## cr17298 — Executive Summary

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**Canonical URL:** [cr17298 — Executive Summary](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2017/cr17298.pdf)

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### Mission purpose and context
- TA mission by the Macroeconomic Statistics Advisor (MSA) at the East Africa Technical Assistance Center (AFE) to Kampala during November 13–26, 2014 to assist with finalizing the rebased annual national accounts (ANA) and quarterly national accounts (QNA) estimates for dissemination. Activity: 14STG38:23; project: National Accounts Statistics STA_UGA_2011_07.
- UBOS responsible for producing National Accounts Statistics and participates in the IMF–DFID: Enhanced Data Dissemination Initiative QNA Module. UBOS rebasing GDP estimates to 2009/10.
- Prior MSA diagnostic missions: August and November 2010; six follow-up missions during 2011–2013; four short-term expert missions; four consultant missions from Oxford Policy Management; additional MSA missions in May and September 2014.

### Main outputs finalized during the mission
- Finalized quarterly and annual GDP by economic activity and GDP by expenditure estimates at current and constant 2009/10 prices for 2008 up to Quarter 2 of 2014. Main statistical tables included in Appendix I.
- New ANA Bulletin prepared with estimates for 2008/09 to 2013/14 financial years and 2008 to 2013 calendar years; includes current price and constant 2009/10 price tables, implicit price deflators, percentage contributions and growth rates by economic activity at 1-digit ISIC Rev. 4 and by expenditure components.
- QNA Bulletin expanded to include quarterly original, seasonally adjusted and trend estimates of GDP and GVA by economic activity at 1-digit ISIC Rev. 4 for all quarters of 2009/10 to 2013/14 (20 quarters). Both bulletins released on November 28, 2014.
- Rebased series linked with the 2002 series; annual current price estimates and volume indices at the 1-digit industry level and for main expenditure components compiled for 1998/99 to 2007/08 financial years and 1998 to 2007 calendar years.
- Completed GDP rebase action plan provided in Appendix II.

### Methodological improvements implemented
- Supply and use tables (SUT) compiled for the 2009/10 base year, improving coverage of economic activities, especially informal sector and non-profit institutions.
- Implemented recommendations of the 1993 SNA and 2008 SNA update.
- Specific changes:
  - Implemented work-in-progress (WIP) methodology for agriculture and construction.
  - Replaced imputed bank charges with allocated financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM).
  - Compiled estimates at a more detailed level; compiled separate gross output (GO) and intermediate consumption (IC) estimates.
  - Reduced use of fixed IC/GO ratios.
  - Used more representative value and volume indicators and prices data.
- For economic activity worksheets, nominal and real growth rates, IC/GO ratios at current and constant prices, and implicit price deflators were checked and adjusted to improve representativeness.

### Revisions and key statistical impacts
- Revisions to national accounts series back to 2008/09 due to rebasing from 2002 to 2009/10 base year.
- Overall level of GDP at current prices increased by an average of 16.5 percent a year as a result of rebasing, with annual increases:
  - 2008/09: 14.6 percent
  - 2009/10: 17.3 percent
  - 2010/11: 20.4 percent
  - 2011/12: 18.4 percent
  - 2012/13: 14.9 percent
  - 2013/14: 13.1 percent

### Headline growth and price indicators (constant 2009/10 prices unless stated)
- Growth rates by sector and total:
  - Agriculture, forestry and fishing: 2009/10 3.2%; 2010/11 2.9%; 2011/12 1.1%; 2012/13 1.8%; 2013/14 1.5%
  - Industry: 2009/10 7.8%; 2010/11 11.4%; 2011/12 3.1%; 2012/13 4.3%; 2013/14 4.3%
  - Services: 2009/10 5.9%; 2010/11 12.4%; 2011/12 4.9%; 2012/13 4.0%; 2013/14 4.2%
  - Taxes less subsidies on products: 2009/10 1.1%; 2010/11 11.9%; 2011/12 15.5%; 2012/13 0.5%; 2013/14 15.5%
  - Total GDP: 2009/10 5.2%; 2010/11 9.7%; 2011/12 4.4%; 2012/13 3.3%; 2013/14 4.5%
- Headline outcomes:
  - Real GDP growth in 2013/14: 4.5 percent (constant 2009/10 prices; compared to 3.3 percent in 2012/13).
  - Nominal GDP growth in 2013/14: 7.0 percent in current prices (compared to revised 2012/13 growth rate of 7.5 percent).
  - GDP implicit price deflator: increased 2.4 percent in 2013/14 (compared to 4.1 percent in previous year).

### Contribution to GDP (constant 2009/10 prices; sectoral shares)
- Agriculture, forestry and fishing: 2008/09 26.7; 2009/10 26.2; 2010/11 24.6; 2011/12 23.8; 2012/13 23.5; 2013/14 22.8
- Industry: 2008/09 17.7; 2009/10 18.1; 2010/11 18.4; 2011/12 18.2; 2012/13 18.4; 2013/14 18.3
- Services: 2008/09 48.2; 2009/10 48.5; 2010/11 49.7; 2011/12 49.9; 2012/13 50.3; 2013/14 50.2
- Taxes less subsidies on products: 2008/09 7.4; 2009/10 7.2; 2010/11 7.3; 2011/12 8.1; 2012/13 7.9; 2013/14 8.7
- Total: 2008/09–2013/14 100.0 (each year)

### GDP per capita (2013/14)
- Current prices:
  - UGX 2.001 million, up 4.0 percent from previous year.
  - USD 788, up 6.1 percent from previous year.
- Constant 2009/10 prices (real terms):
  - UGX 1.480 million, increased 1.5 percent.
  - USD 730, increased 1.5 percent.

### Data quality assessment and limitations
- Current price estimates for expenditure components are of reasonable quality; constant price estimates are weaker.
- Considerable scope to improve price deflators and constant price estimates. TA to improve expenditure estimates planned for 2015.
- Mission improved annual and quarterly estimates for public administration, public education, public health, and GDP by expenditure components.
- Work included compiling agriculture and construction work-in-progress estimates, improved quarterly constant price and new current price GDP estimates, and SUT development.

### Capacity building, dissemination, and next steps
- NAS Unit staffing increased from 8 to 10 (including eight statisticians and two data editors). Elsewhere noted current NAS Unit staffing of nine staff (eight statisticians and one data editor) with need to increase skills and nominate staff for IMF and other NAS courses (target 12/31/2014).
- New ANA and expanded QNA bulletins released on November 28, 2014.
- Next TA mission under this project planned for May 4–15, 2015 to assist with:
  - Developing methodology for compiling independent estimates for Household Final Consumption Expenditure.
  - Improving constant price estimates for Exports and Imports of Goods and Services.
- Completed action plan for GDP rebase in Appendix II.

