## 1bwaea2019001 - Section 1 ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [1bwaea2019001 - Section 1](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2019/1bwaea2019001.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/cr/2019/1bwaea2019001.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/cr/2019/1bwaea2019001.pdf.json) --- ### Summary of mission outcomes and priority recommendations - Mission: IMF AFS technical assistance (TA) mission to Statistics Botswana (SB) during February 25–March 8, 2019. - Purpose: Assist SB improve quality of national accounts statistics and support the rebasing of the annual national accounts to base year 2016. - Key findings: - Business listing exercise identified 14,452 establishments (excluding branches). - Botswana United Revenue Service (BURS) has 25,396 active taxpayers on its list. - Economic census response: 3,145 out of 14,452 establishments. - Current planned release date for rebased national accounts: end of March 2020 (compilation including SUTs largely complete by December 2019). - Mission assessment: the March 2020 release date is unrealistic; a full rebase including SUTs typically takes at least two years. - Priority recommendations (Table 1): - By May 2019: Determine the statistical frame and weights for the economic survey. Responsible: SB. - By June 2019: Undertake additional specialized surveys to collect missing product data. Responsible: SB. - Immediate recommended actions: - SB to determine the statistical frame and weights for the economic survey. - SB to commence compilation of aggregates that do not rely on the economic survey. - SB to create the NADABAS datasets when compilation data become available. ### Annual national accounts rebase - Current status: - Rebase to base year 2016 underway. - Economic census commenced in 2016; business listing (phase 1) produced 14,452 establishments; economic census (phase 2) conducted in 2017 produced only 3,145 responses. - Identified problems and implications: - Low response rate likely insufficient for reasonable results for some industries. - Mail-out strategy was a significant contributor to low response. - SB supplemented frame with approximately 500 large establishments identified from large taxpayer unit and other BURS offices, but did not initially reconcile fully with taxpayer list. - Reconciliation with BURS revealed 25,396 active taxpayers; SB needs to reconcile lists to determine actual business frame. - Until frame and response coverage are reconciled, grossing up factors and GVA estimates (the basis for GDP(P)) cannot be reliably determined. - Data availability and compilation priorities: - Available: Multi-Topic Household Survey (MTHS), Agriculture Survey, trade data, rebased CPI for deflation. - Administrative-data-based industries that can commence compilation: Finance and Insurance, Public Administration, Health and Education. - Detailed component compilation to follow when additional data become available. - Recommended actions: - SB to determine the statistical frame and weights and reconcile with the taxpayer list. - SB to follow up (visits, administrative data, financial statements, possible imputation) to improve coverage and response. - SB to begin compiling aggregates not dependent on the economic census. - SB to create NADABAS datasets once compilation data are available. ### Supply and Use Tables (SUTs) - Rationale: - SUTs enable balancing of the measures of GDP and produce useful ratios (e.g., input-output ratios) used in compiling GVA. - Classification work: - AfDB consultant developed proposed industry and product classifications. - SB and mission reviewed, mapped to international standards, revised both classifications and finalized construction decisions; further changes remain possible depending on available data. - Data gaps: - SUTs require detailed product-level data not available administratively; economic survey should capture these data. - Identified need for specialized follow-up surveys for certain industries: - Trade services: sales and purchases amounts for major products sold were not captured. - Transport, construction, and manufacturing industries: require further surveys. - Timing: - Mission indicated completion of SUTs takes at least three months. - SB may release the rebase without SUTs (possible time savings) but this is not desirable; if omitted, SUTs should be prepared for the next rebase. - Recommended actions: - SB to decide whether SUTs will be included in the rebase and incorporate this decision into the release date planning. - SB to undertake specialized industry surveys to collect required product-level data. ### Strategic issues - Timeline and resource assessment: - Current release target: end of March 2020; mission considers this unrealistic. - Typical rebase with SUTs at a similar point would take at least two years, possibly into the third year depending on resources and data quality. - Workplan tasks: rebase GDP by production and expenditure; review/update ongoing compilation; compile and balance SUTs; recompile quarterly estimates; backcast