## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

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---

### CONTEXT
- COVID-19 pandemic could have a considerable economic and social impact in C.A.R. and could exacerbate tensions in an already volatile environment.
- Security situation: precarious with sporadic outbreaks of violence; political tensions could flare up in the run-up to the December presidential and legislative elections (first round scheduled for December 27, 2020 and second round for February 14, 2021).
- Authorities adopted a comprehensive response plan aimed at containing the spread of the virus and increasing state capacity to assist infected people.
- Refugees and displacement:
  - Number of refugees believed to have increased slightly to around 611,000 (about 13 percent of the population) at end-February.
  - Internally displaced persons estimate not updated since October, when it stood at 600,000 (12 percent of the population).
- Election financing: financing not fully secured; UN Peacebuilding Commission identified about US$20 million (US$15 million from the EU, US$3 million by UNDP and US$2 million by the CAR’s authorities) of the about US$30 million it considers necessary.

### REQUEST FOR FUND SUPPORT
- Authorities request a disbursement of SDR 27.85 million, equivalent to 25 percent of quota, under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF), with the full amount to become available upon Board approval.
- Staff supports the request.
- Authorities are also seeking additional grant financing from multilateral and bilateral donors and have requested Fund assistance from the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust.

### RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND RESPONSE MEASURES
- COVID-19 cases: 10 confirmed cases in C.A.R. as of the reporting period; first confirmed case reported on March 14 and 9 others reported by April 8. (Elsewhere in the report confirmed cases reported as 12 as of April 16, 2020.)
- Containment measures: closing borders, schools, most public establishments; ban on meetings of more than 15 people; restrictions on movement from Bangui; mandatory temperature checks and self-quarantine for travelers from countries with many confirmed cases.
- Response plan cost: about CFAF 27 billion (2 percent of GDP), prepared in collaboration with WHO; short-term objective to ensure readiness for a domestic major outbreak.
- Health system strengths: epidemic management experience from Ebola response; network of laboratory centers including WHO-accredited Institut Pasteur de Bangui.
- Health system challenges: lack of Covid-19 specific management system; weak coordination across partners; unprepared medical teams; low lab capacity; limited public communications.

### 2019 MACRO AND FISCAL PERFORMANCE
- Growth: about 3 percent in 2019 (lower than projected 4½ percent) due to a sharp fall in cotton and coffee production and lower-than-projected diamond and gold production.
- Inflation: averaged 2.7 percent in 2019; remained below the regional convergence threshold of 3.0 percent.
- Current account deficit: about CFAF 65 billion (slightly lower than expected CFAF 76 billion); declined to 5.6 percent of GDP in 2019 from 8.0 percent in 2018.
- Trade deficit: increased to more than 15 percent of GDP.
- Fiscal performance (2019):
  - Domestic primary fiscal balance at CFAF 47.1 billion vs. ECF target CFAF 40.9 billion (deviation of 0.5 percent of GDP).
  - Revenue shortfall CFAF 1.9 billion.
  - Social spending CFAF 22.7 billion vs. target CFAF 25 billion.
  - Use of exceptional spending procedures at 5.5 percent vs. target 5 percent.
  - Domestic arrears repayments CFAF 28.5 billion vs. target CFAF 29.5 billion.
- Public debt-to-GDP ratio: estimated at about 48 percent at end-2019 (50 percent at end-2018; 63 percent at end-2014).
- Banking system at end-2019: capital adequacy ratio above 30 percent; non-performing loans ratio 12.6 percent; credit to private sector declined by 1.6 percent year-on-year in December.

### IMPACT OF THE PANDEMIC, OUTLOOK, AND RISKS
- Pandemic channels: reduce domestic demand, disrupt supply and trade, reduce demand for commodity exports, increase healthcare imports, lower remittances and financial flows (including FDI).
- 2020 outlook revisions and projections:
  - Real GDP: 1 percent in 2020 (previously envisaged 5 percent).
  - Inflation: expected to pick up due to trade and supply disruptions; CPI (end-of-period) entries include 3.5 percent for 2020 in some projections.
  - Primary domestic fiscal balance: likely to be substantially larger than targeted under the ECF (5.8 vs. 2.7 percent of GDP).
  - External overall balance: substantially impacted by lower commodity exports, remittances, financial flows (including FDI), and higher imports of healthcare products; partially offset by lower other imports.
- Medium-term conditional outlook (global recovery and continued implementation of peace agreement and ECF reforms):
  - Growth could increase to 4 percent in 2021 and 5 percent over the medium term.
  - Inflation would average 2½ percent.
  - Current account deficit would stabilize at around 6 percent of GDP.
- Risks (considerable and skewed to the downside):
  - Larger and more protracted pandemic impact could escalate violence.
  - Weakened policy and reform implementation in run-up to elections could derail ECF.
  - Weaker global growth, rising protectionism, and retreat from multilateralism could affect exports.
  - Given high risk of debt distress and fragility, larger-than-anticipated external financing needs should be met with additional grant financing to limit policy adjustment needs.
- Authorities concurred with staff on outlook and risks and agreed to closely monitor the situation for potential additional urgent financing needs.

### POLICY RESPONSE AND RECOMMENDATIONS
- Response plan objectives (cost estimated at CFAF 27 billion FCFA, 2 percent of GDP):
  - (i) provide medical care for confirmed cases; (ii) improve monitoring at main points of entry; (iii) improve capacity of medical staff and facilities; strengthen healthcare system for future pandemics.
- Fiscal policy stance:
  - Authorities intend to allow the fiscal deficit to increase to accommodate the bulk of the fiscal impact of the pandemic.
  - Planned reduction up to CFAF 6 billion (about 0.5 percent of GDP) in non-priority expenditures (e.g., missions and cultural activities).
  - Remainder of the impact to be accommodated to allow continued social, infrastructure, and security spending.
  - Increase in overall fiscal balance (excluding grants) to be financed through on-lending to the government of the RCF disbursement and additional grant financing from other donors.
  - Authorities intend to identify additional savings on non-priority expenditures and mobilize additional grant financing from development partners to finance other mitigation measures.
- Policy implications from debt and DSA:
  - Prioritize grant financing for the government’s investment program.
  - Consider concessional debt financing only in exceptional cases.
  - Implement committed ECF policies and structural reforms once pandemic effects wane to maintain debt sustainability.

### ACCESS, EXTERNAL ARREARS, AND CAPACITY TO REPAY
- RCF access requested: SDR 27.85 million (25 percent of quota).
- Additional external financing need in 2020: estimated at about CFAF 46 billion.
  - Of this, CFAF 22.6 billion (about 49 percent) will be covered by the RCF disbursement.
  - World Bank expected to provide CFAF 19.1 billion (equivalent to 42 percent of the estimated gap), including a US$25 million increase in budget support under its DPO and a US$7.5 million emergency project operation.
  - European Union budget support revised upward by CFAF 2 billion (4 percent of the gap).
  - Residual gap: CFAF 2.4 billion (about 5 percent of the gap).
- Authorities have requested debt relief under the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust to help fill the residual gap.
- External arrears:
  - C.A.R. has accumulated arrears that pre-date the Completion Point of the HIPC initiative with some non-Paris Club creditors (Argentina, Equatorial Guinea, Iraq, Libya, and Taiwan, Province of China). All creditors have provided consent to Fund financing.
  - C.A.R. remains in arrears to a private creditor and is continuing good-faith efforts to reach a collaborative agreement.
  - Fund may provide financing notwithstanding external arrears to private creditors given prompt support is essential and C.A.R. is pursuing appropriate policies.
- Capacity to repay the Fund:
  - Capacity remains adequate, although subject to risks linked to the country’s substantial debt to the Fund.
  - With the newly proposed access, debt service to the IMF (including previous obligations) would peak at SDR 41.7 million in 2026, equivalent to 10 percent of exports of goods and services.
  - Mitigating factors: membership in a monetary union (access to CEMAC’s pool of reserves), maintenance of significant government deposits with BEAC, upside potential from an eventual peace dividend.
  - Nonetheless, deep-rooted challenges make it likely C.A.R. will require continued Fund engagement, including some financing, for the foreseeable future.

### REGIONAL AND FINANCIAL SECTOR MEASURES
- BEAC (Monetary policy committee actions on March 27, 2020):
  - Suspended liquidity absorption operations.
  - Decreased the policy rate (TIAO) by 25 basis points, from 3.5 to 3.25 percent.
  - Decreased the marginal lending facility rate by 100 basis points from 6 to 5 percent.
  - Increased liquidity provision from CFAF 240 to 500 billion with the possibility of raising injections if necessary.
  - Widened the range of private financial instruments accepted as collateral.
  - CPM encouraged reduction in haircuts and postponement by one year of principal repayment of consolidated central bank’s credits to member states.
  - Recommended banks ensure continuity of financial services, strengthen remote banking, and reduce banking services costs.
- COBAC measures (letter on March 25):
  - Requested banks and microfinance institutions to review loan portfolios, adhere to loan classification and provisioning regulation in restructuring/reprofiling, use conservation buffers of 2.5 percent to absorb pandemic-related losses and thus hold a minimum of 8 percent solvency ratio, request recapitalization plans if needed, continue essential financial services, and implement business continuity plans.

