## cr17297 ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [cr17297](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2017/cr17297.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/cr/2017/cr17297.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/cr/2017/cr17297.pdf.json) --- ### Executive Summary — Mission background and objectives - Mission: Macroeconomic Statistics Advisor (MSA) at the East Africa Technical Assistance Center (AFE) technical assistance mission to Kampala during May 5–23, 2014 (activity 14STG38:06) to advise on finalizing 2009/10 supply and use tables (SUT) and compiling rebased annual (ANA) and quarterly national accounts (QNA) statistics for Uganda. - Project: National Accounts Statistics STA_UGA_2011_07. - Activities: training on SUT compilation and source data issues; development of additional worksheets for cross-product and cross-industry analysis. ### Institutional context, capacity and dissemination - Producer: UBOS responsible for NAS and dissemination via quarterly Key Economic Indicators, annual Statistical Abstract, government budget papers, and UBOS website. - Participation: IMF–DFID: Enhanced Data Dissemination Initiative (EDDI) QNA Statistics Module. - Timeliness: QNA released within three months after reference quarter (completed; QGDP constant price estimates released early October 2011); UBOS plans to improve timeliness to two months. - Staffing: NAS Unit increased from 8 to 10 statisticians (completed 11/21/2011); target to nominate staff for IMF and other NAS courses by 12/31/2014. - Resource constraints: budget limits delayed QA on UBI and UNHS and other data; recommendation to secure budget funding for a single external consultant to provide 40 weeks of TA for next GDP rebase (2015). ### Final 2009/10 SUT outputs - Structure: benchmark commodity flow and industry estimates; improved input/output (I/O) matrix for 161 activities by 161 products aligned with ISIC Revision 4. - New worksheets: separate estimates for General Government, NPISH, other formal sector units, informal monetary and non-monetary/subsistence units in GO and IC sheets. - FCE sheet: separate FCE for households (purchases, own produced and gifts/in-kind), General Government, and NPISH. - Adjustments: source data adjustments explicitly identified with explanations. ### Key statistical changes and comparison with published GDP (2009/10) - Revised GDP estimate in SUT: UGS 40,946 billion. - Published GDP estimate for 2009/10: UGS 34,908 billion. - Increase: around UGS 6.0 trillion or 17.3 percent higher than published estimate. - Comparison between the SUT and Published GDP Estimates (UGS billions; contributions preserved): - Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing: Revised GDP 10,732 Published GDP 8,245 New contribution to GDP 26.2% Previous contribution to GDP 23.6% - Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities and Construction: Revised GDP 7,424 Published GDP 8,675 New contribution to GDP 18.1% Previous contribution to GDP 24.9% - Services Industries: Revised GDP 19,861 Published GDP 15,888 New contribution to GDP 48.5% Previous contribution to GDP 45.5% - Adjustments (FISIM and Taxes of Products): Revised GDP 2,930 Published GDP 2,100 New contribution to GDP 7.2% Previous contribution to GDP 6.0% - GDP: Revised 40,946 Published 34,908 100.0% 100.0% ### Sources and quantified drivers of the GDP level increase - Principal reasons: - More comprehensive and higher-quality source data for 2009/10 SUT versus 2002 SUT benchmark. - Incorporation of significantly revised source data for a number of industries since November 2013 and methodological improvements. - Quantified impacts on GDP level: - Net impact of revised industry source data increased GDP level by around UGS 2.5 trillion or 7.1 percent. - Improved methodology for calculating trade and transport margins (TTMs) contributed a 2.2 percent increase in the GDP level. - Replacing imputed bank service charges with estimates of FISIM (allocated across industries and expenditure components) contributed a further 1.2 percent increase to the new GDP level. - Specific revised industry GVA increases since November 2013 (UGS): - Cash crops: +96 billion - Electricity supply: +167 billion - Water supply and sewerage: +141 billion - Real estate activities: +596 billion - Professional and administrative services: +584 billion - Public administration, education and health services: +892 billion - Improved coverage of General Government activities (including donor funded projects) increased GDP by expenditure measure by around 4.6 percent compared to preliminary SUT. ### Sectoral detail — Agriculture (UGS billions; contributions preserved) - Agriculture totals and components: - Cash Crops: Revised 784 ; Published 530 ; New contribution to GDP 1.9% ; Previous contribution to GDP 1.5% - Food Crops: Revised 5,917 ; Published 4,987 ; New contribution to GDP 14.5% ; Previous contribution to GDP 14.3% - Animal Production: Revised 1,857 ; Published 585 ; New contribution to GDP 4.5% ; Previous contribution to GDP 1.7% - Agriculture Support Services: Revised 12 ; Published - ; New contribution to GDP 0.0% ; Previous contribution to GDP 0.0% - Forestry: Revised 1,574 ; Published 1,270 ; New contribution to GDP 3.8% ; Previous contribution to GDP 3.6% - Fishing: Revised 587 ; Published 873 ; New contribution to GDP 1.4% ; Previous contribution to GDP 2.5% - Total Agriculture: Revised 10,732 ; Published 8,245 ; New contribution to GDP 26.2% ; Previous contribution to GDP 23.6% - Note: Revised Agriculture GVA is UGS 2.5 trillion or 30.2 percent higher than published, increasing sector share by 2.6 percent of GDP. ### Sectoral detail — Industry (UGS billions; contributions preserved) - Industry components: - Mining and Quarrying: Revised 464 ; Published 106 ; New contribution to GDP 1.1% ; Previous contribution to GDP 0.3% - Manufacturing: Revised 3,481 ; Published 2,675 ; New contribution to GDP 8.5% ; Previous contribution to GDP 7.7% - Electricity Supply: Revised 349 ; Published 486 ; New contribution to GDP 0.9% ; Previous contribution to GDP 1.4% - Water Supply & Sewerage: Revised 769 ; Published 82 ; New contribution to GDP 1.9% ; Previous contribution to GDP 2.8% - Construction: Revised 2,360 ; Published 4,427 ; New contribution to GDP 5.8% ; Previous contribution to GDP 12.7% - Total Industry: Revised 7,424 ; Published 8,675 ; New contribution to GDP 18.1% ; Previous contribution to GDP 24.9% - Note: Overall Industry GVA is UGS 1.3 trillion or 14.4 percent lower than published, sector share decreased by 6.7 percent of GDP—main declines in Electricity supply, Water supply and Construction; partly offset by increases in Mining and Manufacturing. ### Sectoral detail — Services (UGS billions; contributions preserved) - Selected service components: - Trade and Repairs: Revised 5,298 ; Published 4,229 ; New contribution to GDP 12.9% ; Previous contribution to GDP 12.1% - Transportation and Storage: Revised 1,069 ; Published 1,124 ; New contribution to GDP 2.6% ; Previous contribution to GDP 3.2% - Accommodation and Food Service Activities: Revised 934 ; Published 1,614 ; New contribution to GDP 2.3% ; Previous contribution to GDP 4.6% - Information and Communication: Revised 2,265 ; Published 1,116 ; New contribution to GDP 5.5% ; Previous contribution to GDP 3.2% - Financial and Insurance Activities: Revised 940 ; Published 1,064 ; New contribution to GDP 2.3% ; Previous contribution to GDP 3.0% - Real Estate Activities: Revised 2,194 ; Published 2,108 ; New contribution to GDP 5.4% ; Previous contribution to GDP 6.0% - Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities: Revised 1,323 ; Published 464 ; New contribution to GDP 3.2% ; Previous contribution to GDP 1.3% - Human Health and Social Work Activities: Revised 1,231 ; Published 317 ; New contribution to GDP 3.0% ; Previous contribution to GDP 0.9% - Total Services: Revised 19,861 ; Published 15,888 ; New contribution to GDP 48.5% ; Previous contribution to GDP 45.5% - Note: Revised Services GVA is UGS 4.0 trillion or 25.0 percent higher than published, increasing share by 3.0 percent of GDP; large increases in Telecommunications, Trade, Human health and social work, Business services; declines in Accommodation and Food services. ### Adjustments, margins and imports - Adjustments (FISIM and Taxes on Products): Revised 2,930 ; Published 2,100 ; increase UGS 0.8 trillion or 39.5 percent higher than published due to allocation of FISIM across industries and expenditure components rather than deducting total FISIM from total industry GVA. - Trade and Transport Margins (TTMs): TTMs in final SUT are UGS 1,253 billion higher than in preliminary SUT; corrected by applying margins only to traded goods and adding cumulative margins where both traders involved. - Imports: No adjustments to imports other than the c.i.f./f.o.b. adjustment for international freight transport and insurance of – UGS 2,333 billion; input data updated for a number of imports of services: around UGS 746 billion. - Product taxes less subsidies: No subsidies on products reported for 2009/10; input estimates are UGS 297 billion lower than product taxes used in preliminary SUT due to taxes refunded. ### Final consumption expenditure (FCE) and household adjustments - Total adjustments to household FCE (HFCE): around UGS 1,996 billion. - Main household under-reporting adjustments (UGS 612 billion) for beer, tobacco, schoolchildren expenditures (confectionery, soft drinks, other food), and gambling. - Under-reporting for various food products, social work activities, membership organizations: UGS 438 billion. - Adjustments for FISIM and financial services not included in UNHS: UGS 375 billion. - Under-coverage of imported services (higher education, health, travel) using BOP data: UGS 244 billion. - Adjustments for non-response (~7 percent) of UNHS, mainly high income households: UGS 434 billion for edible oils, flour, dairy, coffee, other food, transport, other manufactured goods and services. - Government and NPISH: expanded coverage of General Government expenditure increased other FCE; sales of goods and services by Government reduced by UGS 98 billion (already included in HFCE and IC); no adjustments to total NPISH FCE. ### Gross Capital Formation and inventories - Initial finalization: no adjustments