options to estimate latest month’s missing output:
  - Imported volume of flour + adjusted CPI for bakeries for bakery products.
  - Imports of malt/other ingredients + relevant adjusted CPI for alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages.
  - Imports of textiles + adjusted clothing CPI for wearing apparel.
  - Imports of paper + CPI textbooks for printing.
  - LFS employment data by industry for KPV reflated using relevant proxy CPI.

### ISIC D — Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Supply
- CPV output, IC and GVA from ANAS financial data; kilowatt hours generated/distributed used for annual KPV output.
- GVA estimates include generating company and electricity distributor.
- Need to calculate IC for generating companies separately and deduct from their output to derive GVA.
- Industry IC = industry output less GVA of the generator and the distributor.
- Quarterly KPV: use quarterly kilowatt hours distributed benchmarked to annual KPV; reflate with distributor quarterly prices or CPI for electricity to derive quarterly CPV (if QNAS value data not available).

### ISIC E — Water Supply, Sewerage and Waste Management
- Water supply annual CPV from ANAS; annual KPV derived using fixed I/O ratios and quantities of water supplied.
- Sewerage and waste collection estimates are not produced; should be estimated separately.
- Include household water collection in interior/rural areas using HBS and 2012 Census to identify households; value output/GVA via labor input or water pricing approaches.
  - No IC unless water pumps are used.
- Need quarterly financial data for CPV and volume data on water distributed through QNAS to extrapolate BM and compile quarterly KPV output, IC and GVA; annual estimates equal sum of quarterly.
- Number of consumers billed for sewerage can be used as the volume indicator.
- Include private industrial and solid waste management and recovery companies in ISIC Rev. 4 estimates; use ANAS plus value and volume of exports of scrap metals and recovered materials.

### ISIC F — Construction: commodity flow, margins, and BPI rebasing
- CPV compiled using high-level construction material inputs commodity flow approach.
  - Includes all imports of relevant product codes using Customs value data: product cost and freight plus import duties rates of 6 percent less 9 percent of paint imports (based on company report for ICP) plus domestic output of poles and wood products plus trade margins (3 percent) and 12 percent for services inputs (based on company report for ICP).
- Taxes data do not reflect exemptions or actual tax revenue collected.
- Effective margins and tax rates need derivation from the 2015 SUT.
- Poles used for scaffolding should be in GFCF rather than IC.
- Inputs make up total IC.
- A 40-percent-GVA-to-60-percent-IC ratio is used to derive GVA.
- Total BPI used as deflator to derive KPV; absence of BPI for most recent years led to general CPI used for 2011 onwards — better to use CPI for building repairs and maintenance.
- Trade margin of 3 percent is low and needs review.
- Add local production of gravel, sand, stone, concrete products, fabricated metal products, and wood products.
- Deduct building material imports used in domestic production of paints, ready mix cement, concrete, wood and fabricated metal products, and for wood and metals used for furniture manufacturing — base on extrapolating 2015 BM estimates using CPV and KPV IC for those industries.
- Use SUT data to split GVA into labor costs, consumption of fixed capital (CFC), other taxes less subsidies on production and net operating surplus.
- GBS undertaking construction industry study to rebase the BPI with industry consultant and Department of Public Works; projects selected should include residential dwellings, other buildings and civil works.
- Commodity flow estimates need compilation at more detailed level; RSA provided methodology and worksheet template for quarterly CPV and KPV construction estimates and related repairs and maintenance and GFCF.
  - Group CPV construction materials/services to align with product-level BPI (e.g., sand, gravel, timber, plywood, paint, PVC pipes, cement, steel bars, iron sheets, nails, equipment repairs, equipment hire, fuel, labor).
  - For goods/services not covered by BPI, use composite price index of non-food goods CPI and services CPI.
  - Apply profit margin to aggregated COE and IC to derive remainder of CPV and KPV GVA.
  - Same methodology for quarterly estimates; annual equals sum of quarters.