### IMF STAFF APPRAISAL, PROGRAM MODALITY, AND TIMING
- Staff supports the authorities’ RCF request (SDR 27.85 million, 25 percent of quota) in view of urgent balance of payments needs, the authorities’ economic policies and reforms, and adequate capacity to repay the Fund.
- Staff welcomes the authorities’ swift preparation of a national response plan developed with WHO.
- Staff supports the authorities’ decision to accommodate most of the pandemic’s impact on the domestic primary fiscal balance.
  - Envisaged additional financing support from the Fund, the World Bank, the EU and possibly other donors will help finance the increase in the overall fiscal balance (excluding grants), estimated at 3¾ percent of GDP, while preserving adequate fiscal buffers.
- Program timing and operational considerations:
  - RCF disbursement considered the appropriate vehicle at this time.
  - Due to the pandemic, it will take time to bring the ECF-supported program back on track — implying delays in completing the first review, which could be combined with the second review and completed in the second half of the year, conditions permitting.
  - Alternatively, a second drawing under the RCF could be considered if conditions warrant it.
- Fund will continue to provide technical assistance in coordination with other CD partners.

### DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS (DSA) — KEY POINTS
- Risk of external debt distress: High.
- Overall risk of debt distress: High.
- Composite indicator score: 2.44 (based on October 2019 WEO and the 2018 CPIA), signaling a weak debt-carrying capacity.
- Key judgment: Debt projected to remain sustainable over the medium term provided authorities implement policies and structural reforms committed under the ECF arrangement once COVID-19 effects wear off.
- Recommendation: Government’s investment program requires grant financing, with concessional debt financing to be considered in exceptional cases.
- Macroeconomic and DSA assumptions include Real GDP growth: 2020: 1.0; 2021: 4.0; 2022: 5.0; PV of PPG external debt-to-GDP ratio: 2020: 18.6; 2021: 21.1; 2022: 20.8.
- Stress tests show large vulnerability: Example PV of external PPG debt-to-GDP under B6 (Combination of shocks) series: 2021: 31.2; 2022: 36.2; 2023: 34.5.

### SELECTED MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS AND KEY INDICATORS (HIGHLIGHTS 2018–25)
- Real GDP (annual % change): 2018 Est. 3.8; 2019 Est. 4.5; 2020 Proj. 3.0 (ECF request) / 1.0 (ECF request); 2021 Proj. 4.0; 2022–25 Proj. 5.0.
- Inflation (end-of-period) series includes: 4.6, -0.3, -2.8, 2.5, 3.5, 2.5, 2.5, 2.5, 2.5.
- Current account balance (percent of GDP) with grants: -8.0, -5.6, -4.9, -6.3, -5.7, -5.2, -5.2, -5.7, -5.8, -5.7.
- Overall fiscal balance (including grants, percent of GDP): -1.0, 1.8, 1.4, -0.4, -2.1, 0.4, -0.4, -1.1, -1.4, -1.6.
- Domestic primary fiscal balance (percent of GDP): -1.7, -3.0, -3.5, -2.7, -5.8, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5.
- Public sector debt (percent of GDP): 50.0, 47.1, 47.8, 42.6, 47.1, 44.5, 41.5, 39.3, 37.5, 36.1.
- Central government revenue (including grants, percent of GDP): 16.6, 19.4, 18.3, 18.6, 19.6, 18.9, 18.3, 17.5, 17.4, 17.3.
- Nominal GDP (CFAF billions, memorandum): 1,266; 1,360; 1,335; 1,464; 1,380; 1,471; 1,584; 1,705; 1,834; 1,974.

### STAFF CONCLUSION
- In view of C.A.R.’s present and urgent balance of payments financing needs, the authorities’ economic policies and reforms, and adequate capacity to repay the Fund, staff supports the authorities’ request for a disbursement under the RCF in the amount of SDR 27.85 million (25 percent of quota).

*Source: International Monetary Fund — EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (1cafea2020002).*

### EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

### EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

### CONTEXT
- The COVID-19 pandemic, if not contained, could have a considerable economic and social impact in C.A.R. and could exacerbate tensions in an already volatile environment.
- Security situation remains precarious with sporadic outbreaks of violence; political tensions could flare up in the run-up to the December presidential and legislative elections.
- Authorities adopted a comprehensive response plan aimed at containing the spread of the virus and increasing state capacity to assist infected people.
- Refugee and displacement context:
  - Number of refugees believed to have increased slightly to around 611,000 (about 13 percent of the population) at end-February.
  - Internally displaced persons estimate not updated since October, when it stood at 600,000 (12 percent of the population).
- Elections:
  - First round scheduled for December 27, 2020 and second round for February 14, 2021.
  - Financing of the elections is not yet fully secured; UN Peacebuilding Commission identified about US$20 million (US$15 million from the EU, US$3 million by UNDP and US$2 million by the CAR’s authorities) of the about US$30 million it considers necessary.

### REQUEST FOR FUND SUPPORT
- Authorities request a disbursement of SDR 27.85 million, equivalent to 25 percent of quota, under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF), with the full amount to become available upon Board approval.
- Staff supports the request.
- Authorities are also seeking additional grant financing from multilateral and bilateral donors and have requested Fund assistance from the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust.

### RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
- COVID-19 cases: 10 confirmed cases in C.A.R. as of the reporting period; first confirmed case reported on March 14 and 9 others reported by April 8.
- Response measures adopted include closing borders, schools, most public establishments; ban on meetings of more than 15 people; restrictions on movement from Bangui.
- Response plan cost: about CFAF 27 billion (2 percent of GDP), prepared in collaboration with WHO.
- 2019 macro performance:
  - Growth at about 3 percent, lower than projected 4½ percent, reflecting a sharp fall in cotton and coffee production and lower than projected diamond and gold production.
  - Inflation averaged 2.7 percent in 2019.
  - Current account deficit about CFAF 65 billion (slightly lower than expected CFAF 76 billion).
  - Trade deficit increased to more than 15 percent of GDP.
- Fiscal performance in 2019:
  - Domestic primary fiscal balance at CFAF 47.1 billion vs. ECF target CFAF 40.9 billion (deviation of 0.5 percent of GDP).
  - Revenue shortfall CFAF 1.9 billion.
  - Social spending CFAF 22.7 billion vs. target CFAF 25 billion.
  - Use of exceptional spending procedures at 5.5 percent vs. target 5 percent.
  - Domestic arrears repayments CFAF 28.5 billion vs. target CFAF 29.5 billion.
- Public debt-to-GDP ratio estimated at about 48 percent at end-2019 (50 percent at end-2018; 63 percent at end-2014).
- Banking system at end-2019: capital adequacy ratio above 30 percent; non-performing loans ratio 12.6 percent; credit to private sector declined by 1.6 percent year-on-year in December.
- Structural reforms: mixed progress—an end-January structural benchmark on hiring a service provider to assist with import valuation and timber export revenues was not fully met; digitalization pilots progressing (mobile payment of civil servants in three provinces successful; pilot electronic filing and payment of taxes by large companies planned).

### BOX 1 — RESPONSE PLAN TO THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC (summarized)
- Measures adopted since March 6 for travelers: mandatory temperature checks; self-quarantine for travelers from countries with many confirmed cases.
- Measures announced March 26 for 15 days: closing of schools and borders; ban on assemblies >15 people; restriction of movement from Bangui.
- Health system strengths: epidemic management experience from Ebola response; network of laboratory centers including WHO-accredited Institut Pasteur de Bangui; network of hospitals and drug suppliers.
- Health system challenges: lack of Covid-19 specific management system; weak coordination across partners; unprepared medical teams; low lab capacity; limited public communications.
- Response plan (adopted March 17) aims to strengthen coordination, lab capacities, prevention measures, medical treatment, and communication; short-term objective to ensure readiness for a domestic major outbreak.