### Project framework and selected verifiable outcomes (high-level)
- Staffing: Increase NAS Unit statisticians from 8 to 10 — Completed (11/21/2011).
- Training: NAS staff trained on improved source data and compilation techniques — ongoing; training provided during missions and workshops; target to nominate staff for courses by 12/31/2014.
- Data sources: New surveys implemented and coordination improved to address data gaps (target 12/31/2014).
- Rebasing: New base year 2009/10 QGDP series — Completed (11/28/2014).
- Methodology: Improvements to compile QGDP at constant and current prices and to produce GO and IC estimates — Completed (05/31/2014 for several items; further implementations planned).
- Dissemination: QNA released within three months after the reference quarter — Completed; UBOS plans to improve timeliness to two months (target 12/31/2011).
- Release QGDP by activity at one digit ISIC Rev. 4 and updated concepts, sources and methods manual — Completed (11/28/2014).

### Statistics prerequisites, staffing, and funding recommendations
- Remaining data gaps:
  - detailed international trade in services;
  - detailed product breakdown of IC components by economic activity.
- Integrated Trade in Services Survey has been conducted; results will be available for the next rebasing exercise.
- Benchmark industry production surveys need improvement to collect more detailed IC data.
- Recommendation for next GDP rebase (2015): UBOS should secure appropriate budget funding for benchmark surveys and recruit a suitable expert to provide the 40 weeks of TA required. Kenya and Rwanda cited as good examples using a single external consultant with support from the AFE MSA.
- Need to establish the recommended NAS Technical Committee (yet to be established).

### Methodological drivers of level revisions (quantified impacts)
- Improved methodology for gross trade margins contributed 2.2 percent increase in GDP level for 2009/10.
- Replacing imputed bank service charges with allocated FISIM contributed a further 1.2 percent increase to the new GDP level.

### Sectoral compilation approach and key source data highlights (selected)
- Agriculture:
  - WIP methodology for crops adopted in line with 2008 SNA.
  - 2008/09 Uganda Census of Agriculture (UCA) and 2009/10 UNHS/UNPS used for benchmarks.
  - Food crops: GO, IC and GVA for 22 main food crops compiled; monetary/non-monetary splits based on 2009/10 UNHS; small quarterly agriculture survey with annual sample ~500 farmers for QA.
  - Livestock: perpetual inventory method (PIM) and WIP methodology; benchmark data from 2009/10 UNPS and 2008 Livestock Census.
  - Forestry, fishing, and agriculture support services: benchmark and extrapolation methods described; monetary/non-monetary and formal/informal distinctions applied.
- Mining and quarrying:
  - Formal sector benchmarks from UBI, URA income tax and other sources; informal sector derived as residual in SUT.
  - Separate estimates for petroleum, mining and quarrying; extrapolation using production quantity volume indices and value indices.
- Manufacturing:
  - Benchmark using COBE, UBI, URA income tax data; covers 43 manufacturing activities.
  - Extrapolation using Index of Production (IOP), abattoir and exports data for tobacco; detailed Manufacturing PPI used to reflate volume indicators.
- Electricity, Water, Construction, Trade, Transport, Accommodation, Information and Communication, Financial and Insurance, Real Estate, Professional Services, Public Administration, Education, Health, Arts and Other Services:
  - For each activity, benchmark GO and IC compiled; constant price GO derived using volume indicators or composite volume indices; benchmark IC/GO ratios applied to derive constant price IC; composite IC price indices used to reflate to current price IC; GVA derived as residual.
  - Specific price and volume indicators used per activity (e.g., CPI subcomponents, VAT turnover data, vehicle registration, tourist arrivals, diesel sales, net ton-kilometers, electricity distributed).
- FISIM treatment:
  - Current price FISIM derived using reported interest payable and receivable and a weighted average interest rate applied to value of deposits and loans.
  - Constant price FISIM extrapolated using volume indices for deposits and loans deflated by general CPI.
  - FISIM on deposits and loans fully allocated to IC of each economic activity and relevant expenditure component; no explicit deduction for FISIM to sum of GVA in deriving GDP.

### GDP by expenditure — improvements and limitations
- Annual methodology improved and linked to new quarterly methodology for expenditure components except Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HFCE).
- Subcomponents:
  - Government Final Consumption Expenditure: derived by deducting quarterly Government sales revenue from Government output estimates; coverage expanded to full General Government.
  - Final Consumption Expenditure of NPISH: coverage expanded and extrapolated using NPISH activity output.
  - Household Final Consumption Expenditure: still derived as a residual; independent HFCE compilation planned for 2015.
  - Gross Fixed Capital Formation: coverage expanded to biological assets, research and development, mineral exploration; WIP used for biological assets and construction GFCF.
  - Changes in Inventories: significant scope to improve coverage; current methodology only estimates changes in biological assets.
  - Acquisitions less Disposals of Valuables: extrapolated using imports of precious metals and stones, antiques and collectibles; deflated by general CPI.
  - Exports and Imports of Goods and Services: no methodological changes other than rebasing; URA external trade data and BOP used; goods deflated using unit prices; composite deflators for services. Further improvements expected during 2015.

### Action plan and implementation status (Appendix II highlights)
- Objective: Compile SUT and rebase GDP estimates to 2009/10. Verifiable indicator: SUT compiled and GDP estimates rebased to 2009/10. Completion Date: 11/28/2014. Status: Completed.
- Selected activities and completion dates (priority and status where noted):
  - Improve institutional infrastructure and operational capacity to compile NAS. Completion Date: 06/30/2014.
  - Improve data reporting enforcement procedures for business surveys. Completion Date: 06/30/2014.
  - Build technical capacity of NAS compilers. Completion Date: 06/30/2014.
  - Secure additional TA. Completion Date: 12/31/2011.
  - Ensure adequate staff and resources redeployed. Completion Date: 12/31/2013. Status: Completed.
  - Strengthen project management for SUT/rebase. Completion Date: 12/31/2010. Status: Implemented.
  - Establish NAS Technical Committee. Completion Date: 11/28/2014. Status: Delayed. To be established by MES Director.
  - Ensure appropriate source data are available. Completion Date: 11/30/2012.
  - Data extraction and QA tasks for multiple data sources with specific completion dates; many marked Completed (examples: Agriculture Census 2008/09; Livestock Census 2008; 2009/10 UNHS; NPIS; Business register data; International Merchandise Trade Statistics).
  - Redevelop the NAS compilation system. Completion Date: 09/30/2014. Status: Completed.
  - Linking of the 1997/98, 2002 and 2009/10 series. Completion Date: 11/28/2014. Status: Completed.
  - Improve dissemination of NAS. Completion Date: 11/28/2014. Status: Completed. Public release of QNA within three months after the reference quarter targeted; UBOS plan to improve timeliness to two months.
  - Update Concepts, Sources and Methods Manual. Completion Date: 11/28/2014. Status: Completed. Methodology included in ANA Bulletin.

*Source: cr17298 — IMF mission report (Executive Summary and selected sections).*

### Executive Summary ......................................................................................................

### Executive Summary

### Mission purpose and context
- TA mission by the Macroeconomic Statistics Advisor (MSA) at the East Africa Technical Assistance Center (AFE) to Kampala during November 13–26, 2014 to assist with finalizing the rebased annual national accounts (ANA) and quarterly national accounts (QNA) estimates for dissemination. Activity: 14STG38:23; project: National Accounts Statistics STA_UGA_2011_07.
- UBOS is responsible for producing National Accounts Statistics and participates in the IMF–DFID: Enhanced Data Dissemination Initiative QNA Module. UBOS has been rebasing GDP estimates to 2009/10.
- Prior MSA diagnostic missions: August and November 2010; six follow-up missions during 2011–2013; four short-term expert missions; four consultant missions from Oxford Policy Management; additional MSA missions in May and September 2014.