to input data for GFCF and changes in inventories. - Subsequent UBOS revisions since November 2013: - GFCF: UGS 975 billion - Changes in inventories: UGS 108 billion ### Exports and intermediate demand reconciliation - Exports: net adjustments of UGS 363 billion in finalizing SUT, mainly for unrecorded exports to Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya and South Sudan and allocated FISIM. - Intermediate demand and I/O matrix: - Initial discrepancy between product-based intermediate demand and industry IC: around UGS 2.1 trillion. - I/O matrix used to allocate intermediate demand; I/O matrix balancing increased total IC by industry by UGS 360 billion. - Main IC adjustments (UGS): Animal production IC +UGS 389 billion; Meat processing IC +UGS 389 billion; Grain mill flour IC +UGS 519 billion; Other manufacturing IC reduced net UGS 566 billion; Accommodation and food services IC +UGS 656 billion; Communication and information services IC reduced UGS 607 billion; Financial services IC reduced UGS 137 billion. ### Gross Output (GO) adjustments (net reduction UGS 198 billion) - Selected GO changes (UGS): - Animal production GO increased by UGS 94 billion. - Meat processing GO increased by UGS 295 billion. - Grain mill flour GO increased by UGS 560 billion. - Informal sector beer manufacturing GO reduced by UGS 135 billion. - Other manufacturing GO reduced by UGS 100 billion. - Gross margins for wholesale and retail trade reduced by UGS 74 billion. - GO increases: Business services +UGS 64 billion, Secondary/technical/vocational education +UGS 179 billion, Human health +UGS 59 billion, Other services +UGS 105 billion. - GO reduced for other education categories UGS 379 billion and Social work activities UGS 428 billion to align with use side estimates. ### Methodology development, compilation guidance and prior TA - Prior TA and missions: initial review August 2010; follow-ups June 2011, December 2012, April and June 2013; external consultant (MFPED-funded) assisted compiling preliminary SUT; MSA reviewed preliminary SUT in November 2013. - Methodological developments: - Methodology and worksheets for agriculture and construction WIP and gross capital formation. - Improvements to quarterly constant price GDP estimates and production of constant price GO and IC estimates. - Development of methodology for compiling quarterly current price GDP estimates and quarterly output and IC GO and IC estimates. - Development of methodology to produce QGDP by expenditure share (current and constant prices) and quarterly estimates of other key NAS aggregates in current prices (timelines to be implemented by NAS staff with AFE TA). - Compilation file structure guidance: - Include summary worksheets (annual and quarterly aggregates for total, monetary (formal/informal) and non-monetary GO, IC and GVA at current and constant prices), compilation worksheets, source data worksheets, and benchmark data worksheet. - Use annual and quarterly average population and household numbers. - Matched pair approach for VAT turnover and similar variables to avoid distortion from improved VAT compliance or units entering VAT net. - Fixed IC/GO ratios will not be used for current price estimates; composite IC price indices to reflate constant price IC to current prices. ### Sector-specific compilation guidance and data recommendations (selected) - Agriculture: use 2008 Livestock Census, 2008/09 UCA, 2009/10 UNHS, 2009/10 UNPS; monetary/non-monetary splits from UNHS; recommended annual agriculture survey sample ~8,000; interim quarterly agriculture survey annual sample ~500. - Mining and Quarrying: collect additional data for petroleum and natural gas; all production treated as monetary. - Manufacturing: 43 activities extrapolated using IOP and exports data; current price GO via PPI; resolve meat processing movement with Industry Statistics Directorate. - Electricity and Water: develop composite IC price indices to reflate IC; treat production as monetary formal sector. - Trade and Transport: use benchmark gross margins and 16 value and volume indices; replace dummy indicators for cash crops and mining when available. - Transport sub-sectors (road freight, water, air, warehousing, postal): detailed composite volume indices and composite IC price indices prescribed; GVA derived as residuals. - Telecommunications and Information: composite weighted volume indices for talk time and internet usage; use quarterly financial statements where available. - Financial and Insurance: FISIM derived by extrapolating benchmark using volume indices for deposits and loans deflated by general CPI; other revenue deflated using services CPI. - Education, Health, Public Administration, Real Estate, Professional services, Arts, Other Services, Households as Employers: detailed extrapolation and deflation rules provided; many recommend using Annual survey (or income tax system) data to update current price estimates. ### Completion of the GDP Rebase — Timetable (selected tasks and dates) - Task 1: Finalize compilation worksheets in Excel for all activities and expenditure components. Completion Date: 08/01/2014. - Task 2: Finalize development of the output and publication worksheets in Excel. Completion Date: 08/01/2014. - Task 3: Collect all prices, value and volume data and indicators required. Completion Date: 08/29/2014. - Task 4: Update worksheets to Quarter 2 of 2014, CY2013 and FY2013/14. Completion Date: 09/05/2014. - Cross-check and publication deadlines: - Cross-check other compilers worksheets: Date: 09/09/2014. - Prepare publication tables and explanations: Date: 09/16/2014. - Clear publication through UBOS management: Date: 09/23/2014. - Release the rebased annual and quarterly estimates: Date: 09/30/2014. ### Action plan highlights and milestones (selected from Appendix II) - Objective: Compile SUTs and rebase GDP estimates to 2009/10. Completion Date: 09/30/2014. - Institutional and capacity targets: - Improve institutional infrastructure and operational capacity to compile NAS. Completion Date: 06/30/2014. - Build technical capacity of NAS compilers. Completion Date: 06/30/2014. - Secure additional TA and ensure adequate staff/redeployment. Completion Dates: 12/31/2011 and 12/31/2013 (additional three statisticians recruited). - Establish NAS Technical Committee. Completion Date: 09/30/2014 (status: Delayed). - Compilation and dissemination milestones: - Compile SUTs, produce benchmark estimates and rebase NAS. Completion Date: 09/30/2014 (status: Revised). - Redevelop NAS compilation system. Completion Date: 09/30/2014 (status: Mostly completed). - Expand range of NA aggregates and accounts disseminated. Completion Date: 09/30/2014. - Update Concepts, Sources and Methods Manual. Completion Date: 09/30/2014 (initial release early-October 2011). *IMF Staff report: Executive Summary and mission findings (cr17297) — Technical assistance mission to Uganda (May 5–23, 2014).* ### Executive Summary ...................................................................................................... ### Executive Summary ### Mission background and objectives - A Macroeconomic Statistics Advisor (MSA) at the East Africa Technical Assistance Center (AFE) undertook a technical assistance (TA) mission to Kampala during May 5–23, 2014 (activity 14STG38:06) to provide advice in finalizing the 2009/10 supply and use tables (SUT) and compiling the rebased annual (ANA) and quarterly national accounts (QNA) statistics for Uganda. - The activity was undertaken within the project: National Accounts Statistics STA_UGA_2011_07. - The mission worked closely with the NAS Unit staff, providing training on SUT compilation and source data issues, and developed additional worksheets to facilitate cross-product and cross-industry analysis. ### Institutional context and progress - UBOS is responsible for producing national accounts statistics (NAS) and disseminates GDP estimates via quarterly Key Economic Indicators, annual Statistical Abstract, government budget papers, and the UBOS website. - UBOS commenced dissemination of improved quarterly constant price GDP estimates through its website in October 2011 and participates in the IMF–DFID: Enhanced Data Dissemination Initiative (EDDI) QNA Statistics Module. - The mission noted ongoing efforts: development of current price quarterly GDP estimates (expected release in late September 2014) and a planned follow-up mission to review and finalize 2009/10 base year annual and quarterly GDP estimates for dissemination in mid-September 2014. ### Final 2009/10 SUT outputs - The final 2009/10 SUT include benchmark commodity flow and industry estimates and an improved input/output (I/O) matrix for 161 activities by 161 products or commodity groups, aligned with ISIC Revision 4. - New worksheets provide separate estimates for contributions of General Government, NPISH, other formal sector units, and informal sector units (monetary and non-monetary/subsistence) in GO and IC sheets. - The FCE sheet includes separate estimates of FCE for households (split by purchases, own produced and gifts/in-kind), General Government, and NPISH. - Adjustments to source data are explicitly identified with explanations. ### Key statistical changes and comparison with published GDP - The revised GDP estimate in the SUT is UGS 40,946 billion, compared with the published GDP of UGS 34,908 billion for 2009/10. - The revised GDP is around UGS 6.0 trillion or 17.3 percent higher than the published estimate. - Comparison between the SUT and Published GDP Estimates (UGS billions): - Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing: Revised GDP 10,732 Published GDP 8,245 New contribution to GDP 26.2% Previous contribution to GDP 23.6% - Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities and Construction: Revised GDP 7,424 Published GDP 8,675 New contribution to GDP 18.1% Previous contribution to GDP 24.9% - Services Industries: Revised GDP 19,861 Published GDP 15,888 New contribution to GDP 48.5% Previous contribution to GDP 45.5% - Adjustments (FISIM and Taxes of Products): Revised GDP 2,930 Published GDP 2,100 New contribution to GDP 7.2% Previous contribution to GDP 6.0% - GDP: Revised 40,946 Published 34,908 100.0% 100.0% ### Sources of the GDP level increase - The increased GDP level reflects: - More comprehensive and higher-quality