### IMPACT OF THE PANDEMIC, OUTLOOK, AND RISKS
- Pandemic expected to have a considerable economic and social impact on C.A.R., affecting domestic demand, disrupting supply and trade, and reducing demand for commodity exports.
- 2020 outlook revisions and projections:
  - Real GDP: 1 percent in 2020 (previously envisaged 5 percent).
  - Inflation: expected to pick up due to trade and supply disruptions.
  - Primary domestic fiscal balance: likely to be substantially larger than targeted under the ECF (5.8 vs. 2.7 percent of GDP).
  - External overall balance: substantially impacted by lower commodity exports, remittances, financial flows (including FDI), and higher imports of healthcare products; partially offset by lower other imports.
- Text Table 1 selected indicators (2018–25) excerpts (as presented):
  - Real GDP: 2018 Est. 3.8; 2019 Est. 4.5; 2020 Proj. 3.0 (ECF request), 2020 Proj. 1.0 (ECF request) [table formatting preserved as in source].
  - Inflation (end of year) entries include values such as 4.6, -0.3, -2.8, 2.5, 3.5, 2.5, 2.5, 2.5, 2.5.
  - Current account balance (percent of GDP) entries include -8.0, -5.6, -4.9, -6.3, -5.7, -5.3, -5.2, -5.2, -5.7, -5.8, -5.7.
  - Overall fiscal balance (incl. grants, percent of GDP) entries include -1.0, 1.8, 1.4, -0.4, -2.1, 0.2, 0.4, -0.4, -1.1, -1.4, -1.6.
  - Domestic primary fiscal balance (percent of GDP) entries include -1.7, -3.0, -3.5, -2.7, -5.8, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5.
  - Public sector debt (percent of GDP) entries include 50.0, 47.1, 47.8, 42.6, 47.1, 39.8, 44.5, 41.5, 39.3, 37.5, 36.1.
  - Budget support (percent of GDP) entries include 3.0, 6.0, 6.0, 3.7, 5.2, 3.4, 3.7, 2.8, 2.1, 1.9, 1.8.
- Medium-term outlook conditional on global recovery and continued implementation of the peace agreement and ECF reforms:
  - Growth could increase to 4 percent in 2021 and 5 percent over the medium term.
  - Inflation would average 2½ percent.
  - Current account deficit would stabilize at around 6 percent of GDP.
- Risks are considerable and skewed to the downside:
  - Larger and more protracted pandemic impact could escalate violence.
  - Weakened policy and reform implementation in run-up to elections could derail ECF.
  - Weaker global growth, rising protectionism, and retreat from multilateralism could affect exports.
  - Given high risk of debt distress and fragility, larger-than-anticipated external financing needs should be met with additional grant financing to limit policy adjustment needs.
- Authorities concurred with staff on outlook and risks and agreed to closely monitor the situation for potential additional urgent financing needs.

### POLICY ISSUES AND DISCUSSIONS: RESPONDING TO THE PANDEMIC
- Response plan cost and objectives:
  - Cost estimated at CFAF 27 billion FCFA (2 percent of GDP).
  - Aims: (i) provide medical care for confirmed cases; (ii) improve monitoring at main points of entry; (iii) improve capacity of medical staff and facilities; includes measures to strengthen healthcare system for future pandemics.
- Fiscal policy stance:
  - Authorities intend to allow the fiscal deficit to increase to accommodate the bulk of the fiscal impact of the pandemic (impact from lower revenue, decline in local demand, trade disruptions, and additional outlays).
  - Authorities plan to reduce up to CFAF 6 billion (about 0.5 percent of GDP) in non-priority expenditures (e.g., missions and cultural activities) as part of containment measures.
  - Remainder of the impact to be accommodated to allow continued social, infrastructure, and security spending.
  - Increase in overall fiscal balance (excluding grants) to be financed through on-lending to the government of the RCF disbursement and additional grant financing from other donors.
  - Authorities intend to identify additional savings on non-priority expenditures and mobilize additional grant financing from development partners to finance other mitigation measures.

### ACCESS, EXTERNAL ARREARS, AND CAPACITY TO REPAY
- Authorities continue efforts to resolve pre-HIPC external arrears (as noted in broader report sections).

*Source: International Monetary Fund — EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (1cafea2020002).*

### 17.      C.A.R. remains at high risk of debt distress (see debt sustainability analysis). This risk has

### 17.      C.A.R. remains at high risk of debt distress

### Risk of debt distress and financing stance
- C.A.R. remains at high risk of debt distress. This risk has increased owing to the uncertainty surrounding the economic impact of the pandemic.
- Solvency indicators will remain below their relevant thresholds, but the disbursement under the RCF will accentuate somewhat the breaches of the liquidity indicators over the medium term reported in the December 2019 debt sustainability analysis.
- Policy implication: authorities should follow a prudent approach to contracting new external debt, prioritizing grant financing with some limited room for concessional financing.

### Authorities’ policy commitments and structural reforms
- Authorities reiterated commitment to pursue the policies and structural reforms to which they had committed under the ECF arrangement adopted last December.
- Intended reforms and priorities (to be pursued, as conditions permit):
  - Enhance domestic revenue mobilization.
  - Strengthen public financial management and governance — including through the publication of the final report of the Fund’s governance diagnostic mission and the finalization and publication of an updated anti-corruption strategy.
  - Enhance the business environment.

### Regional institutions’ support and financial sector measures
- BEAC (Monetary policy committee actions on March 27, 2020):
  - Suspended liquidity absorption operations.
  - Decreased the policy rate (TIAO) by 25 basis points, from 3.5 to 3.25 percent.
  - Decreased the marginal lending facility rate by 100 basis points from 6 to 5 percent.
  - Increased liquidity provision from CFAF 240 to 500 billion with the possibility of raising the amount of injections if necessary.
  - Widened the range of private financial instruments accepted as collateral for monetary policy operations.
  - CPM encouraged BEAC management to propose reduction in haircuts applicable to public securities and private instruments accepted as collateral and to postpone by one year principal repayment of consolidated central bank’s credits to member states.
  - CPM recommended banks ensure continuity of financial services, strengthen remote banking operations and reduce banking services costs.
- COBAC measures (letter on March 25):
  - Requested banks and microfinance institutions to review their loan portfolio in light of the pandemic.
  - Instructed strict adherence to existing loan classification and provisioning regulation, including in cases of restructuring or reprofiling.
  - Advised use of conservation buffers of 2.5 percent to absorb pandemic-related losses as needed and thus hold a minimum of 8 percent solvency ratio, but follow a restrictive policy regarding dividend distribution.
  - Requested recapitalization plans in case of capital shortfall.
  - Urged continuation of essential financial services and implementation of business continuity plans.
  - COBAC stands ready to announce further measures and is implementing its own business continuity plan.

### Access under the RCF, external financing needs, and arrears
- Authorities requested a disbursement under the RCF equivalent to 25 percent of quota (SDR 27.85 million) to address urgent balance of payments needs from the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Additional external financing need in 2020 is estimated at about CFAF 46 billion.
  - Of this, CFAF 22.6 billion (about 49 percent) will be covered by the RCF disbursement.
  - World Bank expected to provide CFAF 19.1 billion (equivalent to 42 percent of the estimated gap) in additional financing.
  - European Union budget support revised upward by CFAF 2 billion (4 percent of the gap).
  - Residual gap: CFAF 2.4 billion (about 5 percent of the gap).
- Authorities have requested debt relief under the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust to help fill the residual gap.
- Note: The World Bank additional financing would include a US$25 million increase in the budget support provided as part of its DPO and a US$7.5 million emergency project operation.

### Capacity to repay the Fund and debt service profile
- C.A.R.’s capacity to repay the Fund remains adequate, although subject to risks linked to the country’s substantial debt to the Fund.
- Authorities are making regular deposits at the BEAC and have always met their Fund obligations in a timely manner.
- With the newly proposed access, debt service to the IMF (including previous obligations) would peak at SDR 41.7 million in 2026, equivalent to 10 percent of exports of goods and services.
- Mitigating factors for repayment risks:
  - Membership in a monetary union (access to CEMAC’s pool of reserves provided budgetary resources to purchase them).
  - Maintenance of significant government deposits with BEAC over the medium term.
  - Upside potential from an eventual peace dividend.
- Nonetheless, deep-rooted challenges make it likely C.A.R. will require continued Fund engagement, including some financing, for the foreseeable future.

### External arrears and safeguards
- C.A.R. has accumulated arrears that pre-date the Completion Point of the HIPC initiative with some non-Paris Club creditors (Argentina, Equatorial Guinea, Iraq, Libya, and Taiwan, Province of China). All creditors have provided consent to Fund financing.
- C.A.R. remains in arrears to a private creditor and is continuing good-faith efforts to reach a collaborative agreement.
- Fund may provide financing notwithstanding external arrears to private creditors given prompt support is essential and C.A.R. is pursuing appropriate policies.
- Safeguards: BEAC has implemented most recommendations from the 2017 safeguards assessment, including alignment of BEAC’s secondary legal instruments with its Charter and advancing work on the full transition to IFRS for FY 2019.

### Staff appraisal, macroeconomic outlook, and program modality
- COVID-19 could have a considerable economic and social impact in C.A.R. and exacerbate tensions given limited healthcare capacity and limited government control over large areas.
- Staff welcome the authorities’ swift preparation of a national response plan developed with WHO to strengthen the national healthcare system.
- Growth is expected to be substantially lower than previously envisaged, with important downside risks.
- Staff supports authorities’ decision to accommodate most of the pandemic’s impact on the domestic primary fiscal balance.
  - The envisaged additional financing support from the Fund, the World Bank, the EU and possibly other donors will help finance the increase in the overall fiscal balance (excluding grants), estimated at 3¾ percent of GDP, while preserving adequate fiscal buffers.
- Continued implementation of ECF-committed policies and structural reforms is essential to ensure macroeconomic stability, debt sustainability, and restore sustained inclusive growth.
- Fund will continue to provide technical assistance in coordination with other CD partners.

### Program timing and operational considerations
- Staff considers a disbursement under the RCF the appropriate vehicle to support C.A.R. at this time.
- Owing to the pandemic, it will take time to bring the ECF-supported program back on track — implying delays in completing the first review, which could be combined with the second review and completed in the second half of the year, conditions permitting.
- Alternatively, a second drawing under the RCF could be considered if conditions warrant it.

*CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC — INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND*

### 29.      In this context, and in view of C.A.R.’s present and urgent balance of payments

### 29. In this context, and in view of C.A.R.’s present and urgent balance of payments financing needs, the authorities’ economic policies and reforms, and adequate capacity to repay the Fund, staff supports the authorities’ request for a disbursement under the RCF in the amount of SDR 27.85 million (25 percent of quota).

### RCF decision
- Staff supports the authorities’ request for a disbursement under the RCF in the amount of SDR 27.85 million (25 percent of quota).

### Macroeconomic projections and key indicators (2018–25)
- GDP at constant prices: 3.8 4.5 3.0 5.0 1.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
- GDP per capita at constant prices: 2.3 2.8 1.3 3.2 -0.7 2.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
- GDP at current prices: 5.2 7.4 5.5 7.6 3.4 6.6 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.6
- GDP deflator: 1.3 2.8 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
- CPI (annual average): 1.6 3.2 2.7 2.5 1.2 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
- CPI (end-of-period): 4.6 -0.3 -2.8 2.5 3.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

### Money and credit
- Broad money: 14.0 3.2 1.9 14.9 12.3 0.8 6.2 6.8 7.4 8.5
- Credit to the economy: 11.5 3.0 -1.6 5.0 -2.0 7.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0

### External sector and external balances
- Export volume of goods: 10.3 -6.5 -6.7 14.9 -9.9 11.5 15.2 10.8 10.2 9.0
- Import volume of goods: -0.7 10.4 10.4 7.8 -1.3 4.5 3.9 4.3 5.3 5.5
- Terms of trade: -12.4 12.7 13.9 3.5 -0.1 5.9 3.8 2.1 -0.3 -1.1
- Gross national savings: 8.4 10.5 9.7 10.6 10.5 10.6 11.0 11.1 11.7 12.4
  - Of which: current official transfers: 3.0 6.0 6.0 3.7 5.2 3.7 2.8 2.1 1.9 1.8
- Gross domestic savings: -1.4 -1.9 -3.7 0.3 -1.1 -0.1 1.2 2.3 3.3 4.1
  - Government: -1.2 -1.6 -2.5 -1.3 -4.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1
  - Private sector: -0.2 -0.3 -1.2 1.6 3.2 0.5 1.8 2.8 3.6 4.3
- Consumption (percent of GDP) total: 101.4 101.9 103.7 99.7 101.1 100.1 98.8 97.7 96.7 95.9
  - Government: 7.7 7.3 8.0 7.5 8.9 7.5 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7
  - Private sector: 93.7 94.6 95.6 92.3 92.2 92.5 91.1 90.0 89.0 88.2
- Gross investment (percent of GDP): 16.4 16.2 14.7 16.9 16.2 15.9 16.2 16.8 17.5 18.1
  - Government investment: 7.4 7.1 5.6 7.9 8.7 7.6 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.6
  - Private sector investment: 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 7.5 8.3 8.9 9.5 10.0 10.5

### Current account balances (percent of GDP)
- External current account balance with grants: -8.0 -5.6 -4.9 -6.3 -5.7 -5.2 -5.2 -5.7 -5.8 -5.7
- External current account balance without grants: -12.3 -12.9 -12.2 -11.6 -12.5 -10.7 -10.0 -9.7 -9.7 -9.4

### Balance of payments
- Overall balance of payments (percent of GDP): -1.7 1.0 -0.7 1.3 -0.5 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.2 2.7

### Central government finance (percent of GDP)
- Total revenue (including grants): 16.6 19.4 18.3 18.6 19.6 18.9 18.3 17.5 17.4 17.3
  - Domestic revenue: 8.9 8.7 8.8 9.7 8.5 10.3 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.1
- Total expenditure (cash basis): 17.6 17.6 16.9 19.0 21.7 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.7 18.9
  - Of which: capital spending: 7.4 7.1 5.6 7.9 8.7 7.6 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.6
- Overall balance excluding grants: -8.7 -8.9 -8.2 -9.3 -13.1 -8.3 -8.0 -7.9 -7.9 -7.8
- Overall balance including grants: -1.0 1.8 1.4 -0.4 -2.1 0.4 -0.4 -1.1 -1.4 -1.6
- Domestic primary balance: -1.7 -3.0 -3.5 -2.7 -5.8 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5
- Public sector debt (percent of GDP): 50.0 47.1 47.8 42.6 47.1 44.5 41.5 39.3 37.5 36.1
  - Of which: domestic debt: 13.9 10.2 10.4 7.8 8.3 7.4 6.3 5.5 4.6 4.4
  - Of which: external debt: 36.1 36.9 37.5 34.8 38.9 37.1 35.2 33.9 32.9 31.7

### Memorandum items (levels)
- GDP per capita (US dollars): 489 500 480 534 486 513 545 576 608 642
- Nominal GDP (CFAF billions): 1,266 1,360 1,335 1,464 1,380 1,471 1,584 1,705 1,834 1,974

### Central Government Financial Operations (2018–25, CFAF billions)
- Revenue (total): 210.5 263.2 244.8 271.7 269.9 278.5 289.3 298.0 318.7 342.2
  - Domestic revenue: 112.4 118.0 116.1 141.7 117.7 151.0 168.3 182.9 199.7 218.6
  - Tax revenue: 102.2 103.9 104.1 115.9 97.7 124.7 134.9 147.0 161.1 177.1
    - Income and property tax: 21.6 23.3 23.5 25.6 22.3 27.7 30.5 32.1 37.1 38.7
    - Taxes on goods and services: 51.6 54.3 54.3 58.9 49.6 62.8 66.7 74.5 81.5 91.0
      - Of which: VAT: 33.1 34.4 34.4 36.3 30.1 38.2 40.8 46.1 50.2 56.0
    - Taxes on international trade: 29.0 26.2 26.2 31.4 25.8 34.2 37.8 40.3 42.4 47.3
  - Non-tax revenue: 10.2 14.1 12.0 25.8 20.0 26.4 33.4 35.9 38.6 41.6
  - Grants: 98.1 145.2 128.7 130.0 152.2 127.5 121.0 115.1 119.0 123.5
    - Program: 37.5 81.9 80.2 54.1 71.9 53.9 45.0 35.0 34.7 34.7
    - Project: 60.6 63.3 48.5 75.9 80.3 73.6 76.0 80.1 84.4 88.8
- Expenditure (cash basis) total: 222.8 239.0 225.7 277.8 298.8 273.1 295.0 317.2 343.9 372.8
  - Primary Spending: 134.4 158.9 163.2 181.6 198.3 187.6 207.5 225.9 246.0 268.7
  - Current primary expenditure: 124.6 137.7 146.1 158.1 174.8 157.5 176.0 189.4 203.8 219.3
    - Wages and salaries: 61.3 64.5 65.1 70.2 71.4 69.9 76.0 81.8 88.0 94.7
    - Transfers and subsidies: 27.5 38.0 38.9 48.9 52.0 46.7 54.1 58.2 62.6 67.4
    - Goods and services: 35.8 35.3 42.2 39.0 51.3 40.9 45.9 49.4 53.1 57.2
    - Interest: 5.1 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.4
      - External interest: 2.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9
      - Domestic interest: 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.6
  - Capital expenditure: 93.1 96.7 75.0 115.1 119.5 111.1 115.0 124.1 136.6 150.0
    - Domestically financed: 9.8 21.2 17.1 23.5 23.5 30.1 31.5 36.5 42.2 49.3
    - Externally financed: 83.3 75.5 58.0 91.6 95.9 81.1 83.5 87.6 94.4 100.7

### Central government balances (CFAF billions)
- Overall balance excluding grants: -110.4 -121.0 -109.7 -136.1 -181.1 -122.1 -126.7 -134.4 -144.2 -154.1
- Overall balance including grants: -12.3 24.2 19.0 -6.1 -28.9 5.4 -5.7 -19.2 -25.1 -30.6
- Net change in arrears (reduction = -): -29.7 -29.5 -28.5 -36.4 -36.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
  - Domestic: -29.7 -29.5 -28.5 -36.4 -36.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
  - External: 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
- Overall balance, cash basis: -46.2 -5.3 -9.5 -42.5 -65.3 5.4 -5.7 -19.2 -25.1 -30.6