### Main outputs finalized during the mission
- Quarterly and annual GDP by economic activity and GDP by expenditure estimates at current and constant 2009/10 prices for 2008 up to Quarter 2 of 2014 were finalized. Main statistical tables included in Appendix I.
- New ANA Bulletin prepared including estimates for 2008/09 to 2013/14 financial years and 2008 to 2013 calendar years; standard statistical tables at current prices and constant 2009/10 prices; implicit price deflators; percentage contributions to GDP and growth rates for GDP by economic activity at 1-digit ISIC Rev. 4 and GDP by expenditure components.
- QNA Bulletin expanded to include quarterly original, seasonally adjusted and trend estimates of GDP and GVA by economic activity at 1-digit ISIC Rev. 4 level at current and constant prices for all quarters of 2009/10 to 2013/14 (20 quarters). Both bulletins were released on November 28, 2014.
- Rebased series were linked with the 2002 series; annual current price estimates and volume indices at the 1-digit industry level and for main expenditure components compiled for 1998/99 to 2007/08 financial years and 1998 to 2007 calendar years.
- Completed GDP rebase action plan provided in Appendix II.

### Methodological improvements implemented
- Supply and use tables (SUT) compiled for the 2009/10 base year, improving coverage of economic activities, especially informal sector and non-profit institutions.
- Implemented recommendations of the 1993 SNA and 2008 SNA update.
- Specific methodological changes:
  - Implemented work-in-progress (WIP) methodology for agriculture and construction.
  - Replaced imputed bank charges with allocated financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM).
  - Compiled estimates at a more detailed level; compiled separate output (GO) and intermediate consumption (IC) estimates.
  - Reduced use of fixed IC/GO ratios.
  - Used more representative value and volume indicators and prices data.
- For economic activity worksheets, nominal and real growth rates, IC/GO ratios at current and constant prices, and implicit price deflators were checked; adjustments made to improve representativeness of indicators and weights of composite price indices.

### Revisions and key statistical impacts
- Revisions to national accounts series back to 2008/09 due to rebasing from 2002 to 2009/10 base year.
- Overall level of GDP at current prices increased by an average of 16.5 percent a year as a result of rebasing, with annual increases as follows:
  - 2008/09: 14.6 percent
  - 2009/10: 17.3 percent
  - 2010/11: 20.4 percent
  - 2011/12: 18.4 percent
  - 2012/13: 14.9 percent
  - 2013/14: 13.1 percent

### Data quality assessment and limitations
- Current price estimates for expenditure components are of reasonable quality; constant price estimates are weaker.
- Considerable scope to improve price deflators and constant price estimates. TA to improve expenditure estimates planned for 2015.
- Mission improved annual and quarterly estimates for public administration, public education, public health, and GDP by expenditure components.
- Work included compiling agriculture and construction work-in-progress estimates, improved quarterly constant price and new current price GDP estimates, and SUT development.

### Capacity building, dissemination, and next steps
- Cooperation with National Accounts Department staff highlighted; staffing increased in NAS Unit from 8 to 10 (including eight statisticians and two data editors).
- New ANA and expanded QNA bulletins released on November 28, 2014.
- Next TA mission under this project planned for May 4–15, 2015 to assist with:
  - Developing methodology for compiling independent estimates for Household Final Consumption Expenditure.
  - Improving constant price estimates for Exports and Imports of Goods and Services.
- Completed action plan for GDP rebase in Appendix II.

### Project Framework and selected verifiable outcomes (high-level)
- Staffing: Increase NAS Unit statisticians from 8 to 10 — Completed (11/21/2011).
- Training: NAS staff trained on improved source data and compilation techniques — ongoing; training provided during missions and workshops; need to nominate staff for IMF and other NAS courses (target 12/31/2014).
- Data sources: New surveys implemented and coordination improved to address data gaps (target 12/31/2014).
- Rebasing: New base year 2009/10 QGDP series — Completed (11/28/2014).
- Methodology: Improvements to compile QGDP at constant and current prices and to produce GO and IC estimates — Completed (05/31/2014 for several items; further implementations planned).
- Dissemination: QNA released within three months after the reference quarter — Completed; UBOS plans to improve timeliness to two months (target 12/31/2011).
- Release QGDP by activity at one digit ISIC Rev. 4 and updated concepts, sources and methods manual — Completed (11/28/2014).

*Source: cr17298 - Executive Summary*

### 3. Six follow-up missions were undertaken by the MSA during the period 2011

### cr17298 - 3. Six follow-up missions were undertaken by the MSA during the period 2011

### MSA and consultant missions; purpose and outcomes
- Six follow-up missions were undertaken by the MSA during the period 2011 to 2013 to assist with improving data sources and methods, including:
  - compiling agriculture and construction work-in-progress estimates;
  - improved quarterly constant price and new current price gross domestic product (GDP) estimates;
  - supply and use tables (SUT);
  - related training on the compilation methodology and use of source data.
- Four short-term expert missions were undertaken during 2011–2013 to assist with data quality assurance and the development and compilation of the SUT.
- Four additional missions by consultants from Oxford Policy Management assisted with SUT compilation.
- Missions in May and September 2014 by the MSA assisted in finalizing the SUT and 2009/10 benchmark estimates; provided advice on the compilation of the rebased annual and quarterly GDP by economic activity; and made further methodological improvements, including annual and quarterly estimates for public administration, public education, public health, and GDP by expenditure components.
- The current mission was requested by the authorities to assist with finalizing the rebased GDP estimates for dissemination; the mission worked closely with National Accounts Department staff.

*Executive support materials included: an Executive Summary on main findings and an updated Project Framework Summary.*

### Statistics prerequisites, staffing, and funding recommendations
- Data collected: most data needed for SUT and GDP rebasing was eventually collected; main remaining data gaps relate to:
  - detailed international trade in services;
  - detailed product breakdown of IC components by economic activity.
- Integrated Trade in Services Survey has been conducted; results will be available for the next rebasing exercise.
- Benchmark industry production surveys need improvement to collect more detailed IC data.
- Recommendation: for the next GDP rebase (2015), UBOS should secure appropriate budget funding for benchmark surveys and recruit a suitable expert to provide the 40 weeks of TA that will be required.
  - Kenya and Rwanda are cited as good examples of using a single external consultant with support from the AFE MSA, as needed.
- Current NAS Unit staffing: nine staff (eight statisticians and one data editor).
  - Need to increase staff skills development via regional/international NAS courses and training during TA missions.
  - MSA and short-term experts have provided training on compilation practices and better use of indicators and price indices in compiling ANA and QNA.
  - Some staff participated in the two-week AFE NAS training course in Tanzania in February 2012; and the AFE QNA training courses in Uganda in September 2012 and February 2014.
- Additional needs:
  - review and improve survey and data processing timetables;
  - improve data coordination and understanding of NAS requirements within UBOS and with other data providers;
  - establish the recommended NAS Technical Committee (yet to be established).