series. - Two options presented to management: with SUTs and without SUTs. - Staffing: - Upstaffing could assist only if staff are internal SB resources familiar with national accounts; external recruits would require intensive training which is time-consuming. - Two temporary staff have been with the national accounts team for approximately 18 months and demonstrated good understanding; recommendation that they remain for at least the duration of the rebase and be considered for permanent positions given low resource levels. - Recommended actions: - SB management to reconsider the release date for the rebased national accounts and explicitly include SUT compilation in deliberations. - SB to retain the two temporary national accounts staff for the duration of the rebase at minimum. ### Detailed technical assessment and recommendations (Results Based Framework excerpts) - Objective: Strengthen compilation and dissemination of macroeconomic and financial statistics using internationally accepted statistical standards (2008 SNA). - Key milestones and target completion dates (as presented in Table 2): - Assessment of deviations to the SNA 2008 and relevant changes needed: March 29, 2019 (Complete). - Statistical frame and weights determined and applied to economic survey: May 31, 2019. - Compilation of rebased GDP by production estimates: December 31, 2019. - Compilation of rebased GDP by expenditure estimates: January 31, 2020. - SUT populated and balanced: June 30, 2020. - Dissemination of rebased GDP estimates: To be determined. - Review quarterly GDP methodologies and data sources: September 30, 2020 (ongoing; to be undertaken as part of the rebasing exercise). - Dissemination of revised quarterly GDP estimates based on rebased annual national accounts: September 30, 2020. ### A. Simple Method for Estimating FISIM - Context and guidance: - Using reference rates to determine level and allocation of Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured (FISIM) is theoretically attractive and expected by frameworks like the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework. - Practical measurement is not straightforward; allocation is highly sensitive to the choice of reference rate, with unpredictable results when rates are varying. - In many smaller developing countries, a service-free, risk-free, market-determined reference rate may not be observable (e.g., inter-bank market small or unrepresentative, or rates are artificial/controlled). - Except where the financial services industry is dominant (e.g., small "off-shore" tax haven), complexities in FISIM measurement typically make little difference to the level of GDP for low-income countries. ### FISIM reference rate and output calculation (Section 2) - Definitions: - yL = stock of loans - yD = stock of deposits - rL = rate on Loans - rD = rate on Deposits - Reference rate: - rr = (rL + rD)/2 - Output of FISIM: - Output of FISIM = (rL - rr) yL + (rr - rD) yD - Notes: - The 2008 SNA advises against this approach, but it is often used and gives sensible results in cases where the reference rate is either unavailable or gives unsuitable results. - The required data are readily available from the banks' profit and loss accounts. ### Allocation and data requirements - Allocation to sectors and activities will require additional data, such as on the distribution of lending across activities. - It will be important to get data for the loans and deposits of the household sector, which are usually available. - By convention, government could be exempt from such allocation. ### Officials Met During the Mission - Dr. Burton Mguni — Statistics Botswana (Statistician General) — bmguni@statsbots.org.bw - Malebogo Kerekang — Statistics Botswana (Deputy Statistician General) — mkerekang@statsbots.org.bw - Boitumelo Matlhaga — Statistics Botswana (Director of Economic Statistics) — bmatlhaga@statsbots.gov.au - Ketso Makhumalo — Statistics Botswana — kmakhumalo@statsbots.org.bw - Lekoko Simako — Statistics Botswana — lsimako@statsbots.org.bw - Winsten Kabo — Statistics Botswana — wkabo@statsbots.org.bw - Chandler Madisa — Statistics Botswana — chmadisa@statsbots.org.bw - Boitumelo Kobua — Statistics Botswana — bkobua@statsbots.org.bw - Phemelo Ntwayapelo — Statistics Botswana — pntwayapelo@statsbots.gov.bw - Godiraone Gaolaolwe — Statistics Botswana — ggaolaolwe@statsbots.org.bw - Michael Andina — Statistics Botswana — mandina@statsbots.org.bw - Koontse Mokgwathi — Statistics Botswana — knmokgwathi@statsbots.org.bw - Temba Sibanda — Statistics Botswana — tsibanda@statsbots.org.bw - Ipuseng Zambo — Statistics Botswana — izambo@statsbots.org.bw - Mr. Jan Redeby — AfDB, Consultant — jan@redeby.co.is; redeby@gmail.com - Thapelo Maruatona — Statistics Botswana — tmaruatona@statsbots.org.bw - Phetogo Zambezi — Statistics Botswana — pgopolang@statsbots.org.bw - Jimmy George — Statistics Botswana — jgeorge@statsbots.org.bw *Prepared by Donna Grcman; IMF Country Report No. 19/149 — BOTSWANA: TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REPORT — REPORT ON THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS MISSION (February 25–March 8, 2019).