### Identified financing (CFAF billions)
- Identified financing total: 46.1 5.3 9.5 42.5 62.9 -5.4 5.7 19.3 25.2 30.6
  - External, net: 18.7 6.5 3.8 10.3 10.3 1.8 1.2 28.9 40.5 50.8
    - Project loans: 24.4 12.2 9.5 15.7 15.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 10.0 11.8
    - Program loans (to be identified from 2023 to 2024): 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 35.0 45.0
    - Amortization: -5.7 -5.7 -5.7 -5.4 -5.4 -5.7 -6.3 -3.6 -4.5 -6.1
  - Domestic, net: 27.4 -1.1 5.7 32.2 52.6 -7.3 4.4 -9.6 -15.3 -20.2
    - Banking system: 31.4 -1.1 5.7 32.2 52.6 -7.3 4.4 -11.6 -17.3 -22.2
    - BEAC: 35.4 1.8 8.6 35.2 55.6 -4.2 4.4 -16.7 -22.3 -27.2
      - Loans/counterpart SDR: 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -7.3 -7.5 -7.6 -7.8 -8.0
      - Counterpart to IMF resources (BEAC): 27.8 26.3 11.1 14.7 46.6 15.1 10.4 -14.3 -21.0 -24.6
    - Deposit withdrawals: 7.6 -24.5 -2.5 20.5 9.0 -12.0 1.4 5.2 6.5 5.4
    - Commercial banks: -4.0 -2.9 -2.9 -3.0 -3.0 -3.1 0.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
    - Nonbank: -4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
- Residual financing need: 0.1 ... 0.0 ... 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

### Public debt (memorandum)
- Total government debt (CFAF billions): 633.5 640.7 638.5 623.7 650.3 654.4 657.3 670.4 688.3 712.6
- Government domestic currency debt: 176.0 138.4 138.4 114.0 114.0 108.8 100.2 93.0 85.0 86.0

### Monetary survey highlights (2018–25, CFAF billions)
- Net foreign assets: 79.8 95.2 89.2 94.4 88.0 100.8 116.1 86.8 93.8 110.1 146.1 191.9 249.9
  - BEAC: 52.1 65.4 37.0 41.8 35.0 47.3 84.0 32.8 36.3 48.2 79.5 120.2 172.7
  - Commercial banks: 27.7 29.8 52.2 52.6 53.1 53.5 32.1 54.0 57.5 61.9 66.6 71.7 77.1
- Net domestic assets: 263.1 258.9 260.3 278.5 271.0 294.8 298.7 305.9 301.9 310.1 302.7 290.2 273.0
- Domestic credit: 371.0 374.8 374.1 393.2 386.7 411.5 415.4 423.5 427.2 445.1 448.0 446.5 441.2
  - Credit to the public sector: 207.4 206.3 213.1 235.2 231.3 259.0 238.5 265.8 258.5 262.9 251.3 234.0 211.8
    - Credit to central government (net): 207.4 206.3 213.1 235.2 231.3 259.0 238.5 265.8 258.5 262.9 251.3 234.0 211.8
      - BEAC: 200.5 202.2 209.1 231.9 228.7 257.2 237.4 264.7 260.5 264.9 248.2 225.9 198.7
      - Loans/counterpart SDR: 115.9 115.9 115.9 116.5 116.5 115.9 115.9 108.6 101.1 93.4 85.6 77.7
      - IMF (net): 117.3 143.6 128.4 136.9 154.3 152.6 158.3 175.0 190.1 200.6 186.3 165.3 140.7
      - Deposits: -32.8 -57.3 -37.6 -21.5 -42.1 -11.9 -36.8 -26.3 -38.2 -36.8 -31.5 -25.1 -19.7
  - Credit to the economy: 163.6 168.5 160.9 158.0 155.5 152.5 176.9 157.7 168.7 182.1 196.7 212.4 229.4
    - Public enterprises: 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
    - Private sector: 160.0 164.9 157.4 154.4 151.9 148.9 173.4 154.2 165.2 178.6 193.1 208.9 225.8
- Money and quasi-money: 343.0 354.1 349.5 372.9 359.1 395.6 406.8 392.6 395.7 420.2 448.8 482.1 522.9
  - Currency: 183.7 195.3 180.5 194.0 178.4 198.2 224.9 207.7 208.5 214.7 227.0 239.8 266.0
  - Deposits: 159.3 158.8 169.0 178.9 180.6 197.4 181.9 185.0 187.1 205.5 221.8 242.3 256.9
    - Demand deposits: 97.8 94.1 105.5 115.1 116.5 133.0 113.2 120.2 118.1 131.2 141.9 156.3 174.2
    - Term and savings deposits: 61.5 64.7 63.6 63.9 64.2 64.4 68.7 64.7 69.0 74.3 79.9 86.0 82.7

### Balance of payments (2018–25, CFAF billions and percent of GDP)
- Current account (CFAF billions): -100.8 -76.5 -65.7 -92.5 -78.2 -76.9 -82.8 -97.7 -106.6 -112.1
- Balance on goods (CFAF billions): -188.5 -207.1 -206.0 -206.8 -206.4 -199.9 -193.6 -192.9 -199.2 -208.8
  - Exports, f.o.b.: 91.1 93.6 94.1 108.1 82.6 95.3 114.4 130.2 144.6 157.5
    - Diamonds (CFAF billions): 5.0 4.4 2.8 6.2 4.4 5.9 8.0 10.1 12.3 15.2
    - Wood products (CFAF billions): 56.8 55.9 58.0 65.2 41.1 50.3 63.6 74.0 82.6 88.7
  - Imports, f.o.b.: -279.6 -300.6 -300.1 -314.9 -288.9 -295.1 -308.0 -323.1 -343.8 -366.3
    - Petroleum products (CFAF billions): -87.5 -91.6 -91.3 -90.4 -61.3 -63.2 -70.9 -78.1 -84.4 -89.9
- Services (net): -36.6 -38.7 -38.7 -36.8 -32.6 -34.4 -44.0 -54.3 -61.4 -67.2
  - Credit: 110.7 116.1 116.1 121.9 115.7 121.2 122.9 125.0 131.3 140.4
  - Debit: -147.3 -154.8 -154.8 -158.7 -148.2 -155.6 -166.8 -179.4 -192.7 -207.6
- Income (net): -1.6 -1.9 -1.9 -2.2 -1.9 -1.8 -1.5 -1.4 -1.3 -0.7
  - Credit: 12.6 13.1 12.9 13.8 13.1 13.6 14.3 15.0 15.7 16.8
  - Debit: -14.1 -15.1 -14.9 -15.9 -15.0 -15.4 -15.8 -16.4 -17.1 -17.5
- Transfers (net): 125.9 171.2 180.9 153.3 162.6 159.2 156.2 150.9 155.4 164.7
  - Private: 70.6 71.7 83.1 76.2 67.7 78.4 80.5 82.7 84.9 91.1
  - Official: 55.3 99.5 97.8 77.1 94.9 80.8 75.8 68.2 70.6 73.5
    - Program: 37.5 81.9 80.2 54.1 71.9 53.9 45.0 35.0 34.7 34.7
- Capital account (CFAF billions): 60.6 63.3 48.5 75.9 80.3 73.6 76.0 84.4 88.8 88.8
  - Project grants: 60.6 63.3 48.5 75.9 80.3 73.6 76.0 84.4 88.8 88.8
- Financial account (CFAF billions): 37.6 26.5 23.8 35.3 -8.7 6.8 18.7 48.9 63.0 75.8
  - Direct investment: 10.0 15.0 15.0 20.0 6.0 15.0 22.5 25.0 27.5 30.0
  - Other Investment (CFAF billions): 27.4 11.5 8.8 15.3 -14.7 -8.2 -3.8 23.9 35.5 45.8
  - Public sector (net): 18.7 6.5 3.8 10.3 10.3 1.8 1.2 28.9 40.5 50.8
    - Project disbursement: 24.4 12.2 9.5 15.7 15.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 10.0 11.8
    - Program disbursement: 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 35.0 45.0
    - Scheduled amortization: -5.7 -5.7 -5.7 -5.4 -5.4 -5.7 -6.3 -3.6 -4.5 -6.1
- Other short-term flows: 8.7 5.0 5.0 5.0 -25.0 -10.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0
- Errors and omissions: -19.4 0.0 -15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
- Overall balance (CFAF billions): -22.0 13.3 -9.3 18.7 -6.6 3.5 11.9 31.3 40.8 52.5
- Identified financing (CFAF billions): 22.0 -13.3 15.0 -18.6 4.2 -3.5 -11.9 -31.3 -40.8 -52.5
  - Net IMF credit (CFAF billions): 27.8 26.3 11.1 14.7 46.6 15.1 10.4 -14.3 -21.0 -24.6
    - IMF purchase: -35.9 -27.9 -18.5 -19.1 -51.6 -19.3 -19.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
    - IMF repurchase: 8.1 1.6 7.4 4.4 4.9 4.2 8.9 14.3 21.0 24.6
  - Other reserves (increase = -): -5.8 -39.6 3.9 -33.4 -42.4 -18.6 -22.4 -17.0 -19.7 -27.9
- Residual financing need: 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

### Balance of payments (percent of GDP highlights)
- Current account (percent of GDP): -8.0 -5.6 -4.9 -6.3 -5.7 -5.2 -5.2 -5.7 -5.8 -5.7
- Exports, f.o.b. (percent of GDP): 7.2 6.9 7.0 7.4 6.0 6.5 7.2 7.6 7.9 8.0
- Imports, f.o.b. (percent of GDP): -22.1 -22.1 -22.5 -21.5 -20.9 -20.1 -19.4 -19.0 -18.7 -18.6
- Transfers (net, percent of GDP): 9.9 12.6 13.6 10.5 11.8 10.8 9.9 8.9 8.5 8.3
- Capital account (percent of GDP): 4.8 4.7 3.6 5.2 5.8 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5
- Financial account (percent of GDP): 3.0 1.9 1.8 2.4 -0.6 0.5 1.2 2.9 3.4 3.8
- Overall balance (percent of GDP): -1.7 1.0 -0.7 1.3 -0.5 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.2 2.7