### ISIC G — Motor Vehicle Sales and Repairs, Wholesale and Retail Trade
- Annual CPV output for wholesale and retail compiled from ANAS but response rates poor and double-counting exists (farmers selling at markets).
- CPV deflated using price index derived from deflating subset of imports by equivalent group-level CPI for four CPI groups: food and non-alcoholic beverages; alcohol and tobacco; clothing and footwear; household furnishings.
- Due to partial coverage and high-level CPI used, real growth rates likely inaccurate.
- Fixed I/O ratio applied to output to derive IC and GVA.
- Need to separate motor vehicle sales and repairs from other wholesale and retail trade in line with ISIC Rev. 4, though separation may be infeasible as wholesalers often retail and some retailers sell in bulk.
- Recommendation: implement commodity flow approach to compile quarterly and annual estimates at disaggregated product group level.
  - Adjust CPV/KPV output estimates for crops, livestock, forestry, fishing, mining and quarrying, and manufacturing to remove non-traded component (own consumption/delivered directly by producer) and use to extrapolate 2015 BM estimate of output sold through traders to derive current and constant price value indicators.
  - Add non-refundable product taxes.
  - Add CPV of traded imports adjusted to remove imports by end users directly, with excise, import duties and other non-refundable taxes added.
  - Group traded imported goods into categories corresponding to equivalent proxy CPI and deflate to derive KPV estimates until MPI available.
  - Apply different margin rates by broad product group derived from 2015 SUT.
  - Add domestic and imported components to extrapolate BM gross trade margins and derive quarterly and annual CPV and KPV gross margin estimates.
  - Use ANAS to derive/apply I/O ratios to derive CPV IC and GVA; use base period 2015 I/O ratio for KPV IC and GVA.

### Motor vehicles and repairs specifics
- Sales of motor vehicles and motorcycles currently under general wholesale and retail; to be separated in ISIC Rev. 4.
- Compiler can use CPI for purchases of vehicles to deflate quarterly CPV estimates (ANAS or imports adjusted for taxes and margins) to derive KPV; annual = sum of quarters.
- Vehicle maintenance and repairs:
  - Mainly by car dealers under warranty; by informal mechanics after warranty.
  - Use volume extrapolation via stock of registered vehicles for KPV; CPI for vehicle repairs and maintenance for CPV.

### ISIC H — Transport and Storage: passenger, freight, air, water, support services
- Road passenger transport CPV from ANAS; CPI for bus fares used to derive KPV.
- 2007 I/O ratio used for CPV and KPV IC and GVA due to inadequate ANAS response rates.
- Compile separate estimates for buses, taxis and freight transport.
  - Use bus, taxi and freight vehicle registration/license numbers as volume indicators to extrapolate 2015 benchmark estimates.
  - Option: use non-fuel cargo volumes for exports/imports from Airport and Port Authority as volume indicator for freight.
- Use CPI for buses, CPI transport services and CPI transport to reflate KPV to derive CPV if ANAS/QNAS not adequate.
- No water transport estimates produced; ferry between Suriname and Guyana exists but residency of operator unknown — residency needs investigation.
  - Check 2012 Census for coastal/river boat/taxi operators.
  - KPV for water transport can be compiled by extrapolating 2015 SUT using passenger movements and cargo volumes; use transport CPI for reflation to derive CPV.
- Domestic airlines and local branches of non-resident airlines CPV compiled using ANAS.
  - Use total air passenger kilometers flown as volume indicator to derive KPV.
  - BM I/O ratio used to derive KPV IC and GVA.
  - Prefer domestic air fares or actual passenger numbers carried by resident airlines.
  - For branch operations, treatment should be consistent with balance of payments — discuss with CBS; resident departures on non-resident carriers preferred volume indicator.
  - Same methodology and QNAS can be used for quarterly estimates.
- Transport support services:
  - ANAS value and employment/wages and 2007 I/O ratio used for CPV and KPV; considerable scope to improve.
  - For Airport/air transport support: use weighted volume indicator of air cargo volumes, aircraft movements and passenger arrivals/departures to extrapolate 2015 estimate for KPV.
  - For Ports: use weighted indicator of cargo volumes exported/imported, ship movements and arrivals/departures.
  - Same approach for quarterly estimates using QNAS.
- Freight forwarders and agents: CPV from ANAS and QNAS; cargo volumes as KPV indicator.
- Tour operators and travel agents to be reclassified to Division 79 for ISIC Rev. 4.
  - KPV for tour operators: stay-over tourist numbers as volume indicator.
  - KPV for travel agents: resident departures preferred.
  - If survey data inadequate, reflate KPV using services CPI to derive CPV.
- Quarterly estimates: use same volume indicators to compile quarterly KPV; proposed services CPI to reflate quarterly KPV to value indicators and benchmark to annual CPV.
  - Quarterly CPV IC: use quarterly CPV output benchmarked to annual CPV IC to derive quarterly IC; quarterly CPV GVA derived as residual.