* ### Section 1 ### 1bwaea2019001 - Section 1 ### Summary of mission outcomes and priority recommendations - Mission: IMF AFS technical assistance (TA) mission to Statistics Botswana (SB) during February 25–March 8, 2019. - Purpose: Assist SB improve quality of national accounts statistics and support the rebasing of the annual national accounts to base year 2016. - Key findings: - Business listing exercise identified 14,452 establishments (excluding branches). - Botswana United Revenue Service (BURS) has 25,396 active taxpayers on its list. - Economic census response: 3,145 out of 14,452 establishments. - Current planned release date for rebased national accounts: end of March 2020 (compilation including SUTs largely complete by December 2019). - Mission assessment: the March 2020 release date is unrealistic; a full rebase including SUTs typically takes at least two years. - Priority recommendations (Table 1): - By May 2019: Determine the statistical frame and weights for the economic survey. Responsible: SB. - By June 2019: Undertake additional specialized surveys to collect missing product data. Responsible: SB. - Immediate recommended actions: - SB to determine the statistical frame and weights for the economic survey. - SB to commence compilation of aggregates that do not rely on the economic survey. - SB to create the NADABAS datasets when compilation data become available. ### Annual national accounts rebase - Current status: - Rebase to base year 2016 underway. - Economic census commenced in 2016; business listing (phase 1) produced 14,452 establishments; economic census (phase 2) conducted in 2017 produced only 3,145 responses. - Identified problems and implications: - Low response rate likely insufficient for reasonable results for some industries. - Mail-out strategy was a significant contributor to low response. - SB supplemented frame with approximately 500 large establishments identified from large taxpayer unit and other BURS offices, but did not initially reconcile fully with taxpayer list. - Reconciliation with BURS revealed 25,396 active taxpayers; SB needs to reconcile lists to determine actual business frame. - Until frame and response coverage are reconciled, grossing up factors and GVA estimates (the basis for GDP(P)) cannot be reliably determined. - Data availability and compilation priorities: - Available: Multi-Topic Household Survey (MTHS), Agriculture Survey, trade data, rebased CPI for deflation. - Administrative-data-based industries that can commence compilation: Finance and Insurance, Public Administration, Health and Education. - Detailed component compilation to follow when additional data become available. - Recommended actions: - SB to determine the statistical frame and weights and reconcile with the taxpayer list. - SB to follow up (visits, administrative data, financial statements, possible imputation) to improve coverage and response. - SB to begin compiling aggregates not dependent on the economic census. - SB to create NADABAS datasets once compilation data are available. ### Supply and Use Tables (SUTs) - Rationale: - SUTs enable balancing of the measures of GDP and produce useful ratios (e.g., input-output ratios) used in compiling GVA. - Classification work: - AfDB consultant developed proposed industry and product classifications. - SB and mission reviewed, mapped to international standards, revised both classifications and finalized construction decisions; further changes remain possible depending on available data. - Data gaps: - SUTs require detailed product-level data not available administratively; economic survey should capture these data. - Identified need for specialized follow-up surveys for certain industries: - Trade services: sales and purchases amounts for major products sold were not captured. - Transport, construction, and manufacturing industries: require further surveys. - Timing: - Mission indicated completion of SUTs takes at least three months. - SB may release the rebase without SUTs (possible time savings) but this is not desirable; if omitted, SUTs should be prepared for the next rebase. - Recommended actions: - SB to decide whether SUTs will be included in the rebase and incorporate this decision into the release date planning. - SB to undertake specialized industry surveys to collect required product-level data. ### Strategic issues - Timeline and resource assessment: - Current release target: end of March 2020; mission considers this unrealistic. - Typical rebase with SUTs at a similar point would take at least two years, possibly into the third year depending on resources and data quality. - Workplan tasks: rebase GDP by production and expenditure; review/update ongoing compilation; compile and balance SUTs; recompile quarterly estimates; backcast series. - Two options presented to management: with SUTs and without SUTs. - Staffing: - Upstaffing could assist only if staff are internal SB resources familiar with national accounts; external recruits would require