*Sources: C.A.R. authorities and IMF staff estimates and projections.*

### 1. Total financing requirements202.8  159.3  165.3  167.6  186.5  205.4

### 1. Total financing requirements

### Total financing requirements (annual figures)
- Total financing requirements: 202.8, 159.3, 165.3, 167.6, 186.5, 205.4
- Current account deficit (excl. budget support): 150.1, 130.8, 127.8, 132.7, 141.2, 146.8
- Debt amortization: 5.4, 5.7, 6.3, 3.6, 4.5, 6.1
- Repayment to the Fund: 4.9, 4.2, 8.9, 14.3, 21.0, 24.6
- Change in other reserves: 42.4, 18.6, 22.4, 17.0, 19.7, 27.9

### Total available financing (annual figures)
- Total available financing: 76.9, 86.1, 101.0, 107.6, 116.9, 125.7
- Capital transfers: 80.3, 73.6, 76.0, 80.1, 84.4, 88.8
- Foreign direct investment (net): 6.0, 15.0, 22.5, 25.0, 27.5, 30.0
- Portfolio investment (net): 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0
- Debt financing (Public Sector): 15.7, 7.5, 7.5, 7.5, 10.0, 11.8
- Other net capital inflows: -25.0, -10.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0

### Financing gap and expected financing
- Financing gap: 125.9, 73.2, 64.3, 60.0, 69.7, 79.7

- Expected sources of financing: 71.9, 53.9, 45.0, 60.0, 69.7, 79.7
  - of which: Budget support (grants): 71.9, 53.9, 45.0, 35.0, 34.7, 34.7
  - World Bank: 44.1, 28.1, ............
  - African Development Bank: 2.8, 2.8, ............
  - European Union: 18.4, 16.4, ............
  - France: 6.6, 6.6, ............
  - Other: 0.0, 0.0, ............
- of which: Budget support (loans): 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 25.0, 35.0, 45.0

### Residual financing gap and program support
- Residual financing gap: 54.0, 19.3, 19.3, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0
  - ECF program: 29.0, 19.3, 19.3, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0
  - RCF: 22.6, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0
  - Unidentified financing: 2.4, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0

- Note: Budget support loans to be identified.
- Note: Includes ECF request disbursement, approved by the Executive Board in December 2019, which happened in early January 2020.

*Source: IMF staff projections.*

### Indicators of capacity to repay the IMF (selected items, 2020–30)

### IMF obligations and outstanding credit (SDR millions and CFA billions)
- IMF obligations based on existing credit (SDR millions) — Principal: 6.07, 5.16, 10.86, 17.49, 25.79, 30.16, 29.12, 25.31, 14.90, 6.96, 1.19
- Charges and interest (SDR millions): 0.06, 0.03, 0.03, 0.03, 0.03, 0.03, 0.03, 0.03, 0.03, 0.03, 0.03

- IMF obligations based on existing and prospective credit (SDR millions) — Principal: 6.07, 5.16, 10.86, 17.49, 32.94, 40.66, 41.62, 34.79, 26.85, 18.30
- Charges and interest (SDR millions): 0.06, 0.03, 0.03, 0.03, 0.03, 0.03, 0.03, 0.03, 0.03, 0.03

- IMF obligations based on existing and prospective credit (CFA billions) — Principal: 4.95, 4.21, 8.85, 14.25, 21.02, 26.85, 33.14, 33.92, 28.35, 21.88, 14.91
- Charges and interest (CFA billions): 0.05, 0.02, 0.02, 0.02, 0.02, 0.02, 0.02, 0.02, 0.02, 0.02

- Outstanding IMF Credit (SDR Millions): 218.6, 237.4, 250.4, 232.9, 207.1, 174.2, 133.5, 91.9, 57.1, 30.2, 11.9
- Outstanding IMF Credit (CFAF Billions): 177.1, 191.7, 202.1, 188.0, 167.4, 141.0, 108.1, 74.4, 46.2, 24.5, 9.7

### Ratios and percent indicators
- Percent of government revenue: 150.4, 126.9, 120.1, 102.8, 83.8, 64.5, 46.1, 29.7, 17.3, 8.6, 3.2
- Percent of exports of goods and services: 89.3, 88.6, 85.2, 73.7, 60.7, 47.3, 33.9, 21.9, 12.8, 6.4, 2.4
- Percent of debt services: 1186.0, 1338.1, 1058.1, 870.4, 575.9, 413.4, 324.3, 245.6, 212.1, 159.4, 92.2
- Percent of GDP: 12.8, 13.0, 12.8, 11.0, 9.1, 7.1, 5.1, 3.3, 1.9, 1.0, 0.4
- Percent of quota: 196.3, 213.1, 224.7, 209.1, 185.9, 156.3, 119.8, 82.5, 51.2, 27.1, 10.7

### Net use of IMF credit (SDR millions)
- Disbursements: 63.7, 23.9, 23.9, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0
- Repayments and repurchases: 6.1, 5.2, 10.9, 17.5, 25.8, 33.0, 40.7, 41.7, 34.8, 26.9, 18.3

### Memorandum items (CFA francs)
- Nominal GDP (billions of CFA francs): 1380.3, 1471.2, 1584.0, 1704.7, 1834.1, 1973.9, 2115.6, 2256.3, 2405.9, 2565.7, 2736.3
- Exports of goods and services (billions of CFA francs): 198.2, 216.4, 237.3, 255.3, 275.9, 297.9, 318.7, 339.7, 360.8, 382.8, 408.0
- Government revenue (billions of CFA francs): 117.7, 151.0, 168.3, 182.9, 199.7, 218.6, 234.4, 250.2, 266.9, 284.7, 303.8
- Debt service (billions of CFA francs): 14.9, 14.3, 19.1, 21.6, 29.1, 34.1, 33.3, 30.3, 21.8, 15.4, 10.5
- IMF Quota (SDR millions): 111.4 for each year listed

*Source: IMF staff projections.*

### Financial soundness indicators (selected, 2012–19)

### Capital adequacy (percent)
- Total bank regulatory capital to risk-weighted assets: 22.7 (Dec-12), 39.1 (Dec-13), 42.2 (Dec-14), 38.7 (Dec-15), 32.0 (Dec-16), 34.3 (Dec-17), 32.0 (Jun-18), 28.5 (Dec-18), 31.4 (Jun-19), 30.3 (Dec-19)
- Total capital (net worth) to assets: 22.2, 23.7, 21.9, 21.1, 19.2, 21.0, 20.6, 21.3, 21.0, 20.0

### Asset quality (percent)
- Non-performing loans to total loans: 9.6, 28.5, 27.7, 30.9, 25.6, 22.9, 22.0, 15.6, 19.1, 12.6
- Non-performing loans net of provision to capital: 1.6, 50.0, 44.4, 34.9, 18.7, 4.3, 5.2, 0.6, 7.4, 6.0

### Earnings and profitability (percent)
- Net income to average assets (ROA): 4.5, -1.3, 0.9, -0.9, 0.8, 0.9, 2.6, 4.0, 2.7, N/A
- Net income to average capital (ROE): 20.7, -5.4, 3.8, -4.0, 4.2, 4.8, 12.7, 18.8, 13.0, N/A
- Non interest expense to gross income: 64.0, 79.5, 73.6, 72.8, 67.3, 88.6, 79.2, 76.7, 71.5, N/A

### Liquidity (percent)
- Liquid assets to total assets: 16.6, 19.2, 27.5, 40.0, 31.9, 30.7, 27.1, 29.9, 27.6, 26.3
- Liquid assets to short-term liabilities: 114.5, 149.1, 203.1, 276.1, 219.6, 227.4, 186.6, 198.6, 182.7, 165.8

*Sources: C.A.R. authorities and the Banque des Etats de l'Afrique Centrale.*

### Excerpted policy actions and COVID-19 response (Letter of Intent, April 9, 2020)

### Pandemic context and immediate measures
- First COVID-19 case reported: March 14 (plus nine more cases since then).
- Public health and containment measures: borders closed; commercial flights banned; movements from Bangui restricted; educational establishments closed; assemblies of more than 15 people banned; hospital visits restricted; handwashing facilities in public buildings; mandatory quarantine for travelers from affected countries.
- Remaining challenge: water supply problems.

### Economic and fiscal impact (projections and cost estimates)
- Real GDP growth projection: decline from 3 percent in 2019 to no more than 1 percent in 2020.
- Cost of comprehensive response plan: at least FCFA 27 billion.
  - Plan aims: (i) providing medical care of confirmed cases; (ii) improving monitoring system for the country’s main points of entry; (iii) strengthening the capacity of medical staff and facilities.
- Identified fiscal savings target on non-priority expenditures: up to CFAF 6 billion.