### Postal and courier services
- ANAS value and employment data used to compile CPV and KPV for postal services using sum of costs approach; QNAS can compile quarterly estimates.
- Courier services: ANAS value and employment used for CPV and KPV; ANAS response rates low — Director-level intervention may be required to improve compliance.
- QNAS data can be used as quarterly value indicator benchmarked to annual CPV to derive quarterly CPV.
- Better to use transport CPI to deflate CPV to derive quarterly KPV.

*Source: cr17187 - 17. Separate I/O ratios for each sub-industry based on the 2015 SUT should be*

### 43. The CPV output estimates for hotels and restaurants are based on ANAS

### 43. The CPV output estimates for hotels and restaurants are based on ANAS

### Hotels and Restaurants: overall methodology and recommendations
- CPV output estimates for hotels and restaurants are based on ANAS data; KPV output estimates are derived using stay-over tourist arrivals as a volume indicator.
- The 2007 I/O ratio is used to derive CPV and KPV IC and GVA estimates.
- Compilation should be separated for:
  - accommodation services (hotels, resorts, guest houses, camping grounds, and other short-term accommodation), and
  - food and beverage catering services (restaurants, cafes, canteens, bars, and other establishments whose main income is derived from catered food and drinks).
- Given concerns about coverage and quality of ANAS, the demand side approach should be used to estimate production for these industries.
- Quarterly estimates can be derived and annual estimates obtained by summing quarterly estimates.

### Accommodation services (paras 44)
- Preferred approach:
  - Use immigration data processed by the Tourist Foundation on the annual or quarterly number of stayover tourists using hotels or other rented short-term accommodation by average length of stay as a volume indicator to extrapolate the 2015 SUT estimate of tourist expenditure and industry I/O ratio to derive the KPV estimates.
  - Extrapolate the 2015 SUT estimate of tourist expenditure using a value indicator based on the average expenditure on accommodation per night per tourist from the planned annual Visitor Exit Survey multiplied by the annual or quarterly number of stayover tourists using hotels or other rented short-term accommodation by average length of stay to derive the CPV output attributable to international tourists.
- Resident and business components:
  - Household expenditure: 2015 SUT benchmark extrapolated forward using number of households and the IPD for tourist spend.
  - Use business financial statements and Government accounts data to derive BM estimates.
- Use the annual ANAS I/O ratio applied to total CPV output to derive CPV IC and GVA ratios.

### Food and beverage catering services (paras 45)
- KPV estimates for services provided to international tourists:
  - Extrapolate relevant 2015 SUT estimate using the annual or quarterly number of stayover tourists by length of stay.
  - Extrapolate 2015 SUT tourist expenditure using a value indicator based on the average expenditure on catered food and drinks away from the accommodation per night per tourist multiplied by the annual or quarterly number of stayover tourists by average length of stay to derive CPV output attributable to international tourists.
- Resident expenditure component:
  - Use population growth rates to extrapolate the 2015 SUT benchmark to derive KPV estimates, then reflate using a composite price index to derive CPV estimates.
- Price index issue and solution:
  - The CPI for meals away from home does not include soft drinks or alcoholic beverages, and so does not fully represent restaurants or bars and taverns.
  - Use a weighted composite price index of the meals away from home CPI, non-alcoholic beverages CPI and alcoholic beverages CPI (using weights from the 2015 SUT).
- Coverage improvements needed:
  - Include expenditure by business and Government on hospitality.
  - Apply annual ANAS I/O ratio to total CPV output to derive CPV IC and GVA ratios.