source data for the 2009/10 SUT compared with the 2002 SUT benchmark. - Incorporation of significantly revised source data for a number of industries since November 2013 and methodological improvements. - Quantified impacts on GDP level: - Net impact of revised industry source data increased GDP level by around UGS 2.5 trillion or 7.1 percent. - Improved methodology for calculating trade and transport margins (TTMs) contributed a 2.2 percent increase in the GDP level. - Replacing estimates based on imputed bank service charges with estimates of FISIM (allocated across industries and expenditure components) contributed a further 1.2 percent increase to the new GDP level. ### Methodology development and prior TA - MSA and AFE experts conducted prior reviews and TA missions: - Initial review of the 2002 SUT and data requirements in August 2010; draft SUT templates developed. - Follow-up missions in June 2011, December 2012, April and June 2013 for source data use, quality assurance, SUT methodology training, and product balance worksheets. - External consultant (MFPED-funded) provided TA on compiling the preliminary SUT. - MSA reviewed preliminary SUT in November 2013 and identified areas for improving input data and methodology. - Specific methodology improvements and developments: - Methodology and worksheets for agriculture and construction work-in-progress and gross capital formation. - Improvements to quarterly constant price GDP estimates and production of constant price GO and IC estimates. - Development of methodology for compiling quarterly current price GDP estimates. - Development of methodology and GO and IC estimates for quarterly output and intermediate consumption. - Development of methodology to produce QGDP by expenditure share (current and constant prices) and quarterly estimates of other key NAS aggregates in current prices (timelines to be implemented by NAS staff with AFE TA). ### Project framework outcomes, status, and timelines - Staffing: NAS Unit increased from 8 to 10 statisticians (completed 11/21/2011). - Training: Ongoing training provided during missions and workshops; need to nominate staff for IMF and other NAS courses (target 12/31/2014). - Data sources: New surveys under implementation and improved coordination with other data providers (target 12/31/2014). - Rebasing of QGDP: New base year 2009/10 QGDP series (target 09/30/2014). SUT finalized and benchmark estimates compiled; QGDP series being finalized and updated. - Timeliness and dissemination: - QNA released within three months after the reference quarter (completed; QGDP constant price estimates released early October 2011; UBOS plans to improve timeliness to two months). - Release QGDP by economic activity based on one digit on ISIC revision 4 (deadline revised to allow more time for data improvements; target 09/30/2014). - Update and release revised concepts, sources and methods manual for QGDP (initial release October 2011; revised version expected September 2014). - Planned deliverables and expectations before the mid-September 2014 follow-up mission: - Complete data collection for all periods to Quarter 2 of 2014 by end-August 2014. - Compile GDP estimates at current and constant 2009/10 prices for calendar year 2013, financial years 2012/13 and 2013/14, and Quarters 1 and 2 of 2014 by the first week of September 2014. - Appendix I includes statistical tables of the SUT and current NAS estimates. Appendix II provides the updated GDP rebase action plan. *IMF Staff report: Executive Summary (cr17297) — Technical assistance mission to Uganda (May 5–23, 2014).* ### 2. The Ugandan Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) is responsible for producing ### cr17297 - 2. The Ugandan Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) is responsible for producing ### Overview and dissemination - UBOS produces national accounts statistics (NAS): estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) by economic activity and expenditure share are compiled annually and disseminated via the quarterly Key Economic Indicators and annual Statistical Abstract publications. - Summary estimates are released in the government budget papers and via the UBOS website. - UBOS commenced disseminating improved quarterly constant price GDP estimates through its website in October 2011. - The GDP estimates are broadly consistent with the System of National Accounts 1993 standards. - UBOS is participating in the IMF–DFID: Enhanced Data Dissemination Initiative (EDDI) QNA Statistics Module and is improving and rebasing annual GDP estimates. - Next phase: produce current price quarterly GDP estimates as part of the rebase exercise with an expected release by late September 2014. ### Statistics prerequisites, staffing and capacity constraints - Budget funding for UBOS has been significantly constrained in recent years; most SUT data were eventually collected, but main remaining data gaps are: - detailed international trade in services - detailed product breakdown of IC components by economic activity - Resource constraints delayed quality assurance on 2009/10 Uganda Business Inquiry (UBI) and Uganda National Household Survey (UNHS) outputs, other surveys and administrative data; extra QA work done by NAS Unit. - Recruiting external consultants was challenging; a consultancy firm was recruited in May 2012 and assisted in compiling and balancing preliminary SUT estimates in October 2013. - Recommendation: secure budget funding to recruit a suitable expert to provide the 40 weeks of TA required for the next GDP rebase (2015), using a single external consultant with support from the AFE MSA as needed (Kenya and Rwanda cited as examples). - MSA activities and training: - MSA reviewed 2002 SUT methodology and data requirements in August 2010 and developed draft templates for 2009/10 SUT. - Follow-up AFE missions in June 2011, December 2012, April and June 2013 provided source data QA, SUT methodology and data entry training. - NAS Unit staffing: ten staff (eight statisticians and two data editors). - Training attended: two-week AFE NAS course in Tanzania (February 2012); AFE QNA training in Uganda (September 2012 and February 2014). - Institutional recommendations: - Review and improve survey and data processing timetables. - Improve data coordination and NAS awareness within UBOS and with other data providers. - Establish the recommended NAS Technical Committee (yet to be established). ### Supply and Use Tables — Key results (2009/10 benchmark) - The final 2009/10 SUT includes benchmark commodity flow and industry estimates and an improved input/output (I/O) matrix for 161 activities by 161 products; activities aligned with ISIC Rev. 4. - Revised GDP and sectoral changes: - Revised GDP estimate in SUT: UGS 40.9 trillion (UGS 40,946 billion). - Published GDP estimate for 2009/10: UGS 34.9 trillion (UGS 34,908 billion). - Increase: around UGS 6.0 trillion or 17.3 percent higher than published estimate. - Table: Comparison between New Benchmark and Published Estimates (UGS billions; contributions preserved) - Agriculture: Revised 10,732 ; Published 8,245 ; New contribution to GDP 26.2% ; Previous contribution to GDP 23.6% - Industry: Revised 7,424 ; Published 8,675 ; New contribution to GDP 18.1% ; Previous contribution to GDP 24.9% - Services: Revised 19,861 ; Published 15,888 ; New contribution to GDP 48.5% ; Previous contribution to GDP 45.5% - Adjustments: Revised 2,930 ; Published 2,100 ; New contribution to GDP 7.2% ; Previous contribution to GDP 6.0% - GDP: Revised 40,946 ; Published 34,908 ; 100.0% ; 100.0% - Agriculture sector (comparison, UGS billions): - Cash Crops: Revised 784 ; Published 530 ; New contribution to GDP 1.9% ; Previous contribution to GDP 1.5% - Food Crops: Revised 5,917 ; Published 4,987 ; New contribution to GDP 14.5% ; Previous contribution to GDP 14.3% - Animal Production: Revised 1,857 ; Published 585 ; New contribution to GDP 4.5% ; Previous contribution to GDP 1.7% - Agriculture Support Services: Revised 12 ; Published - ; New contribution to GDP 0.0% ; Previous contribution to GDP 0.0% - Forestry: Revised 1,574 ; Published 1,270 ; New contribution to GDP 3.8% ; Previous contribution to GDP 3.6% - Fishing: Revised 587 ; Published 873 ; New contribution to GDP 1.4% ; Previous contribution to GDP 2.5% - Total Agriculture: Revised 10,732 ; Published 8,245 ; New contribution to GDP 26.2% ; Previous contribution to GDP 23.6% - Notes on Agriculture: Revised GVA is UGS 2.5 trillion or 30.2 percent higher than published, increasing sector share by 2.6 percent of GDP (Cash crops, Food crops, Animal production and Forestry up; Fishing declined slightly). - Industry sector (comparison, UGS billions): - Mining and Quarrying: Revised 464 ; Published 106 ; New contribution to GDP 1.1% ; Previous contribution to GDP 0.3% - Manufacturing: Revised 3,481 ; Published 2,675 ; New contribution to GDP 8.5% ; Previous contribution to GDP 7.7% - Electricity Supply: Revised 349 ; Published 486 ; New contribution to GDP 0.9% ; Previous contribution to GDP 1.4% - Water Supply & Sewerage: Revised 769 ; Published 82 ; New contribution to GDP 1.9% ; Previous contribution to GDP 2.8% - Construction: Revised 2,360 ; Published 4,427 ; New contribution to GDP 5.8% ; Previous contribution to GDP 12.7% - Total Industry: Revised 7,424 ; Published 8,675 ; New contribution to GDP 18.1% ; Previous contribution to GDP 24.9% - Notes on Industry: Overall Industry GVA is UGS 1.3 trillion or 14.4 percent lower than published, with sector share decreasing by 6.7 percent of GDP—main declines in Electricity supply, Water supply and Construction; partly offset by increases in Mining and Manufacturing. - Services sector (comparison, UGS billions): - Trade and Repairs: Revised 5,298 ; Published 4,229 ; New contribution to GDP 12.9% ; Previous contribution to GDP 12.1% - Transportation and Storage: Revised 1,069 ; Published 1,124 ; New contribution to GDP 2.6% ; Previous contribution to GDP 3.2% - Accommodation and Food Service Activities: Revised 934 ; Published 1,614 ; New contribution to GDP 2.3% ; Previous contribution to GDP 4.6% - Information and Communication: Revised 2,265 ; Published 1,116 ; New contribution to GDP 5.5% ; Previous contribution to GDP 3.2% - Financial and Insurance Activities: Revised 940 ; Published 1,064 ; New contribution