### Rebased GDP estimates: scope and headline statistics
- Coverage: rebased GDP estimates summarized for 2008/09 to 2013/14; analysis focuses on real growth at constant 2009/10 prices unless stated otherwise.
- Table 1 — Growth Rates by Sector and Total GDP (Constant 2009/10 Prices):
  - Agriculture, forestry and fishing: 2009/10 3.2%; 2010/11 2.9%; 2011/12 1.1%; 2012/13 1.8%; 2013/14 1.5%
  - Industry: 2009/10 7.8%; 2010/11 11.4%; 2011/12 3.1%; 2012/13 4.3%; 2013/14 4.3%
  - Services: 2009/10 5.9%; 2010/11 12.4%; 2011/12 4.9%; 2012/13 4.0%; 2013/14 4.2%
  - Taxes less subsidies on products: 2009/10 1.1%; 2010/11 11.9%; 2011/12 15.5%; 2012/13 0.5%; 2013/14 15.5%
  - Total: 2009/10 5.2%; 2010/11 9.7%; 2011/12 4.4%; 2012/13 3.3%; 2013/14 4.5%
- Headline outcomes:
  - Real GDP growth in 2013/14: 4.5 percent at 2009/10 constant prices (compared to 3.3 percent in 2012/13).
  - Nominal GDP growth in 2013/14: 7.0 percent in current prices (compared to revised 2012/13 growth rate of 7.5 percent).
  - GDP implicit price deflator: increased 2.4 percent in 2013/14 (compared to 4.1 percent in previous year).
- Table 2 — Contribution to GDP (Constant 2009/10 Prices):
  - Agriculture, forestry and fishing: 2008/09 26.7; 2009/10 26.2; 2010/11 24.6; 2011/12 23.8; 2012/13 23.5; 2013/14 22.8
  - Industry: 2008/09 17.7; 2009/10 18.1; 2010/11 18.4; 2011/12 18.2; 2012/13 18.4; 2013/14 18.3
  - Services: 2008/09 48.2; 2009/10 48.5; 2010/11 49.7; 2011/12 49.9; 2012/13 50.3; 2013/14 50.2
  - Taxes less subsidies on products: 2008/09 7.4; 2009/10 7.2; 2010/11 7.3; 2011/12 8.1; 2012/13 7.9; 2013/14 8.7
  - Total: 2008/09 100.0; 2009/10 100.0; 2010/11 100.0; 2011/12 100.0; 2012/13 100.0; 2013/14 100.0
- Sectoral specifics (2013/14):
  - Agriculture GVA: increased 1.5 percent in 2013/14 (constant 2009/10 prices); sector share declined from 26.7 percent in 2008/09 to 22.8 percent in 2013/14.
  - Industry: grew 4.3 percent in 2013/14; share accounted for 18.3 percent in 2013/14 compared to 17.7 percent in 2008/09.
  - Services: grew 4.2 percent in 2013/14; accounted for 50.2 percent of total GDP in 2013/14 (constant 2009/10 prices) compared to 48.2 percent in 2008/09.
  - Taxes less subsidies on products: grew 15.5 percent in 2013/14; accounted for 8.7 percent of GDP in 2013/14 compared to 7.4 percent in 2008/09.
- GDP per capita (2013/14):
  - Estimated GDP per capita in current prices: UGX 2.001 million, up 4.0 percent from previous year; USD 788, up 6.1 percent.
  - In real terms (constant 2009/10 prices): UGX 1.480 million, increased 1.5 percent; USD 730, increased 1.5 percent.
- Revisions to national accounts (rebasing 2002 → 2009/10):
  - Overall level of GDP at current prices increased by an average of 16.5 percent a year,
    - 2008/09: 14.6 percent increase;
    - 2009/10: 17.3 percent increase;
    - 2010/11: 20.4 percent increase;
    - 2011/12: 18.4 percent increase;
    - 2012/13: 14.9 percent increase;
    - 2013/14: 13.1 percent increase.
- Timing and dissemination:
  - A new ANA Bulletin prepared with estimates for 2008/09 to 2013/14 financial years and 2008 to 2013 calendar years, including current and constant 2009/10 price tables, implicit price deflators, contributions to GDP and growth rates by economic activity at 1-digit ISIC Rev. 4 and by expenditure components.
  - New statistical tables for GO and IC by 1-digit ISIC Rev. 4; formal/informal sector production; market/non-market production; monetary/non-monetary production.
  - QNA Bulletin expanded to include quarterly original, seasonally adjusted and trend estimates of GDP and GVA by economic activity at 1-digit ISIC Rev. 4 for all quarters of 2009/10 to 2013/14 (20 quarters).
  - Both bulletins were released on November 28, 2014.

### Methodological improvements and drivers of revisions
- SUT compilation for 2009/10 base year significantly improved coverage, especially informal sector and non-profit institutions.
- Benchmark surveys and studies for 2009/10 SUT were more comprehensive than 2002 benchmark exercise, identifying new products and activities and providing more accurate estimates.
- Implementation of recommendations from 1993 SNA and 2008 SNA update, including:
  - implementing work-in-progress (WIP) methodology for agriculture and construction (replacing at-harvest method for crops);
  - replacing imputed bank charges with allocated financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM);
  - compiling estimates at a more detailed level;
  - compiling separate gross output (GO) and intermediate consumption (IC) estimates;
  - reducing use of fixed IC/GO ratios.
- Use of more representative value and volume indicators and price data.
- Quantified impacts on GDP level:
  - improved methodology for gross trade margins contributed 2.2 percent increase in GDP level for 2009/10;
  - replacing imputed bank service charges with allocated FISIM contributed a further 1.2 percent increase to the new GDP level.
- Rebasing linkage:
  - rebased series were linked with the 2002 series and annual current price estimates and volume indices at one-digit industry level compiled for 1998 to 2007.

### GDP by economic activity — compilation approach and data sources
- All compilation worksheets reviewed and updated using latest indicator and price data, including revised data for 2010/11 up to 2013/14.
  - For economic activity worksheets, nominal and real growth rates, IC/GO ratios at current and constant prices, and implicit price deflators were checked and methodological adjustments made to ensure estimates are within expectations and comparable to other economic indicators.
- Annual estimates are derived by aggregating quarterly estimates, with exception of MOA crops and General Government expenditure data.
- VAT turnover data: detailed VAT turnover data used for several services industries at 2-digit ISIC Rev. 4 level. No VAT turnover data available for 2008; various value and volume indicators and price indices used to compile current price estimates for 2-digit industries in ISIC Sections J, K, L, M, N, R and S.