### ISIC J - Information and Communication (paras 46–49)
- Telecommunications (para 46):
  - CPV and KPV estimates compiled using ANAS value and employment data.
  - For 2015, call minutes used as the volume indicator; continue for 2016 estimates.
  - BM I/O ratio used to derive KPV IC and GVA.
  - Recommended: estimate KPV output separately for fixed phones, mobile phones, Internet usage and cable TV using annual and quarterly volume data (fixed phone call minutes, mobile call minutes, Internet downloads, cable TV subscriptions) to extrapolate 2015 benchmark revenue.
  - Data should be requested from relevant companies and the Government regulator.
  - CPI for communications is inaccurate due to continuous change in technology and packages.
  - For quarterly estimates, use QNAS data to compile value and volume indicators benchmarked to annual aggregates to derive quarterly CPV and KPV estimates.
- Publishing activities (para 47):
  - Reclassify publishing activities from manufacturing to communication and information services.
  - CPV estimates based on ANAS value and employment data.
  - For KPV, use CPI for newspapers to deflate rather than employment data extrapolation of BM.
- Audio-visual production, broadcasting and programming (para 48):
  - Use ANAS and QNAS value data and LFS employment data as value and volume indicators to compile CPV and KPV estimates.
  - Collect data on advertising slot rates and take-up rates for better CPV output and a representative price index.
  - Use LFS employment data and the services CPI for remainder.
- Computer and related activities (para 49):
  - Use ANAS and QNAS value data and LFS employment as indicators.
  - If response rates inadequate, compile annual and quarterly KPV estimates using LFS employment as a volume indicator and services CPI to reflate KPV to CPV.

### ISIC K - Financial and Insurance Activities (paras 50–57)
- Banking and FISIM (paras 50–55):
  - Combined CBS and commercial banks data used to compile CPV estimates.
  - Imputed bank services charges method (interest receivable less interest payable) used as a proxy for estimating FISIM.
  - KPV FISIM estimates derived by extrapolating benchmarks using deflated loans and deposits of commercial banks deflated using the general CPI.
  - Add explicit fees and charges and other operating income CPV and KPV (deflated using general CPI) to compile total CPV and KPV output.
  - CPV IC and GVA based on CBS data; KPV IC and GVA derived by extrapolating BM using KPV output movement.
  - CBS should provide separate data for itself and commercial banks on profit and loss; deposits, loans and advances; and interest payable and receivable by industry/businesses, households, Government and non-residents.
  - Improve coverage and collect deposits and loans data for non-bank financial institutions (credit unions, cooperatives).
  - Government accounts show CBS pays a sizable annual dividend to Government; if operating income exceeds costs, the sum of costs approach may not be appropriate. Short-term fix: increase CBS output and GVA by the amount of the dividend (sum of costs plus dividend) until CBS provides required data.
  - RSA provided training on calculating and allocating FISIM, including imports of FISIM.
  - 2008 SNA: use a general measure of inflation to deflate deposits and loans; general CPI appropriate.
  - Quarterly compilation methodology (paras 53–54):
    - Derive a proxy SNA interest rate using the mid-point of interest rates on deposits and loans.
    - Apply SNA rate to average of opening and closing stocks of deposits for the quarter to derive pure interest payable; deduct actual interest payable to derive FISIM on deposits.
    - Apply SNA rate to average of opening and closing stocks of loans and advances for the quarter to derive pure interest receivable; deduct from actual interest receivable to derive FISIM on loans and advances.
    - Extrapolate 2015 BM of FISIM on deposits and FISIM on loans and advances using deflated value of deposits and loans and advances using general CPI to derive KPV FISIM estimates.
    - Add other CPV operating income to CPV FISIM to derive CPV output estimates.
    - Use general or proposed services CPI to deflate other operating income depending on type to derive KPV of other operating income.
    - Compile CPV IC estimates from source data and use a composite IC price index to derive KPV IC; CPV and KPV GVA derived as residuals.
  - Allocation of FISIM (para 55):
    - FISIM allocated by industry, Government and households.
    - Business FISIM on deposits is not allocated by industry and some FISIM on deposits and loans is attributable to NPISHs and non-residents and needs reallocating.
    - Use industry output as a proxy to allocate business FISIM on deposits.
    - FISIM on mortgages should be added to real estate IC.
    - FISIM for Government and NPISHs is added to IC and output in public administration and other relevant workbooks as Government and NPISH final consumption expenditure is calculated using output adjusted for sales.
    - FISIM attributable to non-residents and to households for deposits and non-mortgage loans to be allocated to exports of services and household final consumption expenditure respectively.
- Other financial services (para 56):
  - CPV estimates should be based on ANAS and QNAS data; KPV estimates derived using LFS employment and the 2015 I/O ratio.
  - Improve coverage of pension and other fund managers, financial brokers, foreign exchange dealers and remittance companies; CBS and Foreign Exchange Commission should provide data if not covered by GBS surveys.
- Insurance (para 57):
  - CPV output for insurance companies estimated using ANAS data on net premiums (adjusted for net reinsurance premiums) plus investment income less adjusted claims for insurance.
  - Separate life and non-life insurance and follow 2008 SNA recommendations.
  - Reinsurance premiums paid and claims received need separation and treatment consistent with the balance of payments.
  - KPV output estimates derived using a volume indicator (deflating net premiums by the general CPI).
  - A fixed I/O ratio used to compile KPV IC and GVA; alternative volume indicators suggested: stock of registered motor vehicles, dwellings and deflated value of life insurance policies.
  - Commission fees paid by insurance companies to local agents are included in output and GVA; a portion (estimate even if only 10-15 percent) is IC and needs estimation.
  - Use services CPI as a deflator or LFS employment as a volume indicator to derive KPV estimates.