to GDP 2.3% ; Previous contribution to GDP 3.0% - Real Estate Activities: Revised 2,194 ; Published 2,108 ; New contribution to GDP 5.4% ; Previous contribution to GDP 6.0% - Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities: Revised 1,323 ; Published 464 ; New contribution to GDP 3.2% ; Previous contribution to GDP 1.3% - Administrative and Support Service Activities: Revised 630 ; Published 116 ; New contribution to GDP 1.5% ; Previous contribution to GDP 0.3% - Public Administration: Revised 1,201 ; Published 1,145 ; New contribution to GDP 2.9% ; Previous contribution to GDP 3.3% - Education: Revised 2,031 ; Published 1,801 ; New contribution to GDP 5.0% ; Previous contribution to GDP 5.2% - Human Health and Social Work Activities: Revised 1,231 ; Published 317 ; New contribution to GDP 3.0% ; Previous contribution to GDP 0.9% - Arts, Entertainment and Recreation: Revised 124 ; Published 44 ; New contribution to GDP 0.3% ; Previous contribution to GDP 0.1% - Other Service Activities: Revised 401 ; Published 463 ; New contribution to GDP 1.0% ; Previous contribution to GDP 1.3% - Activities of Households as Employers: Revised 221 ; Published 282 ; New contribution to GDP 0.5% ; Previous contribution to GDP 0.8% - Total Services: Revised 19,861 ; Published 15,888 ; New contribution to GDP 48.5% ; Previous contribution to GDP 45.5% - Notes on Services: Revised Services GVA is UGS 4.0 trillion or 25.0 percent higher than published, increasing share by 3.0 percent of GDP; large increases in Telecommunications, Trade, Human health and social work, Business services; declines in Accommodation and Food services. - Adjustments: - Revised adjustments to GVA: UGS 2,930 billion versus published 2,100 billion. - Increase of UGS 0.8 trillion or 39.5 percent higher than published due to allocation of FISIM across industries and expenditure components rather than deducting total FISIM from total industry GVA. ### Data sources, methodology and major drivers of GDP increase - Finalization objective: finalize 2009/10 SUT after comprehensive review of preliminary SUT and input files (reviewed November 2013). - Incorporation of significantly revised source data for multiple industries and methodological improvements increased GDP level, consistent with more comprehensive source coverage than 2002 SUT (e.g., inclusion of non-profit institutions, informal cross-border trade, expanded agriculture and informal sector data). - Preliminary SUT GDP was 7.6 percent higher than published 2009/10 GDP. Subsequent UBOS efforts and revised data for key industries increased GDP by around UGS 2.5 trillion or 7.1 percent by economic activity. - Specific revised industry GVA increases since November 2013 (UGS): - Cash crops: +96 billion - Electricity supply: +167 billion - Water supply and sewerage: +141 billion - Real estate activities: +596 billion - Professional and administrative services: +584 billion - Public administration, education and health services: +892 billion - Improved coverage of General Government activities, including donor funded projects, increased GDP by expenditure measure by around 4.6 percent compared to preliminary SUT. - Compilation practices and worksheets: - New worksheets provided separate analysis across supply and use components and detailed breakdowns for GO and IC by General Government, NPISH, other formal sector, informal monetary and non-monetary/subsistence units. - FCE sheet splits households by purchases, own produced and gifts/in-kind; Government and NPISH FCE separate. - Adjustments to source data explicitly identified and explained. - Reconciliation approach and I/O matrix use: - Initial discrepancy between intermediate demand by commodity flow and higher IC from industry files: around UGS 2.1 trillion. - To reconcile, the I/O matrix was used to allocate intermediate demand for products to IC by industry. - Preliminary proportional allocation approach produced improbable IC/GO allocations; final SUT used various input data sources to allocate product intermediate demand to IC by industry (input data limited in coverage and quality but produced better allocations). - Caution: IC product breakdown estimates are particularly weak relative to other SUT estimates. - Methodological improvements increasing GDP: - Improved methodology for calculating gross trade and transport margins (TTMs) contributed a 2.2 percent increase in GDP level. - Replacing imputed bank service charges with allocated FISIM contributed a further 1.2 percent increase to the new GDP level. ### Gross Output (GO) adjustments (net reduction UGS 198 billion) - Main GO adjustments (UGS): - Animal production GO increased by UGS 94 billion to include value of on-farm slaughtered meat for own consumption at basic prices. - Meat processing GO increased by UGS 295 billion. - Grain mill flour GO increased by UGS 560 billion to reflect value of domestically produced paddy (un-milled) rice and other cereal inputs. - Informal sector beer manufacturing GO reduced by UGS 135 billion with a corresponding reduction in beer consumption adjustment. - Other manufacturing GO reduced by UGS 100 billion due to no corresponding use for the additional production. - Gross margins for wholesale and retail trade reduced by UGS 74 billion as sum of product margins was lower. - GO increased for Business services (+UGS 64 billion), Secondary/technical/vocational education (+UGS 179 billion), Human health (+UGS 59 billion), Other services (+UGS 105 billion). - GO reduced for other education categories (UGS 379 billion) and Social work activities (UGS 428 billion) to align with use side estimates. ### Imports - No adjustments to imports in finalizing SUT other than the c.i.f./f.o.b. adjustment for international freight transport and insurance of – UGS 2,333 billion (to avoid double counting). - Input data updated for a number of imports of services (consultancy/technical services, broadcasting, education, human health services): around UGS 746 billion. Some detailed BOP-derived services estimates were not included in preliminary SUT. ### Trade and Transport Margins (TTMs) - TTMs in final SUT are UGS 1,253 billion higher than in preliminary SUT. - Preliminary TTMs were too low because average margins for wholesale and retail were used instead of adding cumulative margins where both traders were involved. - Margins were corrected by applying them only to traded goods (not total output and imports). ### Product taxes less subsidies - No subsidies on products reported for 2009/10. - No adjustments made to non-refundable taxes on products in finalizing SUT. - Input estimates are UGS 297 billion lower than product taxes used in preliminary SUT due to taxes refunded. ### Final Consumption Expenditure (FCE) — Household and Government adjustments - Total adjustments to household FCE (HFCE): around UGS 1,996 billion. - Main household under-reporting adjustments (UGS 612 billion) for beer, tobacco, schoolchildren expenditures (confectionery, soft drinks, other food), and gambling. - Under-reporting for various food products, social work activities, membership organizations: UGS 438 billion. - Adjustments for FISIM and financial services not included in UNHS: UGS 375 billion. - Under-coverage adjustments for consumption of imported services (higher education, health, travel) using BOP data: UGS 244 billion. - Adjustments for non-response (~7 percent) of UNHS, mainly high income households (with security guards): UGS 434 billion for edible oils, flour, dairy, coffee, other food, transport, other manufactured goods and services. - Other FCE changes: - Expanded coverage of General Government expenditure increased other FCE, but sales of goods and services by Government were reduced by UGS 98 billion (already included in HFCE and IC). - No adjustments made to total NPISH FCE. ### Gross Capital Formation - No adjustments to input data for gross fixed capital expenditure (GFCF) and changes in inventories in initial finalization. - UBOS revised input data for SUT since November 2013: - GFCF: UGS 975 billion - Changes in inventories: UGS 108 billion ### Exports - Net adjustments of UGS 363 billion made to exports in finalizing SUT, mainly for unrecorded exports to Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya and South Sudan of cattle, pigs, edible oil, flour, and other food products and allocated FISIM. ### Intermediate demand and I/O matrix balancing - Intermediate demand by product derived as a residual after finalizing supply and other uses and balancing with IC by industry in the I/O matrix. - I/O matrix balancing increased total IC by industry by UGS 360 billion. Main IC adjustments (UGS): - Animal production IC increased by UGS 389 billion to align with revised GO and HFCE. - Meat processing IC increased by UGS 389 billion. - Grain mill flour IC increased by UGS 519 billion. - Quarrying reduced by UGS 34 billion. - Other manufacturing industries IC reduced by UGS 566 billion (net). - Trade and Transport IC reduced by UGS 169 billion. - Accommodation and food services IC increased by UGS 656 billion to align with high intermediate demand estimates. - Communication and information services IC reduced by UGS 607 billion. - Financial services IC reduced by UGS 137 billion. - IC for other services industries reduced by UGS 82 billion (net). *IMF staff report excerpt (cr17297) — Uganda: NAS/SUT and GDP rebasing mission findings and recommendations.