### Agriculture, forestry and fishing — detailed compilation notes
- Agriculture Crops:
  - WIP methodology adopted in line with 2008 SNA, replacing at-harvest methodology.
  - 2008/09 Uganda Census of Agriculture (UCA) data on area cultivated, harvest, yield rates and crop prices updated to 2009/10 to compile output for main food crops.
  - 2009/10 Uganda National Household Survey (UNHS) consumption expenditure data, Development Authorities procurement data, exports and other sources used to compile GO for other crops.
  - Detailed GO, IC and GVA estimates per acre for major crop types in current prices based on Agriculture Study conducted in 2012 for reference year 2011.
  - ISIC AA – Cash Crops.xls includes coffee, cocoa, cotton, flowers, palm, sugar cane, tea, tobacco, and vanilla. Main source data: Development Authorities procurement and exports. All cash crop production treated as monetary and formal sector activity.
  - ISIC AB – Food Crops.xls includes GO, IC and GVA in current and constant 2009/10 prices for 22 main food crops for Quarter 1 of 2008 onwards, including: maize, millet, sorghum, paddy rice, wheat, other cereals, cassava, Irish potatoes, sweet potatoes, other root crops, beans, cow peas, field peas, pigeon peas, other legumes and pulses, ground nuts, soya beans, sesame, sunflowers, other vegetables, bananas and other fruit.
  - Post-harvest quantities and area cultivated data from MOA available for 17 crops.
  - A small quarterly agriculture survey with annual sample of around 500 farmers conducted for quality assurance; collects quarterly indicator data on output yield rates, inputs and farm gate output prices and purchaser prices for inputs.
  - Extrapolation and price index methods:
    - maize yield rate and change in area used to extrapolate minor cereals;
    - sweet potatoes data used for yams;
    - beans and peas data for other legumes and pulses;
    - composite volume index based on total area cultivated and population used for other fruits and vegetables;
    - 2009/10 farm-gate prices for GO and IC extrapolated using CPI and Construction Services Industry Price Indices (CSI).
  - Monetary/non-monetary breakdowns by crop type use 2009/10 UNHS data on production for own consumption.
    - Non-monetary subsistence component extrapolated using rural population growth rate as proxy.
    - Monetary component derived as residual (total minus non-monetary).
  - All food crop production treated as informal sector activity until large commercial farms identified and production data collected.
- Livestock:
  - Estimates derived using perpetual inventory method (PIM) and WIP methodology in line with 2008 SNA, replacing prior MOA annual-data-based methodology.
  - 2009/10 GO, IC, and GVA for animal production based on updated intake and off-take ratios and benchmark prices from 2009/10 Uganda National Panel Survey (UNPS) and 2008 Livestock Census.
  - Ongoing compilation uses data on live animals sold to abattoirs; prices received by farmers per live animal, carcass weight, meat and offal weight per animal; output price indexes for livestock products and input price indexes.
  - ISIC AC – Animal Production.xls includes production for 10 types of livestock and related products: indigenous cattle, exotic cattle, goats, sheep, pigs, rabbits, camels and equine, chicken, other poultry, bees; and blood; lard, meat, offal and hides and skins from farm slaughter; milk, eggs, manure and honey.
  - Monetary/non-monetary production breakdowns use same methodology as food crops; meat slaughtered on farm treated as secondary output and GO and GVA for farm-produced meat recorded within this industry.
  - All production treated as informal sector activity until large commercial dairy farms or ranches identified and data collected.
- Agriculture Support Services:
  - ISIC AD - Agriculture Support Services.xls benchmark estimates based on data from Non-Profit Institutions Survey (NPIS); this activity was not previously measured.
  - All production treated as monetary and formal sector.
  - Constant price benchmark estimates extrapolated using movement in monetary GO for agriculture crops and animal production.
  - Composite price indices used to reflate constant price GO and IC to current prices; GVA derived as residual.
- Forestry:
  - 2009/10 benchmark estimates derived from UCA, UNPS and UNHS.
  - ISIC AE – Forestry.xls logging benchmark extrapolated using constant price inputs of wood for construction and furniture manufacturing, and exports; CSI timber price index used for deflation/reflation.
  - Firewood consumption by households extrapolated using trend estimates from 2002 Population Census and 2009/10 UNHS.
  - Charcoal household consumption trend between 2005/06 and 2009/10 UNHS adjusted to 2009/10 prices used as volume indicator for constant price GO estimates.
  - Intermediate demand for fuel wood extrapolated using constant price output for manufacturing and accommodation and food services.
  - Combined charcoal and firewood CPI used to reflate fuel wood constant price estimates to current prices.
  - Other forestry products extrapolated using current and constant price movement for all other forestry activities’ production.
  - File includes monetary/non-monetary split. Logging treated as formal sector; all other monetary production treated as informal sector.
- Fishing:
  - 2009/10 benchmark estimates based on 2009/10 UNHS household consumption and external trade data, adjusted in SUT for intermediate demand.
  - ISIC AF – Fishing.xls compiles current and constant price GO by extrapolating benchmark estimates using commodity flow approach: domestic production = domestic consumption + exports − imports.
  - CPI for fresh fish used for GO price index; benchmark IC/GO ratio used to estimate IC; GVA derived as residual.
  - File includes monetary/non-monetary split; all monetary production treated as informal sector production.

### Mining and quarrying — benchmark and extrapolation approach
- Formal sector benchmark estimates based on latest Uganda Business Inquiry (UBI), Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) income tax and other source data; informal sector derived as residual in SUT framework.
- Separate estimates compiled for petroleum, mining and quarrying in ISIC B – Mining and Quarrying.xls.
- Current price GO and constant price GO and IC compiled by extrapolating benchmark estimates using volume indices based on production quantities and value indices based on values (prices × quantities) of mining and quarrying products from the Construction industry file and the Mines Department.

*IMF mission report (cr17298), sections 3–IV as provided.*

### 43. The benchmark IC/GO ratios are used to derive the constant price IC and

### 43. The benchmark IC/GO ratios are used to derive the constant price IC and

### General methodology
- Benchmark IC/GO ratios are used to derive constant price IC; composite IC price indices are used to reflate these estimates to produce current price IC.
- GVA estimates are derived as residuals.
- All production is treated as monetary unless specified otherwise.

### C. Manufacturing
- Benchmark estimates use the Census of Business Establishments (COBE), UBI, and URA income tax data, balanced using the SUT framework.
- Benchmark covers 43 manufacturing activities.
- Extrapolation approach:
  - Constant price GO and IC: extrapolated using quarterly volume indicators based on the Index of Production (IOP), abattoir slaughter data and exports data for tobacco; benchmark IC/GO ratio applied to derive constant price IC.
  - Current price GO: extrapolated by reflating volume indicators using the detailed Manufacturing Producer Price Index (PPI).
  - IC current prices: composite price indices based on the CPI, PPI and implicit price deflators (IPD) for animal production GO and logging GO are used to reflate volume indicators to produce IC value indicators.
- GVA derived as a residual.
- Separate GO, IC and GVA estimates at current and constant 2009/10 prices are compiled for each of the 43 activities, including:
  - total level;
  - monetary formal and informal sectors;
  - non-monetary production for own final use, where appropriate.

### D. Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Supply
- GVA estimated as the sum of GVA of the distributor and domestic generating companies selling electricity to the distributor.
- Benchmark GO and IC based on URA 2009/10 income tax data and extrapolated using the volume of electricity distributed and the benchmark IC/GO ratio.
- Current prices:
  - GO extrapolated using a value index (inflating the volume index using the CPI for electricity and adjusted to 2009/10 = 100).
- All production treated as monetary formal sector.