### ISIC L - Real Estate Activities (paras 58–59)
- Owner-occupied dwellings:
  - KPV estimates derived by extrapolating the 2007 BM estimate using the 2004 and 2012 Census data on number of dwellings extrapolated forward using building permits data.
  - The 2000 HBS average estimate of imputed rents per dwelling is price adjusted using the general CPI to derive CPV estimates.
- Rented dwellings:
  - KPV methodology based on Census numbers extrapolated forward using household formation rates; ensure consistency of volume indicators.
- Real estate agents and property managers:
  - CPV and KPV estimates derived using ANAS value and average wages data.
- Methodology improvements:
  - Use actual rents CPI, redevelop volume indicators, and add estimates for rental of commercial property (currently not covered).
  - Check and update stock of owner-occupied and rented dwellings for all years from 2012 Census data.
  - Use adjusted electricity connections to consistently extrapolate owner-occupied and rented dwellings; LFS data can adjust owner-occupied vs rented ratio annually.
  - Estimated value of commercial rentals in 2015 will be derived in the SUT.
  - Use electricity connections for commercial and industrial properties as a volume indicator to extrapolate BM to derive KPV.
  - Use actual rents CPI as proxy to reflate KPV to CPV; use partial ANAS data to update annual I/O ratio to derive IC and GVA.

### ISIC M - Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities (paras 60–61)
- Use ANAS value and employment data to compile CPV and KPV estimates for business services; BM I/O ratios used to derive CPV and KPV IC and GVA estimates.
- Reclassify veterinarian and photographic services here in ISIC Rev. 4.
- For accounting, auditing, legal and other professional services:
  - Use ANAS and QNAS value and employment data to compile annual and quarterly CPV output, IC and GVA, and KPV output estimates.
  - BM I/O ratios used to derive annual and quarterly KPV IC and GVA.
  - ANAS data used to update annual CPV I/O ratios to derive annual CPV IC and GVA; quarterly CPV output benchmarked to annual CPV IC to derive quarterly CPV IC and GVA.
  - If ANAS and QNAS inadequate, use LFS employment with fixed I/O ratios to derive KPV; use adjusted services CPI to reflate KPV to derive value indicator benchmarked to annual CPV output and IC for quarterly estimates.