* ### 42. With regards to improving the annual and quarterly GDP estimates, an initial ### cr17297 - 42. With regards to improving the annual and quarterly GDP estimates, an initial ### Mission history and overall progress - Initial mission: November 2010 reviewed data sources and compilation methodology for QNA estimates and made recommendations for improvements. - Follow-up missions: May and November 2011, May and November 2012, and May 2013 provided: - Assistance developing methodology and worksheets to compile agriculture and construction work-in-progress (WIP) estimates. - Advice on improving quarterly constant price GDP estimates and producing constant price GO and IC estimates. - Advice on compiling quarterly current price GDP estimates. - Training on methodology and use of source data. - Current mission: new benchmark estimates were included in compilation worksheets and further advice provided on improving indicators and input data to compile quarterly and annual current and constant 2009/10 price GDP estimates. ### Compilation file structure and general guidance - All compilation files should include summary worksheets (green tab color) at the front with: - annual (calendar and fiscal) and quarterly aggregates for total, monetary (with formal and informal sector splits) and non-monetary GO, IC and GVA at current and constant prices. - Followed by: compilation worksheets (yellow tab), source data worksheets (blue tab), and benchmark data worksheet (maroon tab). - Compilers must use annual and quarterly average population and household numbers in compilations. - When using VAT turnover or other variables, use the matched pair approach: - Sum only values of reporting units within each industry for the current quarter where the previous quarter data are also reported. - Calculate growth rate between quarters from matched pairs and add to the quarterly value index. - This prevents growth rates being distorted by improved VAT compliance or additional units entering the VAT net. ### Price and IC/GO treatment - Fixed IC/GO ratios will not be used for current price estimates. - Composite price indices for each economic activity developed to reflate constant price IC to current prices. - Weights for component price indices derived by aggregating values of various IC components in the SUT into 3-5 main inputs (e.g., raw materials, electricity, fuel and transport, repairs and maintenance) and a residual category (other services). - Values of these 4-6 components divided by total IC value to derive weights and compile weighted composite IC price index. - Important operational check: ensure IC/GO ratio in current prices is relatively well-behaved (i.e., does not decrease or increase too much over the quarters/years). ### A. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing — Agriculture (findings and required actions) - Benchmark data sources and surveys used: - 2008 Livestock Census. - 2008/09 Uganda Census of Agriculture (UCA). - 2009/10 UNHS. - 2009/10 Uganda National Panel Survey (UNPS). - These provided volume data for output of 17 major crops and stocks for 15 types of livestock for the GDP rebase. - New compilation worksheets: - Detailed GO, IC and GVA estimates in current prices for major crop types based on UCA (area cultivated, harvest, yield rates, crop prices), UNHS consumption expenditure, Development Authorities data, and input costs from the 2012 Agriculture Study. - Crops Production Summary.xls includes benchmark 2009/10 crops’ production estimates for all 32 crop-types. - Animal production estimates for 2009/10: - Based on updated intake and off-take ratios and benchmark prices from 2009/10 UNPS, output price indexes, and input price indexes. - Cash crops: - ISIC AA – Cash Crops.xls expanded to include production data for sugar cane, tobacco, cotton, flowers and palm oil. - Ongoing estimation: all cash crop production treated as monetary and formal sector activity. - NAS compiler must ensure distribution of total inputs across each season is used to allocate GO for cash crops. - Food crops: - ISIC AB – Food Crops.xls includes GO, IC and GVA in current and constant 2009/10 prices for the 22 main food crops from Quarter 1 of 2008 onwards. - Post-harvest quantities and area cultivated data from the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) available for 17 crops. - Extrapolation rules: - Maize yield rate and change in area used to extrapolate minor cereals. - Sweet potatoes data used for yams. - Beans and peas data used for other legumes and pulses. - For other fruits and vegetables, a composite volume index based on growth in total area cultivated and population used. - 2009/10 farm-gate prices for outputs and IC extrapolated using price indexes based on CPI and CSI. - Monetary/non-monetary breakdowns: - Worksheets expanded to include monetary and non-monetary breakdowns by crop type using UNHS data on production for own consumption. - Non-monetary subsistence extrapolated using rural population growth rate proxy. - Monetary component derived as residual (total minus non-monetary). - All food crop production treated as informal sector activity until UBOS identifies large commercial farms and collects production data. - A summary sheet for financial year estimates needs to be added to ISIC AB – Food Crops.xls. - Animal production monetary split: - Monetary/non-monetary breakdown needs to be added to ISIC AC – Animal Production.xls using same methodology as food crops. - All production treated as informal sector until large commercial dairy farmers or ranches are identified and data collected. - Data quality and survey recommendations: - NAS Unit must continue to rely on poor-quality MOA data to extrapolate benchmark estimates for food crops in the short term. - Recommendation (from November 2010 mission): UBOS should develop and conduct annual agriculture surveys similar to Rwanda’s, with a sample of around 8,000 reporting units and two rounds of visits per season. - Interim measure: NAS Unit conducting a small quarterly agriculture survey with an annual sample of around 500 farmers; valuable for validating MOA production estimates and collecting quarterly indicators (output yield rates, inputs, farmgate output prices, purchaser prices for inputs). - Survey was not conducted during the last few quarters due to budget constraints — it is vital that this quarterly agriculture survey recommence as soon as possible and that NAS Unit continue involvement in data collection and quality assurance. - NAS Unit also collected data on live animals sold to abattoirs (prices per live animal, carcass weight, meat and offal weight per animal). ### A. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing — Agriculture Support Services - Estimates included in SUT based on Non-Profit Institutions Survey (NPIS); this activity was previously not measured and improves GDP coverage. - SUT production estimates used as benchmarks in ISIC AD - Agriculture Support Services.xls. - All production treated as monetary and formal sector. - Constant price benchmarks extrapolated using movement in monetary GO for agriculture crops and animal production. - Composite price indices used to reflate constant price GO and IC to current prices; GVA derived as residual. - Dummy quarterly data for cash crops in volume indices sheet need replacing with actual data now that cash crop estimates are finalized. ### A. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing — Forestry - ISIC AE – Forestry.xls updated with revised benchmark estimates and can be updated for latest quarters/years. - Benchmark logging extrapolated using constant price inputs of wood for construction and furniture manufacturing. - Firewood and charcoal extrapolated using trend estimates of household use of these fuels in cooking (constant price UNHS consumption trend between 2005/06 and 2009/10 did not provide realistic growth rates). - Other forestry products extrapolated using current and constant price movement for all other forestry activities’ production. - Price indices: - CSI timber price index used for logging output. - CPI for charcoal used for solid fuel GO. - File includes monetary/non-monetary split; all monetary production treated as informal sector production. - Action required: develop composite IC price index for deriving current price IC. GVA should be derived as residual. ### A. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing — Fishing - ISIC AF – Fishing.xls updated with revised benchmark estimates and can be updated for latest quarters/years. - GO estimates extrapolated using commodity flow approach. - CPI for fresh fish used for GO price index. - Benchmark IC/GO ratio used to estimate constant price IC. - File includes monetary/non-monetary split; all monetary production treated as informal sector production. - Action required: develop composite IC price index for deriving current price IC. GVA should be derived as residual. ### B. Mining and Quarrying - Final benchmark estimates included in ISIC B – Mining and Quarrying.xls with separate estimates for petroleum, mining and quarrying activities; file can be updated for latest periods. - Compilation method: - Current price GO and constant price GO and IC estimates compiled by extrapolating benchmark estimates using volume indices based on production quantities and value indices based on value (prices × quantities) from Construction industry file and Mines Department. - Data needs: compiler still needs to collect additional data, especially for petroleum and natural gas. - Benchmark IC/GO ratios used to derive constant price IC; composite IC price indices used to reflate to current price IC; GVA derived as residual. - All production treated as monetary. - Formal sector benchmarks based on UBI data; informal sector derived as residual. ### C. Manufacturing - Final SUT benchmark estimates incorporated into ISIC C – Manufacturing.xls and can be updated for latest quarters/years. - Benchmark estimates for 43 manufacturing activities extrapolated using quarterly volume indicators based on the Index of Production (IOP) and exports data for tobacco to derive constant price GO and IC (using benchmark IC/GO ratio); GVA derived as residual. - NAS compiler action: discuss and resolve unrealistic movement for meat processing with Industry Statistics Directorate staff. - Current price GO estimation: - Extrapolate GO benchmarks using value indicators derived by reflating volume indicators using detailed manufacturing producer price indices (PPI). - IC estimation: - Composite price indices based on CPI, PPI and implicit price deflators (IPD) for animal production GO and logging GO used to reflate volume indicators to produce IC value indicators for each industry and extrapolate benchmark IC. - Separate estimates compiled for each of the 43 activities at current and constant 2009/10 prices, including totals; monetary formal and informal sectors; and non-monetary production for own final use (where appropriate). ### D. Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Supply - SUT benchmark estimates added to ISIC D – Electricity Supply.xls and file can be updated for latest periods. - IC/GO ratio revised down in balancing process. - Industry GVA estimated as sum of GVA of distributor and domestic generating companies selling to distributor. - Constant price: benchmark GO and IC extrapolated using volume of electricity distributed and benchmark IC/GO ratio; GVA derived as residual. - Current price GO: - Benchmark GO extrapolated using a value index (based on inflating volume index using CPI for electricity and adjusted to 2009/10 = 100). - Action required: develop composite price index to produce similar value index to extrapolate IC benchmark to current price IC; GVA derived as residual. - Data update recommendation: use annual survey (or income tax system) data to update current price estimates. - All production should be treated as monetary formal sector. ### E. Water Supply, Sewerage and Waste Management Activities - ISIC E – Water Supply, Sewerage and Waste Management.xls includes final SUT benchmark estimates and should be updated for latest quarters/years. - Constant price estimates: - Formal sector benchmark GO and IC extrapolated using volume of water distributed by National Water Supply Company (NWSC) and benchmark IC/GO ratio; GVA derived as residual. - NWSC provides water supply and sewerage collection services. - Same indicator used to extrapolate informal sector monetary GO; informal sector IC/GO ratio applied to derive IC; GVA derived as residual. - Non-monetary component: - Trend growth rate of households collecting own water between UNHS 2005/06 and UNHS 2009/10 used to extrapolate benchmark GO and GVA estimates. - There is no IC for non-monetary water collection by households — only GVA (labor). - Current price estimates: - CPI water charges index used to reflate volume indices to produce value indices where 2009/10 = 100; used to extrapolate all three benchmark GO estimates. - Action required: develop composite price index to extrapolate IC benchmark to current price IC; GVA derived as residual for monetary formal and informal sectors. - Annual survey (or income tax system) data for NWSC should be used to update current price estimates for formal sector. ### F. Construction - Final 209/10 benchmark estimates included in ISIC F – Construction.xls and file should now be updated for latest periods. - Benchmark GO by type of construction extrapolated using volume and value indices for construction materials. - Commodity flow approach used to develop indices of use of various materials in construction. - Source data for volume indicators: IOP and Mines Department for domestic production; deflated imports and exports data from Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) and Informal Cross Border Trade Survey (ICBTS). - Current price external trade data for construction materials are deflated; domestic production volumes adjusted to current values using CSI prices. - Benchmark ratios applied to constant price material inputs to derive other IC components (e.g., electricity, fuel, other services) and GVA. - Relevant price indices used to reflate IC components and GVA to produce current price estimates. - Separate estimates produced at current and constant 2009/10 prices for total construction activity, formal and informal sectors, and non-monetary production (traditional dwelling construction). ### G. Motor Vehicle Sales and Repairs, and Other Wholesale and Retail Trade - ISIC G – Trade and Repairs.xls includes final benchmark estimates and can be updated for latest quarters/years. - Motor vehicles and motorcycles: - Benchmark estimates for sales margins extrapolated using value and volume indices compiled using imports data to derive current and constant price estimates. - Weighted composite volume indicator based on motor registration data used to extrapolate benchmark GO for repairs to derive constant price GO. - Reflated using a price index based on CPI for vehicle maintenance to derive current price GO. - Benchmark IC/GO ratio used to derive constant price IC; GVA derived as residual. - Composite IC price index used to reflate constant price IC to current prices; GVA derived as residual. - Separate formal and informal sector estimates compiled. - Wholesale and retail trade: - Final SUT gross margins data and UBI IC/GO ratios used for total, formal and informal GO and IC benchmarks respectively. - Benchmark gross margins extrapolated using 16 value and volume indices, derived from monetary GO for agriculture, forestry, fishing, mining and quarrying and manufacturing, and imports data. - Benchmark IC/GO ratio used to derive constant price IC; GVA derived as residual. - Composite IC price index used to reflate constant price IC to current prices; GVA derived as residual. - Separate formal and informal sector estimates compiled. - NAS compiler needs to replace dummy indicator data for cash crops and mining once final monetary GO estimates for cash crops and mining have been compiled. ### H. Transport and Storage - Final benchmark estimates added to ISIC H – Transport and Storage.xls; file can be updated for latest periods. - Separate formal and informal sector estimates compiled for each transport and storage activity, as appropriate. - Rail transport: - Quarterly financial data used to compile current price estimates. - Volume indicator based on net ton-kilometers used to extrapolate benchmark estimates and derive constant price estimates. - Road passenger transport: - Constant price GO and IC compiled by extrapolating benchmark GO using weighted composite passenger volume index (based on vehicle registration and tourist arrivals data) and benchmark IC/GO ratio. - Current price GO and IC estimated by extrapolating benchmarks using value indices derived from reflating constant price series using composite price indexes: - CPI bus and taxi fares for GO. - CPI petrol, maintenance and other services for IC. - GVA estimates derived as residuals. *IMF staff report excerpt.* ### 75. Constant price GO and IC estimates for road freight transport are compiled ### 75. Constant price GO and IC estimates for road freight transport are compiled ### Transport: Road, Water, Air, Warehousing, Postal - Road freight transport - Constant price GO and IC estimates: extrapolate benchmark GO using a weighted composite freight volume index (based on vehicle registration, diesel and constant price trade margins) and the benchmark IC/GO ratio. - Current price GO and IC: extrapolate benchmarks using value indices derived from reflating the constant price series using composite price indexes: - GO reflated with CPI transport. - IC reflated with CPI diesel, maintenance and other services. - GVA estimates: derived as residuals. - Water transport - Constant price GO and IC: extrapolate benchmark GO using the rural population growth rate as proxy for volume and apply benchmark IC/GO ratio. - Current price GO and IC: use CPI transport fares and a composite IC price index to produce value indices to reflate constant price series. - GVA estimates: derived as residuals. - Air transport - Constant price GO and IC: extrapolate benchmark GO using a weighted composite volume index (based on freight, passenger and mail volumes through Entebbe) and apply benchmark IC/GO ratio. - Compiler action: arrange with the Civil Aviation Authority to provide data specific to Air Uganda. - Current price GO and IC: extrapolate benchmarks using value indices derived by reflating constant price series with: - GO: CPI airfares. - IC: CPI for transport maintenance and petrol. - GVA estimates: derived as residuals. - Data update recommendation: use Annual survey (or income tax system) for Air Uganda to update current price estimates. - Warehousing and support activities - Constant price GO and IC: extrapolate benchmark GO using a weighted composite volume index (based on freight, passenger and mail volumes) and apply benchmark IC/GO ratio. - Current price GO and IC: produce value indices using: - GO price index: composite based on CPI rents and other services. - IC price index: composite index. - GVA estimates: derived as residuals. - Postal and courier services - Constant price GO and IC: extrapolate benchmark GO using a composite volume index (mail cargo and postal volume indicators) and apply benchmark IC/GO ratio. - Current price GO and IC: value indices based on GO price index (CPI transport) and a composite IC price index. - GVA estimates: derived as residuals. ### Accommodation and Food Service Activities - Accommodation services - Constant price GO and IC: extrapolate benchmark GO using a composite volume index based on: - trend constant price growth rate between UNHS 2005/06 and 2009/10 household FCE, - tourists, - constant price IC for client industries. - Apply benchmark IC/GO ratio for IC. - Current price GO and IC: value indices produced by reflating with: - GO: CPI accommodation/rents (use PPI for accommodation services for GO price index once available). - IC: composite IC price index. - GVA estimates: derived as residuals. - Food and beverage service activities - Constant price GO and IC: extrapolate benchmark GO using a composite volume index based on: - trend constant price growth rate between UNHS 2005/06 and 2009/10 household expenditure, - tourists, - constant price IC for client industries. - Apply benchmark IC/GO ratio for IC. - Current price GO and IC: value indices produced by reflating with: - GO: CPI meals away/restaurants (use PPI for catering services for GO price index once available). - IC: composite IC price index. - GVA estimates: derived as residuals. ### Information and Communication - General - Final SUT benchmarks incorporated into ISIC J – Information and Communication.xls; file can be updated for recent periods. - Telecommunications - Current price estimates: use quarterly financial statements where available. - Constant price GO and IC: extrapolate benchmark using a composite weighted volume index based on: - talk time within network, across networks, international, fixed line; - internet usage and connections. - GVA: derived as residual. - If financial statements unavailable: compile current price GO by reflating the volume index using a composite weighted price index based on CPI for various telecommunication charges to derive a value index. - Publishing - Benchmark GO: over 90 percent from household consumption expenditure on books and magazines. - Constant price GO: extrapolate using trend constant price growth rate between UNHS 2005/06 and 2009/10 household FCE. - Constant price