### Financing requests and support
- Request to IMF: disbursement of SDR 27.85 million, equivalent to 25 percent of quota, under the exogenous shock window of the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF).
- Requested support: Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust.
- Complementary external partners: World Bank, the European Union, and other development partners to help fill projected external and fiscal financing gaps in 2020.
- Additional actions: mobilize additional grant financing from development partners; identify other potential savings on non-priority spending.

### Policy commitments and governance
- Continued commitment to the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) objectives: maintenance of macroeconomic stability, debt sustainability, and restoration of sustained inclusive growth.
- Policy priorities: enhance domestic revenue mobilization, strengthen public financial management, enhance governance and the business environment.
- Commitment not to introduce measures that would exacerbate balance of payments difficulties (e.g., exchange and trade restrictions).
- Cooperation with IMF on any updated safeguards assessment of the BEAC.
- Assurance of effective use of additional external financing for crisis-related needs and undertaking an independent audit of crisis-mitigation spending after the crisis, with results to be published.

*Source: IMF staff projections; Letter of Intent, Bangui, April 9, 2020.*

### 7.      We intend to publish the IMF staff report, including this letter of intent. We, therefore,

### Central African Republic — Request for Disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility — Debt Sustainability Analysis

### Summary and risk assessment
- Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis prepared under the revised LIC-DSF Framework (2017).
- Risk of external debt distress: High.
- Overall risk of debt distress: High.
- Granularity in the risk rating: Sustainable.
- Application of judgement: No.
- Mechanical risk rating under the external DSA: High.
- Mechanical risk rating under the public DSA: High.
- Composite indicator score: 2.44 (based on October 2019 WEO and the 2018 CPIA), signaling a weak debt-carrying capacity.
- Key judgment: Debt projected to remain sustainable over the medium term provided authorities implement policies and structural reforms committed under the ECF arrangement once COVID-19 effects wear off.
- Recommendation: Government’s investment program requires grant financing, with concessional debt financing to be considered in exceptional cases.

### Macroeconomic framework and assumptions
- The DSA update reflects the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: significant decline in growth and trade flows, sizeable widening of the fiscal and current account deficits in 2020, and partial rebound in 2021 as normalization begins in the second half of 2020.
- Financing strategy: Seek additional grant financing from multilateral and bilateral donors to cover residual financing gaps.
- Real GDP growth (percent): 2017: 4.5; 2018: 3.8; 2019: 3.0; 2020: 1.0; 2021: 4.0; 2022: 5.0; 2023: 5.0; 2024: 5.0; 2025: 5.0; 2030: 3.4; 2040: 3.4.
- GDP deflator in US dollar terms (change in percent): 2017: 8.6; 2018: 6.0; 2019: -2.9; 2020: 1.8; 2021: 3.5; 2022: 3.0; 2023: 2.8; 2024: 2.7; 2025: 2.7; 2030: 2.5; 2040: 2.5.
- Effective interest rate (percent): 2017: 0.4; 2018: 0.5; 2019: 0.4; 2020: 0.4; 2021: 0.4; 2022: 0.4; 2023: 0.5; 2024: 0.6; 2025: 0.6; 2030: 0.8; 2040: 1.1.
- Growth of exports of G&S (US$ terms, percent): 2017: 0.3; 2018: 10.2; 2019: -1.3; 2020: -6.1; 2021: 10.3; 2022: 10.2; 2023: 7.9; 2024: 8.3; 2025: 8.2; 2030: 6.2; 2040: 6.2.
- Growth of imports of G&S (US$ terms, percent): 2017: 6.8; 2018: 14.6; 2019: 1.0; 2020: -4.3; 2021: 4.2; 2022: 5.8; 2023: 6.1; 2024: 7.0; 2025: 7.2; 2030: 6.0; 2040: 6.0.
- Government revenues (excluding grants, percent of GDP): 2017: 7.8; 2018: 8.9; 2019: 8.7; 2020: 8.5; 2021: 10.3; 2022: 10.6; 2023: 10.7; 2024: 10.9; 2025: 11.1; 2030: 12.1; 2040: 14.0.
- Aid flows (in Million of U.S. dollars): 2017: 14,434.2; 2018: 24,576.8; 2019: 9,719.7; 2020: 283.5; 2021: 230.0; 2022: 220.0; 2023: 210.3; 2024: 217.5; 2025: 230.9; 2030: 226.3; 2040: 164.9.
- Grant-equivalent financing (percent of GDP): 2020: 12.8; 2021: 9.3; 2022: 8.3; 2023: 7.8; 2024: 7.8; 2025: 7.8; 2030: 5.9; 2040: 2.6.
- Grant-equivalent financing (percent of external financing): 2020: 80.1; 2021: 88.9; 2022: 88.4; 2023: 89.7; 2024: 87.2; 2025: 85.3; 2030: 80.4; 2040: 64.2.

### Debt stocks, projections, and key sustainability indicators
- External debt (nominal, percent of GDP): 2017: 35.4; 2018: 37.2; 2019: 37.2; 2020: 39.7; 2021: 38.0; 2022: 35.7; 2023: 33.8; 2024: 32.3; 2025: 31.1; 2030: 29.1; 2040: 27.4.
- Of which: public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) follows same series as external debt above.
- Change in external debt (percent of GDP): 2017: 0.4; 2018: 1.8; 2019: 0.0; 2020: 2.5; 2021: -1.7; 2022: -2.2; 2023: -1.9; 2024: -1.5; 2025: -1.1; 2030: 0.1; 2040: -0.1.
- Non-interest current account deficit (percent of GDP): 2017: 7.7; 2018: 7.8; 2019: 4.8; 2020: 5.5; 2021: 5.1; 2022: 5.1; 2023: 5.6; 2024: 5.6; 2025: 5.5; 2030: 2.8; 2040: 2.7.
- Deficit in balance of goods and services (percent of GDP): 2017: 16.4; 2018: 17.8; 2019: 18.3; 2020: 17.3; 2021: 15.9; 2022: 15.0; 2023: 14.5; 2024: 14.2; 2025: 14.0; 2030: 8.8; 2040: 8.5.
- Exports (percent of GDP): 2017: 15.9; 2018: 15.9; 2019: 15.7; 2020: 14.4; 2021: 14.7; 2022: 15.0; 2023: 15.0; 2024: 15.0; 2025: 15.1; 2030: 15.2; 2040: 15.5.
- Imports (percent of GDP): 2017: 32.4; 2018: 33.7; 2019: 34.1; 2020: 31.7; 2021: 30.6; 2022: 30.0; 2023: 29.5; 2024: 29.3; 2025: 29.1; 2030: 24.0; 2040: 24.0.
- Net current transfers (negative = inflow, percent of GDP): 2017: -8.8; 2018: -9.9; 2019: -13.6; 2020: -11.8; 2021: -10.8; 2022: -9.9; 2023: -8.9; 2024: -8.5; 2025: -8.3; 2030: -7.3; 2040: -5.8.
- Net FDI (negative = inflow, percent of GDP): 2017: -0.8; 2018: -0.8; 2019: -1.1; 2020: -0.4; 2021: -1.0; 2022: -1.4; 2023: -1.5; 2024: -1.5; 2025: -1.5; 2030: -1.8; 2040: -2.3.
- PV of PPG external debt-to-GDP ratio (percent): 2020: 18.6; 2021: 21.1; 2022: 20.8; 2023: 20.0; 2024: 19.0; 2025: 17.9; 2030: 14.5; 2040: 17.0.
- PV of PPG external debt-to-exports ratio (percent): 2020: 118.3; 2021: 147.2; 2022: 141.2; 2023: 133.4; 2024: 126.7; 2025: 119.0; 2030: 95.4; 2040: 109.7.
- PPG debt service-to-exports ratio (percent): 2017: 1.8; 2018: 3.8; 2019: 3.6; 2020: 7.2; 2021: 6.9; 2022: 8.4; 2023: 9.1; 2024: 11.5; 2025: 12.3; 2030: 8.0; 2040: 6.3.
- PPG debt service-to-revenue ratio (percent): 2017: 3.7; 2018: 6.8; 2019: 6.6; 2020: 12.1; 2021: 9.8; 2022: 11.9; 2023: 12.7; 2024: 15.8; 2025: 16.7; 2030: 10.1; 2040: 7.0.
- Gross external financing need (Million of U.S. dollars): 2017: 148.9; 2018: 173.3; 2019: 96.3; 2020: 143.2; 2021: 127.7; 2022: 134.4; 2023: 161.2; 2024: 186.1; 2025: 199.6; 2030: 104.8; 2040: 116.5.
- Nominal GDP (Million of US dollars): 2017: 2,072; 2018: 2,280; 2019: 2,279; 2020: 2,345; 2021: 2,525; 2022: 2,732; 2023: 2,948; 2024: 3,178; 2025: 3,427; 2030: 4,858; 2040: 8,687.
- PV of PPG external debt (Million of US dollars): 2019: 424.5; 2020: 495.9; 2021: 524.7; 2022: 545.9; 2023: 559.4; 2024: 569.0; 2025: 580.1; 2030: 704.7; 2040: 1,477.5.