### ISIC N - Administrative and Support Service Activities (paras 62–66)
- Use ANAS value and employment data to compile CPV and KPV estimates; BM I/O ratios used to derive CPV and KPV IC and GVA.
- Reclassify tour operators and travel agents from land transport to ISIC Rev. 4 under this industry.
- For rental of durable goods, machinery and equipment; security services; and other business services:
  - Use ANAS and QNAS value and employment data for annual and quarterly CPV output, IC and GVA, and KPV output estimates, with BM I/O ratios for KPV IC and GVA.
  - If ANAS and QNAS inadequate, use LFS employment with fixed I/O ratios to derive KPV and adjusted services CPI to reflate to CPV benchmarks.
- Travel agents (para 64):
  - Provide services mainly to residents; using tourist arrivals is inappropriate.
  - Use resident departures for travel agents (they sell tickets to residents) or, if not available, use employment data.
  - CPV output deflated to derive KPV and BM I/O ratio used to derive KPV IC and GVA.
- Rentals of vehicles (para 65):
  - Include main companies in ANAS and QNAS; use survey data for annual and quarterly CPV estimates.
  - Deflate using adjusted land transport CPI and a composite IC price index to derive KPV estimates.
  - Registration of rental vehicles could be used as a KPV volume indicator.
- Licensing of intangible assets (para 65):
  - Use data on number of patents and copyrights and royalty payments as volume and value indicators benchmarked to 2015 estimates for annual and quarterly estimates.
- Other administrative and support activities (para 66):
  - Use ANAS for larger units to derive annual and quarterly CPV; use LFS employment as volume indicator for quarterly KPV.
  - For informal units, use LFS employment data and adjusted services CPI and composite IC price index to extrapolate BM to produce annual and quarterly CPV and KPV estimates.

### ISIC O - Public Administration; Compulsory Social Security Activities (paras 67–68)
- Government CPV compilation:
  - CPV estimates by function compiled using COFOG and Government accounts data from hard copy publications for each department/agency.
  - Data on COE used for GVA; no estimate made for consumption of fixed capital (CFC) to add to GVA.
  - A weighted wage index used to deflate CPV GVA to compile KPV GVA estimates.
  - Same methodology used for public education, health and social work.
  - Need to develop a PIM to compile CFC and produce separate output and IC by economic activity for General Government sector.
- Compilation workbook improvements (para 68):
  - Redevelop workbook to include detailed annual and quarterly CPV estimates of Government output, IC, GVA and Government final consumption expenditure by COFOG, then aggregate to ISIC Rev. 4 industries (public administration, public education, public health and social work) based on quarterly and annual Government accounts data.
  - Derive KPV estimates separately for COE and IC components, including FISIM.
  - Use weighted wage index to extrapolate BM COE estimates to derive KPV COE estimates.
  - Aggregate detailed Government accounts expenses on other goods and services into broad expenditure groups and use best proxy adjusted CPI (i.e., 2015 = 100) to deflate and derive KPV estimates.

*Source: cr17187 - 43. The CPV output estimates for hotels and restaurants are based on ANAS*

### 69. The relevant prices indices could be used to deflate CPV estimates. For

### 69. The relevant prices indices could be used to deflate CPV estimates. For

### Use of price indices to deflate CPV estimates
- Relevant indices recommended:
  - electricity charges CPI for electricity
  - CPI water charges for water use
  - supplies and materials (goods CPI)
  - communications (CPI for communications)
  - buildings and roads repairs and maintenance (construction industry implicit price deflator (IPD))
  - vehicle maintenance and repairs (CPI for vehicle repairs and maintenance)
  - actual rents CPI for rental of assets (as this is mainly rental of office space)
  - insurance CPI for insurance
  - land transport CPI for local travel
  - air transport CPI for international travel
  - CPI education for training
  - restaurants IPD for hosting and entertainment
  - a services CPI for professional and other services
  - goods CPI for other/sundry expenses
- Deflators should be discussed with the MOF before use.
- Method to derive CPV and KPV for GFCE:
  - Deduct Government sales revenue from Government output estimates at the function/industry level.
  - Use the IPD for Government output to deflate Government sales to derive the KPV sales estimates.
  - Same methodology applies to annual and quarterly estimates.