IC: apply benchmark IC/GO ratio. - Current price GO: reflate volume index with CPI for books and magazines. - GVA: derived as residual. - Audio-visual production, broadcasting, computer and information services - Lack comprehensive ongoing source data. - Current price GO estimates: use value indices based on VAT turnover data to extrapolate benchmark GO. - Constant price GO: convert value indices to volume indices using services CPI. - Constant price IC: apply benchmark IC/GO ratios. - GVA: derived as residual. - Data update recommendation: use Annual survey (or income tax system) data. - IC value indices - Composite IC price indices used to construct IC value indices and extrapolate IC benchmarks; current price GVA estimates derived as residuals. ### Financial and Insurance Activities - Files updated: ISIC K – Financial and Insurance.xls includes final benchmark estimates; update for latest periods. - Data sources: Bank of Uganda (BOU) and commercial banks for main annual and quarterly input data. - Other financial services, auxiliaries, insurance, pension funds - Use separate worksheets with benchmarks and indicators based on URA income/VAT turnover data for each activity. - FISIM - Derived by extrapolating benchmark estimates using volume indices for deposits and loans deflated using the general CPI. - Other revenue deflated using services CPI. - Apply benchmark IC/GO ratios to compile constant price IC estimates. - Composite IC price indices used to develop IC value indices for current price IC estimates. - GVA estimates: derived as residuals. ### Real Estate Activities - Files updated: ISIC L – Real Estate Activities.xls includes final SUT benchmark estimates; update for latest periods. - Actual and imputed rents - Constant price GO: extrapolate benchmark GO using volume indices based on trend constant price growth rate between UNHS 2005/06 and 2009/10 household FCE. - Constant price IC: apply benchmark IC/GO ratio. - Current price GO: reflate volume index with CPI rents to produce GO value index. - Current price IC: reflate IC volume index with CPI repairs and maintenance to produce IC value index. - GVA estimates: derived as residuals. - Other real estate activities - Current price GO: use VAT turnover–based value index to extrapolate benchmark GO. - Constant price GO: convert value index to volume indices using CPI rents. - Constant price IC: apply benchmark IC/GO ratio. - Current price IC: composite IC price index used to develop IC value index. - GVA estimates: derived as residuals. - Data update recommendation: use Annual survey (or income tax system) data. ### Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities - Files updated: ISIC M - Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities.xls includes final benchmarks; update for latest periods. - Most activities formal sector: use VAT turnover value indices to extrapolate benchmark GO to current price GO. - Convert value indices to volume indices using services CPI to derive constant price GO. - Apply benchmark IC/GO ratios for constant price IC. - Composite IC price indices used for current price IC. - GVA estimates: derived as residuals. - Data update recommendation: use Annual survey (or income tax system) data. ### Administrative and Support Service Activities - Files updated: ISIC N - Administrative and Support Service Activities.xls includes final benchmarks; update for latest periods. - Most activities formal sector: use VAT turnover value indices to extrapolate benchmark GO to current price GO. - Convert value indices to volume indices using services CPI to derive constant price GO. - Apply benchmark IC/GO ratio for constant price IC. - Composite IC price indices used for current price IC. - GVA estimates: derived as residuals. - Data update recommendation: use Annual survey (or income tax system) data. ### Public Administration; Compulsory Social Security Activities - Files updated: ISIC O – Public Administration.xls includes revised benchmark estimates for 2009/10; update for latest periods. - Current price estimates: should be based on more complete government finance data quarterly; interim method: - Extrapolate annual benchmarks using quarterly salaries and wages data (value indicator) and XLPBM to compile quarterly GVA estimates. - Deflation - Discontinue use of general CPI and underlying CPI for deflation (do not reflect actual salary increases). - NAS compiler should develop a labor costs index for Government for deflation purposes. - Interim proxy: use CPI for services as a proxy price deflator for GVA. - Estimation approach - Apply benchmark GVA/GO ratio to derive constant price GO. - IC estimate derived as residual. - Composite IC price index used to reflate constant price IC to derive current price IC. - Current price GVA and IC summed to derive current price GO. ### Education - Files updated: ISIC P – Education.xls includes final benchmarks; update for latest periods. - Public education: use methodology for public administration to estimate public education GO, IC and GVA by level of education (pre-primary and primary; secondary and technical; higher; other). - Private education - Constant price GO: use quarterly constant price trend growth rate of around 1.83 percent in household FCE on education fees between UNHS 2005/06 and 2009/10 to derive constant price GO given data gaps. - Constant price IC: apply benchmark IC/GO ratio. - Current price GO: reflate constant price GO using CPI education fees by level to develop value indices. - Current price IC: reflate constant price IC using composite IC price index. - GVA estimates: derived as residuals. ### Human Health and Social Work Activities - Files updated: ISIC Q – Human Health and Social Work Activities.xls includes final benchmarks; update for latest periods. - Public health: use public administration methodology for GO, IC and GVA. - Private health - Constant price GO: use quarterly constant price trend growth rate of around 2.23 percent in household FCE on doctor consultation and hospital services fees between UNHS 2005/06 and 2009/10 to derive constant price GO given data gaps. - Constant price IC: apply benchmark IC/GO ratio. - Current price GO: reflate constant price GO using CPI for medical charges to develop value indices. - Current price IC: reflate constant price IC using composite IC price index. - GVA estimates: derived as residuals. - Social work activities - Constant price GO: extrapolate benchmark GO using a composite volume index based on client populations (disabled persons, orphans, elderly) using Demographic Health Surveys for 2006 and 2011. - Constant price IC: apply benchmark IC/GO ratio. - Current price GO: reflate constant price GO using services CPI to develop value indices. - Current price IC: reflate constant price IC using composite IC price index. - GVA estimates: derived as residuals. ### Arts, Entertainment and Recreation - Files updated: ISIC R - Arts, Entertainment and Recreation.xls includes final benchmarks; update for latest periods. - Most activities formal sector: use VAT turnover value indices to extrapolate benchmark GO to current price GO. - Convert value indices to volume indices using CPI for other services (and recreation services) to derive constant price GO. - Apply benchmark IC/GO ratio for constant price IC. - Composite IC price indices used to develop current price IC. - GVA estimates: derived as residuals. - Data update recommendation: use Annual survey (or income tax system) data. ### Other Service Activities - Files updated: ISIC S – Other Service Activities.xls includes final benchmarks; update for latest periods. - Constant price GO: extrapolate benchmark GO using quarterly constant price trend growth rate of around 2.52 percent in household expenditure on other services between UNHS 2005/06 and 2009/10. - Constant price IC: apply benchmark IC/GO ratio. - Current price GO: reflate constant price GO using CPI for other services to develop value indices. - Current price IC: reflate constant price IC using composite IC price index. - GVA estimates: derived as residuals. ### Activities of Households as Employers - Files updated: ISIC T – Activities of Households as Employers.xls includes final benchmarks; update for latest periods. - Domestic staff (urban and rural) - Constant price GO and GVA: extrapolate benchmark GO and GVA using quarterly trend growth rates in urban and rural household formation between UNHS 2005/06 and 2009/10 to derive constant price GO (activity lacks IC; only GVA i.e., labor). - Current price GO and GVA: reflate constant price series using CPI for other services to develop value indices. - GVA estimates: included (labor). ### Taxes less Subsidies on Products - Current price estimates: compiled from monthly URA data provided to the compiler for taxes on products. - Annual methodology: improved and adapted for quarterly estimation. - Import duties and VAT on imports - Use deflated import values (or quantity revaluation of imports at the detailed 8-digit level using 2009/10 average prices) as a volume indicator to extrapolate benchmark estimates at disaggregated level. - Excise taxes on selected imports (e.g., alcohol, fuel, and tobacco) - Where imports are homogeneous: use quantities imported as volume indicators. - Otherwise: use method above (deflated import values or quantity revaluation). - Taxes on domestic products - Use constant price monetary GO estimate for relevant goods and services subject to excise or VAT. - Subsidies on products: none currently. ### Completion of the GDP Rebase: Timetable (selected tasks and dates) - Task 1: Finalize the new compilation worksheets in Excel for all economic activities, and expenditure components. - Responsibility: All NAS compilers; Head of NAS Unit - Completion Date: 08/01/2014 - Task 2: Finalize development of the output and publication worksheets in Excel. - Responsibility: Head of NAS Unit - Completion Date: 08/01/2014 - Task 3: Collect all prices, value and volume data and indicators required for compiling the revised estimates. - Responsibility: All NAS compilers; Head of NAS Unit - Completion Date: 08/29/2014 - Task 4: Update the worksheets to Quarter 2 of 2014, CY2013 and FY2013/14. - Responsibility: All NAS compilers; Head of NAS Unit - Completion Date: 09/05/2014 *Source: cr17297 - 75. Constant price GO and IC estimates for road freight transport are compiled (IMF PDF chapter).