### E. Water Supply, Sewerage and Waste Management Activities
- Constant price: benchmark GO and IC for the formal sector extrapolated using the volume of water distributed by the National Water Supply Company (NWSC) and the benchmark IC/GO ratio; GVA derived as a residual.
- Same indicator used to extrapolate informal sector monetary GO; informal sector IC/GO ratio applied to derive IC.
- Non-monetary component: trend growth rate of households collecting their own water between the 2005/06 and the 2009/10 UNHS used to extrapolate benchmark GO and GVA. There is no IC for non-monetary water collection by households, only GVA (labor).
- Current prices: CPI water charges index used to reflate volume indices to produce value indices where 2009/10 = 100; these indices used to extrapolate the three benchmark GO estimates.

### F. Construction
- WIP methodology used to compile annual and quarterly construction industry production and GFCF at current and constant 2009/10 prices.
- Benchmark 2009/10 estimates developed using URA income tax data, 2009/10 UNHS data for informal sector and construction services price index weights, adjusted with SUT framework.
- Extrapolation uses volume and value indices for construction materials; commodity flow approach for indices of use of various materials.
- Source data for volume indicators: IOP and Mines Department for domestic production; deflated imports and exports data from URA external trade data and Informal Cross Border Trade Survey (ICBTS).
- Traditional dwellings:
  - Benchmark from 2009/10 UNHS housing characteristics and construction materials prices.
  - Volume indicator based on trend growth rate in number of traditional dwellings between the 2002 Population Census and 2009/10 UNHS, adjusted for dwelling replacements.
- URA external trade data aggregated into 13 main groups: timber, paint, plastic products, bricks and tiles, cement, concrete articles, steel bars, roofing sheets, other iron and steel products, electrical wire and cable, aggregate, lime, bitumen.
- Construction material indicators lagged one quarter to account for timing differences between supply and use.
- Current price construction materials: external trade data deflated, domestic production volumes adjusted to current values using various CSI prices.
- Benchmark ratios applied to constant price material inputs to derive other IC components (e.g., electricity, fuel, and other services) and GVA; relevant price indices used to reflate IC components and GVA.
- Separate estimates at current and constant 2009/10 prices for:
  - total construction activity;
  - formal and informal sectors;
  - non-monetary production (traditional dwelling construction).

### G. Motor Vehicle Sales and Repairs, and Other Wholesale and Retail Trade
- Motor vehicle sales and repairs:
  - Benchmarks extrapolated using value and volume indices compiled using imports data.
  - Weighted composite volume indicator based on motor registration data used to extrapolate repairs GO to constant price GO.
  - Reflated using CPI for vehicle maintenance to derive current price GO.
  - Benchmark IC/GO ratio used to derive constant price IC; composite IC price index used to reflate to current prices; GVA derived as residual.
  - Separate formal and informal sector estimates compiled.
- Wholesale and retail trade:
  - Gross margins balanced in SUT and UBI IC/GO ratios used for total, formal and informal GO and IC benchmarks.
  - Benchmarks extrapolated using 16 value and volume indices derived from monetary GO for agriculture, forestry, fishing, mining and quarrying and manufacturing, and imports data.
  - Benchmark IC/GO ratio used to derive constant price IC; composite IC price index used to reflate to current prices; GVA derived as residual.
  - Dummy indicator data for cash crops and mining were replaced by actual data during the mission.

### H. Transport and Storage
- Separate formal and informal sector estimates compiled for each transport and storage activity.
- Rail transport: quarterly financial data used for current price estimates; volume indicator based on net ton-kilometers for constant price estimates.
- Road passenger transport:
  - Constant price GO and IC: extrapolated using weighted composite passenger volume index (vehicle registration and tourist arrivals) and benchmark IC/GO ratio.
  - Current price GO and IC: derived by reflating constant price series using composite price indexes (CPI bus and taxi fares for GO; CPI petrol, maintenance and other services for IC).
  - GVA derived as residual.
- Road freight transport:
  - Constant price GO and IC: extrapolated using weighted composite freight volume index (vehicle registration, diesel sales and constant price trade margins) and benchmark IC/GO ratio.
  - Current price GO and IC: reflated using composite price indexes (CPI transport for GO; CPI diesel, maintenance and other services for IC).
  - GVA derived as residual.
- Water transport:
  - Constant price GO and IC: extrapolated using rural population growth rate as proxy and benchmark IC/GO ratio.
  - Current price GO and IC: CPI transport fares and a composite IC price index used to produce value indices.
  - GVA derived as residual.
- Air transport:
  - Current price GO: extrapolated using a value index based on VAT turnover; current price estimates deflated using transport fares CPI to obtain constant price series.
  - Benchmark IC/GO ratio applied to constant price GO for constant price IC; current price IC from reflating constant price IC with composite IC price index.
  - GVA derived as residual.
- Warehousing and support activities:
  - Constant price GO and IC: extrapolated using weighted composite volume index (freight, passenger and mail volumes) and benchmark IC/GO ratio.
  - Current price GO and IC: composite GO price index (CPI rents and other services) and composite IC price index used to produce value indices.
  - GVA derived as residual.
- Postal and courier services:
  - Constant price GO and IC: extrapolated using composite volume index (mail cargo and postal volume indicators) and benchmark IC/GO ratio.
  - Current price GO and IC: GO price index (CPI transport fares) and composite IC price index used to produce value indices.
  - GVA to be derived as residuals.

### I. Accommodation and Food Service Activities
- Accommodation services:
  - Constant price GO and IC: extrapolated using composite volume index based on trend constant price growth rate between 2005/06 and 2009/10 UNHS household consumption expenditure, tourists and constant price IC for client industries; benchmark IC/GO ratio applied.
  - Current price GO and IC: GO price index (CPI accommodation/rents) and composite IC price index used to produce value indices.
  - GVA derived as residual.
- Food and beverage service activities:
  - Constant price GO and IC: extrapolated using similar composite volume index (2005/06 to 2009/10 UNHS trend, tourists, client industries IC) and benchmark IC/GO ratio.
  - Current price GO and IC: GO price index (CPI meals away/restaurants) and composite IC price index used to produce value indices.
  - GVA derived as residual.

### J. Information and Communication
- Telecommunications:
  - Constant price GO: extrapolated using volume indices based on talk time within network, across networks, international, fixed line; internet usage and connections.
  - Constant price IC: benchmark IC/GO ratio applied to GO estimates.
  - Current price GO: value indices derived by reflating volume indices using CPI for various telecommunication charges.
  - Current price IC: composite IC price index used to reflate constant price IC.
  - GVA derived as residual.
- Publishing:
  - Household consumption on books and magazines accounts for more than 90 percent of benchmark GO.
  - Constant price GO: extrapolated using trend constant price growth rate between UNHS 2005/06 and 2009/10 household consumption expenditure.
  - Constant price IC: benchmark IC/GO ratio applied; GVA derived as residual.
  - Current price GO: value index using CPI for text books and newspapers to reflate volume index.
  - Current price IC: composite IC price index used to reflate constant price IC; GVA derived as residual.
- Audio-visual production and distribution, broadcasting and programming, computer and information services:
  - No comprehensive source data for ongoing estimation.
  - Current price GO: value indices based on VAT turnover used to extrapolate benchmark GO.
  - Constant price GO: value indices converted to volume indices using services CPI.
  - Constant price IC: benchmark IC/GO ratios applied.
  - Current price IC: composite IC price indices used to construct IC value indices.
  - GVA derived as residuals.