### Stress tests, sensitivity analysis, and scenarios
- High uncertainty around macroeconomic projections and COVID-19 impacts; liquidity indicators are expected to breach thresholds more sharply with the RCF disbursement.
- Table 3 highlights sensitivity of PV of debt-to-GDP, PV of debt-to-exports, debt service-to-exports, and other indicators under:
  - Alternative scenarios (A1: historical averages; A2: December 2019 DSA).
  - Bound tests (B1: Real GDP growth, B2: Primary balance, B3: Exports, B4: Other flows, B5: One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation, B6: Combination).
  - Tailored tests (C1: Combined contingent liabilities; C2: Natural disaster; C3: Commodity price; C4: Market financing).
- Example sensitivity outcomes (PV of external PPG debt-to-GDP ratio, percent):
  - Baseline 2020–2030 series (selected): 2020: 21.1; 2021: 20.8; 2022: 20.0; 2023: 19.0; 2024: 17.9; 2025: 16.9; 2030: 14.5.
  - A1 (historical averages) 2020–2030 series (selected): 2020: 21.1; 2021: 22.8; 2022: 24.3; 2023: 25.3; 2024: 26.0; 2025: 26.8; 2030: 39.7.
  - B6 (Combination of shocks) 2020–2030 series (selected): 2020: 21.1; 2021: 31.2; 2022: 36.2; 2023: 34.5; 2024: 32.7; 2025: 31.0; 2030: 25.8.
- Stress-test design notes:
  - Most extreme shock: the stress test yielding the highest ratio on or before 2030 (one-off breaches may be presented but deemed away for mechanical signals).
  - Additional financing needs generated by shocks are assumed to be covered by PPG external MLT debt in the external DSA.

### Public sector DSA (baseline and sensitivity)
- Public sector debt (percent of GDP): 2017: 50.3; 2018: 50.0; 2019: 47.8; 2020: 47.1; 2021: 44.5; 2022: 41.5; 2023: 39.3; 2024: 37.5; 2025: 36.1; 2030: 30.6; 2040: 28.7.
- Change in public sector debt (percent of GDP): 2017: -3.6; 2018: -0.2; 2019: -2.2; 2020: -0.7; 2021: -2.6; 2022: -3.0; 2023: -2.3; 2024: -1.7; 2025: -1.5; 2030: -0.3; 2040: -0.1.
- Identified debt-creating flows and primary balance (percent of GDP): primary deficit series includes 2017: 0.7; 2018: 0.6; 2019: -1.8; 2020: 1.8; 2021: -0.7; 2022: 0.1; 2023: 0.9; 2024: 1.2; 2025: 1.4; 2030: 1.1; 2040: 1.2.
- Revenue and grants (percent of GDP): 2017: 12.8; 2018: 16.6; 2019: 18.3; 2020: 19.6; 2021: 18.9; 2022: 18.3; 2023: 17.5; 2024: 17.4; 2025: 17.3; 2030: 16.7; 2040: 15.9.
- Grants (percent of GDP): 2017: 5.0; 2018: 7.8; 2019: 9.6; 2020: 11.0; 2021: 8.7; 2022: 7.6; 2023: 6.8; 2024: 6.5; 2025: 6.3; 2030: 4.7; 2040: 1.9.
- PV of public debt-to-GDP ratio (percent): 2020: 29.4; 2021: 28.5; 2022: 27.3; 2023: 25.7; 2024: 24.4; 2025: 23.2; 2030: 21.8; 2040: 15.9.
- PV of public debt-to-revenue and grants ratio (percent): 2020: 160.4; 2021: 145.6; 2022: 144.1; 2023: 141.0; 2024: 139.6; 2025: 133.2; 2030: 126.0; 2040: 95.4.
- Debt service-to-revenue and grants ratio (percent): 2017: 9.2; 2018: 18.6; 2019: 17.1; 2020: 20.9; 2021: 10.1; 2022: 12.2; 2023: 14.5; 2024: 19.5; 2025: 23.1; 2030: 13.6; 2040: 9.3.
- Gross financing need (percent of GDP): 2017: 1.7; 2018: 3.4; 2019: 1.4; 2020: 5.7; 2021: 1.2; 2022: 2.3; 2023: 3.4; 2024: 4.5; 2025: 5.3; 2030: 3.4; 2040: 2.6.

### Drivers, risks, and policy implications
- Key drivers of adverse debt dynamics: COVID-19 shock to growth and trade, volatile security environment, sizeable contingent liabilities, high sensitivity of debt indicators to standard stress tests, and weak liquidity indicators.
- Liquidity/breaches: Disbursement under the RCF is projected to accentuate breaches of liquidity indicators over the medium term.
- Policy implications:
  - Prioritize grant financing for the government’s investment program.
  - Consider concessional debt financing only in exceptional cases.
  - Implement committed ECF policies and structural reforms once pandemic effects wane to maintain debt sustainability.
- Outlook caveat: Macroeconomic projections and policy responses to COVID-19 are rapidly evolving and risks are heavily tilted to the downside.

*Prepared by the staffs of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Development Association (IDA); approved April 13, 2020.*

### 1. The  authorities  of  the  Central  African  Republic (C.A.R.)  are  grateful  to  Executive

### The  authorities  of  the  Central  African  Republic (C.A.R.)  are  grateful  to  Executive

### Developments Prior to the COVID-19 Pandemic
- Real GDP growth: 3.0 percent in 2019, down from 3.8 percent in 2018.
- Sector drivers: higher diamond and gold output; lower cotton and coffee production.
- Inflation: remained below the regional convergence threshold of 3.0 percent.
- Current account deficit: declined to 5.6 percent of GDP in 2019 from 8.0 percent in 2018.
- Overall fiscal balance (excluding grants): improved in 2019.
- Public debt: 48.0 percent of GDP in 2019, down from 50.0 percent in 2018.
- Banking sector: well capitalized, profitable, and liquid.
  - Non-performing loans: declined from 19.1 percent in August-2019 to 12.6 percent at end-2019.
- Medium-term growth projection: GDP growth projected to 5.0 percent supported by mining and energy improvements.
- Political context: recovery and peacebuilding under the February 2019 Political Agreement for Peace and Reconciliation; presidential and legislative elections scheduled for December 2020.
- Social challenge: need to resettle a high number of refugees displaced during the insecurity period.

### Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Policy Responses
- Confirmed COVID-19 cases: 12 individuals as of April 16, 2020.
- Containment measures implemented: closures of borders and schools, travel restrictions, interdiction of large gatherings, promotion of good hygiene practices.
- Response plan (prepared with WHO):
  - Objectives: ensure medical treatment to infected people, enhance control at main borders, strengthen the healthcare system.
  - Cost: CFAF 27 billion (2 percent of GDP).
  - Constraints: important infrastructure challenges, including in water supply, which alter the effectiveness of the plan.
- Macroeconomic impact and outlook revisions:
  - 2020 GDP growth projection: revised downward to 1.0 percent.
  - Inflation projection: will increase to 3.5 percent.
  - External account: expected to deteriorate due to reduced financial flows, creating a large external financing gap.
  - Fiscal impact: primary domestic deficit will widen on account of lower revenues and higher health-related spending, creating substantial financing needs.
- Authorities’ fiscal policy stance:
  - Commitment to prudent macroeconomic policies and structural reforms under the ECF arrangement (improve domestic revenue mobilization, strengthen public financial management, enhance governance and business climate).
  - Fiscal loosening envisaged to accommodate pandemic-related expenditures.
  - Planned savings: government will save up to 0.5 percent of GDP or CFA 6 billion on non-priority spending.
  - Targeting: assistance to vulnerable segments will be scaled up as additional partner support becomes available.
- Monetary and financial measures (regional):
  - BEAC measures: lowered policy rates, increased liquidity provision, expanded range of financial collaterals for refinancing, reduced cost of bank services.
  - COBAC measures: strengthening supervision to preserve financial stability.

### Request for Financing Under the RCF
- Financing request: disbursement under the exogenous shock window of the Rapid Credit Facility equivalent to 25 percent of the country’s quota or SDR 27.85 million.
- Purpose: to cover part of the significant financing needs created by the pandemic.
- Debt and repayment implications:
  - The disbursement will not affect the country’s high risk of debt distress rating.
  - Capacity to repay the Fund is considered as adequate.
- Debt sustainability and creditor engagement: authorities determined to pursue satisfactory agreements with all bilateral creditors to improve debt sustainability.
- Complementary support: anticipated support from the World Bank and the European Union will complement RCF resources.
- Funding gap: more external assistance in the form of grants and concessional financing is needed to close financing gaps.

### Conclusion and Authorities’ Request
- The COVID-19 pandemic has added important needs to C.A.R. and is threatening recovery and peacebuilding efforts from a very fragile situation.
- Authorities’ appeal: request Executive Board approval of emergency financing to strengthen health system capacities and cope with the pandemic.
- Expected benefits: emergency financing will help lay the foundation for pursuing macroeconomic stability and inclusive growth after the pandemic subsides.

*Source: 1cafea2020002 - 1. The  authorities  of  the  Central  African  Republic (C.A.R.)  are  grateful  to  Executive*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2020/english/1cafea2020002.pdf_