* ### 5. Cross-check other compilers worksheets ### 5. Cross-check other compilers worksheets ### Immediate compilation tasks and deadlines - Cross-check other compilers worksheets for any formulae errors or unexpected results. - Responsible: All NAS compilers; cleared by Head of NAS Unit - Date: 09/09/2014 - Prepare publication tables and analysis, including explanations for the differences between previous and new levels and growth rates. - Responsible: All NAS compilers; cleared by Head of NAS Unit - Date: 09/16/2014 - Clear publication through UBOS management. - Responsible: Head of NAS Unit - Date: 09/23/2014 - Release the rebased annual and quarterly estimates. - Responsible: UBOS authorities - Date: 09/30/2014 ### Integrated compilation system - The structure of the integrated annual and quarterly compilation system was discussed with NAS Unit staff, covering source data files, compilation files, and the various output and publication files. (Paragraph numbered 110.) ### Appendix I: SUT comparison tables (listed) - Table 1: Economic Activity Summary – Gross Output (Millions UGS) - Table 2: Economic Activity Summary – Intermediate Consumption (Millions UGS) - Table 3: Economic Activity Summary – Gross Value Added and GDP by Economic Activity (Millions UGS) ### Appendix II: Action plan for the SUTs/GDP rebase — Objectives - Objective: Compile SUTs and rebase GDP estimates to 2009/10. - Verifiable indicator: SUTs compiled and GDP estimates rebased to 2009/10. - Completion Date: 09/30/2014 - Assumption: The authorities ensure that appropriate staff and other resources, including TA, are available to implement this action plan. ### Appendix II: Action plan — Key activities, verifiable indicators, completion dates, and implementation status - 0.1 and 0.2 H: Improve institutional infrastructure and operational capacity to compile NAS. - Verifiable indicator: Institutional infrastructure and operational capacity to compile NAS improved. - Completion Date: 06/30/2014 - 0.1.4 M: Improve data reporting enforcement procedures for business surveys. - Verifiable indicator: Improved business survey response rates, including improved quality of reported data. - Completion Date: 06/30/2014 - Assumption/Status: Revised Statistics Law has been drafted. - 0.2.1 H: Build technical capacity of NAS compilers. - Verifiable indicator: Technical knowledge and skills improved through on-the-job learning and training. - Completion Date: 06/30/2014 - Assumption/Status: Training provided during MSA missions. - 0.2.2 H: Secure additional TA to assist with source data extraction, quality assurance and mapping to SUTs activities/products. - Verifiable indicator: Additional TA secured for the project. - Completion Date: 12/31/2011 - Assumption/Status: Funding through FINMAP secured and consultants have been selected. - 0.2.3 H: Ensure adequate staff and other resources are redeployed to collect the additional data needed for the SUTs and rebase. - Verifiable indicator: An additional three statisticians recruited to NAS Unit. - Completion Date: 12/31/2013 - Assumption/Status: Completed. - 0.2.4 H: Strengthen project management for the SUTs/rebase exercise. - Verifiable indicator: Direct management of the project by the MES Director. - Completion Date: 12/31/2010 - Assumption/Status: Implemented. - 0.2.5 H: Establishment of the NAS Technical Committee to improve data coordination and project implementation. - Verifiable indicator: Committee established and meeting on a monthly basis. - Completion Date: 09/30/2014 - Assumption/Status: Delayed. To be established by MES Director. - 3.1 H: Ensure appropriate source data are available to compile the SUT and revised estimates. - Verifiable indicator: The required source data are available and fit for use. - Completion Date: 11/30/2012 Selected 3.1.x activities and statuses: - 3.1.1 H: Complete initial data assessment and stock take of available source data. - Verifiable indicator: Initial assessment of data sources completed. - Completion Date: 08/31/2010 - Status: Completed by NAS counterparts and MSA. - 3.1.2 H: Data extraction, quality assurance and mapping to SUTs activities and products from the Agriculture Census 2008/09. - Completion Date: 05/31/2013 - Status: Completed. - 3.1.3 H: Data extraction, quality assurance and mapping to SUTs activities and products from the Livestock Census 2008. - Completion Date: 05/31/2013 - Status: Completed. - 3.1.4 H: Data extraction, quality assurance and mapping to SUTs activities and products from the 2009/10 UNHS. - Completion Date: 06/30/2013 - Status: Completed. - 3.1.5 H: Data extraction, quality assurance and mapping to SUTs activities and products from the 2009/10 UNPS. - Completion Date: 06/30/2013 - Status: Not Done. - 3.1.6 H: Conduct the 2009/10 NPIS and complete data extraction, quality assurance and mapping to SUTs. - Completion Date: 11/16/2012 - Status: Completed. - 3.1.7 H: Conduct the 2009/10 ITSS and complete data extraction, quality assurance and mapping to SUTs. - Completion Date: 11/02/2012 - Status: Not conducted due to funding constraints. Major data gap in SUTs not addressed. - 3.1.8 H: Data extraction, quality assurance and mapping to SUTs activities and products from the 2009/10 business register data. - Completion Date: 06/30/2013 - Status: Completed. - 3.1.9 H: Ensure that the questionnaire and sample design for the 2009/10 Business Inquiry meet NAS data requirements. - Completion Date: 05/31/2013 - Status: Completed. - 3.1.10 H: International Merchandise Trade Statistics for 2009/10 extracted and mapped to SUTs activities and products. - Completion Date: 05/31/2013 - Status: Completed. - 3.1.11 H: VAT and income tax data for 2009/10 extracted, validated and mapped to SUTs activities and products. - Completion Date: 06/30/2013 - Status: Completed but not used directly in SUT. - 3.1.12 H: Collect 2009/10 data from Ministry of Agriculture, National Forestry Authority and development authorities. - Verifiable indicator: Data on output, IC, GFCF, inventories and farm gate prices for livestock, tea, coffee and forestry collected. - Completion Date: 05/31/2013 - Status: Completed. - 3.1.13 M: Collect 2009/10 data from the Department of Geology on mining and quarrying activities. - Verifiable indicator: Output volume and other available data on mining and quarrying collected. - Completion Date: 05/31/2013 - Status: Completed. - 3.1.14 H: Collect 2008/09 and 2009/10 annual reports for state-owned enterprises. - Completion Date: 05/31/2013 - Status: Completed. - 3.2.15 M: Collect 2008/09 and 2009/10 annual reports for publicly listed enterprises. - Completion Date: 06/30/2013 - Status: Partially completed. - 3.1.16 H: Collect data from BOU on the activities of the Central Bank and other financial intermediaries for 2009/10. - Completion Date: 06/30/2013 - Status: Completed. - 3.1.17 H: Collect detailed BOP data from BOU for 2009/10. - Completion Date: 05/31/2013 - Status: Completed. - 3.1.18 H: Collect data from MFPED and local governments for the General Government for 2008/09 and 2009/10. - Completion Date: 05/31/2013 - Status: Completed. - 3.1.19 H: Collect other administrative data and conduct small-scale surveys to produce adjustment factors and indicators. - Verifiable indicator: Adjustment factors and indicators available for transport and trade margins (TTM), c.i.f./f.o.b., etc. - Completion Date: 05/31/2013 - Status: Completed. - 3.1.20 H: Collect any other value, prices and volume data and indicators required for the compilation of revised annual and quarterly estimates. - Completion Date: 10/31/2013 - Status: Completed. ### Appendix II: Action plan — Compilation and dissemination milestones - 3.3.2 H: Compile the SUTs, produce benchmark estimates and rebase the NAS. - Verifiable indicator: SUTs and benchmark estimates compiled, and NAS rebased. - Completion Date: 09/30/2014 - Note: Revised completion date. - 3.3.2.1 H: An initial assessment of the level of detail for economic activities and products to be included in the SUTs. - Completion Date: 08/31/2010 - Status: Completed by NAS counterparts and MSA. - 3.3.2.2 H: Amend the SUTs templates, as appropriate, based on feedback from data users and providers. - Completion Date: 06/30/2011 - Status: Completed during June 2011 mission. - 3.3.2.3 H: Fill in the I-O and SUTs sector and total tables with the initial estimates. - Completion Date: 05/31/2014 - Status: Completed. Final SUT compiled. - 3.3.2.4 H: Adjust initial estimates to overall size of the different activities using the UNHS employment and other control data. - Completion Date: 05/31/2014 - Status: Completed. Final SUT compiled. - 3.3.2.5 H: Balancing of the SUTs estimates. - Completion Date: 05/31/2014 - Status: Completed. Final SUT compiled. - 3.3.2.6 H: Compilation of symmetric tables and coefficient matrices. - Completion Date: 05/31/2014 - Status: Completed. Final SUT compiled. - 3.3.2.7 H: Redevelop the NAS compilation system. - Completion Date: 09/30/2014 - Status: Mostly completed. - 3.3.2.8 H: Compilation of rebased and expanded estimates for 2009/10 onwards. - Completion Date: 09/30/2014 - Status: Mostly completed. - 3.3.2.9 H: Linking of the 1997/98, 2002 and 2009/10 series. - Completion Date: 09/30/2014 - Note: Revised completion date. - 4.0/5.0 H: Improve dissemination of NAS. - Verifiable indicator: Dissemination of NAS improved. - Completion Date: 09/30/2014 - Note: Revised completion date. - 4.1.1 H: Public release of QNA within three months after the reference quarter. - Verifiable indicator: Public dissemination and improved timeliness of QNA. - Completion Date: 09/30/2014 - Assumption/Implementation Status: UBOS plan to improve timeliness to two months. - 5.1.1 H: Expand the range of NA aggregates and accounts disseminated. - Verifiable indicator: Expanded dissemination of quarterly and annual NAS. - Completion Date: 09/30/2014 - 5.2.1 H: Update Concepts, Sources and Methods Manual. - Verifiable indicator: Revised Manual disseminated. - Completion Date: 09/30/2014 - Note: Initial release in early-October 2011. Priority Scale legend included in the action plan: - H - High - M - Medium - O - Other *Source: cr17297 - 5. Cross-check other compilers worksheets (PDF chapter).* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2017/cr17297.pdf_