### ISIC P - Education: CPV/KPV methodologies and improvements
- Current base:
  - CPV and KPV for non-government private education based on the ANAS value and employment/average wages data.
  - For 2013 onwards, LFS employment movement and CPI for education used due to low ANAS response rates.
  - BM I/O ratio used to derive CPV and KPV IC and GVA estimates.
- Recommended improvements:
  - Produce quarterly estimates, improved to provide output, IC and GVA estimates by level of education.
  - Update CPV I/O ratio annually.
  - Redesign ANAS and QNAS samples.
  - Possible additional data sources: Universities’ websites and student visa data.
  - Improve volume indicator using student enrolments data by level for annual and quarterly KPV estimates.
  - Use adjusted CPI for pre-primary and primary, secondary and tertiary education to reflate quarterly KPV output estimates to derive a value indicator and benchmark to annual CPV output and IC estimates; derive GVA as a residual.
  - Improve coverage to include private tutoring, adult and other education using the 2015 SUT benchmark data.
- Public education:
  - To align with ISIC Rev. 4, public education should be included under education.
  - Annual CPV estimates for public education compiled using same approach as public administration.
  - Apply same improvements and compile quarterly estimates using improved methodology.

### ISIC Q - Human Health and Social Work Activities: CPV/KPV methodologies and improvements
- Current base:
  - ANAS value and employment data used as value and volume indicators for CPV and KPV; for 2014 onwards LFS employment movement and general CPI used due to low ANAS response rates.
  - BM I/O ratio applied; recommendation to use medical services CPI rather than general CPI.
  - Coverage needs improvement to include ambulance services and traditional healers/mid wives.
- Disaggregation and methods:
  - Compile separate estimates for hospital services, doctors, dentists, laboratories/paramedical services and traditional healers/midwives.
  - Hospital services:
    - Use ANAS data for annual CPV.
    - Deflate CPV output using adjusted CPI for hospital services to derive KPV output.
    - Use fixed BM I/O ratio to derive KPV IC and GVA.
  - Doctors, dentists, paramedical services:
    - Use ANAS for annual CPV.
    - Deflate CPV output using adjusted CPI for doctors, dental and paramedical services to derive KPV outputs.
    - Use BM I/O ratios for KPV IC and GVA.
  - If ANAS inadequate:
    - Use LFS employment data by sub-industry to derive KPV estimates first, then reflate relevant CPI to derive CPV estimates.
- Quarterly compilation:
  - Compile quarterly KPV using QNAS and LFS employment data benchmarked to annual KPV.
  - Use QNAS value or LFS income data (or same CPI) to produce quarterly value indicator benchmarked to annual CPV.
  - Use a composite IC price index to reflate KPV IC to derive value indicator to benchmark to annual CPV IC and derive quarterly CPV IC and GVA estimates.
- Private social work:
  - Separate estimates not currently compiled; coverage can be improved.
  - As most will be NPISHs, compile KPV using LFS employment as volume indicator.
  - Use adjusted CPI for social protection or hired care to reflate KPV output to derive CPV output if ANAS response rates inadequate.
- Public health and social work:
  - To align with ISIC Rev. 4, include public human health and social work here.
  - Annual CPV and KPV for public health and social work compiled using same approach as public administration.
  - Apply same improvements and compile quarterly estimates using improved methodology.