intensive training which is time-consuming. - Two temporary staff have been with the national accounts team for approximately 18 months and demonstrated good understanding; recommendation that they remain for at least the duration of the rebase and be considered for permanent positions given low resource levels. - Recommended actions: - SB management to reconsider the release date for the rebased national accounts and explicitly include SUT compilation in deliberations. - SB to retain the two temporary national accounts staff for the duration of the rebase at minimum. ### Detailed technical assessment and recommendations (Results Based Framework excerpts) - Objective: Strengthen compilation and dissemination of macroeconomic and financial statistics using internationally accepted statistical standards (2008 SNA). - Key milestones and target completion dates (as presented in Table 2): - Assessment of deviations to the SNA 2008 and relevant changes needed: March 29, 2019 (Complete). - Statistical frame and weights determined and applied to economic survey: May 31, 2019. - Compilation of rebased GDP by production estimates: December 31, 2019. - Compilation of rebased GDP by expenditure estimates: January 31, 2020. - SUT populated and balanced: June 30, 2020. - Dissemination of rebased GDP estimates: To be determined. - Review quarterly GDP methodologies and data sources: September 30, 2020 (ongoing; to be undertaken as part of the rebasing exercise). - Dissemination of revised quarterly GDP estimates based on rebased annual national accounts: September 30, 2020. ### A. Simple Method for Estimating FISIM - Context and guidance: - Using reference rates to determine level and allocation of Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured (FISIM) is theoretically attractive and expected by frameworks like the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework. - Practical measurement is not straightforward; allocation is highly sensitive to the choice of reference rate, with unpredictable results when rates are varying. - In many smaller developing countries, a service-free, risk-free, market-determined reference rate may not be observable (e.g., inter-bank market small or unrepresentative, or rates are artificial/controlled). - Except where the financial services industry is dominant (e.g., small "off-shore" tax haven), complexities in FISIM measurement typically make little difference to the level of GDP for low-income countries. *Prepared by Donna Grcman; IMF Country Report No. 19/149 — BOTSWANA: TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REPORT — REPORT ON THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS MISSION (February 25–March 8, 2019).* ### Section 2 ### 1bwaea2019001 - Section 2 ### FISIM reference rate and output calculation - Definitions: - yL = stock of loans - yD = stock of deposits - rL = rate on Loans - rD = rate on Deposits - Reference rate: - rr = (rL + rD)/2 - Output of FISIM: - Output of FISIM = (rL - rr) yL + (rr - rD) yD - Notes: - The 2008 SNA advises against this approach, but it is often used and gives sensible results in cases where the reference rate is either unavailable or gives unsuitable results. - The required data are readily available from the banks' profit and loss accounts. ### Allocation and data requirements - Allocation to sectors and activities will require additional data, such as on the distribution of lending across activities. - It will be important to get data for the loans and deposits of the household sector, which are usually available. - By convention, government could be exempt from such allocation. ### Officials Met During the Mission - Dr. Burton Mguni — Statistics Botswana (Statistician General) — bmguni@statsbots.org.bw - Malebogo Kerekang — Statistics Botswana (Deputy Statistician General) — mkerekang@statsbots.org.bw - Boitumelo Matlhaga — Statistics Botswana (Director of Economic Statistics) — bmatlhaga@statsbots.gov.au - Ketso Makhumalo — Statistics Botswana — kmakhumalo@statsbots.org.bw - Lekoko Simako — Statistics Botswana — lsimako@statsbots.org.bw - Winsten Kabo — Statistics Botswana — wkabo@statsbots.org.bw - Chandler Madisa — Statistics Botswana — chmadisa@statsbots.org.bw - Boitumelo Kobua — Statistics Botswana — bkobua@statsbots.org.bw - Phemelo Ntwayapelo — Statistics Botswana — pntwayapelo@statsbots.gov.bw - Godiraone Gaolaolwe — Statistics Botswana — ggaolaolwe@statsbots.gov.bw - Michael Andina — Statistics Botswana — mandina@statsbots.gov.bw - Koontse Mokgwathi — Statistics Botswana — knmokgwathi@statsbots.gov.bw - Temba Sibanda — Statistics Botswana — tsibanda@statsbots.org.bw - Ipuseng Zambo — Statistics Botswana — izambo@statsbots.gov.bw - Mr. Jan Redeby — AfDB, Consultant — jan@redeby.co.is; redeby@gmail.com - Thapelo Maruatona — Statistics Botswana — tmaruatona@statsbots.org.bw - Phetogo Zambezi — Statistics Botswana — pgopolang@statsbots.org.bw - Jimmy George — Statistics Botswana — jgeorge@statsbots.org.bw *1bwaea2019001 - Section 2* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2019/1bwaea2019001.pdf_