### K. Financial and Insurance Activities
- Main data sources: Bank of Uganda (BOU) and commercial banks.
- BOU GO estimates derived using cost approach (adding IC and GVA) for both current and constant prices.
  - Constant price estimates derived by deflating current price estimates using:
    - general CPI for compensation of employees;
    - equipment hire CSI for consumption of fixed capital;
    - services CPI for IC.
- FISIM:
  - Current price FISIM derived using reported interest payable and receivable and a weighted average interest rate applied to value of deposits and loans.
  - Constant price FISIM: extrapolated using volume indices for deposits and loans deflated by general CPI; other revenue deflated using services CPI.
  - Reported data used for current price IC for financial intermediaries; current price GVA derived as residual.
  - Benchmark 2009/10 IC/GO ratios applied to constant price GO to compile constant price IC; constant price GVA derived as residual.
  - FISIM on deposits and loans fully allocated to IC of each economic activity and relevant expenditure component; no explicit deduction for FISIM to sum of GVA in deriving GDP.
- Other financial services, insurance, pension funds:
  - Separate worksheets with benchmarks and VAT turnover indicators used.
  - Benchmark 2009/10 IC/GO ratios applied to constant price GO; constant price GVA derived as residual.
  - Composite IC price indices used to reflate constant price IC to current price IC; current price GVA derived as residual.

### L. Real Estate Activities
- Actual and imputed rents:
  - Constant price GO: extrapolated using volume indices based on trend constant price growth rate between 2005/06 and 2009/10 UNHS household consumption expenditure.
  - Constant price IC: benchmark IC/GO ratio applied; GVA derived as residual.
  - Current price GO: GO value index using CPI rents to reflate volume index.
  - Current price IC: IC value index using CPI repairs and maintenance to reflate volume index.
  - GVA derived as residual.
- Other real estate activities:
  - Current price GO: value index based on VAT turnover.
  - Constant price GO: value index converted to volume index using services CPI.
  - Constant price IC: benchmark IC/GO ratio applied; GVA derived as residual.
  - Current price IC: composite IC price index used to compile IC value index; GVA derived as residual.

### M. Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities
- Constant price GO: extrapolated using composite volume indices based on constant price output of client industries and deflated VAT turnover data.
- Current price GO: composite value indices based on VAT turnover and reflated constant price output of client industries using services CPI.
- Constant price IC: benchmark IC/GO ratios applied.
- Current price IC: composite IC price indices used to develop IC value indices.
- GVA derived as residual.

*Source: cr17298 - 43. The benchmark IC/GO ratios are used to derive the constant price IC and*

### 73. Composite volume indices based on constant price output of client industries

### 73. Composite volume indices based on constant price output of client industries

### Methodology for extrapolating benchmark GO, IC and GVA estimates (general)
- Composite volume indices based on constant price output of client industries and deflated VAT turnover data are used to extrapolate the benchmark GO estimates to derive constant price GO estimates.
- Composite value indices based on VAT turnover and reflated constant price output of client industries using the services CPI are used to extrapolate the benchmark GO estimates to derive current price GO estimates.
- The benchmark IC/GO ratios is applied to compile the constant price IC estimates.
- Composite IC price indices are used to develop the IC value indices to compile the current price IC estimates.
- GVA estimates are derived as residuals.

### O. Public Administration; Compulsory Social Security Activities
- Annual current price estimates in the ISIC O – Public Administration.xls file are based on more complete General Government finance data.
- Worksheets integrate annual fiscal year benchmarks with quarterly GO, IC and GVA series.
- Quarterly current price estimates are derived by extrapolating annual benchmarks using quarterly Central Government IC and GVA data to produce quarterly and calendar year estimates.
- CPI for services is used as a proxy price deflator for quarterly GVA estimates.
- Benchmark GVA/GO ratio is applied to derive quarterly constant price GO estimates; IC estimates derived as residuals.
- Composite IC price index is used to reflate quarterly constant price IC to derive current price IC estimates.
- Quarterly current price GVA and IC estimates are summed to derive the current price GO estimate.
- Fiscal and calendar year constant price estimates are derived by summing the relevant quarters’ estimates.

### P. Education
- Methodology for public administration is applied to public education GO, IC and GVA by level of education (pre-primary and primary education; secondary and technical education; higher education; other education) in ISIC P – Education.xls.
- Worksheets integrate annual fiscal year benchmarks with quarterly GO, IC and GVA series; calendar year estimates are the sum of benchmarked quarterly series.
- Private education:
  - Quarterly constant price trend growth rate in household consumption expenditure on education fees between the 2005/06 and 2009/10 UNHS is used to derive constant price GO estimates.
  - Benchmark IC/GO ratio is used to derive constant price IC estimates.
  - Constant price GO estimates are reflated using CPI education fees by level of education to develop value indices to extrapolate benchmark GO estimates to compile current price GO estimates.
  - Composite IC price index is used to reflate constant price IC estimates to develop value indices to extrapolate benchmark IC estimates to compile current price IC estimates.
  - GVA estimates are derived as residuals.

### Q. Human Health and Social Work Activities
- Public health: methodology for public administration is applied; worksheets integrate annual fiscal year benchmarks with quarterly GO, IC and GVA series; calendar year estimates use sum of benchmarked quarterly series.
- Private health:
  - Quarterly constant price trend growth rate in household consumption expenditure on doctor consultation and hospital services fees between the 2005/06 and 2009/10 UNHS is used to derive constant price GO estimates.
  - Benchmark IC/GO ratio is used to derive constant price IC estimate.
  - Constant price GO estimates are reflated using CPI for medical charges to develop value indices to extrapolate benchmark GO estimates to compile current price GO estimates.
  - Composite IC price index is used to reflate constant price IC estimates to develop value indices to extrapolate benchmark IC estimates to compile current price IC estimates.
  - GVA estimates are derived as residuals.
- Social work activities:
  - Benchmark GO estimates are extrapolated to compile constant price GO estimates using a composite volume index based on various groups of client populations (e.g., disabled persons, orphans, elderly) from Demographic Health Surveys for 2006 and 2011 with a quarterly trend growth rate of around 0.47 percent.
  - Benchmark IC/GO ratio is used to derive constant price IC estimate.
  - Constant price GO estimates reflated using services CPI to develop value indices to extrapolate benchmark GO estimates to compile current price GO estimates.
  - Composite IC price index used similarly for IC estimates.
  - GVA estimates derived as residuals.

### R. Arts, Entertainment and Recreation
- Composite volume indices based on population and tourist numbers, and deflated VAT turnover data are used to extrapolate benchmark GO estimates to derive constant price GO estimates in ISIC R - Arts, Entertainment and Recreation.xls.
- Composite value indices derived by reflating volume indices using services CPI are used to extrapolate benchmark GO estimates to compile current price GO estimates.
- Value indices are converted to volume indices using CPI for recreation services and other services to derive constant price GO estimates.
- Benchmark IC/GO ratios applied to compile constant price IC estimates; GVA derived as residuals.
- Composite IC price indices are used to develop IC value indices to compile current price IC estimates.