### ISIC R - Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
- Current base:
  - Industry currently included in other community, social and personal services.
  - ANAS value and employment used to compile KPV and CPV; for 2014 onwards LFS employment movement and general CPI used due to low ANAS response rates.
- Improvements and data needs:
  - Need to measure value of recreational/charter fishing and fishing competitions and add to industry.
  - Use ANAS as value indicator where possible to derive quarterly and annual CPV output estimates.
  - Redesigned ANAS should collect data to update annual CPV I/O ratios.
  - Where representative volume indicators not available (e.g., gym and sports club memberships), use LFS employment to extrapolate BM estimates for quarterly KPV output; use BM I/O ratios for KPV IC and GVA.
  - Where value data not available, reflate quarterly KPV output using representative adjusted CPI price indices (examples: CPI for cultural services, recreational services, gambling, gym memberships and sports CPI) to produce quarterly value indicators to benchmark to annual CPV output and IC estimates to compile quarterly CPV estimates.

### ISIC S - Other Service Activities
- Current base:
  - Industry currently included in other community, social and personal services.
  - ANAS value and employment used as volume and value indicators for KPV and CPV; for 2014 onwards LFS employment movement and general CPI used due to low ANAS response rates.
- Methodological improvements:
  - Compile estimates at the 2-digit ISIC level.
  - Use ANAS and QNAS as value indicators for quarterly and annual CPV where possible.
  - Redesigned ANAS to update annual CPV I/O ratios.
  - Where representative volume indicators not available, use LFS employment to extrapolate BM to compile annual and quarterly KPV output; use BM I/O ratios for KPV IC and GVA.
  - Where value data not available, reflate quarterly KPV output using representative adjusted CPI price indices to produce quarterly value indicators and benchmark to annual CPV output and IC to compile quarterly CPV estimates.
- Specific volume indicators and price indices for sub-activities:
  - Religious and other membership organizations: number of members (or population projections as fallback); use services CPI where value data absent.
  - Repairs of personal and household goods: use employment data; use repairs of personal and household goods CPI where value data absent.
  - Funeral services: use number of deaths as volume indicator; use funeral services CPI where value data absent.
  - Hair and beauty salons, laundry and dry-cleaning, other services: use population growth rates as volume indicators; use CPI for haircuts and personal care for hair and beauty salons.
  - Use composite IC price indices to calculate independent CPV IC estimates.

### ISIC T - Activities of Households as Employers
- Current base:
  - Implicitly included in other community, social and personal services.
  - ANAS value and employment used as volume and value indicators for KPV and CPV; for 2014 onwards LFS employment movement and general CPI used due to low ANAS response rates.
- Recommended approach:
  - Use LFS employment as volume indicator to extrapolate BM to derive KPV output and GVA estimates.
  - Reflate using domestic services CPI if available or the proposed services CPI.
  - No IC for this activity (costs are part of HFCE).
  - Apply same method for quarterly estimates.

### Taxes less Subsidies on Products
- Current compilation:
  - CPV estimates compiled from annual Government accounts data for taxes on products less subsidies for baby formula.
  - KPV estimates compiled using the GDP deflator.
  - RSA discussed methodology improvements with GBS staff.
- Recommended system changes:
  - Develop a new workbook with annual and quarterly product taxes and subsidies compiled at a disaggregated level to permit corresponding volume indicators for annual and quarterly KPV estimates.
  - For product sales taxes on manufactured goods, extrapolate BM using KPV output for relevant manufacturing industries.
  - For product taxes on services, use KPV output for respective services industries to extrapolate BM taxes.
  - Use general CPI to deflate stamp duties in absence of suitable volume indicators.
  - Use passenger arrivals and departures as volume indicators, as appropriate, for airport and passenger taxes.
  - Use equivalent deflated imports for import duties, import service charges and excise.
  - Use equivalent KPV output estimates for domestic excise tax.
- Subsidies:
  - Use volume of baby formula imported as volume indicator to extrapolate the 2015 benchmark value of the subsidy to derive KPV estimates for subsidies.
  - Note: There are more subsidies on products that need to be deducted where regular transfers by Government to public corporations are included in output and value added (example cited: the Post Office, where the sum of cost approach used to estimate output and GVA).
  - National accounts compilers must check for other public corporations and deduct the subsidies from total GVA of industries accordingly.

*cr17187 - 69. The relevant prices indices could be used to deflate CPV estimates. For*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2017/cr17187.pdf_