### S. Other Service Activities
- Composite volume indices based on population and tourist numbers, and deflated VAT turnover data are used to extrapolate benchmark GO estimates to derive constant price GO estimates in ISIC S – Other Service Activities.xls.
- Composite value indices reflated using services CPI are used to extrapolate benchmark GO estimates to compile current price GO estimates.
- Benchmark IC/GO ratio is used to derive constant price IC estimate.
- Constant price GO estimates reflated using CPI for other services to develop value indices to extrapolate benchmark GO estimates to compile current price GO estimates.
- Composite IC price index is used to reflate constant price IC estimates to develop a value index to extrapolate benchmark IC estimates to compile current price IC estimates.
- GVA estimates are derived as residuals.

### T. Activities of Households as Employers
- ISIC T – Activities of Households as Employers.xls file includes final benchmark estimates and should be updated for latest periods.
- Benchmark GO and GVA estimates for domestic staff in urban and rural households are extrapolated using quarterly trend growth rates in urban and rural household formation between the 2005/06 and 2009/10 UNHS to derive constant price GO estimate.
- This activity does not have IC, only GVA (i.e., labor).
- Constant price GO and GVA estimates are reflated using CPI for other services to develop value indices to extrapolate the benchmark estimates to compile current price estimates.

### U. Taxes less Subsidies on Products
- Current price estimates are compiled from monthly URA data provided for taxes on products.
- Annual methodology improved by using deflated import values (or quantity revaluation of imports using 2009/10 average prices) as a volume indicator to extrapolate the benchmark estimate for import duties and VAT at a disaggregated level.
- For excise taxes on selected imports (e.g., alcohol, fuel and tobacco): where imports are homogeneous use quantities imported as volume indicators; otherwise use deflated import values method.
- For taxes on domestic products, the constant price monetary GO estimate for relevant goods and services subject to excise or VAT is used.
- There are currently no subsides on products.

### V. GDP BY EXPENDITURE — Improvements and methods
- Annual methodology for compiling GDP by expenditure has been improved and linked to the new quarterly methodology for expenditure components other than for Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HFCE).
- Estimates rebased from 2002 to 2009/10 prices.

Subcomponents:
- A. Government Final Consumption Expenditure
  - Quarterly current price value and constant price value indicators for Government FCE are derived by deducting quarterly Government sales revenue from Government output estimates.
  - Indicators used to extrapolate 2009/10 benchmark estimates of Government FCE to compile annual and quarterly estimates.
  - Coverage expanded to full coverage of General Government expenditure.
- B. Final Consumption Expenditure of NPISH
  - Coverage expanded to include FCE of Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households (NPISH).
  - These estimates compiled by extrapolating 2009/10 benchmark FCE estimates using quarterly current and constant price output of NPISH activities (Agriculture Support Services; Education; Human Health and Social Work; Arts, Entertainment and recreation; Services of Membership Organizations).
- C. Household Final Consumption Expenditure
  - HFCE estimates still derived as a residual and include any errors and omissions in other expenditure components and GDP by economic activity.
  - Development of independent estimates for HFCE expected to be undertaken during 2015.
- D. Gross Fixed Capital Formation
  - Coverage expanded to include improved estimates of biological assets; new research and development; and mineral exploration estimates.
  - WIP compilation methodology used for biological assets and construction GFCF; commodity flow approach used for durable equipment and machinery.
  - Estimates for research and development and mineral exploration derived by extrapolating 2009/10 benchmark GFCF estimates using output for Mining and Quarrying and scientific research and development.
- E. Changes in Inventories
  - Significant scope remains to improve coverage; current methodology only estimates changes in biological assets.
- F. Acquisitions less Disposals of Valuables
  - Imports of precious metals and stones, antiques and collectibles are used to extrapolate 2009/10 benchmark estimate to derive current price estimates.
  - General CPI used to deflate current price estimates to derive constant price estimates.
- G. Exports and Imports of Goods and Services
  - No methodological changes other than rebasing from 2002 to 2009/10.
  - Uganda Revenue Authority external trade data and Bank of Uganda balance of payments (BOP) data used to compile current price estimates.
  - Goods estimates deflated using unit prices; composite deflators used for services (including trading partner inflation rates and USD exchange rate for Services imports).
  - Further improvements expected during 2015.

### Appendix I and II highlights
- APPENDIX I contains rebased GDP estimates tables: Table 1 (current prices), Table 2 (constant 2009/10 prices), Table 3 (GDP by Expenditure at current prices), Table 4 (GDP by Expenditure at constant 2009/10 prices).
- APPENDIX II: Action plan for the SUT/GDP rebase sets objectives, verifiable indicators, completion dates and assumptions for compiling SUT and rebasing NAS to 2009/10.
  - Objective: Compile SUT and rebase GDP estimates to 2009/10. Verifiable indicator: SUT compiled and GDP estimates rebased to 2009/10. Completion Date: 11/28/2014.
  - Selected activities and completion dates (Priority Scale: H - High, M - Medium, O - Other):
    - Improve institutional infrastructure and operational capacity to compile NAS. Completion Date: 06/30/2014.
    - Improve data reporting enforcement procedures for business surveys. Completion Date: 06/30/2014.
    - Build technical capacity of NAS compilers. Completion Date: 06/30/2014.
    - Secure additional TA. Completion Date: 12/31/2011.
    - Ensure adequate staff and resources redeployed. Completion Date: 12/31/2013. Status: Completed.
    - Strengthen project management for SUT/rebase. Completion Date: 12/31/2010. Status: Implemented.
    - Establish NAS Technical Committee. Completion Date: 11/28/2014. Status: Delayed. To be established by MES Director.
    - Ensure appropriate source data are available. Completion Date: 11/30/2012.
    - Data extraction, quality assurance and mapping tasks for multiple data sources with various completion dates (examples):
      - Agriculture Census 2008/09: 05/31/2013. Status: Completed.
      - Livestock Census 2008: 05/31/2013. Status: Completed.
      - 2009/10 UNHS: 06/30/2013. Status: Completed.
      - 2009/10 NPIS: 11/16/2012. Status: Completed.
      - 2009/10 ITSS: 11/02/2012. Status: Conducted, results not yet available.
      - Business register data: 06/30/2013. Status: Completed.
      - International Merchandise Trade Statistics for 2009/10: 05/31/2013. Status: Completed.
      - VAT and income tax data for 2009/10: 06/30/2013. Status: Completed but not used directly in SUT.
    - Compile the SUT and produce benchmark estimates and rebase the NAS. Completion Date: 11/28/2014. Status: Completed.
    - Redevelop the NAS compilation system. Completion Date: 09/30/2014. Status: Completed.
    - Linking of the 1997/98, 2002 and 2009/10 series. Completion Date: 11/28/2014. Status: Completed.
    - Improve dissemination of NAS. Completion Date: 11/28/2014. Status: Completed. Public release of QNA within three months after the reference quarter targeted; UBOS plan to improve timeliness to two months.
    - Update Concepts, Sources and Methods Manual. Completion Date: 11/28/2014. Status: Completed. Methodology included in ANA Bulletin.

*Source: cr17298 - 73. Composite volume indices based on constant price output of client industries (IMF country report text).*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2017/cr17298.pdf_